arXiv subjects

Matthew M. Engelhard

Publications and source records attributed to Matthew M. Engelhard.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Integrating Neural Encoders in Bayesian Generalized Linear Mixed Models for Multimodal Data

Scalable Bayesian inference for generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) provides uncertainty-aware analysis of correlated longitudinal data, but existing scalable approaches largely assume low-dimensional tabular predictors and do not directly accommodate high-dimensional modalities such as images and text. We address this limitation by learning one or more modality-specific neural encoders jointly with a GLMM objective, then performing variance-corrected stochasticgradient MCMC for the GLMM parameters conditional on the learned representation. This conditional-Bayes design combines supervised representation learning with posterior uncertainty quantification for population-level effects, subjectspecific heterogeneity, and modality-level random slopes. The resulting model preserves interpretable fixed and random effects for structured covariates and learned modalities while scaling gracefully to large longitudinal datasets. In simulation studies, our method recovers posterior means and variance estimates from full-data MCMC benchmarks after covariance correction. We further evaluate uncertainty through parameter-level interval coverage in simulations and predictive calibration on held-out data. Applications to glaucoma progression and adolescent mental health demonstrate that the framework allows nuanced assessment of the relative importance of each modality on both individual and population levels without sacrificing predictive performance.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Multimodal Training to Unimodal Deployment: Leveraging Unstructured Data During Training to Optimize Structured Data Only Deployment

Unstructured Electronic Health Record (EHR) data, such as clinical notes, contain clinical contextual observations that are not directly reflected in structured data fields. This additional information can substantially improve model learning. However, due to their unstructured nature, these data are often unavailable or impractical to use when deploying a model. We introduce a multimodal learning framework that leverages unstructured EHR data during training while producing a model that can be deployed using only structured EHR data. Using a cohort of 3,466 children evaluated for late talking, we generated note embeddings with BioClinicalBERT and encoded structured embeddings from demographics and medical codes. A note-based teacher model and a structured-only student model were jointly trained using contrastive learning and contrastive knowledge distillation loss, producing a strong classifier (AUROC = 0.985). Our proposed model reached an AUROC of 0.705, outperforming the structured-only baseline of 0.656. These results demonstrate that incorporating unstructured data during training enhances the model's capacity to identify task-relevant information within structured EHR data, enabling a deployable structured-only phenotype model.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Interval-Based AUC (iAUC): Extending ROC Analysis to Uncertainty-Aware Classification

In high-stakes risk prediction, quantifying uncertainty through interval-valued predictions is essential for reliable decision-making. However, standard evaluation tools like the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC) are designed for point scores and fail to capture the impact of predictive uncertainty on ranking performance. We propose an uncertainty-aware ROC framework specifically for interval-valued predictions, introducing two new measures: $AUC_L$ and $AUC_U$. This framework enables an informative three-region decomposition of the ROC plane, partitioning pairwise rankings into correct, incorrect, and uncertain orderings. This approach naturally supports selective prediction by allowing models to abstain from ranking cases with overlapping intervals, thereby optimizing the trade-off between abstention rate and discriminative reliability. We prove that under valid class-conditional coverage, $AUC_L$ and $AUC_U$ provide formal lower and upper bounds on the theoretical optimal AUC ($AUC^*$), characterizing the physical limit of achievable discrimination. The proposed framework applies broadly to interval-valued prediction models, regardless of the interval construction method. Experiments on real-world benchmark datasets, using bootstrap-based intervals as one instantiation, validate the framework's correctness and demonstrate its practical utility for uncertainty-aware evaluation and decision-making.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Double Variable Importance Matching to Estimate Distinct Causal Effects on Event Probability and Timing

In many clinical contexts, estimating effects of treatment in time-to-event data is complicated not only by confounding, censoring, and heterogeneity, but also by the presence of a cured subpopulation in which the event of interest never occurs. In such settings, treatment may have distinct effects on (1) the probability of being cured and (2) the event timing among non-cured individuals. Standard survival analysis and causal inference methods typically do not separate cured from non-cured individuals, obscuring distinct treatment mechanisms on cure probability and event timing. To address these challenges, we propose a matching-based framework that constructs distinct match groups to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) on cure probability and event timing, respectively. We use mixture cure models to identify feature importance for both estimands, which in turn informs weighted distance metrics for matching in high-dimensional spaces. Within matched groups, Kaplan-Meier estimators provide estimates of cure probability and expected time to event, from which individual-level treatment effects are derived. We provide theoretical guarantees for estimator consistency and distance metric optimality under an equal-scale constraint. We further decompose estimation error into contributions from censoring, model fitting, and irreducible noise. Simulations and real-world data analyses demonstrate that our approach delivers interpretable and robust HTE estimates in time-to-event settings.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Borrowing From the Future: Enhancing Early Risk Assessment through Contrastive Learning

Risk assessments for a pediatric population are often conducted across multiple stages. For example, clinicians may evaluate risks prenatally, at birth, and during Well-Child visits. Although predictions made at later stages typically achieve higher precision, it is clinically desirable to make reliable risk assessments as early as possible. Therefore, this study focuses on improving prediction performance in early-stage risk assessments. Our solution, \textbf{Borrowing From the Future (BFF)}, is a contrastive multi-modal framework that treats each time window as a distinct modality. In BFF, a model is trained on all available data throughout the time while performing a risk assessment using up-to-date information. This contrastive framework allows the model to ``borrow'' informative signals from later stages (e.g., Well-Child visits) to implicitly supervise the learning at earlier stages (e.g., prenatal/birth stages). We validate BFF on two real-world pediatric outcome prediction tasks, demonstrating consistent improvements in early risk assessments. The code is available at https://github.com/scotsun/bff.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

FairPOT: Balancing AUC Performance and Fairness with Proportional Optimal Transport

Fairness metrics utilizing the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) have gained increasing attention in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, finance, and criminal justice. In these domains, fairness is often evaluated over risk scores rather than binary outcomes, and a common challenge is that enforcing strict fairness can significantly degrade AUC performance. To address this challenge, we propose Fair Proportional Optimal Transport (FairPOT), a novel, model-agnostic post-processing framework that strategically aligns risk score distributions across different groups using optimal transport, but does so selectively by transforming a controllable proportion, i.e., the top-lambda quantile, of scores within the disadvantaged group. By varying lambda, our method allows for a tunable trade-off between reducing AUC disparities and maintaining overall AUC performance. Furthermore, we extend FairPOT to the partial AUC setting, enabling fairness interventions to concentrate on the highest-risk regions. Extensive experiments on synthetic, public, and clinical datasets show that FairPOT consistently outperforms existing post-processing techniques in both global and partial AUC scenarios, often achieving improved fairness with slight AUC degradation or even positive gains in utility. The computational efficiency and practical adaptability of FairPOT make it a promising solution for real-world deployment.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

CLEAR: Unlearning Spurious Style-Content Associations with Contrastive LEarning with Anti-contrastive Regularization

Learning representations unaffected by superficial characteristics is important to ensure that shifts in these characteristics at test time do not compromise downstream prediction performance. For instance, in healthcare applications, we might like to learn features that contain information about pathology yet are unaffected by race, sex, and other sources of physiologic variability, thereby ensuring predictions are equitable and generalizable across all demographics. Here we propose Contrastive LEarning with Anti-contrastive Regularization (CLEAR), an intuitive and easy-to-implement framework that effectively separates essential (i.e., task-relevant) characteristics from superficial (i.e., task-irrelevant) characteristics during training, leading to better performance when superficial characteristics shift at test time. We begin by supposing that data representations can be semantically separated into task-relevant content features, which contain information relevant to downstream tasks, and task-irrelevant style features, which encompass superficial attributes that are irrelevant to these tasks, yet may degrade performance due to associations with content present in training data that do not generalize. We then prove that our anti-contrastive penalty, which we call Pair-Switching (PS), minimizes the Mutual Information between the style attributes and content labels. Finally, we instantiate CLEAR in the latent space of a Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE), then perform experiments to quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate the resulting CLEAR-VAE over several image datasets. Our results show that CLEAR-VAE allows us to: (a) swap and interpolate content and style between any pair of samples, and (b) improve downstream classification performance in the presence of previously unseen combinations of content and style. Our code will be made publicly available.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Infinite hierarchical contrastive clustering for personal digital envirotyping

Daily environments have profound influence on our health and behavior. Recent work has shown that digital envirotyping, where computer vision is applied to images of daily environments taken during ecological momentary assessment (EMA), can be used to identify meaningful relationships between environmental features and health outcomes of interest. To systematically study such effects on an individual level, it is helpful to group images into distinct environments encountered in an individual's daily life; these may then be analyzed, further grouped into related environments with similar features, and linked to health outcomes. Here we introduce infinite hierarchical contrastive clustering to address this challenge. Building on the established contrastive clustering framework, our method a) allows an arbitrary number of clusters without requiring the full Dirichlet Process machinery by placing a stick-breaking prior on predicted cluster probabilities; and b) encourages distinct environments to form well-defined sub-clusters within each cluster of related environments by incorporating a participant-specific prediction loss. Our experiments show that our model effectively identifies distinct personal environments and groups these environments into meaningful environment types. We then illustrate how the resulting clusters can be linked to various health outcomes, highlighting the potential of our approach to advance the envirotyping paradigm.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

MALADE: Orchestration of LLM-powered Agents with Retrieval Augmented Generation for Pharmacovigilance

In the era of Large Language Models (LLMs), given their remarkable text understanding and generation abilities, there is an unprecedented opportunity to develop new, LLM-based methods for trustworthy medical knowledge synthesis, extraction and summarization. This paper focuses on the problem of Pharmacovigilance (PhV), where the significance and challenges lie in identifying Adverse Drug Events (ADEs) from diverse text sources, such as medical literature, clinical notes, and drug labels. Unfortunately, this task is hindered by factors including variations in the terminologies of drugs and outcomes, and ADE descriptions often being buried in large amounts of narrative text. We present MALADE, the first effective collaborative multi-agent system powered by LLM with Retrieval Augmented Generation for ADE extraction from drug label data. This technique involves augmenting a query to an LLM with relevant information extracted from text resources, and instructing the LLM to compose a response consistent with the augmented data. MALADE is a general LLM-agnostic architecture, and its unique capabilities are: (1) leveraging a variety of external sources, such as medical literature, drug labels, and FDA tools (e.g., OpenFDA drug information API), (2) extracting drug-outcome association in a structured format along with the strength of the association, and (3) providing explanations for established associations. Instantiated with GPT-4 Turbo or GPT-4o, and FDA drug label data, MALADE demonstrates its efficacy with an Area Under ROC Curve of 0.90 against the OMOP Ground Truth table of ADEs. Our implementation leverages the Langroid multi-agent LLM framework and can be found at https://github.com/jihyechoi77/malade.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Improving Event Time Prediction by Learning to Partition the Event Time Space

Recently developed survival analysis methods improve upon existing approaches by predicting the probability of event occurrence in each of a number pre-specified (discrete) time intervals. By avoiding placing strong parametric assumptions on the event density, this approach tends to improve prediction performance, particularly when data are plentiful. However, in clinical settings with limited available data, it is often preferable to judiciously partition the event time space into a limited number of intervals well suited to the prediction task at hand. In this work, we develop a method to learn from data a set of cut points defining such a partition. We show that in two simulated datasets, we are able to recover intervals that match the underlying generative model. We then demonstrate improved prediction performance on three real-world observational datasets, including a large, newly harmonized stroke risk prediction dataset. Finally, we argue that our approach facilitates clinical decision-making by suggesting time intervals that are most appropriate for each task, in the sense that they facilitate more accurate risk prediction.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

On Neural Networks as Infinite Tree-Structured Probabilistic Graphical Models

Deep neural networks (DNNs) lack the precise semantics and definitive probabilistic interpretation of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). In this paper, we propose an innovative solution by constructing infinite tree-structured PGMs that correspond exactly to neural networks. Our research reveals that DNNs, during forward propagation, indeed perform approximations of PGM inference that are precise in this alternative PGM structure. Not only does our research complement existing studies that describe neural networks as kernel machines or infinite-sized Gaussian processes, it also elucidates a more direct approximation that DNNs make to exact inference in PGMs. Potential benefits include improved pedagogy and interpretation of DNNs, and algorithms that can merge the strengths of PGMs and DNNs.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

A Generic Algorithm for Sleep-Wake Cycle Detection using Unlabeled Actigraphy Data

One key component when analyzing actigraphy data for sleep studies is sleep-wake cycle detection. Most detection algorithms rely on accurate sleep diary labels to generate supervised classifiers, with parameters optimized for a particular dataset. However, once the actigraphy trackers are deployed in the field, labels for training models and validating detection accuracy are often not available. In this paper, we propose a generic, training-free algorithm to detect sleep-wake cycles from minute-by-minute actigraphy. Leveraging a robust nonlinear parametric model, our proposed method refines the detection region by searching for a single change point within bounded regions defined by the parametric model. Challenged by the absence of ground truth labels, we also propose an evaluation metric dedicated to this problem. Tested on week-long actigraphy from 112 children, the results show that the proposed algorithm improves on the baseline model consistently and significantly (p<3e-15). Moreover, focusing on the commonality in human circadian rhythm captured by actigraphy, the proposed method is generic to data collected by various actigraphy trackers, circumventing the laborious label collection step in developing customized classifiers for sleep detection.

stat.AP↗