arXiv subjects

Matteo Cinelli

Publications and source records attributed to Matteo Cinelli.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Lack of evidence for correlation between COVID-19 infodemic and vaccine acceptance

How information consumption affects behaviour is an open and widely debated research question. A popular hypothesis states that the so-called infodemic has a substantial impact on orienting individual decisions. A competing hypothesis stresses that exposure to vast amounts of even contradictory information has little effect on personal choices. The COVID-19 pandemic offered an opportunity to investigate this relationship, analysing the interplay between COVID-19 related information circulation and the propensity of users to get vaccinated. We analyse the vaccine infodemics on Twitter and Facebook by looking at 146M contents produced by 20M accounts between 1 January 2020 and 30 April 2021. We find that vaccine-related news triggered huge interest through social media, affecting attention patterns and the modality in which information was spreading. However, we observe that such a tumultuous information landscape translated only in minimal variations in overall vaccine acceptance as measured by Facebook's daily COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey (previously known as COVID-19 World Symptoms Survey) on a sample of 1.6M users. Notably, the observation period includes the European Medicines Agency (EMA) investigations over blood clots cases potentially related to vaccinations, a series of events that could have eroded trust in vaccination campaigns. We conclude the paper by investigating the numerical correlation between various infodemics indices and vaccine acceptance, observing strong compatibility with a null model. This finding supports the hypothesis that altered information consumption patterns are not a reliable predictor of collective behavioural change. Instead, wider attention on social media seems to resolve in polarisation, with the vaccine-prone and the vaccine-hesitant maintaining their positions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Information Consumption and Social Response in a Segregated Environment: the Case of Gab

Most of the information operations involve users who may foster polarization and distrust toward science and mainstream journalism, without these users being conscious of their role. Gab is well known to be an extremist-friendly platform that performs little control on the posted content. Thus it represents an ideal benchmark for studying phenomena potentially related to polarization such as misinformation spreading. The combination of these factors may lead to hate as well as to episodes of harm in the real world. In this work we provide a characterization of the interaction patterns within Gab around the COVID-19 topic. To assess the spreading of different content type, we analyze consumption patterns based on both interaction type and source reliability. Overall we find that there are no strong statistical differences in the social response to questionable and reliable content, both following a power law distribution. However, questionable and reliable sources display structural and topical differences in the use of hashtags. The commenting behaviour of users in terms of both lifetime and sentiment reveals that questionable and reliable posts are perceived in the same manner. We can conclude that despite evident differences between questionable and reliable posts Gab users do not perform such a differentiation thus treating them as a whole. Our results provide insights toward the understanding of coordinated inauthentic behavior and on the early-warning of information operation.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

News consumption and social media regulations policy

Users online tend to consume information adhering to their system of beliefs and to ignore dissenting information. During the COVID-19 pandemic, users get exposed to a massive amount of information about a new topic having a high level of uncertainty. In this paper, we analyze two social media that enforced opposite moderation methods, Twitter and Gab, to assess the interplay between news consumption and content regulation concerning COVID-19. We compare the two platforms on about three million pieces of content analyzing user interaction with respect to news articles. We first describe users' consumption patterns on the two platforms focusing on the political leaning of news outlets. Finally, we characterize the echo chamber effect by modeling the dynamics of users' interaction networks. Our results show that the presence of moderation pursued by Twitter produces a significant reduction of questionable content, with a consequent affiliation towards reliable sources in terms of engagement and comments. Conversely, the lack of clear regulation on Gab results in the tendency of the user to engage with both types of content, showing a slight preference for the questionable ones which may account for a dissing/endorsement behavior. Twitter users show segregation towards reliable content with a uniform narrative. Gab, instead, offers a more heterogeneous structure where users, independently of their leaning, follow people who are slightly polarized towards questionable news.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Online Hate: Behavioural Dynamics and Relationship with Misinformation

Online debates are often characterised by extreme polarisation and heated discussions among users. The presence of hate speech online is becoming increasingly problematic, making necessary the development of appropriate countermeasures. In this work, we perform hate speech detection on a corpus of more than one million comments on YouTube videos through a machine learning model fine-tuned on a large set of hand-annotated data. Our analysis shows that there is no evidence of the presence of "serial haters", intended as active users posting exclusively hateful comments. Moreover, coherently with the echo chamber hypothesis, we find that users skewed towards one of the two categories of video channels (questionable, reliable) are more prone to use inappropriate, violent, or hateful language within their opponents community. Interestingly, users loyal to reliable sources use on average a more toxic language than their counterpart. Finally, we find that the overall toxicity of the discussion increases with its length, measured both in terms of number of comments and time. Our results show that, coherently with Godwin's law, online debates tend to degenerate towards increasingly toxic exchanges of views.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Entropy and complexity unveil the landscape of memes evolution

On the Internet, information circulates fast and widely, and the form of content adapts to comply with users' cognitive abilities. Memes are an emerging aspect of the internet system of signification, and their visual schemes evolve by adapting to a heterogeneous context. A fundamental question is whether they present culturally and temporally transcendent characteristics in their organizing principles. In this work, we study the evolution of 2 million visual memes from Reddit over ten years, from 2011 to 2020, in terms of their statistical complexity and entropy. We find support for the hypothesis that memes are part of an emerging form of internet metalanguage: on one side, we observe an exponential growth with a doubling time of approximately 6 months; on the other side, the complexity of memes contents increases, allowing and adapting to represent social trends and attitudes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Time, Space and Social Interactions: Exit Mechanisms for the Covid-19 Epidemics

We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that an early lockdown shifts the epidemic in time, while that beyond a critical value of the lockdown strength, the epidemic tend to restart after lifting the restrictions. As a consequence, specific mitigation strategies must be introduced. We characterize the relative importance of different broad strategies by accounting for two fundamental sources of heterogeneity, i.e. geography and demography. First, we consider Italian regions as separate administrative entities, in which social interactions between age classs occur. Due to the sparsity of the inter-regional mobility matrix, once started the epidemics tend to develop independently across areas, justifying the adoption of solutions specific to individual regions or to clusters of regions. Second, we show that social contacts between age classes play a fundamental role and that measures which take into account the age structure of the population can provide a significant contribution to mitigate the rebound effects. Our model is general, and while it does not analyze specific mitigation strategies, it highlights the relevance of some key parameters on non-pharmaceutical mitigation mechanisms for the epidemics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Network constraints on the mixing patterns of binary node metadata

We consider the network constraints on the bounds of the assortativity coefficient, which measures the tendency of nodes with the same attribute values to be interconnected. The assortativity coefficient is the Pearson's correlation coefficient of node attribute values across network edges and ranges between -1 and 1. We focus here on the assortativity of binary node attributes and show that properties of the network, such as degree distribution and the number of nodes with each attribute value place constraints upon the attainable values of the assortativity coefficient. We explore the assortativity in three different spaces, that is, ensembles of graph configurations and node-attribute assignments that are valid for a given set of network constraints. We provide means for obtaining bounds on the extremal values of assortativity for each of these spaces. Finally, we demonstrate that under certain conditions the network constraints severely limit the maximum and minimum values of assortativity, which may present issues in how we interpret the assortativity coefficient.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Lexical convergence and collective identities on Facebook

Recent studies, targeting Facebook, showed the tendency of users to interact with information adhering to their preferred narrative and to ignore dissenting information. Primarily driven by confirmation bias, users tend to join polarized clusters where they cooperate to reinforce a like-minded system of beliefs, thus facilitating fake news and misinformation cascades. To gain a deeper understanding of these phenomena, in this work we analyze the lexicons used by the communities of users emerging on Facebook around verified and unverified contents. We show how the lexical approach provides important insights about the kind of information processed by the two communities of users and about their overall sentiment. Furthermore, by focusing on comment threads, we observe a strong positive correlation between the lexical convergence of co-commenters and their number of interactions, which in turns suggests that such a trend could be a proxy for the emergence of collective identities and polarization in opinion dynamics.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Human Mobility in Response to COVID-19 in France, Italy and UK

The policies implemented to hinder the COVID-19 outbreak represent one of the largest critical events in history. The understanding of this process is fundamental for crafting and tailoring post-disaster relief. In this work we perform a massive data analysis, through geolocalized data from 13M Facebook users, on how such a stress affected mobility patterns in France, Italy and UK. We find that the general reduction of the overall efficiency in the network of movements is accompanied by geographical fragmentation with a massive reduction of long-range connections. The impact, however, differs among nations according to their initial mobility structure. Indeed, we find that the mobility network after the lockdown is more concentrated in the case of France and UK and more distributed in Italy. Such a process can be approximated through percolation to quantify the substantial impact of the lockdown.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Echo Chambers on Social Media: A comparative analysis

Recent studies have shown that online users tend to select information adhering to their system of beliefs, ignore information that does not, and join groups - i.e., echo chambers - around a shared narrative. Although a quantitative methodology for their identification is still missing, the phenomenon of echo chambers is widely debated both at scientific and political level. To shed light on this issue, we introduce an operational definition of echo chambers and perform a massive comparative analysis on more than 1B pieces of contents produced by 1M users on four social media platforms: Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, and Gab. We infer the leaning of users about controversial topics - ranging from vaccines to abortion - and reconstruct their interaction networks by analyzing different features, such as shared links domain, followed pages, follower relationship and commented posts. Our method quantifies the existence of echo-chambers along two main dimensions: homophily in the interaction networks and bias in the information diffusion toward likely-minded peers. We find peculiar differences across social media. Indeed, while Facebook and Twitter present clear-cut echo chambers in all the observed dataset, Reddit and Gab do not. Finally, we test the role of the social media platform on news consumption by comparing Reddit and Facebook. Again, we find support for the hypothesis that platforms implementing news feed algorithms like Facebook may elicit the emergence of echo-chambers.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Evidence of economic segregation from mobility lockdown during COVID-19 epidemic

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, National governments have applied lockdown restrictions to reduce the infection rate. We perform a massive analysis on near real-time Italian data provided by Facebook to investigate how lockdown strategies affect economic conditions of individuals and local governments. We model the change in mobility as an exogenous shock similar to a natural disaster. We identify two ways through which mobility restrictions affect Italian citizens. First, we find that the impact of lockdown is stronger in municipalities with higher fiscal capacity. Second, we find a segregation effect, since mobility restrictions are stronger in municipalities for which inequality is higher and where individuals have lower income per capita.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

The COVID-19 Social Media Infodemic

We address the diffusion of information about the COVID-19 with a massive data analysis on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, Reddit and Gab. We analyze engagement and interest in the COVID-19 topic and provide a differential assessment on the evolution of the discourse on a global scale for each platform and their users. We fit information spreading with epidemic models characterizing the basic reproduction numbers $R_0$ for each social media platform. Moreover, we characterize information spreading from questionable sources, finding different volumes of misinformation in each platform. However, information from both reliable and questionable sources do not present different spreading patterns. Finally, we provide platform-dependent numerical estimates of rumors' amplification.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

The interconnectedness of the economic content in the speeches of the US Presidents

The speeches stated by influential politicians can have a decisive impact on the future of a country. In particular, the economic content of such speeches affects the economy of countries and their financial markets. For this reason, we examine a novel dataset containing the economic content of 951 speeches stated by 45 US Presidents from George Washington (April 1789) to Donald Trump (February 2017). In doing so, we use an economic glossary carried out by means of text mining techniques. The goal of our study is to examine the structure of significant interconnections within a network obtained from the economic content of presidential speeches. In such a network, nodes are represented by talks and links by values of cosine similarity, the latter computed using the occurrences of the economic terms in the speeches. The resulting network displays a peculiar structure made up of a core (i.e. a set of highly central and densely connected nodes) and a periphery (i.e. a set of non-central and sparsely connected nodes). The presence of different economic dictionaries employed by the Presidents characterize the core-periphery structure. The Presidents' talks belonging to the network's core share the usage of generic (non-technical) economic locutions like "interest" or "trade". While the use of more technical and less frequent terms characterizes the periphery (e.g. "yield" ). Furthermore, the speeches close in time share a common economic dictionary. These results together with the economics glossary usages during the US periods of boom and crisis provide unique insights on the economic content relationships among Presidents' speeches.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2019

(Mis)Information Operations: An Integrated Perspective

The massive diffusion of social media fosters disintermediation and changes the way users are informed, the way they process reality, and the way they engage in public debate. The cognitive layer of users and the related social dynamics define the nature and the dimension of informational threats. Users show the tendency to interact with information adhering to their preferred narrative and to ignore dissenting information. Confirmation bias seems to account for users decisions about consuming and spreading content; and, at the same time, aggregation of favored information within those communities reinforces group polarization. In this work, the authors address the problem of (mis)information operations with a holistic and integrated approach. Cognitive weakness induced by this new information environment are considered. Moreover, (mis)information operations, with particular reference to the Italian context, are considered; and the fact that the phenomenon is more complex than expected is highlighted. The paper concludes by providing an integrated research roadmap accounting for the possible future technological developments.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

Drifts and Shifts: Characterizing the Evolution of Users Interests on Reddit

Selective exposure is the main driver for the economy of attention when consuming online content. We select information adhering to our system of beliefs and ignore dissenting information. However, even personal interest is likely to play a role in determining our attention patterns. To understand in more detail the dynamics of interest-driven choices, we address the evolution of users' interest on Reddit by means of an analysis on more than 7 million of users. We observe that the lifetime distribution of users on subreddits (online thematic communities) is 'short' with respect to the observation period. Furthermore, users tend to be active on a very limited number of subreddits with respect to the wide offer of the platform. These aspects indicate the presence of a migrating behavior of users among subreddits. To characterize this phenomenon we propose a metric based on a geometrical encoding of the 'interest space' of the user. The movement of users across subreddits is characterized by a bursty trend, made of sudden variations. The most frequent of them take place between recreational subreddits and those more related to news and politics. We describe this kind of activity with two behaviors called interest drift and interest shift. Our results suggest that selective exposure and personal interest coexist in driving content consumption.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

The Limited Reach of Fake News on Twitter during 2019 European Elections

The advent of social media changed the way we consume content favoring a disintermediated access and production. This scenario has been matter of critical discussion about its impact on society. Magnified in the case of Arab Spring or heavily criticized in the Brexit and 2016 U.S. elections. In this work we explore information consumption on Twitter during the last European electoral campaign by analyzing the interaction patterns of official news sources, fake news sources, politicians, people from the showbiz and many others. We extensively explore interactions among different classes of accounts in the months preceding the last European elections, held between 23rd and 26th of May, 2019. We collected almost 400,000 tweets posted by 863 accounts having different roles in the public society. Through a thorough quantitative analysis we investigate the information flow among them, also exploiting geolocalized information. Accounts show the tendency to confine their interaction within the same class and the debate rarely crosses national borders. Moreover, we do not find any evidence of an organized network of accounts aimed at spreading disinformation. Instead, disinformation outlets are largely ignored by the other actors and hence play a peripheral role in online political discussions.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Recursive patterns in online echo chambers

Despite their playful purpose social media changed the way users access information, debate, and form their opinions. Recent studies, indeed, showed that users online tend to promote their favored narratives and thus to form polarized groups around a common system of beliefs. Confirmation bias helps to account for users decisions about whether to spread content, thus creating informational cascades within identifiable communities. At the same time, aggregation of favored information within those communities reinforces selective exposure and group polarization. Along this path, through a thorough quantitative analysis we approach connectivity patterns over 1.2M of Facebook users engaged with two very conflicting narratives: scientific and conspiracy news. Analyzing such data, we quantitatively investigate the effect of two mechanisms (namely challenge avoidance and reinforcement seeking) behind confirmation bias, one of the major drivers of human behavior in social media. We find that challenge avoidance mechanism triggers the emergence of two distinct and polarized groups of users (i.e., echo chambers) who also tend to be surrounded by friends having similar systems of beliefs. Through a network based approach, we show how the reinforcement seeking mechanism limits the influence of neighbors and primarily drives the selection and diffusion of contents even among like-minded users, thus fostering the formation of highly polarized sub-clusters within the same echo chamber. Finally, we show that polarized users reinforce their preexisting beliefs by leveraging the activity of their like-minded neighbors, and this trend grows with the user engagement suggesting how peer influence acts as a support for reinforcement seeking.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Selective Exposure shapes the Facebook News Diet

The social brain hypothesis fixes to 150 the number of social relationships we are able to maintain. Similar cognitive constraints emerge in several aspects of our daily life, from our mobility up to the way we communicate, and might even affect the way we consume information online. Indeed, despite the unprecedented amount of information we can access online, our attention span still remains limited. Furthermore, recent studies showed the tendency of users to ignore dissenting information but to interact with information adhering to their point of view. In this paper, we quantitatively analyze users' attention economy in news consumption on social media by analyzing 14M users interacting with 583 news outlets (pages) on Facebook over a time span of 6 years. In particular, we explore how users distribute their activity across news pages and topics. We find that, independently of their activity, users show the tendency to follow a very limited number of pages. On the other hand, users tend to interact with almost all the topics presented by their favored pages. Finally, we introduce a taxonomy accounting for users behavior to distinguish between patterns of selective exposure and interest. Our findings suggest that segregation of users in echo chambers might be an emerging effect of users' activity on social media and that selective exposure -- i.e. the tendency of users to consume information interest coherent with their preferences -- could be a major driver in their consumption patterns.

cs.SI↗