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Matthias Birkner

Publications and source records attributed to Matthias Birkner.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Linear spreading speed in non-monotone population models

For a broad class of discrete-time, finite-range interacting particle systems on $\mathbb{Z}$, we establish a linear spreading speed and a one-dimensional shape theorem on the event of survival, without assuming monotonicity or attractiveness of the dynamics. The method requires that the system admits a coupling with supercritical oriented percolation on a coarse-grained lattice. The central technical step is an approximate subadditivity property for the hitting times, obtained through a `shifted coupling' that compensates for the absence of monotonicity. As a concrete application, we show that a discrete-time branching annihilating random walk fits into this framework, and consequently exhibits a linear spreading speed.

math.PR

A conditional coalescent for diploid exchangeable population models given the pedigree

We study coalescent processes conditional on the population pedigree under the exchangeable diploid bi-parental population model of \citet{BirknerEtAl2018}. While classical coalescent models average over all reproductive histories, thereby marginalizing the pedigree, our work analyzes the genealogical structure embedded within a fixed pedigree generated by the diploid Cannings model. In the large-population limit, we show that these conditional coalescent processes differ significantly from their marginal counterparts when the marginal coalescent process includes multiple mergers. We characterize the limiting process as an inhomogeneous $(\Psi,c)$-coalescent, where $\Psi$ encodes the timing and scale of multiple mergers caused by generations with large individual progeny (GLIPs), and $c$ is a constant rate governing binary mergers. Our results reveal fundamental distinctions between quenched (conditional) and annealed (classical) genealogical models, demonstrate how the fixed pedigree structure impacts multi-locus statistics such as the site-frequency spectrum, and have implications for interpreting patterns of genetic variation among unlinked loci in the genomes of sampled individuals. They significantly extend the results of \citet{DiamantidisEtAl2024}, which considered a sample of size two under a specific Wright-Fisher model with a highly reproductive couple, and those of \citet{TyukinThesis2015}, where Kingman coalescent was the limiting process. Our proofs adapt coupling techniques from the theory of random walks in random environments.

math.PR

Quenched local limit theorem for a directed random walk on the backbone of a supercritical oriented percolation cluster for $d \ge 1$

In this work we extend the quenched local limit theorem obtained by the authors in [BBDS23]. More precisely, we consider a directed random walk on the backbone of the supercritical oriented percolation cluster in dimensions $d+1$ with $d\geq 1$ being the spatial dimension. In [BBDS23] an annealed local central limit theorem was proven for all $d\geq 1$ and a quenched local limit theorem under the assumption $d\geq 3$. Here we show that the latter result also holds for all $d \ge 1$.

math.PR

Pair coalescence times of ancestral lineages of two-dimensional logistic branching random walks

Consider two ancestral lineages sampled from a system of two-dimensional branching random walks with logistic regulation in the stationary regime. We study the asymptotics of their coalescence time for large initial separation and find that it agrees with well known results for a suitably scaled two-dimensional stepping stone model and also with Mal\'ecot's continuous-space approximation for the probability of identity by descent as a function of sampling distance. This can be viewed as a justification for the replacement of locally fluctuating population sizes by fixed effective sizes. Our main tool is a joint regeneration construction for the spatial embeddings of the two ancestral lineages.

math.PR

Quenched CLT for ancestral lineages of logistic branching random walks

We consider random walks in dynamic random environments which arise naturally as spatial embeddings of ancestral lineages in spatial locally regulated population models. In particular, as the main result, we prove the quenched central limit theorem for a random walk in dynamic random environment generated by time reversal of logistic branching random walks in a regime where the population density is sufficiently high. As an important tool we consider as auxiliary models random walks in dynamic random environments defined in terms of the time-reversal of oriented percolation. We show that the quenched central limit theorem holds if the influence of the random medium on the walks is suitably weak. The proofs of the quenched central limit theorems in these models rely on coarse-graining arguments and a construction of regeneration times for a pair of conditionally independent random walks in the same medium, combined with a coupling that relates them to a pair of independent random walks in two independent copies of the medium.

math.PR

On the fixation probability of an advantageous allele in a population with skewed offspring distribution

Consider an advantageous allele that arises in a haploid population of size $N$ evolving in continuous time according to a skewed reproduction mechanism, which generates under neutrality genealogies lying in the domain of attraction of a Beta$(2-\alpha, \alpha)$-coalescent for $\alpha \in (1,2)$. We prove in a setting of moderate selection that the fixation probability $\pi_N$ of the advantageous allele is asymptotically equal to $\alpha^{1/(\alpha-1)} s_N^{1/(\alpha-1)} $ , where $s_N$ is the selection strength of the advantageous allele. Our proof uses duality with a suitable $\Lambda$-ancestral selection graph.

math.PR

Collective vs. individual behaviour for sums of i.i.d. random variables: appearance of the one-big-jump phenomenon

This article studies large and local large deviations for sums of i.i.d. real-valued random variables in the domain of attraction of an $α$-stable law, $α\in (0,2]$, with emphasis on the case $α=2$. There are two different scenarios: either the deviation is realised via a collective behaviour with all summands contributing to the deviation (a Gaussian scenario), or a single summand is atypically large and contributes to the deviation (a one-big-jump scenario). Such results are known when $α\in (0,2)$ (large deviations always follow a one big-jump scenario) or when the random variables admit a moment of order $2+δ$ for some $δ>0$. We extend these results, including in particular the case where the right tail is regularly varying with index $-2$ (treating cases with infinite variance in the domain of attraction of the normal law). We identify the threshold for the transition between the Gaussian and the one-big-jump regimes; it is slightly larger when considering local large deviations compared to integral large deviations. Additionally, we complement our results by describing the behaviour of the sum and of the largest summand conditionally on a (local) large deviation, for any $α\in (0,2]$, both in the Gaussian and in the one-big-jump regimes. As an application, we show how our results can be used in the study of condensation phenomenon in the zero-range process at the critical density, extending the range of parameters previously considered in the literature.

math.PR

Survival and complete convergence for a branching annihilating random walk

We study a discrete-time branching annihilating random walk (BARW) on the $d$-dimensional lattice. Each particle produces a Poissonian number of offspring with mean $\mu$ which independently move to a uniformly chosen site within a fixed distance $R$ from their parent's position. Whenever a site is occupied by at least two particles, all the particles at that site are annihilated. We prove that for any $\mu>1$ the process survives when $R$ is sufficiently large. For fixed $R$ we show that the process dies out if $\mu$ is too small or too large. Furthermore, we exhibit an interval of $\mu$-values for which the process survives and possesses a unique non-trivial ergodic equilibrium for $R$ sufficiently large. We also prove complete convergence for that case.

math.PR

The joint fluctuations of the lengths of the Beta$(2-α, α)$-coalescents

We consider Beta$(2-α, α)$-coalescents with parameter range $1 <α<2$ starting from $n$ leaves. The length $\ell^{(n)}_r$ of order $r$ in the $n$-Beta$(2-α, α)$-coalescent tree is defined as the sum of the lengths of all branches that carry a subtree with $r$ leaves. We show that for any $s \in \mathbb N$ the vector of suitably centered and rescaled lengths of orders $1\le r \le s$ converges in distribution to a multivariate stable distribution as the number of leaves tends to infinity.

math.PR

Quenched large deviation principle for words in a letter sequence

When we cut an i.i.d. sequence of letters into words according to an independent renewal process, we obtain an i.i.d. sequence of words. In the \emph{annealed} large deviation principle (LDP) for the empirical process of words, the rate function is the specific relative entropy of the observed law of words w.r.t. the reference law of words. In the present paper we consider the \emph{quenched} LDP, i.e., we condition on a typical letter sequence. We focus on the case where the renewal process has an \emph{algebraic} tail. The rate function turns out to be a sum of two terms, one being the annealed rate function, the other being proportional to the specific relative entropy of the observed law of letters w.r.t. the reference law of letters, with the former being obtained by concatenating the words and randomising the location of the origin. The proportionality constant equals the tail exponent of the renewal process. Earlier work by Birkner considered the case where the renewal process has an exponential tail, in which case the rate function turns out to be the first term on the set where the second term vanishes and to be infinite elsewhere. The previous version (arXiv:0807.2611v2) appeared in Probab. Theory Relat. Fields 148, no. 3/4 (2010), 403--456. Meanwhile, it has turned out that the original proof of the representation of the rate function is flawed when the mean word length is infinite. We add an erratum in which we fix the flaw in the proof. Along the way we derive new representations of the rate function that are interesting in their own right. A key ingredient in the proof is the observation that if the rate function in the annealed large deviation principle is finite at a stationary word process, then the letters in the tail of the long words in this process are typical.

math.PR

Local limit theorems for a directed random walk on the backbone of a supercritical oriented percolation cluster

We consider a directed random walk on the backbone of the supercritical oriented percolation cluster in dimensions $d+1$ with $d \ge 3$ being the spatial dimension. For this random walk we prove an annealed local central limit theorem and a quenched local limit theorem. The latter shows that the quenched transition probabilities of the random walk converge to the annealed transition probabilities reweighted by a function of the medium centred at the target site. This function is the density of the unique measure which is invariant for the point of view of the particle, is absolutely continuous with respect to the annealed measure and satisfies certain concentration properties.

math.PR

Probabilities of large values for sums of i.i.d. non-negative random variables with regular tail of index $-1$

Let $ξ_1, ξ_2, \dots$ be i.i.d. non-negative random variables whose tail varies regularly with index $-1$, let $S_n$ be the sum and $M_n$ the largest of the first $n$ values. We clarify for which sequences $x_n\to\infty$ we have $\mathbb P(S_n \ge x_n) \sim \mathbb P(M_n \ge x_n)$ as $n\to\infty$. Outside this regime, the typical size of $S_n$ conditioned on exceeding $x_n$ is not completely determined by the largest summand and we provide an appropriate correction term which involves the integrated tail of $ξ_1$.

math.PR

Genealogies and inference for populations with highly skewed offspring distributions

We review recent progress in the understanding of the role of multiple- and simultaneous multiple merger coalescents as models for the genealogy in idealised and real populations with exceptional reproductive behaviour. In particular, we discuss models with `skewed offspring distribution' (or under other non-classical evolutionary forces) which lead in the single locus haploid case to multiple merger coalescents, and in the multi-locus diploid case to simultaneous multiple merger coalescents. Further, we discuss inference methods under the infinitely-many sites model which allow both model selection and estimation of model parameters under these coalescents.

math.PR

Ancestral lineages in spatial population models with local regulation

We give a short overview on our work on ancestral lineages in spatial population models with local regulation. We explain how an ancestral lineage can be interpreted as a random walk in a dynamic random environment. Defining regeneration times allows to prove central limit theorems for such walks. We also consider several ancestral lineages in the same population and show for one prototypical example that in one dimension the corresponding system of coalescing walks converges to the Brownian web.

math.PR

Coalescing directed random walks on the backbone of a 1 +1-dimensional oriented percolation cluster converge to the Brownian web

We consider the backbone of the infinite cluster generated by supercritical oriented site percolation in dimension 1 +1. A directed random walk on this backbone can be seen as an "ancestral line" of an individual sampled in the stationary discrete-time contact process. Such ancestral lineages were investigated in [BCDG13] where a central limit theorem for a single walker was proved. Here, we consider infinitely many coalescing walkers on the same backbone starting at each space-time point. We show that, after diffusive rescaling, the collection of paths converges in distribution to the Brownian web. Hence, we prove convergence to the Brownian web for a particular system of coalescing random walks in a dynamical random environment. An important tool in the proof is a tail bound on the meeting time of two walkers on the backbone, started at the same time. Our result can be interpreted as an averaging statement about the percolation cluster: apart from a change of variance, it behaves as the full lattice, i.e. the effect of the "holes" in the cluster vanishes on a large scale.

math.PR

Coalescent results for diploid exchangeable population models

We consider diploid bi-parental analogues of Cannings models: in a population of fixed size $N$ the next generation is composed of $V_{i,j}$ offspring from parents $i$ and $j$, where $V=(V_{i,j})_{1\le i\neq j \le N}$ is a (jointly) exchangeable (symmetric) array. Every individual carries two chromosome copies, each of which is inherited from one of its parents. We obtain general conditions, formulated in terms of the vector of the total number of offspring to each individual, for the convergence of the properly scaled ancestral process for an $n$-sample of genes towards a ($Ξ$-)coalescent. This complements Möhle and Sagitov's (2001) result for the haploid case and sharpens the profile of Möhle and Sagitov's (2003) study of the diploid case, which focused on fixed couples, where each row of $V$ has at most one non-zero entry. We apply the convergence result to several examples, in particular to two diploid variations of Schweinsberg's (2003) model, leading to Beta-coalescents with two-fold and with four-fold mergers, respectively.

math.PR

Low-dimensional lonely branching random walks die out

The lonely branching random walks on ${\mathbb Z}^d$ is an interacting particle system where each particle moves as an independent random walk and undergoes critical binary branching when it is alone. We show that if the symmetrized walk is recurrent, lonely branching random walks die out locally. Furthermore, the same result holds if additional branching is allowed when the walk is not alone.

math.PR

Random walks in dynamic random environments and ancestry under local population regulation

We consider random walks in dynamic random environments, with an environment generated by the time-reversal of a Markov process from the oriented percolation universality class. If the influence of the random medium on the walk is small in space-time regions where the medium is typical, we obtain a law of large numbers and an averaged central limit theorem for the walk via a regeneration construction under suitable coarse-graining. Such random walks occur naturally as spatial embeddings of ancestral lineages in spatial population models with local regulation. We verify that our assumptions hold for logistic branching random walks when the population density is sufficiently high.

math.PR