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Matthew B. A. McDermott

Publications and source records attributed to Matthew B. A. McDermott.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Efficient Generative Prediction for EHR Foundation Models: The SCOPE and REACH Estimators

Generative foundation models trained on tokenized electronic health record (EHR) timelines show promise for clinical outcome prediction via Monte Carlo sampling of simulated future trajectories. However, this approach suffers from three coupled limitations: sparse estimate distributions that poorly differentiate patient risk levels, extreme computational cost, and high sampling variance. We propose two new estimators that leverage next-token probability distributions underutilized by standard Monte Carlo: the Sum of Conditional Outcome Probability Estimator (SCOPE) and Risk Estimation from Anticipated Conditional Hazards (REACH). We prove both are unbiased, that REACH guarantees variance reduction over Monte Carlo for any model and outcome, and that REACH is a Rao-Blackwellization of any naive importance sampling scheme that preserves the non-outcome token distribution. Empirically, across $11$ clinically important outcomes in MIMIC-IV and the UChicago health system, SCOPE and REACH match $100$-sample Monte Carlo accuracy with median token reductions of $2.5\times$ to $3.4\times$ and reductions exceeding $80\times$ for the rarest outcomes, with calibration preserved throughout. Because SCOPE reuses a single sampled pool across an arbitrary number of outcomes at no marginal generation cost while REACH provides a per-task variance guarantee, the two estimators are complementary in deployment and together meaningfully reduce the inference budget required for generative EHR foundation models, particularly for rare, high-impact outcomes in healthcare.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2025

Beyond the Clinic: A Large-Scale Evaluation of Augmenting EHR with Wearable Data for Diverse Health Prediction

Electronic health records (EHRs) provide a powerful basis for predicting the onset of health outcomes. Yet EHRs primarily capture in-clinic events and miss aspects of daily behavior and lifestyle containing rich health information. Consumer wearables, by contrast, continuously measure activity, heart rate, and sleep, and more, offering complementary signals that can fill this gap. Despite this potential, there has been little systematic evaluation of the benefit that wearable data can bring to health outcome prediction on top of EHRs. In this study, we present an extensible framework for multimodal health outcome prediction that integrates EHR and wearable data streams. Using data from the All of Us Program, we systematically compared the combination of different encoding methods on EHR and wearable data, including the traditional feature engineering approach, as well as foundation model embeddings. Across ten clinical outcomes, wearable integration consistently improved model performance relative to EHR-only baselines, e.g., average delta AUROC +6.8% for major depressive disorder, +9.7% for hypertension, and +12.6% for diabetes. On average across all ten outcomes, fusing EHRs with wearable features shows 8.5% improvement in AUROC. To our knowledge, this is the first large-scale evaluation of wearable-EHR fusion, underscoring the utility of wearable-derived signals in complementing EHRs and enabling more holistic, personalized health outcome predictions. Meanwhile, our analysis elucidates future directions for optimizing foundation models for wearable data and its integration with EHR data.

q-bio.QM↗
arXiv2025

Reflections from Research Roundtables at the Conference on Health, Inference, and Learning (CHIL) 2025

The 6th Annual Conference on Health, Inference, and Learning (CHIL 2025), hosted by the Association for Health Learning and Inference (AHLI), was held in person on June 25-27, 2025, at the University of California, Berkeley, in Berkeley, California, USA. As part of this year's program, we hosted Research Roundtables to catalyze collaborative, small-group dialogue around critical, timely topics at the intersection of machine learning and healthcare. Each roundtable was moderated by a team of senior and junior chairs who fostered open exchange, intellectual curiosity, and inclusive engagement. The sessions emphasized rigorous discussion of key challenges, exploration of emerging opportunities, and collective ideation toward actionable directions in the field. In total, eight roundtables were held by 19 roundtable chairs on topics of "Explainability, Interpretability, and Transparency," "Uncertainty, Bias, and Fairness," "Causality," "Domain Adaptation," "Foundation Models," "Learning from Small Medical Data," "Multimodal Methods," and "Scalable, Translational Healthcare Solutions."

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Foundation Model of Electronic Medical Records for Adaptive Risk Estimation

Hospitals struggle to predict critical outcomes. Traditional early warning systems, like NEWS and MEWS, rely on static variables and fixed thresholds, limiting their adaptability, accuracy, and personalization. We previously developed the Enhanced Transformer for Health Outcome Simulation (ETHOS), an AI model that tokenizes patient health timelines (PHTs) from EHRs and uses transformer-based architectures to predict future PHTs. ETHOS is a versatile framework for developing a wide range of applications. In this work, we develop the Adaptive Risk Estimation System (ARES) that leverages ETHOS to compute dynamic, personalized risk probabilities for clinician-defined critical events. ARES also features a personalized explainability module that highlights key clinical factors influencing risk estimates. We evaluated ARES using the MIMIC-IV v2.2 dataset together with its Emergency Department (ED) extension and benchmarked performance against both classical early warning systems and contemporary machine learning models. The entire dataset was tokenized resulting in 285,622 PHTs, comprising over 360 million tokens. ETHOS outperformed benchmark models in predicting hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and prolonged stays, achieving superior AUC scores. Its risk estimates were robust across demographic subgroups, with calibration curves confirming model reliability. The explainability module provided valuable insights into patient-specific risk factors. ARES, powered by ETHOS, advances predictive healthcare AI by delivering dynamic, real-time, personalized risk estimation with patient-specific explainability. Although our results are promising, the clinical impact remains uncertain. Demonstrating ARES's true utility in real-world settings will be the focus of our future work. We release the source code to facilitate future research.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

ACES: Automatic Cohort Extraction System for Event-Stream Datasets

Reproducibility remains a significant challenge in machine learning (ML) for healthcare. Datasets, model pipelines, and even task or cohort definitions are often private in this field, leading to a significant barrier in sharing, iterating, and understanding ML results on electronic health record (EHR) datasets. We address a significant part of this problem by introducing the Automatic Cohort Extraction System (ACES) for event-stream data. This library is designed to simultaneously simplify the development of tasks and cohorts for ML in healthcare and also enable their reproduction, both at an exact level for single datasets and at a conceptual level across datasets. To accomplish this, ACES provides: (1) a highly intuitive and expressive domain-specific configuration language for defining both dataset-specific concepts and dataset-agnostic inclusion or exclusion criteria, and (2) a pipeline to automatically extract patient records that meet these defined criteria from real-world data. ACES can be automatically applied to any dataset in either the Medical Event Data Standard (MEDS) or Event Stream GPT (ESGPT) formats, or to *any* dataset in which the necessary task-specific predicates can be extracted in an event-stream form. ACES has the potential to significantly lower the barrier to entry for defining ML tasks in representation learning, redefine the way researchers interact with EHR datasets, and significantly improve the state of reproducibility for ML studies using this modality. ACES is available at: https://github.com/justin13601/aces.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

A Closer Look at AUROC and AUPRC under Class Imbalance

In machine learning (ML), a widespread claim is that the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) is a superior metric for model comparison to the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for tasks with class imbalance. This paper refutes this notion on two fronts. First, we theoretically characterize the behavior of AUROC and AUPRC in the presence of model mistakes, establishing clearly that AUPRC is not generally superior in cases of class imbalance. We further show that AUPRC can be a harmful metric as it can unduly favor model improvements in subpopulations with more frequent positive labels, heightening algorithmic disparities. Next, we empirically support our theory using experiments on both semi-synthetic and real-world fairness datasets. Prompted by these insights, we conduct a review of over 1.5 million scientific papers to understand the origin of this invalid claim, finding that it is often made without citation, misattributed to papers that do not argue this point, and aggressively over-generalized from source arguments. Our findings represent a dual contribution: a significant technical advancement in understanding the relationship between AUROC and AUPRC and a stark warning about unchecked assumptions in the ML community.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

meds_reader: A fast and efficient EHR processing library

The growing demand for machine learning in healthcare requires processing increasingly large electronic health record (EHR) datasets, but existing pipelines are not computationally efficient or scalable. In this paper, we introduce meds_reader, an optimized Python package for efficient EHR data processing that is designed to take advantage of many intrinsic properties of EHR data for improved speed. We then demonstrate the benefits of meds_reader by reimplementing key components of two major EHR processing pipelines, achieving 10-100x improvements in memory, speed, and disk usage. The code for meds_reader can be found at https://github.com/som-shahlab/meds_reader.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

MEDS-Tab: Automated tabularization and baseline methods for MEDS datasets

Effective, reliable, and scalable development of machine learning (ML) solutions for structured electronic health record (EHR) data requires the ability to reliably generate high-quality baseline models for diverse supervised learning tasks in an efficient and performant manner. Historically, producing such baseline models has been a largely manual effort--individual researchers would need to decide on the particular featurization and tabularization processes to apply to their individual raw, longitudinal data; and then train a supervised model over those data to produce a baseline result to compare novel methods against, all for just one task and one dataset. In this work, powered by complementary advances in core data standardization through the MEDS framework, we dramatically simplify and accelerate this process of tabularizing irregularly sampled time-series data, providing researchers the ability to automatically and scalably featurize and tabularize their longitudinal EHR data across tens of thousands of individual features, hundreds of millions of clinical events, and diverse windowing horizons and aggregation strategies, all before ultimately leveraging these tabular data to automatically produce high-caliber XGBoost baselines in a highly computationally efficient manner. This system scales to dramatically larger datasets than tabularization tools currently available to the community and enables researchers with any MEDS format dataset to immediately begin producing reliable and performant baseline prediction results on various tasks, with minimal human effort required. This system will greatly enhance the reliability, reproducibility, and ease of development of powerful ML solutions for health problems across diverse datasets and clinical settings.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Event Stream GPT: A Data Pre-processing and Modeling Library for Generative, Pre-trained Transformers over Continuous-time Sequences of Complex Events

Generative, pre-trained transformers (GPTs, a.k.a. "Foundation Models") have reshaped natural language processing (NLP) through their versatility in diverse downstream tasks. However, their potential extends far beyond NLP. This paper provides a software utility to help realize this potential, extending the applicability of GPTs to continuous-time sequences of complex events with internal dependencies, such as medical record datasets. Despite their potential, the adoption of foundation models in these domains has been hampered by the lack of suitable tools for model construction and evaluation. To bridge this gap, we introduce Event Stream GPT (ESGPT), an open-source library designed to streamline the end-to-end process for building GPTs for continuous-time event sequences. ESGPT allows users to (1) build flexible, foundation-model scale input datasets by specifying only a minimal configuration file, (2) leverage a Hugging Face compatible modeling API for GPTs over this modality that incorporates intra-event causal dependency structures and autoregressive generation capabilities, and (3) evaluate models via standardized processes that can assess few and even zero-shot performance of pre-trained models on user-specified fine-tuning tasks.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

Structure Inducing Pre-Training

Language model pre-training and derived methods are incredibly impactful in machine learning. However, there remains considerable uncertainty on exactly why pre-training helps improve performance for fine-tuning tasks. This is especially true when attempting to adapt language-model pre-training to domains outside of natural language. Here, we analyze this problem by exploring how existing pre-training methods impose relational structure in their induced per-sample latent spaces -- i.e., what constraints do pre-training methods impose on the distance or geometry between the pre-trained embeddings of two samples $\vec x_i$ and $\vec x_j$. Through a comprehensive review of existing pre-training methods, we find that this question remains open. This is true despite theoretical analyses demonstrating the importance of understanding this form of induced structure. Based on this review, we introduce a descriptive framework for pre-training that allows for a granular, comprehensive understanding of how relational structure can be induced. We present a theoretical analysis of this framework from first principles and establish a connection between the relational inductive bias of pre-training and fine-tuning performance. We also show how to use the framework to define new pre-training methods. We build upon these findings with empirical studies on benchmarks spanning 3 data modalities and ten fine-tuning tasks. These experiments validate our theoretical analyses, inform the design of novel pre-training methods, and establish consistent improvements over a compelling suite of baseline methods.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2021

Adversarial Contrastive Pre-training for Protein Sequences

Recent developments in Natural Language Processing (NLP) demonstrate that large-scale, self-supervised pre-training can be extremely beneficial for downstream tasks. These ideas have been adapted to other domains, including the analysis of the amino acid sequences of proteins. However, to date most attempts on protein sequences rely on direct masked language model style pre-training. In this work, we design a new, adversarial pre-training method for proteins, extending and specializing similar advances in NLP. We show compelling results in comparison to traditional MLM pre-training, though further development is needed to ensure the gains are worth the significant computational cost.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2020

ML4H Abstract Track 2020

A collection of the accepted abstracts for the Machine Learning for Health (ML4H) workshop at NeurIPS 2020. This index is not complete, as some accepted abstracts chose to opt-out of inclusion.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2020

Cross-modal representation alignment of molecular structure and perturbation-induced transcriptional profiles

Modeling the relationship between chemical structure and molecular activity is a key goal in drug development. Many benchmark tasks have been proposed for molecular property prediction, but these tasks are generally aimed at specific, isolated biomedical properties. In this work, we propose a new cross-modal small molecule retrieval task, designed to force a model to learn to associate the structure of a small molecule with the transcriptional change it induces. We develop this task formally as multi-view alignment problem, and present a coordinated deep learning approach that jointly optimizes representations of both chemical structure and perturbational gene expression profiles. We benchmark our results against oracle models and principled baselines, and find that cell line variability markedly influences performance in this domain. Our work establishes the feasibility of this new task, elucidates the limitations of current data and systems, and may serve to catalyze future research in small molecule representation learning.

q-bio.QM↗
arXiv2020

MIMIC-Extract: A Data Extraction, Preprocessing, and Representation Pipeline for MIMIC-III

Robust machine learning relies on access to data that can be used with standardized frameworks in important tasks and the ability to develop models whose performance can be reasonably reproduced. In machine learning for healthcare, the community faces reproducibility challenges due to a lack of publicly accessible data and a lack of standardized data processing frameworks. We present MIMIC-Extract, an open-source pipeline for transforming raw electronic health record (EHR) data for critical care patients contained in the publicly-available MIMIC-III database into dataframes that are directly usable in common machine learning pipelines. MIMIC-Extract addresses three primary challenges in making complex health records data accessible to the broader machine learning community. First, it provides standardized data processing functions, including unit conversion, outlier detection, and aggregating semantically equivalent features, thus accounting for duplication and reducing missingness. Second, it preserves the time series nature of clinical data and can be easily integrated into clinically actionable prediction tasks in machine learning for health. Finally, it is highly extensible so that other researchers with related questions can easily use the same pipeline. We demonstrate the utility of this pipeline by showcasing several benchmark tasks and baseline results.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2020

A Comprehensive Evaluation of Multi-task Learning and Multi-task Pre-training on EHR Time-series Data

Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning technique aiming to improve model performance by leveraging information across many tasks. It has been used extensively on various data modalities, including electronic health record (EHR) data. However, despite significant use on EHR data, there has been little systematic investigation of the utility of MTL across the diverse set of possible tasks and training schemes of interest in healthcare. In this work, we examine MTL across a battery of tasks on EHR time-series data. We find that while MTL does suffer from common negative transfer, we can realize significant gains via MTL pre-training combined with single-task fine-tuning. We demonstrate that these gains can be achieved in a task-independent manner and offer not only minor improvements under traditional learning, but also notable gains in a few-shot learning context, thereby suggesting this could be a scalable vehicle to offer improved performance in important healthcare contexts.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2020

CheXpert++: Approximating the CheXpert labeler for Speed,Differentiability, and Probabilistic Output

It is often infeasible or impossible to obtain ground truth labels for medical data. To circumvent this, one may build rule-based or other expert-knowledge driven labelers to ingest data and yield silver labels absent any ground-truth training data. One popular such labeler is CheXpert, a labeler that produces diagnostic labels for chest X-ray radiology reports. CheXpert is very useful, but is relatively computationally slow, especially when integrated with end-to-end neural pipelines, is non-differentiable so can't be used in any applications that require gradients to flow through the labeler, and does not yield probabilistic outputs, which limits our ability to improve the quality of the silver labeler through techniques such as active learning. In this work, we solve all three of these problems with $\texttt{CheXpert++}$, a BERT-based, high-fidelity approximation to CheXpert. $\texttt{CheXpert++}$ achieves 99.81\% parity with CheXpert, which means it can be reliably used as a drop-in replacement for CheXpert, all while being significantly faster, fully differentiable, and probabilistic in output. Error analysis of $\texttt{CheXpert++}$ also demonstrates that $\texttt{CheXpert++}$ has a tendency to actually correct errors in the CheXpert labels, with $\texttt{CheXpert++}$ labels being more often preferred by a clinician over CheXpert labels (when they disagree) on all but one disease task. To further demonstrate the utility of these advantages in this model, we conduct a proof-of-concept active learning study, demonstrating we can improve accuracy on an expert labeled random subset of report sentences by approximately 8\% over raw, unaltered CheXpert by using one-iteration of active-learning inspired re-training. These findings suggest that simple techniques in co-learning and active learning can yield high-quality labelers under minimal, and controllable human labeling demands.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2020

ML4H Abstract Track 2019

A collection of the accepted abstracts for the Machine Learning for Health (ML4H) workshop at NeurIPS 2019. This index is not complete, as some accepted abstracts chose to opt-out of inclusion.

cs.LG↗