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Matthias Kreck

Publications and source records attributed to Matthias Kreck.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Back to the roots: A discrete Kermack-McKendrick model adapted to Covid-19

A widely used tool for analysing the Covid-19 pandemic is the standard SIR model. It seems often to be used as a black box, not taking into account that this model was derived as a special case of the seminal Kermack-McKendrick theory from 1927. This is our starting point. We explain the setup of the Kermack-McKendrick theory (passing to a discrete approach) and use medical information for specializing to a model which we call {\em adapted K-McK-model}. This includes effects of vaccination, mass testing and mutants. We demonstrate the use of the model by applying it to the development in Germany. As a striking application we demonstrate that a comparatively mild intervention reducing the time until quarantine by one day leads to a drastic improvement. A similar effect can be obtained by certain mass testings as we will demonstrate. We discuss possibilities to apply the model both for predictions and as an analysis tool. We compare the adapted K-McK-model to the standard SIR model and observe condiderable differences if the contact rates are not constant. Finally we compare the model reproduction rate with the empirical reproduction rate determined by the Robert Koch-Institut.

q-bio.PE

Studying the course of Covid-19 by a recursive delay approach

In an earlier paper we proposed a recursive model for epidemics; in the present paper we generalize this model to include the asymptomatic or unrecorded symptomatic people, which we call {\em dark people} (dark sector). We call this the SEPAR$_d$-model. A delay differential equation version of the model is added; it allows a better comparison to other models. We carry this out by a comparison with the classical SIR model and indicate why we believe that the SEPAR$_d$ model may work better for Covid-19 than other approaches. In the second part of the paper we explain how to deal with the data provided by the JHU, in particular we explain how to derive central model parameters from the data. Other parameters, like the size of the dark sector, are less accessible and have to be estimated more roughly, at best by results of representative serological studies which are accessible, however, only for a few countries. We start our country studies with Switzerland where such data are available. Then we apply the model to a collection of other countries, three European ones (Germany, France, Sweden), the three most stricken countries from three other continents (USA, Brazil, India). Finally we show that even the aggregated world data can be well represented by our approach. At the end of the paper we discuss the use of the model. Perhaps the most striking application is that it allows a quantitative analysis of the influence of the time until people are sent to quarantine or hospital. This suggests that imposing means to shorten this time is a powerful tool to flatten the curves

q-bio.PE

Mapping class group of manifolds which look like $3$-dimensional complete intersections

In this paper we compute the mapping class group of closed simply-connected 6-manifolds $M$ which look like complete intersections, i.~e.~ $H_2(M;\mathbb Z) \cong \mathbb Z $ and $x^3 \ne 0$ where $x \in H^2(M; \mathbb Z)$ is a generator. We determine some algebraic properties of the mapping class group; for example we compute its abelianization and its center. We show that modulo the center the mapping class group is residually finite and virtually torsion-free. We also study low dimensional homology groups. The results are very similar to the computation of the mapping class group of Riemann surfaces. We give generators of the mapping class group, and generators and relations for the subgroup acting trivially on $\pi_{3}(M)$.

math.GT

Proposal of a recursive compartment model of epidemics and applications to the Covid-19 pandemic

This is work in progress. We make it accessible hoping that people might find the idea useful. We propose a discrete, recursive 5-compartment model for the spread of epidemics, which we call {\em SEPIR-model}. Under mild assumptions which typically are fulfilled for the Covid-19 pandemic it can be used to reproduce the development of an epidemic from a small number of parameters closely related to the data. We demonstrate this at the development in Germany and Switzerland. It also allows model predictions assuming nearly constant reproduction numbers. Thus it might be a useful tool for shedding light on which interventions might be most effective in the future. In future work we will discuss other aspects of the model and more countries.

q-bio.PE

Finiteness and infiniteness results for Torelli groups of (hyper-)K\"ahler manifolds

The Torelli group $\mathcal T(X)$ of a closed smooth manifold $X$ is the subgroup of the mapping class group $\pi_0(\mathrm{Diff}^+(X))$ consisting of elements which act trivially on the integral cohomology of $X$. In this note we give counterexamples to Theorem 3.4 of Verbitsky's paper "Mapping class group and a global Torelli theorem for hyperk\"ahler manifolds" (Duke Math.~J.~162 (2013), no.~15, 2929-2986) which states that the Torelli group of simply connected K\"ahler manifolds of complex dimension $\ge 3$ is finite. This is done by constructing under some mild conditions homomorphisms $J: \mathcal T(X) \to H^3(X;\mathbb Q)$ and showing that for certain K\"ahler manifolds this map is non-trivial. We also give a counterexample to Theorem 3.5 (iv) in this paper where Verbitsky claims that the Torelli group of hyperk\"ahler manifolds are finite. These examples are detected by the action of diffeomorphsims on $\pi_4(X)$. Finally we confirm the finiteness result for the special case of the hyperk\"ahler manifold $K^{[2]}$.

math.GT

A zoo of geometric homology theories

The theories in our zoo are all bordism groups, which generalize the case of smooth manifolds by allowing singularities. There are many concepts of manifolds with singularities one could use here. For our pupose the objects the author introduced some years ago, which are called stratifolds, work particularly well. The zoo comes from forcing certain strata indexed by the subset $A$ to be empty. Special cases are ordinary singular homology and singular bordism. Despite their simple construction computations of these groups seem to be very complicated. We give a few simple examples. Thus there are no interesting applications so far and the zoo looks a bit like a curiosity. But one never knows for what these theories might be good in the future. We mention a concrete question which might be useful in connection with the Griffith group consisting of algebraic cycles in a smooth algebraic variety over the complex numbers which vanish in singular homology. I dedicate these notes to my friend Egbert Brieskorn. Egbert is (in a very different way like our common teacher Hirzebruch) a person which had a great influence on me. When I had to make a complicated decision I often had him in front of my eyes and asked myself: What would Egbert suggest? Conversations with him were always intense and fruitful. I miss him very much.

math.AT

On the classification of 1-connected 7-manifolds with torsion free second homology

We generalize a result of the author about the classification of 1-connected 7-manifolds and demonstrate its use by two concrete applications, one to 2-connected 7-manifolds (a new proof -- and slightly different formulation -- of an up to now unpublished Theorem by Crowley and Nordstroem and one to simply connected 7-manifolds with the cohomology ring of $S^2 \times S^5 \sharp S^3 \times S^4$. The answer is in terms of generalized Kreck-Stolz invariants, which in the case of 2-connected 7-manifolds is equivalent to a quadratic refinement of the linking form and a generalized Eells-Kuiper invariant.

math.GT

On $5$-manifolds with free fundamental group and simple boundary links in $S^5$

We classify compact oriented $5$-manifolds with free fundamental group and $\pi_{2}$ a torsion free abelian group in terms of the second homotopy group considered as $\pi_1$-module, the cup product on the second cohomology of the universal covering, and the second Stiefel-Whitney class of the universal covering. We apply this to the classification of simple boundary links of $3$-spheres in $S^5$. Using this we give a complete algebraic picture of closed $5$-manifolds with free fundamental group and trivial second homology group.

math.GT

Hilbert stratifolds and a Quillen type geometric description of cohomology for Hilbert manifolds

In this paper we use tools from differential topology to give a geometric description of cohomology for Hilbert manifolds. Our model is Quillen's geometric description of cobordism groups for finite dimensional smooth manifolds \cite{Q}. Quillen stresses the fact that this construction allows the definition of Gysin maps for "oriented" proper maps. For finite dimensional manifolds one has a Gysin map in singular cohomology which is based on Poincar\'e duality, hence it is not clear how to extend it to infinite dimensional manifolds. But perhaps one can overcome this difficulty by giving a Quillen type description of singular cohomology for Hilbert manifolds. This is what we do in this paper. Besides constructing a general Gysin map, one of our motivations was a geometric construction of equivariant cohomology, which even for a point is the cohomology of the infinite dimensional space $BG$, which has a Hilbert manifold model. Besides that, we demonstrate the use of such a geometric description of cohomology by several other applications. We give a quick description of characteristic classes of a finite dimensional vector bundle and apply it to a generalized Steenrod representation problem for Hilbert manifolds and define a notion of a degree of proper oriented Fredholm maps of index $0$.

math.AT

On a class of $5$-manifolds with $π_1=\mathbb Z$ with applications to knottings in $S^5$

We classify $5$-manifolds with fundamental group $\mathbb Z$ and $π_{2}$ a finitely generated abelian group in terms of the cup product on the second cohomology of the universal covering. The classification result is applied to study simple knots $k \colon S^{3} \subset S^{5}$ and the question, which compact topological or smooth orientable $5$-manifold is a topological or smooth fibre bundle over the circle with simply-connected fibre.

math.GT

Recognizing products of surfaces and simply connected 4-manifolds

We give necessary and sufficient conditions for a closed smooth 6-manifold N to be diffeomorphic to a product of a surface F and a simply connected 4-manifold M in terms of basic invariants like the fundamental group and cohomological data. Any isometry of the intersection form of M is realized by a self-diffeomorphism of M x F.

math.GT

A geometric description of smooth cohomology

In this paper we give a geometric cobordism description of smooth integral cohomology. This model allows for simple descriptions of both the cup product and the integration, so that it is easy to verify the compatibilty of these structures.

math.AT

Topological 4-manifolds with geometrically 2-dimensional fundamental groups

Closed oriented 4-manifolds with the same geometrically 2-dimensional fundamental group (satisfying certain properties) are classified up to $s$-cobordism by their $w_2$-type, equivariant intersection form and the Kirby-Siebenmann invariant. As an application, we obtain a complete homeomorphism classification of closed oriented 4-manifolds with solvable Baumslag-Solitar fundamental groups, including a precise realization result.

math.GT

Involutions on 3-Manifolds and Self-dual, Binary Codes

We study a correspondence between orientation reversing involutions on compact 3-manifolds with only isolated fixed points and binary, self-dual codes. We show in particular that every such code can be obtained from such an involution. We further relate doubly even codes to Pin^- -structures and Spin-manifolds.

math.AT

Topological rigidity for non-aspherical manifolds

The Borel Conjecture predicts that closed aspherical manifolds are topological rigid. We want to investigate when a non-aspherical oriented connected closed manifold M is topological rigid in the following sense. If f: N --> M is an orientation preserving homotopy equivalence with a closed oriented manifold as target, then there is an orientation preserving homeomorphism h: N --> M such that h and f induce up to conjugation the same maps on the fundamental groups. We call such manifolds Borel manifolds. We give partial answers to this questions for S^k x S^d, for sphere bundles over aspherical closed manifolds of dimension less or equal to 3 and for 3-manifolds with torsionfree fundamental groups. We show that this rigidity is inherited under connected sums in dimensions greater or equal to 5. We also classify manifolds of dimension 5 or 6 whose fundamental group is the one of a surface and whose second homotopy group is trivial.

math.GT

Homotopy self-equivalences of 4-manifolds

We establish a braid of interlocking exact sequences containing the group of homotopy self-equivalences of a smooth or topological 4-manifold. The braid is computed for manifolds whose fundamental group is finite of odd order.

math.GT