Matthieu Dutel | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Vulnerability Modeling for the Adaptation of Physical Systems to Climate Change Extremes

Climate change is modifying the frequency and intensity of extreme hazards in a non-uniform spatial manner, increasing the risk of damage for existing physical systems. Vulnerability modeling based on vulnerability curves provides a quantitative link between hazard intensity and physical damage, supporting adaptation strategies. This paper proposes conceptual frameworks for vulnerability models of physical systems in the context of climate change, aimed at supporting vulnerability based adaptation. A theoretical use case illustrates the methodology: potential damage on power transmission towers facing wind gust hazards across France, modeled through vulnerability curves. Despite strong assumptions, this theoretical case study demonstrates how vulnerability models can guide adaptation by reducing intrinsic vulnerability, adapting the physical system to maintain acceptable damage levels under evolving climate extremes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Structure of System-Specific Hazard Modeling for Physical Infrastructures in a Climate Change Context

This paper addresses the definition and modeling of hazards in the context of physical systems, particularly infrastructures, that are affected by climate change. The paper highlights that hazards are system-dependent, meaning what constitutes a hazard for one system (e.g., humans) may not be the same for another (e.g., infrastructures). The paper also highlights that extreme intensity distribution may evolve in a region without necessarily constituting a hazard for a specific system. These distinctions are crucial for risk assessment and adaptation strategies in a changing climate. The paper implements a simple threshold-based hazard model -Boolean Hazard Model with Probability -to focus exclusively on system-specific hazard definition in climatechange context. Use cases illustrate how this approach adapts to different systems and hazard types. The model produces time-evolving hazard maps, delivering hazard data tailored to both hazard type and infrastructure characteristics. The model provides hazard data tailored to specific hazard types and physical systems, with a focus on infrastructure. The use cases demonstrate their practical value and potential for broader application in multi-infrastructure and multi-hazard exposure modeling.

physics.soc-ph↗