arXiv subjects

Matthias Pirlet

Publications and source records attributed to Matthias Pirlet.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Reconciling European Electricity Data with Diffusion Priors Learned from Observations Alone

The ENTSO-E Transparency Platform publishes generation, load, and cross-border power flows for European bidding zones. The values carry undocumented errors and violate energy conservation, and data reconciliation consists in correcting them to satisfy that balance. In this work, we formulate data reconciliation as Bayesian inference. Classical methods implicitly take a uniform prior, which we replace with a diffusion model estimated from the observations alone by empirical-Bayes expectation-maximization. The resulting posterior is sampled with a guided process whose projection step makes every sample satisfy the balance exactly. On synthetic systems of six to thirty-five bidding zones, built from ENTSO-E resource-adequacy data, the diffusion prior gives the most accurate reconciliation, increasingly so as the system grows. Its credible intervals are calibrated or conservative, and it remains the most accurate under a misspecified noise covariance. Finally, when the generation of entire zones goes unreported, the classical methods fail while the learned prior recovers it from cross-zone structure.

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arXiv2026

Bayesian Inference for Estimating Generation Costs in Electricity Markets

Estimating generation costs from observed electricity market data is essential for market simulation, strategic bidding, and system planning. To that end, we model the relationship between generation costs and production schedules with a latent variable model. Estimating generation costs from observed schedules is then formulated as Bayesian inference. A prior distribution encodes an initial belief on parameters, and the inference consists of updating the belief with the posterior distribution given observations. We use balanced neural posterior estimation (BNPE) to learn this posterior. Validation on the IEEE RTS-96 test system shows that marginal costs are recovered with narrow credible intervals, while start-up costs remain largely unidentifiable from schedules alone. The method is benchmarked against an inverse-optimization algorithm that exhibits larger parameter errors without uncertainty quantification.

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arXiv2025

Appa: Bending Weather Dynamics with Latent Diffusion Models for Global Data Assimilation

Deep learning has advanced weather forecasting, but accurate predictions first require identifying the current state of the atmosphere from observational data. In this work, we introduce Appa, a score-based data assimilation model generating global atmospheric trajectories at 0.25\si{\degree} resolution and 1-hour intervals. Powered by a 565M-parameter latent diffusion model trained on ERA5, Appa can be conditioned on arbitrary observations to infer plausible trajectories, without retraining. Our probabilistic framework handles reanalysis, filtering, and forecasting, within a single model, producing physically consistent reconstructions from various inputs. Results establish latent score-based data assimilation as a promising foundation for future global atmospheric modeling systems.

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arXiv2024

Cost Estimation in Unit Commitment Problems Using Simulation-Based Inference

The Unit Commitment (UC) problem is a key optimization task in power systems to forecast the generation schedules of power units over a finite time period by minimizing costs while meeting demand and technical constraints. However, many parameters required by the UC problem are unknown, such as the costs. In this work, we estimate these unknown costs using simulation-based inference on an illustrative UC problem, which provides an approximated posterior distribution of the parameters given observed generation schedules and demands. Our results highlight that the learned posterior distribution effectively captures the underlying distribution of the data, providing a range of possible values for the unknown parameters given a past observation. This posterior allows for the estimation of past costs using observed past generation schedules, enabling operators to better forecast future costs and make more robust generation scheduling forecasts. We present avenues for future research to address overconfidence in posterior estimation, enhance the scalability of the methodology and apply it to more complex UC problems modeling the network constraints and renewable energy sources.

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