arXiv subjects

Matthew Dixon

Publications and source records attributed to Matthew Dixon.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

On the Abuse and Detection of Polyglot Files

A polyglot is a file that is valid in two or more formats. Polyglot files pose a problem for malware detection systems that route files to format-specific detectors/signatures, as well as file upload and sanitization tools. In this work we found that existing file-format and embedded-file detection tools, even those developed specifically for polyglot files, fail to reliably detect polyglot files used in the wild, leaving organizations vulnerable to attack. To address this issue, we studied the use of polyglot files by malicious actors in the wild, finding $30$ polyglot samples and $15$ attack chains that leveraged polyglot files. In this report, we highlight two well-known APTs whose cyber attack chains relied on polyglot files to bypass detection mechanisms. Using knowledge from our survey of polyglot usage in the wild -- the first of its kind -- we created a novel data set based on adversary techniques. We then trained a machine learning detection solution, PolyConv, using this data set. PolyConv achieves a precision-recall area-under-curve score of $0.999$ with an F1 score of $99.20$% for polyglot detection and $99.47$% for file-format identification, significantly outperforming all other tools tested. We developed a content disarmament and reconstruction tool, ImSan, that successfully sanitized $100$% of the tested image-based polyglots, which were the most common type found via the survey. Our work provides concrete tools and suggestions to enable defenders to better defend themselves against polyglot files, as well as directions for future work to create more robust file specifications and methods of disarmament.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2024

Phi-3 Technical Report: A Highly Capable Language Model Locally on Your Phone

We introduce phi-3-mini, a 3.8 billion parameter language model trained on 3.3 trillion tokens, whose overall performance, as measured by both academic benchmarks and internal testing, rivals that of models such as Mixtral 8x7B and GPT-3.5 (e.g., phi-3-mini achieves 69% on MMLU and 8.38 on MT-bench), despite being small enough to be deployed on a phone. Our training dataset is a scaled-up version of the one used for phi-2, composed of heavily filtered publicly available web data and synthetic data. The model is also further aligned for robustness, safety, and chat format. We also provide parameter-scaling results with a 7B, 14B models trained for 4.8T tokens, called phi-3-small, phi-3-medium, both significantly more capable than phi-3-mini (e.g., respectively 75%, 78% on MMLU, and 8.7, 8.9 on MT-bench). To enhance multilingual, multimodal, and long-context capabilities, we introduce three models in the phi-3.5 series: phi-3.5-mini, phi-3.5-MoE, and phi-3.5-Vision. The phi-3.5-MoE, a 16 x 3.8B MoE model with 6.6 billion active parameters, achieves superior performance in language reasoning, math, and code tasks compared to other open-source models of similar scale, such as Llama 3.1 and the Mixtral series, and on par with Gemini-1.5-Flash and GPT-4o-mini. Meanwhile, phi-3.5-Vision, a 4.2 billion parameter model derived from phi-3.5-mini, excels in reasoning tasks and is adept at handling both single-image and text prompts, as well as multi-image and text prompts.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2022

Beyond Surrogate Modeling: Learning the Local Volatility Via Shape Constraints

We explore the abilities of two machine learning approaches for no-arbitrage interpolation of European vanilla option prices, which jointly yield the corresponding local volatility surface: a finite dimensional Gaussian process (GP) regression approach under no-arbitrage constraints based on prices, and a neural net (NN) approach with penalization of arbitrages based on implied volatilities. We demonstrate the performance of these approaches relative to the SSVI industry standard. The GP approach is proven arbitrage-free, whereas arbitrages are only penalized under the SSVI and NN approaches. The GP approach obtains the best out-of-sample calibration error and provides uncertainty quantification.The NN approach yields a smoother local volatility and a better backtesting performance, as its training criterion incorporates a local volatility regularization term.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2022

MS-nowcasting: Operational Precipitation Nowcasting with Convolutional LSTMs at Microsoft Weather

We present the encoder-forecaster convolutional long short-term memory (LSTM) deep-learning model that powers Microsoft Weather's operational precipitation nowcasting product. This model takes as input a sequence of weather radar mosaics and deterministically predicts future radar reflectivity at lead times up to 6 hours. By stacking a large input receptive field along the feature dimension and conditioning the model's forecaster with predictions from the physics-based High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, we are able to outperform optical flow and HRRR baselines by 20-25% on multiple metrics averaged over all lead times.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

A Unified Bayesian Framework for Pricing Catastrophe Bond Derivatives

Catastrophe (CAT) bond markets are incomplete and hence carry uncertainty in instrument pricing. As such various pricing approaches have been proposed, but none treat the uncertainty in catastrophe occurrences and interest rates in a sufficiently flexible and statistically reliable way within a unifying asset pricing framework. Consequently, little is known empirically about the expected risk-premia of CAT bonds. The primary contribution of this paper is to present a unified Bayesian CAT bond pricing framework based on uncertainty quantification of catastrophes and interest rates. Our framework allows for complex beliefs about catastrophe risks to capture the distinct and common patterns in catastrophe occurrences, and when combined with stochastic interest rates, yields a unified asset pricing approach with informative expected risk premia. Specifically, using a modified collective risk model -- Dirichlet Prior-Hierarchical Bayesian Collective Risk Model (DP-HBCRM) framework -- we model catastrophe risk via a model-based clustering approach. Interest rate risk is modeled as a CIR process under the Bayesian approach. As a consequence of casting CAT pricing models into our framework, we evaluate the price and expected risk premia of various CAT bond contracts corresponding to clustering of catastrophe risk profiles. Numerical experiments show how these clusters reveal how CAT bond prices and expected risk premia relate to claim frequency and loss severity.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2021

Information-Corrected Estimation: A Generalization Error Reducing Parameter Estimation Method

Modern computational models in supervised machine learning are often highly parameterized universal approximators. As such, the value of the parameters is unimportant, and only the out of sample performance is considered. On the other hand much of the literature on model estimation assumes that the parameters themselves have intrinsic value, and thus is concerned with bias and variance of parameter estimates, which may not have any simple relationship to out of sample model performance. Therefore, within supervised machine learning, heavy use is made of ridge regression (i.e., L2 regularization), which requires the the estimation of hyperparameters and can be rendered ineffective by certain model parameterizations. We introduce an objective function which we refer to as Information-Corrected Estimation (ICE) that reduces KL divergence based generalization error for supervised machine learning. ICE attempts to directly maximize a corrected likelihood function as an estimator of the KL divergence. Such an approach is proven, theoretically, to be effective for a wide class of models, with only mild regularity restrictions. Under finite sample sizes, this corrected estimation procedure is shown experimentally to lead to significant reduction in generalization error compared to maximum likelihood estimation and L2 regularization.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2020

Deep Local Volatility

Deep learning for option pricing has emerged as a novel methodology for fast computations with applications in calibration and computation of Greeks. However, many of these approaches do not enforce any no-arbitrage conditions, and the subsequent local volatility surface is never considered. In this article, we develop a deep learning approach for interpolation of European vanilla option prices which jointly yields the full surface of local volatilities. We demonstrate the modification of the loss function or the feed forward network architecture to enforce (hard constraints approach) or favor (soft constraints approach) the no-arbitrage conditions and we specify the experimental design parameters that are needed for adequate performance. A novel component is the use of the Dupire formula to enforce bounds on the local volatility associated with option prices, during the network fitting. Our methodology is benchmarked numerically on real datasets of DAX vanilla options.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2020

G-Learner and GIRL: Goal Based Wealth Management with Reinforcement Learning

We present a reinforcement learning approach to goal based wealth management problems such as optimization of retirement plans or target dated funds. In such problems, an investor seeks to achieve a financial goal by making periodic investments in the portfolio while being employed, and periodically draws from the account when in retirement, in addition to the ability to re-balance the portfolio by selling and buying different assets (e.g. stocks). Instead of relying on a utility of consumption, we present G-Learner: a reinforcement learning algorithm that operates with explicitly defined one-step rewards, does not assume a data generation process, and is suitable for noisy data. Our approach is based on G-learning - a probabilistic extension of the Q-learning method of reinforcement learning. In this paper, we demonstrate how G-learning, when applied to a quadratic reward and Gaussian reference policy, gives an entropy-regulated Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR). This critical insight provides a novel and computationally tractable tool for wealth management tasks which scales to high dimensional portfolios. In addition to the solution of the direct problem of G-learning, we also present a new algorithm, GIRL, that extends our goal-based G-learning approach to the setting of Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) where rewards collected by the agent are not observed, and should instead be inferred. We demonstrate that GIRL can successfully learn the reward parameters of a G-Learner agent and thus imitate its behavior. Finally, we discuss potential applications of the G-Learner and GIRL algorithms for wealth management and robo-advising.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2019

Gaussian Process Regression for Derivative Portfolio Modeling and Application to CVA Computations

Modeling counterparty risk is computationally challenging because it requires the simultaneous evaluation of all the trades with each counterparty under both market and credit risk. We present a multi-Gaussian process regression approach, which is well suited for OTC derivative portfolio valuation involved in CVA computation. Our approach avoids nested simulation or simulation and regression of cash flows by learning a Gaussian metamodel for the mark-to-market cube of a derivative portfolio. We model the joint posterior of the derivatives as a Gaussian process over function space, with the spatial covariance structure imposed on the risk factors. Monte-Carlo simulation is then used to simulate the dynamics of the risk factors. The uncertainty in portfolio valuation arising from the Gaussian process approximation is quantified numerically. Numerical experiments demonstrate the accuracy and convergence properties of our approach for CVA computations, including a counterparty portfolio of interest rate swaps.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2019

"Quantum Equilibrium-Disequilibrium": Asset Price Dynamics, Symmetry Breaking, and Defaults as Dissipative Instantons

We propose a simple non-equilibrium model of a financial market as an open system with a possible exchange of money with an outside world and market frictions (trade impacts) incorporated into asset price dynamics via a feedback mechanism. Using a linear market impact model, this produces a non-linear two-parametric extension of the classical Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, that we call the "Quantum Equilibrium-Disequilibrium" (QED) model. The QED model gives rise to non-linear mean-reverting dynamics, broken scale invariance, and corporate defaults. In the simplest one-stock (1D) formulation, our parsimonious model has only one degree of freedom, yet calibrates to both equity returns and credit default swap spreads. Defaults and market crashes are associated with dissipative tunneling events, and correspond to instanton (saddle-point) solutions of the model. When market frictions and inflows/outflows of money are neglected altogether, "classical" GBM scale-invariant dynamics with an exponential asset growth and without defaults are formally recovered from the QED dynamics. However, we argue that this is only a formal mathematical limit, and in reality the GBM limit is non-analytic due to non-linear effects that produce both defaults and divergence of perturbation theory in a small market friction parameter.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2018

Bitcoin Risk Modeling with Blockchain Graphs

A key challenge for Bitcoin cryptocurrency holders, such as startups using ICOs to raise funding, is managing their FX risk. Specifically, a misinformed decision to convert Bitcoin to fiat currency could, by itself, cost USD millions. In contrast to financial exchanges, Blockchain based crypto-currencies expose the entire transaction history to the public. By processing all transactions, we model the network with a high fidelity graph so that it is possible to characterize how the flow of information in the network evolves over time. We demonstrate how this data representation permits a new form of microstructure modeling - with the emphasis on the topological network structures to study the role of users, entities and their interactions in formation and dynamics of crypto-currency investment risk. In particular, we identify certain sub-graphs ('chainlets') that exhibit predictive influence on Bitcoin price and volatility, and characterize the types of chainlets that signify extreme losses.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2017

OSTSC: Over Sampling for Time Series Classification in R

The OSTSC package is a powerful oversampling approach for classifying univariant, but multinomial time series data in R. This article provides a brief overview of the oversampling methodology implemented by the package. A tutorial of the OSTSC package is provided. We begin by providing three test cases for the user to quickly validate the functionality in the package. To demonstrate the performance impact of OSTSC, we then provide two medium size imbalanced time series datasets. Each example applies a TensorFlow implementation of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) classifier - a type of a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) classifier - to imbalanced time series. The classifier performance is compared with and without oversampling. Finally, larger versions of these two datasets are evaluated to demonstrate the scalability of the package. The examples demonstrate that the OSTSC package improves the performance of RNN classifiers applied to highly imbalanced time series data. In particular, OSTSC is observed to increase the AUC of LSTM from 0.543 to 0.784 on a high frequency trading dataset consisting of 30,000 time series observations.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2017

Classification-based Financial Markets Prediction using Deep Neural Networks

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are powerful types of artificial neural networks (ANNs) that use several hidden layers. They have recently gained considerable attention in the speech transcription and image recognition community (Krizhevsky et al., 2012) for their superior predictive properties including robustness to overfitting. However their application to algorithmic trading has not been previously researched, partly because of their computational complexity. This paper describes the application of DNNs to predicting financial market movement directions. In particular we describe the configuration and training approach and then demonstrate their application to backtesting a simple trading strategy over 43 different Commodity and FX future mid-prices at 5-minute intervals. All results in this paper are generated using a C++ implementation on the Intel Xeon Phi co-processor which is 11.4x faster than the serial version and a Python strategy backtesting environment both of which are available as open source code written by the authors.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2010

Error Control of Iterative Linear Solvers for Integrated Groundwater Models

An open problem that arises when using modern iterative linear solvers, such as the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) method or Generalized Minimum RESidual method (GMRES) is how to choose the residual tolerance in the linear solver to be consistent with the tolerance on the solution error. This problem is especially acute for integrated groundwater models which are implicitly coupled to another model, such as surface water models, and resolve both multiple scales of flow and temporal interaction terms, giving rise to linear systems with variable scaling. This article uses the theory of 'forward error bound estimation' to show how rescaling the linear system affects the correspondence between the residual error in the preconditioned linear system and the solution error. Using examples of linear systems from models developed using the USGS GSFLOW package and the California State Department of Water Resources' Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM), we observe that this error bound guides the choice of a practical measure for controlling the error in rescaled linear systems. It is found that forward error can be controlled in preconditioned GMRES by rescaling the linear system and normalizing the stopping tolerance. We implemented a preconditioned GMRES algorithm and benchmarked it against the Successive-Over-Relaxation (SOR) method. Improved error control reduces redundant iterations in the GMRES algorithm and results in overall simulation speedups as large as 7.7x. This research is expected to broadly impact groundwater modelers through the demonstration of a practical approach for setting the residual tolerance in line with the solution error tolerance.

math.NA↗

arXiv2008

Conservative Properties of the Variational Free-Lagrange Method for Shallow Water

The variational free-Lagrange (VFL) method for shallow water is a free-Lagrange method with the additional property that it preserves the variational structure of shallow water. The VFL method was first derived in this context by \cite{AUG84} who discretized Hamilton's action principle with a free-Lagrange data structure. The purpose of this article is to assess the long-time conservation properties of the VFL method for regularized shallow water which are useful for climate simulation. Long-time regularized shallow water simulations show that the VFL method exhibits no secular drift in the (i) energy error through the application of symplectic integrators; and (ii) the potential vorticity error through the construction of discrete curl, divergence and gradient operators which satisfy semi-discrete divergence and potential vorticity conservation laws. These diagnostic semi-discrete equations augment the description of the VFL method by characterizing the evolution of its respective irrotational and solenoidal components in the Lagrangian frame. Like the continuum equations, the former exhibits a $\text{div}^2\mathbf{U}$ term which indicates that the flow has a very strong tendency towards a purely rotational state. Numerical results show (i) the preservation of shape and strength of an initially radially symmetric vortex pair in purely rotational regularized shallow water and (ii) how the Voronoi diagram retains the history of the flow field and (iii) that energy is conserved to $\mathcal{O}(\Delta^2)$ and potential vorticity error to within 5% with no secular growth over a 50 year period.

math.NA↗