arXiv subjects

Matthijs T. J. Spaan

Publications and source records attributed to Matthijs T. J. Spaan.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Bayesian Meta-Reinforcement Learning with Laplace Variational Recurrent Networks

Meta-reinforcement learning trains a single reinforcement learning agent on a distribution of tasks to quickly generalize to new tasks outside of the training set at test time. From a Bayesian perspective, one can interpret this as performing amortized variational inference on the posterior distribution over training tasks. Among the various meta-reinforcement learning approaches, a common method is to represent this distribution with a point-estimate using a recurrent neural network. We show how one can augment this point estimate to give full distributions through the Laplace approximation, either at the start of, during, or after learning, without modifying the base model architecture. With our approximation, we are able to estimate distribution statistics (e.g., the entropy) of non-Bayesian agents and observe that point-estimate based methods produce overconfident estimators while not satisfying consistency. Furthermore, when comparing our approach to full-distribution based learning of the task posterior, our method performs on par with variational baselines while having much fewer parameters.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

VeRecycle: Reclaiming Guarantees from Probabilistic Certificates for Stochastic Dynamical Systems after Change

Autonomous systems operating in the real world encounter a range of uncertainties. Probabilistic neural Lyapunov certification is a powerful approach to proving safety of nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems. When faced with changes beyond the modeled uncertainties, e.g., unidentified obstacles, probabilistic certificates must be transferred to the new system dynamics. However, even when the changes are localized in a known part of the state space, state-of-the-art requires complete re-certification, which is particularly costly for neural certificates. We introduce VeRecycle, the first framework to formally reclaim guarantees for discrete-time stochastic dynamical systems. VeRecycle efficiently reuses probabilistic certificates when the system dynamics deviate only in a given subset of states. We present a general theoretical justification and algorithmic implementation. Our experimental evaluation shows scenarios where VeRecycle both saves significant computational effort and achieves competitive probabilistic guarantees in compositional neural control.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Contextual Similarity Distillation: Ensemble Uncertainties with a Single Model

Uncertainty quantification is a critical aspect of reinforcement learning and deep learning, with numerous applications ranging from efficient exploration and stable offline reinforcement learning to outlier detection in medical diagnostics. The scale of modern neural networks, however, complicates the use of many theoretically well-motivated approaches such as full Bayesian inference. Approximate methods like deep ensembles can provide reliable uncertainty estimates but still remain computationally expensive. In this work, we propose contextual similarity distillation, a novel approach that explicitly estimates the variance of an ensemble of deep neural networks with a single model, without ever learning or evaluating such an ensemble in the first place. Our method builds on the predictable learning dynamics of wide neural networks, governed by the neural tangent kernel, to derive an efficient approximation of the predictive variance of an infinite ensemble. Specifically, we reinterpret the computation of ensemble variance as a supervised regression problem with kernel similarities as regression targets. The resulting model can estimate predictive variance at inference time with a single forward pass, and can make use of unlabeled target-domain data or data augmentations to refine its uncertainty estimates. We empirically validate our method across a variety of out-of-distribution detection benchmarks and sparse-reward reinforcement learning environments. We find that our single-model method performs competitively and sometimes superior to ensemble-based baselines and serves as a reliable signal for efficient exploration. These results, we believe, position contextual similarity distillation as a principled and scalable alternative for uncertainty quantification in reinforcement learning and general deep learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Diverse Projection Ensembles for Distributional Reinforcement Learning

In contrast to classical reinforcement learning (RL), distributional RL algorithms aim to learn the distribution of returns rather than their expected value. Since the nature of the return distribution is generally unknown a priori or arbitrarily complex, a common approach finds approximations within a set of representable, parametric distributions. Typically, this involves a projection of the unconstrained distribution onto the set of simplified distributions. We argue that this projection step entails a strong inductive bias when coupled with neural networks and gradient descent, thereby profoundly impacting the generalization behavior of learned models. In order to facilitate reliable uncertainty estimation through diversity, we study the combination of several different projections and representations in a distributional ensemble. We establish theoretical properties of such projection ensembles and derive an algorithm that uses ensemble disagreement, measured by the average 1-Wasserstein distance, as a bonus for deep exploration. We evaluate our algorithm on the behavior suite benchmark and VizDoom and find that diverse projection ensembles lead to significant performance improvements over existing methods on a variety of tasks with the most pronounced gains in directed exploration problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Illuminating Blind Spots of Language Models with Targeted Agent-in-the-Loop Synthetic Data

Language models (LMs) have achieved impressive accuracy across a variety of tasks but remain vulnerable to high-confidence misclassifications, also referred to as unknown unknowns (UUs). These UUs cluster into blind spots in the feature space, leading to significant risks in high-stakes applications. This is particularly relevant for smaller, lightweight LMs that are more susceptible to such errors. While the identification of UUs has been extensively studied, their mitigation remains an open challenge, including how to use identified UUs to eliminate unseen blind spots. In this work, we propose a novel approach to address blind spot mitigation through the use of intelligent agents -- either humans or large LMs -- as teachers to characterize UU-type errors. By leveraging the generalization capabilities of intelligent agents, we identify patterns in high-confidence misclassifications and use them to generate targeted synthetic samples to improve model robustness and reduce blind spots. We conduct an extensive evaluation of our method on three classification tasks and demonstrate its effectiveness in reducing the number of UUs, all while maintaining a similar level of accuracy. We find that the effectiveness of human computation has a high ceiling but is highly dependent on familiarity with the underlying task. Moreover, the cost gap between humans and LMs surpasses an order of magnitude, as LMs attain human-like generalization and generation performance while being more scalable.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Positive Experience Reflection for Agents in Interactive Text Environments

Intelligent agents designed for interactive environments face significant challenges in text-based games, a domain that demands complex reasoning and adaptability. While agents based on large language models (LLMs) using self-reflection have shown promise, they struggle when initially successful and exhibit reduced effectiveness when using smaller LLMs. We introduce Sweet&Sour, a novel approach that addresses these limitations in existing reflection methods by incorporating positive experiences and managed memory to enrich the context available to the agent at decision time. Our comprehensive analysis spans both closed- and open-source LLMs and demonstrates the effectiveness of Sweet&Sour in improving agent performance, particularly in scenarios where previous approaches fall short.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Explore-Go: Leveraging Exploration for Generalisation in Deep Reinforcement Learning

One of the remaining challenges in reinforcement learning is to develop agents that can generalise to novel scenarios they might encounter once deployed. This challenge is often framed in a multi-task setting where agents train on a fixed set of tasks and have to generalise to new tasks. Recent work has shown that in this setting increased exploration during training can be leveraged to increase the generalisation performance of the agent. This makes sense when the states encountered during testing can actually be explored during training. In this paper, we provide intuition why exploration can also benefit generalisation to states that cannot be explicitly encountered during training. Additionally, we propose a novel method Explore-Go that exploits this intuition by increasing the number of states on which the agent trains. Explore-Go effectively increases the starting state distribution of the agent and as a result can be used in conjunction with most existing on-policy or off-policy reinforcement learning algorithms. We show empirically that our method can increase generalisation performance in an illustrative environment and on the Procgen benchmark.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Bad Habits: Policy Confounding and Out-of-Trajectory Generalization in RL

Reinforcement learning agents tend to develop habits that are effective only under specific policies. Following an initial exploration phase where agents try out different actions, they eventually converge onto a particular policy. As this occurs, the distribution over state-action trajectories becomes narrower, leading agents to repeatedly experience the same transitions. This repetitive exposure fosters spurious correlations between certain observations and rewards. Agents may then pick up on these correlations and develop simplistic habits tailored to the specific set of trajectories dictated by their policy. The problem is that these habits may yield incorrect outcomes when agents are forced to deviate from their typical trajectories, prompted by changes in the environment. This paper presents a mathematical characterization of this phenomenon, termed policy confounding, and illustrates, through a series of examples, the circumstances under which it occurs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Distributed Influence-Augmented Local Simulators for Parallel MARL in Large Networked Systems

Due to its high sample complexity, simulation is, as of today, critical for the successful application of reinforcement learning. Many real-world problems, however, exhibit overly complex dynamics, which makes their full-scale simulation computationally slow. In this paper, we show how to decompose large networked systems of many agents into multiple local components such that we can build separate simulators that run independently and in parallel. To monitor the influence that the different local components exert on one another, each of these simulators is equipped with a learned model that is periodically trained on real trajectories. Our empirical results reveal that distributing the simulation among different processes not only makes it possible to train large multi-agent systems in just a few hours but also helps mitigate the negative effects of simultaneous learning.

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arXiv2024

When Do Off-Policy and On-Policy Policy Gradient Methods Align?

Policy gradient methods are widely adopted reinforcement learning algorithms for tasks with continuous action spaces. These methods succeeded in many application domains, however, because of their notorious sample inefficiency their use remains limited to problems where fast and accurate simulations are available. A common way to improve sample efficiency is to modify their objective function to be computable from off-policy samples without importance sampling. A well-established off-policy objective is the excursion objective. This work studies the difference between the excursion objective and the traditional on-policy objective, which we refer to as the on-off gap. We provide the first theoretical analysis showing conditions to reduce the on-off gap while establishing empirical evidence of shortfalls arising when these conditions are not met.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

The Role of Diverse Replay for Generalisation in Reinforcement Learning

In reinforcement learning (RL), key components of many algorithms are the exploration strategy and replay buffer. These strategies regulate what environment data is collected and trained on and have been extensively studied in the RL literature. In this paper, we investigate the impact of these components in the context of generalisation in multi-task RL. We investigate the hypothesis that collecting and training on more diverse data from the training environments will improve zero-shot generalisation to new tasks. We motivate mathematically and show empirically that generalisation to tasks that are "reachable'' during training is improved by increasing the diversity of transitions in the replay buffer. Furthermore, we show empirically that this same strategy also shows improvement for generalisation to similar but "unreachable'' tasks which could be due to improved generalisation of the learned latent representations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Reinforcement Learning by Guided Safe Exploration

Safety is critical to broadening the application of reinforcement learning (RL). Often, we train RL agents in a controlled environment, such as a laboratory, before deploying them in the real world. However, the real-world target task might be unknown prior to deployment. Reward-free RL trains an agent without the reward to adapt quickly once the reward is revealed. We consider the constrained reward-free setting, where an agent (the guide) learns to explore safely without the reward signal. This agent is trained in a controlled environment, which allows unsafe interactions and still provides the safety signal. After the target task is revealed, safety violations are not allowed anymore. Thus, the guide is leveraged to compose a safe behaviour policy. Drawing from transfer learning, we also regularize a target policy (the student) towards the guide while the student is unreliable and gradually eliminate the influence of the guide as training progresses. The empirical analysis shows that this method can achieve safe transfer learning and helps the student solve the target task faster.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Abstraction-Refinement for Hierarchical Probabilistic Models

Markov decision processes are a ubiquitous formalism for modelling systems with non-deterministic and probabilistic behavior. Verification of these models is subject to the famous state space explosion problem. We alleviate this problem by exploiting a hierarchical structure with repetitive parts. This structure not only occurs naturally in robotics, but also in probabilistic programs describing, e.g., network protocols. Such programs often repeatedly call a subroutine with similar behavior. In this paper, we focus on a local case, in which the subroutines have a limited effect on the overall system state. The key ideas to accelerate analysis of such programs are (1) to treat the behavior of the subroutine as uncertain and only remove this uncertainty by a detailed analysis if needed, and (2) to abstract similar subroutines into a parametric template, and then analyse this template. These two ideas are embedded into an abstraction-refinement loop that analyses hierarchical MDPs. A prototypical implementation shows the efficacy of the approach.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Influence-Augmented Local Simulators: A Scalable Solution for Fast Deep RL in Large Networked Systems

Learning effective policies for real-world problems is still an open challenge for the field of reinforcement learning (RL). The main limitation being the amount of data needed and the pace at which that data can be obtained. In this paper, we study how to build lightweight simulators of complicated systems that can run sufficiently fast for deep RL to be applicable. We focus on domains where agents interact with a reduced portion of a larger environment while still being affected by the global dynamics. Our method combines the use of local simulators with learned models that mimic the influence of the global system. The experiments reveal that incorporating this idea into the deep RL workflow can considerably accelerate the training process and presents several opportunities for the future.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Exploiting Submodular Value Functions For Scaling Up Active Perception

In active perception tasks, an agent aims to select sensory actions that reduce its uncertainty about one or more hidden variables. While partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a natural model for such problems, reward functions that directly penalize uncertainty in the agent's belief can remove the piecewise-linear and convex property of the value function required by most POMDP planners. Furthermore, as the number of sensors available to the agent grows, the computational cost of POMDP planning grows exponentially with it, making POMDP planning infeasible with traditional methods. In this article, we address a twofold challenge of modeling and planning for active perception tasks. We show the mathematical equivalence of $ρ$POMDP and POMDP-IR, two frameworks for modeling active perception tasks, that restore the PWLC property of the value function. To efficiently plan for active perception tasks, we identify and exploit the independence properties of POMDP-IR to reduce the computational cost of solving POMDP-IR (and $ρ$POMDP). We propose greedy point-based value iteration (PBVI), a new POMDP planning method that uses greedy maximization to greatly improve scalability in the action space of an active perception POMDP. Furthermore, we show that, under certain conditions, including submodularity, the value function computed using greedy PBVI is guaranteed to have bounded error with respect to the optimal value function. We establish the conditions under which the value function of an active perception POMDP is guaranteed to be submodular. Finally, we present a detailed empirical analysis on a dataset collected from a multi-camera tracking system employed in a shopping mall. Our method achieves similar performance to existing methods but at a fraction of the computational cost leading to better scalability for solving active perception tasks.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2016

Solving Transition-Independent Multi-agent MDPs with Sparse Interactions (Extended version)

In cooperative multi-agent sequential decision making under uncertainty, agents must coordinate to find an optimal joint policy that maximises joint value. Typical algorithms exploit additive structure in the value function, but in the fully-observable multi-agent MDP setting (MMDP) such structure is not present. We propose a new optimal solver for transition-independent MMDPs, in which agents can only affect their own state but their reward depends on joint transitions. We represent these dependencies compactly in conditional return graphs (CRGs). Using CRGs the value of a joint policy and the bounds on partially specified joint policies can be efficiently computed. We propose CoRe, a novel branch-and-bound policy search algorithm building on CRGs. CoRe typically requires less runtime than the available alternatives and finds solutions to problems previously unsolvable.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2015

Influence-Optimistic Local Values for Multiagent Planning --- Extended Version

Recent years have seen the development of methods for multiagent planning under uncertainty that scale to tens or even hundreds of agents. However, most of these methods either make restrictive assumptions on the problem domain, or provide approximate solutions without any guarantees on quality. Methods in the former category typically build on heuristic search using upper bounds on the value function. Unfortunately, no techniques exist to compute such upper bounds for problems with non-factored value functions. To allow for meaningful benchmarking through measurable quality guarantees on a very general class of problems, this paper introduces a family of influence-optimistic upper bounds for factored decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs) that do not have factored value functions. Intuitively, we derive bounds on very large multiagent planning problems by subdividing them in sub-problems, and at each of these sub-problems making optimistic assumptions with respect to the influence that will be exerted by the rest of the system. We numerically compare the different upper bounds and demonstrate how we can achieve a non-trivial guarantee that a heuristic solution for problems with hundreds of agents is close to optimal. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the upper bounds may improve the effectiveness of heuristic influence search, and discuss further potential applications to multiagent planning.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2014

Exploiting Agent and Type Independence in Collaborative Graphical Bayesian Games

Efficient collaborative decision making is an important challenge for multiagent systems. Finding optimal joint actions is especially challenging when each agent has only imperfect information about the state of its environment. Such problems can be modeled as collaborative Bayesian games in which each agent receives private information in the form of its type. However, representing and solving such games requires space and computation time exponential in the number of agents. This article introduces collaborative graphical Bayesian games (CGBGs), which facilitate more efficient collaborative decision making by decomposing the global payoff function as the sum of local payoff functions that depend on only a few agents. We propose a framework for the efficient solution of CGBGs based on the insight that they posses two different types of independence, which we call agent independence and type independence. In particular, we present a factor graph representation that captures both forms of independence and thus enables efficient solutions. In addition, we show how this representation can provide leverage in sequential tasks by using it to construct a novel method for decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes. Experimental results in both random and benchmark tasks demonstrate the improved scalability of our methods compared to several existing alternatives.

cs.AI↗