arXiv subjects

Matthijs Romeijnders

Publications and source records attributed to Matthijs Romeijnders.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Event-based spatiotemporal networks for modelling emergent phenomena in complex systems

Complex systems display emergent phenomena that vary significantly across spatial and temporal scales. These variations originate from fine-grained system processes, yet arriving at macroscopic dynamics from micro-level data -- particularly when large, high-resolution datasets are available -- remains a persistent challenge. Here we develop event-based spatiotemporal networks, a computational modelling framework that encodes system processes as discrete events anchored in space and time. Event-based spatiotemporal networks offer a unified, flexible and efficient approach to generate emergent behaviour in complex systems across space and time from these events. We demonstrate the effectiveness of event-based spatiotemporal networks through two illustrative real-world applications. First, following a local outbreak of a novel respiratory pathogen in the Netherlands, spatiotemporal networks enable fine-grained tracking of transmission routes and infection patterns through space and time. Second, we use spatiotemporal networks to model propagation of delays in a public transportation system (S-bahn) around Zürich, Switzerland. We also discuss broader uses of event-based spatiotemporal networks in fields like developmental biology and community ecology, where focusing on events rather than static system states can improve data analysis, simulation, and collection strategies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Risk mapping novel respiratory pathogens with large-scale dynamic contact networks

Background: Human-to-human transmission of pathogens fundamentally depends on interactions among infectious and susceptible individuals, yet traditional population-scale models often overlook the stochastic, behaviour-driven, and highly heterogeneous nature of these interactions. Methods: Here, we develop a large-scale actor-based model capturing early epidemic dynamics of a novel respiratory pathogen on dynamic contact networks. We build these networks upon explicitly integrating detailed demographic and residential registry data from the Netherlands. The model simulates the Dutch population characterised by age, residency and mobility patterns, with actors interacting stochastically across households, workplaces and schools. Results: We show how the geographic and demographic profiles of initial cases impact transmission trajectories, with densely populated municipalities in the country's western core acting as key hubs driving epidemic spread. The framework enables rigorous assessment of intervention strategies incorporating behavioural adaptations. As case studies, we quantify the effects of symptomatic self-isolation and travel restrictions to and from major urban centres, highlighting their potential to modulate epidemic outcomes. Conclusions: Our findings underscore the necessity of integrating fine-scale human-to-human contact realism and population scale in epidemic forecasting and control.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Timeliness criticality in complex systems

In complex systems, external parameters often determine the phase in which the system operates, i.e., its macroscopic behavior. For nearly a century, statistical physics has extensively studied systems' transitions across phases, (universal) critical exponents, and related dynamical properties. Here we consider the functionality of systems, notably operations in socio-technical ones, production in economic ones and, more generally, any schedule-based system, where timing is of crucial importance. We introduce a stylized model of delay propagation on temporal networks, where the magnitude of delay-mitigating buffer acts as a control parameter. The model exhibits {\it timeliness criticality}, a novel form of critical behavior. We characterize fluctuations near criticality, commonly referred to as ``avalanches'', and identify the corresponding critical exponents. The model exhibits timeliness criticality also when run on real-world temporal systems such as production networks. Additionally, we explore potential connections with the Mode-Coupling Theory of glasses, the depinning transition and the directed polymer problem.

physics.soc-ph↗