arXiv subjects

Matthias Schmid

Publications and source records attributed to Matthias Schmid.

36 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Total Least Squares for Optimal Pose Estimation

This work provides a theoretical framework for the pose estimation problem using total least squares for vector observations from landmark features. First, the optimization framework is formulated with observation vectors extracted from point cloud features. Then, error-covariance expressions are derived. The attitude and position solutions obtained via the derived optimization framework are proven to reach the bounds defined by the Cramér-Rao lower bound under the small-angle approximation of attitude errors. The measurement data for the simulation of this problem is provided through a series of vector observation scans, and a fully populated observation noise-covariance matrix is assumed as the weight in the cost function to cover the most general case of the sensor uncertainty. Here, previous derivations are expanded for the pose estimation problem to include more generic correlations in the errors than previous cases involving an isotropic noise assumption. The proposed solution is simulated in a Monte-Carlo framework to validate the error-covariance analysis.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2020

Assessing the Calibration of Subdistribution Hazard Models in Discrete Time

The generalization performance of a risk prediction model can be evaluated by its calibration, which measures the agreement between predicted and observed outcomes on external validation data. Here, methods for assessing the calibration of discrete time-to-event models in the presence of competing risks are proposed. The methods are designed for the class of discrete subdistribution hazard models, which directly relate the cumulative incidence function of one event of interest to a set of covariates. Simulation studies show that the methods are strong tools for calibration assessment even in scenarios with a high censoring rate and/or a large number of discrete time points. The proposed approaches are illustrated by an analysis of nosocomial pneumonia.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

State-of-the-art in selection of variables and functional forms in multivariable analysis -- outstanding issues

How to select variables and identify functional forms for continuous variables is a key concern when creating a multivariable model. Ad hoc 'traditional' approaches to variable selection have been in use for at least 50 years. Similarly, methods for determining functional forms for continuous variables were first suggested many years ago. More recently, many alternative approaches to address these two challenges have been proposed, but knowledge of their properties and meaningful comparisons between them are scarce. To define a state-of-the-art and to provide evidence-supported guidance to researchers who have only a basic level of statistical knowledge many outstanding issues in multivariable modelling remain. Our main aims are to identify and illustrate such gaps in the literature and present them at a moderate technical level to the wide community of practitioners, researchers and students of statistics. We briefly discuss general issues in building descriptive regression models, strategies for variable selection, different ways of choosing functional forms for continuous variables, and methods for combining the selection of variables and functions. We discuss two examples, taken from the medical literature, to illustrate problems in the practice of modelling. Our overview revealed that there is not yet enough evidence on which to base recommendations for the selection of variables and functional forms in multivariable analysis. Such evidence may come from comparisons between alternative methods. In particular, we highlight seven important topics that require further investigation and make suggestions for the direction of further research.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

A Random Forest Approach for Modeling Bounded Outcomes

Random forests have become an established tool for classification and regression, in particular in high-dimensional settings and in the presence of complex predictor-response relationships. For bounded outcome variables restricted to the unit interval, however, classical random forest approaches may severely suffer as they do not account for the heteroscedasticity in the data. A random forest approach is proposed for relating beta distributed outcomes to explanatory variables. The approach explicitly makes use of the likelihood function of the beta distribution for the selection of splits during the tree-building procedure. In each iteration of the tree-building algorithm one chooses the combination of explanatory variable and splitting rule that maximizes the log-likelihood function of the beta distribution with the parameter estimates derived from the nodes of the currently built tree. Several simulation studies demonstrate the properties of the method and compare its performance to classical random forest approaches as well as to parametric regression models.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

Correlation-Adjusted Regression Survival Scores for High-Dimensional Variable Selection

Background: The development of classification methods for personalized medicine is highly dependent on the identification of predictive genetic markers. In survival analysis it is often necessary to discriminate between influential and non-influential markers. Usually, the first step is to perform a univariate screening step that ranks the markers according to their associations with the outcome. It is common to perform screening using Cox scores, which quantify the associations between survival and each of the markers individually. Since Cox scores do not account for dependencies between the markers, their use is suboptimal in the presence highly correlated markers. Methods: As an alternative to the Cox score, we propose the correlation-adjusted regression survival (CARS) score for right-censored survival outcomes. By removing the correlations between the markers, the CARS score quantifies the associations between the outcome and the set of "de-correlated" marker values. Estimation of the scores is based on inverse probability weighting, which is applied to log-transformed event times. For high-dimensional data, estimation is based on shrinkage techniques. Results: The consistency of the CARS score is proven under mild regularity conditions. In simulations, survival models based on CARS score rankings achieved higher areas under the precision-recall curve than competing methods. Two example applications on prostate and breast cancer confirmed these results. CARS scores are implemented in the R package carSurv. Conclusions: In research applications involving high-dimensional genetic data, the use of CARS scores for marker selection is a favorable alternative to Cox scores even when correlations between covariates are low. Having a straightforward interpretation and low computational requirements, CARS scores are an easy-to-use screening tool in personalized medicine research.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Clustering with Statistical Error Control

This paper presents a clustering approach that allows for rigorous statistical error control similar to a statistical test. We develop estimators for both the unknown number of clusters and the clusters themselves. The estimators depend on a tuning parameter alpha which is similar to the significance level of a statistical hypothesis test. By choosing alpha, one can control the probability of overestimating the true number of clusters, while the probability of underestimation is asymptotically negligible. In addition, the probability that the estimated clusters differ from the true ones is controlled. In the theoretical part of the paper, formal versions of these statements on statistical error control are derived in a standard model setting with convex clusters. A simulation study and two applications to temperature and gene expression microarray data complement the theoretical analysis.

math.ST↗

arXiv2017

Tree-Structured Modelling of Varying Coefficients

The varying-coefficient model is a strong tool for the modelling of interactions in generalized regression. It is easy to apply if both the variables that are modified as well as the effect modifiers are known. However, in general one has a set of explanatory variables and it is unknown which variables are modified by which covariates. A recursive partitioning strategy is proposed that is able to deal with the complex selection problem. The tree-structured modelling yields for each covariate, which is modified by other variables, a tree that visualizes the modified effects. The performance of the method is investigated in simulations and two applications illustrate its usefulness.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Semiparametric Regression for Discrete Time-to-Event Data

Time-to-event models are a popular tool to analyse data where the outcome variable is the time to the occurrence of a specific event of interest. Here we focus on the analysis of time-to-event outcomes that are either intrisically discrete or grouped versions of continuous event times. In the literature, there exists a variety of regression methods for such data. This tutorial provides an introduction to how these models can be applied using open source statistical software. In particular, we consider semiparametric extensions comprising the use of smooth nonlinear functions and tree-based methods. All methods are illustrated by data on the duration of unemployment of U.S. citizens.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2017

An update on statistical boosting in biomedicine

Statistical boosting algorithms have triggered a lot of research during the last decade. They combine a powerful machine-learning approach with classical statistical modelling, offering various practical advantages like automated variable selection and implicit regularization of effect estimates. They are extremely flexible, as the underlying base-learners (regression functions defining the type of effect for the explanatory variables) can be combined with any kind of loss function (target function to be optimized, defining the type of regression setting). In this review article, we highlight the most recent methodological developments on statistical boosting regarding variable selection, functional regression and advanced time-to-event modelling. Additionally, we provide a short overview on relevant applications of statistical boosting in biomedicine.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2016

Boosting Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data

Joint Models for longitudinal and time-to-event data have gained a lot of attention in the last few years as they are a helpful technique to approach common a data structure in clinical studies where longitudinal outcomes are recorded alongside event times. Those two processes are often linked and the two outcomes should thus be modeled jointly in order to prevent the potential bias introduced by independent modelling. Commonly, joint models are estimated in likelihood based expectation maximization or Bayesian approaches using frameworks where variable selection is problematic and which do not immediately work for high-dimensional data. In this paper, we propose a boosting algorithm tackling these challenges by being able to simultaneously estimate predictors for joint models and automatically select the most influential variables even in high-dimensional data situations. We analyse the performance of the new algorithm in a simulation study and apply it to the Danish cystic fibrosis registry which collects longitudinal lung function data on patients with cystic fibrosis together with data regarding the onset of pulmonary infections. This is the first approach to combine state-of-the art algorithms from the field of machine-learning with the model class of joint models, providing a fully data-driven mechanism to select variables and predictor effects in a unified framework of boosting joint models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2016

Stability selection for component-wise gradient boosting in multiple dimensions

We present a new algorithm for boosting generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) that allows to incorporate stability selection, an increasingly popular way to obtain stable sets of covariates while controlling the per-family error rate (PFER). The model is fitted repeatedly to subsampled data and variables with high selection frequencies are extracted. To apply stability selection to boosted GAMLSS, we develop a new "noncyclical" fitting algorithm that incorporates an additional selection step of the best-fitting distribution parameter in each iteration. This new algorithms has the additional advantage that optimizing the tuning parameters of boosting is reduced from a multi-dimensional to a one-dimensional problem with vastly decreased complexity. The performance of the novel algorithm is evaluated in an extensive simulation study. We apply this new algorithm to a study to estimate abundance of common eider in Massachusetts, USA, featuring excess zeros, overdispersion, non-linearity and spatio-temporal structures. Eider abundance is estimated via boosted GAMLSS, allowing both mean and overdispersion to be regressed on covariates. Stability selection is used to obtain a sparse set of stable predictors.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2016

A Statistical Model for the Analysis of Beta Values in DNA Methylation Studies

Background: The analysis of DNA methylation is a key component in the development of personalized treatment approaches. A common way to measure DNA methylation is the calculation of beta values, which are bounded variables of the form M = (M + U) that are generated by Illumina's 450k BeadChip array. The statistical analysis of beta values is considered to be challenging, as traditional methods for the analysis of bounded variables, such as M-value regression and beta regression, are based on regularity assumptions that are often too strong to adequately describe the distribution of beta values. Results: We develop a statistical model for the analysis of beta values that is derived from a bivariate gamma distribution for the signal intensities M and U. By allowing for possible correlations between M and U, the proposed model explicitly takes into account the data-generating process underlying the calculation of beta values. Conclusion: The proposed model can be used to improve the identification of associations between beta values and covariates such as clinical variables and lifestyle factors in epigenome-wide association studies. It is as easy to apply to a sample of beta values as beta regression and M-value regression.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2016

On the use of Harrell's C for clinical risk prediction via random survival forests

Random survival forests (RSF) are a powerful method for risk prediction of right-censored outcomes in biomedical research. RSF use the log-rank split criterion to form an ensemble of survival trees. The most common approach to evaluate the prediction accuracy of a RSF model is Harrell's concordance index for survival data ('C index'). Conceptually, this strategy implies that the split criterion in RSF is different from the evaluation criterion of interest. This discrepancy can be overcome by using Harrell's C for both node splitting and evaluation. We compare the difference between the two split criteria analytically and in simulation studies with respect to the preference of more unbalanced splits, termed end-cut preference (ECP). Specifically, we show that the log-rank statistic has a stronger ECP compared to the C index. In simulation studies and with the help of two medical data sets we demonstrate that the accuracy of RSF predictions, as measured by Harrell's C, can be improved if the log-rank statistic is replaced by the C index for node splitting. This is especially true in situations where the censoring rate or the fraction of informative continuous predictor variables is high. Conversely, log-rank splitting is preferable in noisy scenarios. Both C-based and log-rank splitting are implemented in the R~package ranger. We recommend Harrell's C as split criterion for use in smaller scale clinical studies and the log-rank split criterion for use in large-scale 'omics' studies.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2014

The Evolution of Boosting Algorithms - From Machine Learning to Statistical Modelling

The concept of boosting emerged from the field of machine learning. The basic idea is to boost the accuracy of a weak classifying tool by combining various instances into a more accurate prediction. This general concept was later adapted to the field of statistical modelling. This review article attempts to highlight this evolution of boosting algorithms from machine learning to statistical modelling. We describe the AdaBoost algorithm for classification as well as the two most prominent statistical boosting approaches, gradient boosting and likelihood-based boosting. Although both appraoches are typically treated separately in the literature, they share the same methodological roots and follow the same fundamental concepts. Compared to the initial machine learning algorithms, which must be seen as black-box prediction schemes, statistical boosting result in statistical models which offer a straight-forward interpretation. We highlight the methodological background and present the most common software implementations. Worked out examples and corresponding R code can be found in the Appendix.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2014

Extending Statistical Boosting - An Overview of Recent Methodological Developments

Boosting algorithms to simultaneously estimate and select predictor effects in statistical models have gained substantial interest during the last decade. This review article aims to highlight recent methodological developments regarding boosting algorithms for statistical modelling especially focusing on topics relevant for biomedical research. We suggest a unified framework for gradient boosting and likelihood-based boosting (statistical boosting) which have been addressed strictly separated in the literature up to now. Statistical boosting algorithms have been adapted to carry out unbiased variable selection and automated model choice during the fitting process and can nowadays be applied in almost any possible type of regression setting in combination with a large amount of different types of predictor effects. The methodological developments on statistical boosting during the last ten years can be grouped into three different lines of research: (i) efforts to ensure variable selection leading to sparser models, (ii) developments regarding different types of predictor effects and their selection (model choice), (iii) approaches to extend the statistical boosting framework to new regression settings.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2014

gamboostLSS: An R Package for Model Building and Variable Selection in the GAMLSS Framework

Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) are a flexible class of regression models that allow to model multiple parameters of a distribution function, such as the mean and the standard deviation, simultaneously. With the R package gamboostLSS, we provide a boosting method to fit these models. Variable selection and model choice are naturally available within this regularized regression framework. To introduce and illustrate the R package gamboostLSS and its infrastructure, we use a data set on stunted growth in India. In addition to the specification and application of the model itself, we present a variety of convenience functions, including methods for tuning parameter selection, prediction and visualization of results. The package gamboostLSS is available from CRAN (http://cran.r-project.org/package=gamboostLSS).

stat.CO↗

arXiv2013

Boosting the concordance index for survival data - a unified framework to derive and evaluate biomarker combinations

The development of molecular signatures for the prediction of time-to-event outcomes is a methodologically challenging task in bioinformatics and biostatistics. Although there are numerous approaches for the derivation of marker combinations and their evaluation, the underlying methodology often suffers from the problem that different optimization criteria are mixed during the feature selection, estimation and evaluation steps. This might result in marker combinations that are only suboptimal regarding the evaluation criterion of interest. To address this issue, we propose a unified framework to derive and evaluate biomarker combinations. Our approach is based on the concordance index for time-to-event data, which is a non-parametric measure to quantify the discrimatory power of a prediction rule. Specifically, we propose a component-wise boosting algorithm that results in linear biomarker combinations that are optimal with respect to a smoothed version of the concordance index. We investigate the performance of our algorithm in a large-scale simulation study and in two molecular data sets for the prediction of survival in breast cancer patients. Our numerical results show that the new approach is not only methodologically sound but can also lead to a higher discriminatory power than traditional approaches for the derivation of gene signatures.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2007

Anomalous Abelian solitons

The chiral Abelian Higgs model contains an interesting class of solitons found by Rubakov and Tavkhelidze. These objects carry non-zero fermion number $N_F$ (or Chern-Simons number $N_{CS}$, what is the same because of the chiral anomaly) and are stable for sufficiently large $N_F$. In this paper we study the properties of these anomalous solitons. We find that their energy-versus-fermion-number ratio is given by $E\sim N_{CS}^{3/4}$ or $E\sim N_{CS}^{2/3}$ depending on the structure of the scalar potential. For the former case we demonstrate that there is a lower bound on the soliton energy, which reads $E\geq c N_{CS}^{3/4}$, where $c$ is some parameter expressed through the masses and coupling constants of the theory. We construct the anomalous solitons numerically accounting both for Higgs and gauge dynamics and show that they are not spherically symmetric. The thin wall approximation valid for macroscopic solutions with $N_{CS} \gg 1$ is discussed as well.

hep-th↗