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Matthew Kerr

Publications and source records attributed to Matthew Kerr.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Inference on inner galaxy structure via gravitational waves from supermassive binaries

The detection of a stochastic gravitational wave background by pulsar-timing arrays indicates the presence of a population of supermassive black hole binaries. Although the observed spectrum generally matches predictions for orbital evolution driven by gravitational-wave emission in circular orbits, there is a preference for a spectral turnover at the lowest observed frequencies, which may point to substantial hardening during a transition from early environmental influences to later stages dominated by emission. In the vicinity of these binaries, the ejection of stars or dark matter particles through gravitational three-body slingshots efficiently extracts orbital energy, leading to a low-frequency turnover in the spectrum. Here we model how the gravitational-wave spectrum depends on the initial inner galactic profile before scouring by binary ejections while accounting for a range of initial binary eccentricities. By analysing the NANOGrav 15-year data, we find that a parsec-scale galactic-centre density of around $10^6 M_{\odot} \mathrm{pc}^{-3}$ is favoured across most of the parameter space, thus shedding light on the environmental effects that shape black hole evolution and the combined matter density near galaxy centres.

astro-ph.HE

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Piecewise Power-Law Reconstruction of the Gravitational-Wave Background

The NANOGrav 15-year (NG15) data set provides evidence for a gravitational-wave background (GWB) signal at nanohertz frequencies, which is expected to originate either from a cosmic population of inspiraling supermassive black-hole binaries or new particle physics in the early Universe. A firm identification of the source of the NG15 signal requires an accurate reconstruction of its frequency spectrum. In this paper, we provide such a spectral characterization of the NG15 signal based on a piecewise power-law (PPL) ansatz that strikes a balance between existing alternatives in the literature. Our PPL reconstruction is more flexible than the standard constant-power-law model, which describes the GWB spectrum in terms of only two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index gamma. Concurrently, it better approximates physically realistic GWB spectra -- especially those of cosmological origin -- than the free spectral model, since the latter allows for arbitrary variations in the GWB amplitude from one frequency bin to the next. Our PPL reconstruction of the NG15 signal relies on individual PPL models with a fixed number of internal nodes (i.e., constant power law, broken power law, doubly broken power law, etc.) that are ultimately combined in a Bayesian model average. The data products resulting from our analysis provide the basis for fast refits of spectral GWB models.

astro-ph.HE

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Targeted Searches for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

We present the first targeted searches for continuous gravitational waves (CWs) from 114 active galactic nuclei (AGN) that may host supermassive black hole binaries, using the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. By incorporating electromagnetic priors on sky location, distance, redshift, and CW frequency, our strain and chirp mass upper limits are typically improved by a factor of $\sim 2$ (median 2.2) relative to all-sky limits at the same frequency. Bayesian comparisons against a model including only a Hellings-Downs correlated background disfavors a CW signal for all targets, with a mean Bayes factor of $0.73 \pm 0.32$. Two targets have Bayes factors slightly above unity, but coherence tests, random targeting experiments, and a conservative accounting of the 114-target trials factor all indicate that they are consistent with noise. We use these two candidates as worked examples to illustrate an end-to-end targeted CW search analysis and a suite of follow up tests that future promising candidates would need to pass. We find that the electromagnetic interpretations of both candidates are ambiguous, and we update the constraints on a putative binary in 3C 66B, ruling out part of its previously allowed parameter space. Ultimately, our results demonstrate the current sensitivity of targeted pulsar timing array searches for CWs and define a roadmap for future multimessenger CW detections.

astro-ph.HE

Future Space-based Gamma-ray Pulsar Timing Arrays

Radio pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments using millisecond pulsars (MSPs) are beginning to detect nHz gravitational waves (GWs). MSPs are bright GeV gamma-ray emitters, and all-sky monitoring of about 100 MSPs with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) has enabled a gamma-ray Pulsar Timing Array. The GPTA provides a complementary view of nHz GWs because its MSP sample is different, and because the gamma-ray data are immune to plasma propagation effects, have minimal data gaps, and rely on homogeneous instrumentation. To assess GPTA performance for future gamma-ray observatories, we simulated the population of Galactic MSPs and developed a high-fidelity method to predict their gamma-ray spectra. This combination reproduces the properties of the LAT MSP sample, validating it for future population studies. We determined the expected signal from the simulated gamma-ray MSPs for instrument concepts with a wide range of capabilities. We found that the optimal GPTA energy range runs about 0.1 to 5 GeV, but we also examined Compton/MeV instruments. With the caveat that the MSP spectra models are extrapolated beyond observational constraints, we found low signal-to-background ratios, yielding few MSP detections. GeV-band concepts would detect 10$^3$ to 10$^4$ MSPs and achieve GW sensitivity on par with and surpassing the current generation of radio PTAs, reaching the GW self-noise regime. When considering two possible scenarios for the formation of MSPs in the Galactic bulge, the collective signal from which is a potential source of an excess GeV signal observed towards the Galactic center, we find that most of the concepts can both detect this bulge population and distinguish the production channel. In summary, the high discovery potential, strong GW performance, and tremendous synergy with radio PTAs all argue for the pursuit of next-generation gamma-ray pulsar timing.

astro-ph.HE

A NICER view of the 1.4 solar-mass edge-on pulsar PSR J0614-3329

Four neutron star radius measurements have already been obtained by modeling the X-ray pulses of rotation-powered millisecond pulsars observed by the Neutron Star Interior Composition ExploreR (NICER). We report here the radius measurement of PSR J0614-3329 employing the same method with NICER and XMM-Newton data using Bayesian Inference. For all different models tested, including one with unrestricted inclination prior, we retrieve very similar non-antipodal hot regions geometries and radii. For the preferred model, we infer an equatorial radius of $R_{\rm eq}=10.29^{+1.01}_{-0.86}\,$km for a mass of $M=1.44^{+0.06}_{-0.07} \, M_{\odot}$ (median values with equal-tailed $68\%$ credible interval), the latter being essentially constrained from radio timing priors obtained by MeerKAT. A more complex model, fitting the data equally well, resulted in a consistent inferred radius. We find that, for all different models, the pulse emission originates from two hot regions, one at the pole and the other at the equator. The resulting radius constraint is consistent with previous X-ray and gravitational wave measurements of neutron stars in the same mass range. Equation of state inferences, including previous NICER and gravitational wave results, slightly soften the equation of state with PSR J0614$-$3329 included and shift the allowed mass-radius region toward lower radii by $\sim 300\,$m, which is compatible with previous analyses to within less than one standard deviation.

astro-ph.HE

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Gravitational Scattering of Pulsars by Free-Floating Objects in Interstellar Space

Free-floating objects (FFOs) in interstellar space$-$rogue planets, brown dwarfs, and large asteroids that are not gravitationally bound to any star$-$are expected to be ubiquitous throughout the Milky Way. Recent microlensing surveys have discovered several free-floating planets that are not bound to any known stellar systems. Additionally, three interstellar objects, namely 1I/'Oumuamua, 2I/Borisov, and 3I/ATLAS, have been detected passing through our solar system on hyperbolic trajectories. In this work, we search for FFOs on hyperbolic orbits that pass near millisecond pulsars (MSPs), where their gravitational influence can induce detectable perturbations in pulse arrival times. Using the NANOGrav 15-year narrowband dataset, which contains high-precision timing data for 68 MSPs, we conduct a search for such hyperbolic scattering events between FFOs and pulsars. Although no statistically significant events were detected, this non-detection enables us to place upper limits on the number density of FFOs as a function of their mass within our local region of the Galaxy. For example, the upper limit on the number density for Jupiter-mass FFOs ($\sim 10^{-2.5} - 10^{-3.5}~M_{\odot}$) obtained from different pulsars ranges from $5.25\times10^{6}~\text{pc}^{-3}$ to $5.37\times10^{9}~\text{pc}^{-3}$, while the upper limit calculated by combining results from all the pulsars is $6.03\times10^{5}~\text{pc}^{-3}$. These results represent the first constraints on FFO population derived from pulsar timing data.

astro-ph.HE

Inferring Mbh-Mbulge Evolution from the Gravitational Wave Background

We test the impact of an evolving supermassive black hole (SMBH) mass scaling relation (Mbh-Mbulge) on the predictions for the gravitational wave background (GWB). The observed GWB amplitude is 2-3 times higher than predicted by astrophysically informed models which suggests the need to revise the assumptions in those models. We compare a semi-analytic model's ability to reproduce the observed GWB spectrum with a static versus evolving-amplitude Mbh-Mbulge relation. We additionally consider the influence of the choice of galaxy stellar mass function on the modeled GWB spectra. Our models are able to reproduce the GWB amplitude with either a large number density of massive galaxies or a positively evolving Mbh-Mbulge amplitude (i.e., the Mbh / Mbulge ratio was higher in the past). If we assume that the Mbh-Mbulge amplitude does not evolve, our models require a galaxy stellar mass function that implies an undetected population of massive galaxies (Mstellar > 10^11 Msun at z > 1). When the Mbh-Mbulge amplitude is allowed to evolve, we can model the GWB spectrum with all fiducial values and an Mbh-Mbulge amplitude that evolves as alpha(z) = alpha_0 (1 + z)^(1.04 +/- 0.5).

astro-ph.HE

The NANOGrav 15-Year Data Set: Improved Timing Precision With VLBI Astrometric Priors

Accurate pulsar astrometric estimates play an essential role in almost all high-precision pulsar timing experiments. Traditional pulsar timing techniques refine these estimates by including them as free parameters when fitting a model to observed pulse time-of-arrival measurements. However, reliable sub-milliarcsecond astrometric estimations require years of observations and, even then, power from red noise can be inadvertently absorbed into astrometric parameter fits, biasing the resulting estimations and reducing our sensitivity to red noise processes, including gravitational waves (GWs). In this work, we seek to mitigate these shortcomings by using pulsar astrometric estimates derived from Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) as priors for the timing fit. First, we calibrated a frame tie to account for the offsets between the reference frames used in VLBI and timing. Then, we used the VLBI-informed priors and timing-based likelihoods of several astrometric solutions consistent with both techniques to obtain a maximum-posterior astrometric solution. We found offsets between our results and the timing-based astrometric solutions, which, if real, would lead to absorption of spectral power at frequencies of interest for single-source GW searches. However, we do not find significant power absorption due to astrometric fitting at the low-frequency domain of the GW background.

astro-ph.HE

Gamma-ray Pulsar Emission is Mostly Stable on Timescales from Minutes to Years

We present a method for the detection and characterization of random changes in the flux from $γ$-ray pulsars on sub-hour timescales, much shorter than variations that can be accessed using direct flux measurements. Flux variations are a proxy for the variations in spindown power ($\dot{E}$) or particle acceleration, which can be produced by random switches between quasi-stable configurations of the pulsar magnetosphere. This technique therefore probes the stability of pulsar magnetospheres and discrete spindown states on timescales much shorter than can be achieved with pulsar timing. We apply the method to a sample of 115 bright $γ$-ray pulsars, finding no new instances of state changes. We derive the sensitivity of the method and find that, for a wide range of possible state changing models, over a wide range of timescales, we can limit the amplitude of flux ($\dot{E}$) variations to $<$10%. Substantial nulling is excluded in nearly all cases. The best cases limit variations of any sort to $\leq$1%. These results indicate that $γ$-ray pulsar magnetospheres maintain a single configuration or narrow range of configurations with nearly constant power output.

astro-ph.HE

The NANOGrav 15 Yr Data Set: Removing Pulsars One by One from the Pulsar Timing Array

Evidence has emerged for a stochastic signal correlated among 67 pulsars within the 15-year pulsar-timing data set compiled by the NANOGrav collaboration. Similar signals have been found in data from the European, Indian, Parkes, and Chinese PTAs. This signal has been interpreted as indicative of the presence of a nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background. To explore the internal consistency of this result we investigate how the recovered signal strength changes as we remove the pulsars one by one from the data set. We calculate the signal strength using the (noise-marginalized) optimal statistic, a frequentist metric designed to measure correlated excess power in the residuals of the arrival times of the radio pulses. We identify several features emerging from this analysis that were initially unexpected. The significance of these features, however, can only be assessed by comparing the real data to synthetic data sets. After conducting identical analyses on simulated data sets, we do not find anything inconsistent with the presence of a stochastic gravitational wave background in the NANOGrav 15-year data. The methodologies developed here can offer additional tools for application to future, more sensitive data sets. While this analysis provides an internal consistency check of the NANOGrav results, it does not eliminate the necessity for additional investigations that could identify potential systematics or uncover unmodeled physical phenomena in the data.

astro-ph.HE

The NANOGrav 15-year Gravitational-Wave Background Methods

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) use an array of millisecond pulsars to search for gravitational waves in the nanohertz regime in pulse time of arrival data. This paper presents rigorous tests of PTA methods, examining their consistency across the relevant parameter space. We discuss updates to the 15-year isotropic gravitational-wave background analyses and their corresponding code representations. Descriptions of the internal structure of the flagship algorithms Enterprise and PTMCMCSampler are given to facilitate understanding of the PTA likelihood structure, how models are built, and what methods are currently used in sampling the high-dimensional PTA parameter space. We introduce a novel version of the PTA likelihood that uses a two-step marginalization procedure that performs much faster in gravitational wave searches, reducing the required resources facilitating the computation of Bayes factors via thermodynamic integration and sampling a large number of realizations for computing Bayesian false-alarm probabilities. We perform stringent tests of consistency and correctness of the Bayesian and frequentist analysis methods. For the Bayesian analysis, we test prior recovery, simulation recovery, and Bayes factors. For the frequentist analysis, we test that the optimal statistic, when modified to account for a non-negligible gravitational-wave background, accurately recovers the amplitude of the background. We also summarize recent advances and tests performed on the optimal statistic in the literature from both GWB detection and parameter estimation perspectives. The tests presented here validate current analyses of PTA data.

astro-ph.HE

The Anomalous Acceleration of PSR J2043+1711: Long-Period Orbital Companion or Stellar Flyby?

Based on the rate of change of its orbital period, PSR J2043+1711 has a substantial peculiar acceleration of 3.5 $\pm$ 0.8 mm/s/yr, which deviates from the acceleration predicted by equilibrium Milky Way models at a $4σ$ level. The magnitude of the peculiar acceleration is too large to be explained by disequilibrium effects of the Milky Way interacting with orbiting dwarf galaxies ($\sim$1 mm/s/yr), and too small to be caused by period variations due to the pulsar being a redback. We identify and examine two plausible causes for the anomalous acceleration: a stellar flyby, and a long-period orbital companion. We identify a main-sequence star in \textit{Gaia} DR3 and Pan-STARRS DR2 with the correct mass, distance, and on-sky position to potentially explain the observed peculiar acceleration. However, the star and the pulsar system have substantially different proper motions, indicating that they are not gravitationally bound. However, it is possible that this is an unrelated star that just happens to be located near J2043+1711 along our line of sight (chance probability of 1.6\%). Therefore, we also constrain possible orbital parameters for a circumbinary companion in a hierarchical triple system with J2043+1711; the changes in the spindown rate of the pulsar are consistent with an outer object that has an orbital period of 80 kyr, a companion mass of 0.3 $M_\odot$ (indicative of a white dwarf or low-mass star), and a semi-major axis of 2000 AU. Continued timing and/or future faint optical observations of J2043+1711 may eventually allow us to differentiate between these scenarios.

astro-ph.SR

The NANOGrav 15 yr data set: Posterior predictive checks for gravitational-wave detection with pulsar timing arrays

Pulsar-timing-array experiments have reported evidence for a stochastic background of nanohertz gravitational waves consistent with the signal expected from a population of supermassive--black-hole binaries. Their analyses assume power-law spectra for intrinsic pulsar noise and for the background, as well as a Hellings--Downs cross-correlation pattern among the gravitational-wave--induced residuals across pulsars. These assumptions may not be realized in actuality. We test them in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set using Bayesian posterior predictive checks. After fitting our fiducial model to real data, we generate a population of simulated data-set replications. We use the replications to assess whether the optimal-statistic significance, inter-pulsar correlations, and spectral coefficients are extreme. We recover Hellings--Downs correlations in simulated data sets at significance levels consistent with the correlations measured in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. A similar test on spectral coefficients shows that their values in real data are not extreme compared to their distributions across replications. We also evaluate the evidence for the stochastic background using posterior-predictive versions of the frequentist optimal statistic and of Bayesian model comparison, and find comparable significance (3.2 $σ$ and 3 $σ$ respectively) to what was previously reported for the standard statistics. We conclude with novel visualizations of the reconstructed gravitational waveforms that enter the residuals for each pulsar. Our analysis strengthens confidence in the identification and characterization of the gravitational-wave background.

astro-ph.HE

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Gravitational Wave Memory

We present the results of a search for nonlinear gravitational wave memory in the NANOGrav 15-year data set. We find no significant evidence for memory signals in the dataset, with a maximum Bayes factor of 3.1 in favor of a model including memory. We therefore place upper limits on the strain of potential gravitational wave memory events as a function of sky location and observing epoch. We find upper limits that are not always more constraining than previous NANOGrav results. We show that it is likely due to the increase in common red noise between the 12.5-year and 15-year NANOGrav datasets.

gr-qc

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Running of the Spectral Index

The NANOGrav 15-year data provides compelling evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background at nanohertz frequencies. The simplest model-independent approach to characterizing the frequency spectrum of this signal consists in a simple power-law fit involving two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index γ. In this paper, we consider the next logical step beyond this minimal spectral model, allowing for a running (i.e., logarithmic frequency dependence) of the spectral index, γ_run(f) = γ+ β\ln(f/f_ref). We fit this running-power-law (RPL) model to the NANOGrav 15-year data and perform a Bayesian model comparison with the minimal constant-power-law (CPL) model, which results in a 95% credible interval for the parameter βconsistent with no running, β\in [-0.80,2.96], and an inconclusive Bayes factor, B(RPL vs. CPL) = 0.69 +- 0.01. We thus conclude that, at present, the minimal CPL model still suffices to adequately describe the NANOGrav signal; however, future data sets may well lead to a measurement of nonzero β. Finally, we interpret the RPL model as a description of primordial GWs generated during cosmic inflation, which allows us to combine our results with upper limits from big-bang nucleosynthesis, the cosmic microwave background, and LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA.

astro-ph.HE

ComPair-2: A Next Generation Medium Energy Gamma-ray Telescope Prototype

Many questions posed in the Astro2020 Decadal survey in both the New Messengers and New Physics and the Cosmic Ecosystems science themes require a gamma-ray mission with capabilities exceeding those of existing (e.g. Fermi, Swift) and planned (e.g. COSI) observatories. ComPair, the Compton Pair telescope, is a prototype of such a next-generation gamma-ray mission. It had its inaugural balloon flight from Ft. Sumner, New Mexico in August 2023. To continue the goals of the ComPair project to develop technologies that will enable a future gamma-ray mission, the next generation of ComPair (ComPair-2) will be upgraded to increase the sensitivity and low-energy transient capabilities of the instrument. These advancements are enabled by AstroPix, a silicon monolithic active pixel sensor, in the tracker and custom dual-gain silicon photomultipliers and front-end electronics in the calorimeter. This effort builds on design work for the All-sky Medium Energy Gamma-ray Observatory eXplorer (AMEGO-X) concept that was submitted the 2021 MIDEX Announcement of Opportunity. Here we describe the ComPair-2 prototype design and integration and testing plans to advance the readiness level of these novel technologies.

astro-ph.IM

Pulse Profile Variability of PSR J1022+1001 in NANOGrav Data

Pulse profile stability is a central assumption of standard pulsar timing methods. Thus, it is important for pulsar timing array experiments such as the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) to account for any pulse profile variability present in their data sets. We show that in the NANOGrav 15-yr data set, the integrated pulse profile of PSR J1022+1001 as seen by the Arecibo radio telescope at 430, 1380, and 2030 MHz varies considerably in its shape from observation to observation. We investigate the possibility that this is due to the "ideal feed assumption" (IFA), on which NANOGrav's routine polarization calibration procedure relies. PSR J1022+1001 is $\sim 90\%$ polarized in one pulse profile component, and also has significant levels of circular polarization. Time-dependent deviations in the feed's polarimetric response (PR) could cause mixing between the intensity I and the other Stokes parameters, leading to the observed variability. We calibrate the PR using a mixture of Measurement Equation Modeling and Measurement Equation Template Matching techniques. The resulting profiles are no less variable than those calibrated using the IFA method, nor do they provide an improvement in the timing quality of this pulsar. We observe the pulse shape in 25-MHz bandwidths to vary consistently across the band, which cannot be explained by interstellar scintillation in combination with profile evolution with frequency. Instead, we favor phenomena intrinsic to the pulsar as the cause.

astro-ph.HE

A NICER View of PSR J1231$-$1411: A Complex Case

Recent constraints on neutron star mass and radius have advanced our understanding of the equation of state (EOS) of cold dense matter. Some of them have been obtained by modeling the pulses of three millisecond X-ray pulsars observed by the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER). Here, we present a Bayesian parameter inference for a fourth pulsar, PSR J1231$-$1411, using the same technique with NICER and XMM-Newton data. When applying a broad mass-inclination prior from radio timing measurements and the emission region geometry model that can best explain the data, we find likely converged results only when using a limited radius prior. If limiting the radius to be consistent with the previous observational constraints and EOS analyses, we infer the radius to be $12.6 \pm 0.3$ km and the mass to be $1.04_{-0.03}^{+0.05}$ $M_\odot$, each reported as the posterior credible interval bounded by the $16\,\%$ and $84\,\%$ quantiles. If using an uninformative prior but limited between $10$ and $14$ km, we find otherwise similar results, but $R_{\mathrm{eq}} = 13.5_{-0.5}^{+0.3}$ km for the radius. In both cases, we find a nonantipodal hot region geometry where one emitting spot is at the equator or slightly above, surrounded by a large colder region, and where a noncircular hot region lies close to southern rotational pole. If using a wider radius prior, we only find solutions that fit the data significantly worse. We discuss the challenges in finding the better fitting solutions, possibly related to the weak interpulse feature in the pulse profile.

astro-ph.HE