SearcharxivSearch

arXiv subjects

Matthew Weingarten

Publications and source records attributed to Matthew Weingarten.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Inelastic dilatancy as a mechanism for coseismic fluid depressurization of a shallow fault zone

Hydrologic observations and experimental studies indicate that inelastic dilation from coseismic fault damage can cause substantial pore pressure reduction, yet most near-fault hydromechanical models ignore such inelastic effects. Here, we present a 3-D groundwater flow model incorporating the effects of inelastic dilation based on an earthquake dynamic rupture model with inelastic off fault deformation, both on pore pressure and permeability enhancement. Our results show that inelastic dilation causes mostly notable depressurization within 1 to 2 km off the fault at shallow depths (< 3 km). We found agreement between our model predictions and recent field observations, namely that both sides of the fault can experience large magnitude (~tens of meters) water level drawdowns. For comparison, simulations considering only elastic strain produced smaller water level changes (~several meters) and contrasting signs of water level change on either side of the fault. The models show that inelastic dilation is a mechanism for coseismic fault depressurization at shallow depths. While the inelastic dilation is a localized phenomenon which is most pronounced in the fault zone, the pressure gradients produced in the coseismic phase have a broader effect, increasing fluid migration back into the fault zone in the postseismic phase. We suggest field hydrologic measurements in the very near field (1 to 2 km) of active faults could capture damage-related pore pressure signals produced by inelastic dilation, helping improve our understanding of fault mechanics and groundwater management near active faults.

physics.geo-ph

Mitigation and optimization of induced seismicity using physics-based forecasting

Fluid injection can induce seismicity by altering stresses on pre-existing faults. Here, we investigate minimizing induced seismic hazard by optimizing injection operations in a physics-based forecasting framework. We built a 3D finite element model of the poroelastic crust for the Raton Basin, Central US, and used it to estimate time dependent Coulomb stress changes due to ~25 years of wastewater injection in the region. Our finite element model is complemented by a statistical analysis of the seismogenic index (SI), a proxy for critically stressed faults affected by variations in the pore pressure. Forecasts of seismicity rate from our hybrid physics-based statistical model suggest that induced seismicity in the Raton Basin, from 2001 - 2022, is still driven by wastewater injection. Our model suggests that pore pressure diffusion is the dominant cause of Coulomb stress changes at seismogenic depth, with poroelastic stress changes contributing about 5% to the driving force. Linear programming optimization for the Raton Basin reveals that it is feasible to reduce seismic hazard for a given amount of injected fluid (safety objective) or maximize fluid injection for a prescribed seismic hazard (economic objective). The optimization tends to spread out high-rate injectors and shift them to regions of lower SI. The framework has practical importance as a tool to manage injection rate per unit field area to reduce induced seismic hazard. Our optimization framework is both flexible and adaptable to mitigate induced seismic hazard in other regions and for other types of subsurface fluid injection.

physics.geo-ph