arXiv subjects

Mattia Bulla

Publications and source records attributed to Mattia Bulla.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Black hole-neutron star binaries with high spins and large mass asymmetries: III. Properties of the ejected material and its electromagnetic signatures

Compact binary systems consisting of a black hole (BH) and a neutron star (NS) are expected to provide detectable signals both in the gravitational wave and in the electromagnetic channels, thus representing excellent sources for multi-messenger astronomy. In this third paper in a series, we report on the geometric and thermodynamic properties of the purely dynamical ejecta component modeled in our general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamical simulations of BHNS systems over a comprehensive binary parameter space consisting of large mass ratio and high BH spin. The tidal disruption and dynamical mass ejection is studied by monitoring the transfer of energy and angular momentum to matter for the particular case of a highly unequal-mass binary with large BH spin, extending known results for low-mass-ratio, irrotational BHNS binaries. By varying the binary parameters, we investigate their influence on the geometric, thermodynamic, and kinematic properties of the ejected matter. Furthermore, we employ the nuclear-reaction network SkyNet to obtain the elemental abundances resulting from the r-process active in the ejecta and study how they depend on the properties of the progenitor objects. Finally, using the radiative-transfer code POSSIS, we compute the kilonova light-curves from the results of our simulations, discuss their bolometric and optical/near-infrared evolution, and compare them with the AT2017gfo data and upper-limits for S190814bv, finding overall consistency.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2026

The 91T/99aa-like Type Ia Supernova 2019vrq, Part I: Photometry, Spectroscopy, and Spectropolarimetry of a Nearly Standard Candle

Among the various major subtypes of Type Ia supernovae (SNe), the luminous 1991T-like (Filippenko et al. 1992; Phillips et al. 1992) and 1999aa-like (Krisciunas et al. 2000; Garavini et al. 2004) events stand out as particularly important for constraining the explosion mechanism. Their white dwarf (WD) progenitors are thought to have masses close to or exceeding the Chandrasekhar limit. We present spectrophotometric and polarimetric time-series observations of the overluminous Type Ia SN2019vrq. Between -9 and +12 days relative to the light-curve peak, its continuum polarization is consistent with zero, as seen in most normal-bright SNeIa and despite a possible rise up to 0.2% toward longer wavelengths as seen in subluminous SNeIa. Polarization across major spectral features is marginal ($\lesssim$0.3%) with the exception of the high-velocity CaII near-infrared triplet, which reaches $\sim$0.5%. This low polarization indicates a substantially spherically symmetric electron-scattering photosphere and minimal large-scale ejecta asymmetry. Early-time spectra reveal hot, doubly ionized ejecta dominated by SiIII and blended iron-group features. Intermediate-mass-element lines, such as CaII and SiII, are more clearly seen than in 91T-like events, though these lines remain weaker than in normal SNeIa. The intrinsically higher peak luminosity of overluminous 91T/99aa-like SNeIa (Yang et al. 2022; Phillips et al. 2024), their comparatively short formation timescale for a massive WD progenitor - a channel that becomes more common toward high redshift, and the moderate viewing-angle dependence of their spectrophotometric properties as inferred from their persistently low polarization, together suggest that this subclass may serve as a promising standard candle at high redshift.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Binary neutron stars in the next-generation era: Multi-messenger detection prospects and constraints on the equation of state, mass distribution, and cosmology

Next-generation gravitational-wave (GW) observatories will provide crucial insights into the nature of neutron star (NS) matter and the cosmological expansion history. We estimate the number of multi-messenger detections from binary neutron stars (BNS) with the Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE), and project the resulting constraints on the equation of state (EOS), BNS mass distribution, and cosmology via joint hierarchical Bayesian inference. Assuming a local merger rate of 106.6 Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$ and considering two different mass functions, a narrow one centred around 1.4 $M_\odot$ and a wide one ranging between 1.1--2 $M_\odot$, we find that for ET, our mock follow-up algorithm results in at least $\sim40$ and up to $\sim100$ successfully identified electromagnetic counterparts per year, depending on the detector layout and mass distribution. In a joint network with CE, the number of multi-messenger detections can range from $\sim 200$ to $\sim500$. Additionally, several more afterglows from gamma-ray bursts or KNe could be found with dedicated late-time observations. Based on the identified multi-messenger events, we perform an injection campaign to hierarchically constrain the EOS, mass distribution, and cosmology in a fully Bayesian framework. Focussing on ET alone, we show how in an ideal scenario, GW signals, KNe, and host galaxy redshifts can constrain the canonical NS radius $R_{1.4}$ within $\sim 0.2$ km and the Hubble constant $H_0$ within $\sim 1$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, while recovering the essential features of the mass distribution. By comparing inference results that rely solely on GW data and those that incorporate light curve information, we find that while KN light-curve posteriors have a negligible impact on the EOS constraints, they can benefit the inference of cosmological parameters.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

nmma: An extended Bayesian framework for Nuclear Multimessenger Astronomy in the Era of Next-Generation Detectors

Context. The joint analysis of different (astro-)physical messengers, in particular gravitational-wave data and electromagnetic follow-up observations, allows us to establish, explore and deepen links between different physical fields. As new survey capacities and improved detection methods will lead to a significant increase in the number of multimessenger detections in the upcoming decades, efficient and versatile software frameworks are essential to maximise the scientific outcome of such multimessenger studies. Aims. We present a major upgrade to the Nuclear Multimessenger Astronomy (nmma) framework, incorporating various recent developments in theoretical modelling and machine learning in a modularised and easily extendable Bayesian framework. For the first time, this allows direct sampling on nuclear parameters alongside gravitational-wave, kilonova and afterglow parameters. Methods. We combine fast surrogate models for electromagnetic transients with speed-ups from emulators that map nuclear parameters to macroscopic neutron-star properties. Additional acceleration methods for the evaluation of state-of-the-art waveform approximants enable full Bayesian analyses of multimessenger events at the speed required in the era of next-generation detectors. Results. We demonstrate the capabilities of the upgraded nmma framework through a series of representative applications. Reanalysing the 2017 multi-messenger detection of a neutron-star merger, we achieve 20- to 60-fold speed-ups while using more detailed physical models compared to previous studies. Moreover, we demonstrate for a hypothetical future detection how we can simultaneously constrain nuclear parameters and the Hubble parameter with robustly quantified uncertainties.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Rapid and robust simulation-based inference for kilonovae

With the next generation of both electromagnetic and gravitational wave observatories beginning to come online, rapid analysis methods for kilonova data are becoming increasingly important in astronomy. Traditional Bayesian parameter estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is time-consuming and relies on explicit likelihood approximations that can break down when modeling uncertainties are significant. We develop a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework for kilonova parameter estimation using density-estimation likelihood-free inference. The framework uses a Gaussian process emulator trained on $\sim 1300$ POSSIS simulations. We demonstrate that SBI provides a rapid alternative to MCMC that is robust to likelihood misspecification. The standard Gaussian likelihood approximation fails to capture the non-Gaussian, correlated structure of emulator uncertainty; SBI learns this structure directly from forward simulations. Simulation studies show that the SBI method accurately recovers injected parameters, while the MCMC suffers from systematic bias caused by likelihood misspecification. This problem persists when analyzing AT2017gfo, where a subset of the MCMC posteriors pile up at prior boundaries and the SBI posteriors do not. The SBI framework infers a total ejecta mass of $\sim 0.087 M_{\odot}$ dominated by lanthanide-poor ejecta and excludes toroidal and peanut ejecta geometries at the 99th percentile for both components. The SBI framework generates $\sim 2 \times 10^{4}$ posterior samples in seconds.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Electromagnetic Follow-up of the Sub-Solar Mass Gravitational Wave Candidate S251112cm: Kilonova Constraints and a Coincident IIb Supernova

On November 12th, 2025 the LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA (LVK) collaboration reported gravitational waves (GWs) from a compact object merger candidate (S251112cm) with at least one sub-solar mass component. Using the Dark Energy Camera (DECam), the Fraunhofer Telescope at Wendelstein Observatory (FTW), and the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), we surveyed $56\%$ of the GW localization region beginning $2.4$~hours after the GW alert. We find no kilonova (KN) counterpart, and use radiative-transfer models to rule out $42\%$ (ZTF), $68\%$ (DECam), and $92\%$ (FTW) of the KN models as possible emission from this GW candidate. Within the recently proposed disk-fragmentation (``superkilonova'') model for generating sub-solar mass neutron star mergers from stellar core-collapse, the delay between the supernova explosion time and the GW merger time is estimated to be less than a few days. Searching this time window prior to the GW event, we identify and spectroscopically classify a IIb supernova (SN~2025adtq), with a spatial association odds ratio of $\log_{10}\mathcal{I} \approx 4.8$, a chance coincidence probability of ${\sim}2$--$9\%$, and an estimated explosion time ${\sim}2$ days prior to S251112cm. SN~2025adtq is the second Type~IIb supernova found in spatial and temporal coincidence with a sub-solar mass GW candidate, following the previously reported S250818k/SN~2025ulz association; jointly, we measure an odds ratio that favors the association hypothesis over the null, however, when conditioned on finding a coincident supernova by chance, the odds ratio disfavors association. Together, these results provide suggestive but inconclusive evidence for the superkilonova formation channel.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Optical transients from non-explosive double white-dwarf mergers: the case of a central neutron star remnant

Discoveries of ultra-massive magnetic white dwarfs (WDs) and peculiar pulsars have been proposed to originate in double white dwarf (DWD) mergers. There are three possible post-merger central remnants of non-explosive mergers: 1) a stable sub-Chandrasekhar WD; 2) a rapidly rotating super-Chandrasekhar WD; 3) a neutron star (NS). In this work, we explore the thermal transient arising from non-explosive DWD mergers that leave an NS remnant from the prompt collapse of the merged core. The transient is powered by the cooling of the expanding dynamical ejecta, with energy injection from magnetic dipole radiation, which depends on the dipole factor $D = B_d^2/P_0^4$, with $B_d$ and $P_0$ being the surface magnetic field strength and initial rotation period of the newborn NS. We simulate lightcurves in the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) bands and estimate the horizon and detection rates for these transients across a range of model parameters. We find LSST detection horizons upper limits ranging $30$--$820$ Mpc and corresponding detection rates $10^2$--$10^6$ yr$^{-1}$ for $\log D = 24$--$40$. Accounting for the survey cadence, we find that only configurations with $\log D = 36$--$40$ are detectable within $240$--$760$ Mpc, with detection rates $10^4$--$10^5$ yr$^{-1}$. Combined searches across surveys can compensate for the low cadence and improve the detection rates of fast and less energetic sources. Multi-wavelength campaigns can aid in detecting the spindown radiation at higher energies observable after the optical transient. Observations of these transients will provide direct evidence of the non-explosive DWD mergers, characterise the remnants and progenitor parameters, and the fraction of explosive and non-explosive mergers.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

The MARTINI Platform (I): Se I-X atomic calculation and expansion opacity for early-stage kilonova spectral analysis

Kilonovae represent key sites of r-process nucleosynthesis, making opacity estimation and spectral analysis crucial for constraining their composition. Since light r-process elements shape the early ($\sim$0.5-1.5$\mathrm{d}$) ejecta opacity, a detailed study of the selenium element with a focus on atomic data calculation, expansion opacity estimation and spectral analysis is presented. Se atomic data are calculated from Se I to Se X using the GRASP2018 code. A systematic analysis and evaluation of their precision is performed through detailed comparison with the NIST ASD, and other works available in the literature. These atomic data are then used to estimate expansion opacity at different temperatures (e.g., T=5000 K, 10000 K, 20000 K, 100000 K) and densities (e.g., $ρ= 10^{-13}\,\mathrm{g\,cm^{-3}},\,3\times10^{-12}\,\mathrm{g\,cm^{-3}}$). Spectral analysis has been performed with radiative transfer code POSSIS with a pre-computed opacity grid calculated with new densities and temperatures, ranging from -19.5 to -4.5 $\mathrm{g\,cm^{-3}}$ in log-scale and from 1 000 to 51 000 K, respectively. Two scenarios are considered: one in which the opacity contribution comes from 100\% Se ejecta, and another in which Se contributes only partially to the total opacity ($\sim$ 10\% of the total mass). Se atomic calculations show a good agreement with NIST ASD, with accurate energy levels and transitions determined alongside atomic data for higher ionisation stages not fully covered by NIST. The expansion opacities calculated with these new Se data exhibit differences in comparison to existing literature works. Se spectral features can only be observed in the KN scenario consisting of 100\% Se. When Se accounts for about 10\% of the total KN mass, these features become undetectable. All Se results are now available in the new open-source MARTINI platform dedicated to element nucleosynthesis.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Numerical simulations of black hole-neutron star mergers with equal and near-equal mass ratios

The detection of GW230529_181500 suggested the existence of more symmetric black hole-neutron star mergers where the black hole mass can be as low as 2.6 times that of the neutron star. Black hole-neutron star binaries with even more symmetric mass ratios are expected to leave behind massive disks capable of driving bright electromagnetic transients like kilonovae. Currently, there is only a limited number of numerical-relativity simulations of black hole-neutron star mergers in this regime, which are vital for accurate gravitational waveform models and analytical fitting formulas for the remnant properties. Insufficient accuracy of these may lead to misclassification of real events and potentially missed opportunities to locate their electromagnetic counterparts. To fill this gap in the parameter space coverage, we perform simulations of black hole-neutron star mergers with mass ratios $q \in \{1, 1/2, 1/3\}$. We find the gravitational waveform models do not show good agreement with the numerical waveforms, with dephasing at the level of around 1 rad at the merger. We find that the masses of the dynamical ejecta and disk are in good agreement with the available fitting formulas. The analytical formulas for the remnant black hole are in excellent agreement for the black hole mass, but are less accurate with the predictions for its spin. Moreover, we analyze the remnant disk structure and dynamics, deriving the rotation law and identifying global trapped $g$-mode density oscillations. We distinguish three types of accretion in the postmerger and find modulation of the accretion rate by the global oscillations of the disk. Finally, we model the kilonova emission these systems would produce and find that most of them are potentially detectable by Vera C. Rubin Observatory within four days after merger, and by DECam within two days after merger if located at a distance of 200 Mpc.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

WINTER on S250206dm: A near-infrared search for an electromagnetic counterpart to a gravitational-wave event

We present near-infrared follow-up observations of the International Gravitational Wave Network (IGWN) event S250206dm with the Wide-Field Infrared Transient Explorer (WINTER). WINTER is a near-infrared time-domain survey designed for electromagnetic follow-up of gravitational-wave sources localized to $\leq$300 deg$^{2}$. The instrument's wide field of view (1.2 deg$^2$), dedicated 1-m robotic telescope, and near-infrared coverage (0.9-1.7 microns) are optimized for searching for kilonovae, which are expected to exhibit a relatively long-lived near-infrared component. S250206dm is the only neutron star merger in the fourth observing run (to date) localized to $\leq$300 deg$^{2}$ with a False Alarm Rate below one per year. It has a $55\%$ probability of being a neutron star-black hole (NSBH) merger and a $37\%$ probability of being a binary neutron star (BNS) merger, with a $50\%$ credible region spanning 38 deg$^2$, an estimated distance of 373 Mpc, and an overall false alarm rate of approximately one in 25 years. WINTER covered $43\%$ of the probability area at least once and $35\%$ at least three times. Through automated and human candidate vetting, all transient candidates found in WINTER coverage were rejected as kilonova candidates. Unsurprisingly, given the large estimated distance of 373 Mpc, the WINTER upper limits do not constrain kilonova models. This study highlights the promise of systematic infrared searches and the need for future wider and deeper infrared surveys.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

The Ep-Liso correlation: A new diagnostic tool for kilonova transients

The AT2017gfo kilonova transient remains a unique multi-messenger event thanks to its proximity (z=0.00987) and the possibility to investigate time-resolved spectra, providing evidence of r-process nucleosynthesis. The kilonova signal was extensively studied in the spectral and time domains, giving key insights into the chemical composition and physical properties of the ejecta. Here, we report the discovery of a novel correlation between two fundamental observables: the peak energy of the EF_E spectrum, Ep, and the isotropic-equivalent luminosity, Liso. In particular, we show that up to about 2.5 days after the merger, the AT2017gfo spectrum evolves according to: log10[Ep/eV] = -0.13 (+0.02/-0.02) + 0.62 (+0.02/-0.02) * log10[Liso/(1e41 erg/s)] (68% C.L.) while in subsequent epochs, Ep remains almost constant with Liso, flattening around 1 eV. Exploiting simulations from a state-of-the-art radiative transfer code, we demonstrate that our kilonova model inherently predicts this peculiar correlation, suggesting a new diagnostic tool for comparing observables against simulations. Future kilonova observations will provide additional insight into the physics behind the Ep-Liso correlation.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Challenging a binary neutron star merger interpretation of GW230529

GW230529_181500 represented the first gravitational-wave detection with one of the component objects' mass inferred to lie in the previously hypothesized mass gap between the heaviest neutron stars and the lightest observed black holes. Given the expected maximum mass values for neutron stars, this object was identified as a black hole, and, with the secondary component being a neutron star, the detection was classified as a neutron star-black hole merger. However, due to the low signal-to-noise ratio and the known waveform degeneracy between the spin and mass ratio in the employed gravitational-wave models, GW230529_181500 could also be interpreted as a merger of two heavy ($\gtrsim 2 \mathrm{M}_\odot$) neutron stars with high spins. We investigate the distinguishability of these scenarios by performing parameter estimation on simulated signals obtained from numerical-relativity waveforms for both neutron star-black hole and binary neutron star systems, with parameters consistent with GW230529_181500, and comparing them to the analysis of the real event data. We find that GW230529_181500 is more likely to have originated from a neutron star-black hole merger, though the possibility of a binary neutron star origin can not be ruled out. Moreover, we use the simulation data to estimate the signatures of potential electromagnetic counterparts emitted by the systems. We find them to be too dim to be located by current wide-field surveys if only the dynamical ejecta is considered, and detectable by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory during the first two days after merger if one accounts for additional disk wind ejecta.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2026

Detecting electromagnetic counterparts to LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA gravitational wave events with DECam: Neutron Star Mergers

With GW170817 being the only multimessenger gravitational wave (GW) event with an associated kilonova detected so far, there exists a pressing need for realistic estimation of the GW localization uncertainties and rates, as well as optimization of available telescope time to enable the detection of new kilonovae. We simulate GW events assuming a data-driven distribution of binary parameters for the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA (LVK) fourth and fifth observing runs (O4 and O5). We map the binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star-black hole (NSBH) properties to the kilonova optical light curves. We use the simulated population of kilonovae to generate follow-up observing plans, with the primary goal of optimizing detection with the Gravitational Wave Multi-Messenger Astronomy DECam Survey (GW-MMADS). We explore the dependence of kilonova detectability on the mass, distance, inclination, and spin of the binaries. Assuming that no BNS was detected during O4 until the end of 2024, we present updated GW BNS (NSBH) merger detection rates. We expect to detect BNS (NSBH) kilonovae with DECam at a per-year rate of: $0$-$2.0$ ($0$) in O4, and $2.0$-$19$ ($0$-$1.0$) in O5. We expect the majority of BNS detections and also those accompanied by a detectable kilonova to produce a hypermassive NS remnant, with a significant fraction of the remaining BNSs promptly collapsing to a BH. We release GW simulations and depths required to detect kilonovae based on our predictions to support the astronomical community in their multimessenger follow-up campaigns and analyses.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

ZTF25abjmnps (AT2025ulz) and S250818k: A Candidate Superkilonova from a Sub-threshold Sub-Solar Gravitational Wave Trigger

On August 18, 2025, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration reported gravitational waves from a sub-threshold binary neutron star merger. If astrophysical, this event would have a surprisingly low chirp mass, suggesting that at least one neutron star was below a solar mass. The Zwicky Transient Facility mapped the coarse localization and discovered a transient, ZTF25abjmnps (AT2025ulz), that was spatially and temporally coincident with the gravitational wave trigger. The first week of follow-up suggested properties reminiscent of a GW170817-like kilonova. Subsequent follow-up suggests properties most similar to a young, stripped-envelope, Type IIb supernova. Although we cannot statistically rule out chance coincidence, we undertake due diligence analysis to explore the possible association between ZTF25abjmnps and S250818k. Theoretical models have been proposed wherein sub-solar neutron star(s) may form (and subsequently merge) via accretion disk fragmentation or core fission inside a core-collapse supernova i.e. a ``superkilonova". Here, we qualitatively discuss our multi-wavelength dataset in the context of the superkilonova picture. Future higher significance gravitational wave detections of sub-solar neutron star mergers with extensive electromagnetic follow-up would conclusively resolve this tantalizing multi-messenger association.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Efficient Bayesian analysis of kilonovae and gamma ray burst afterglows with fiesta

Gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows and kilonovae (KNe) are electromagnetic transients that can accompany binary neutron star (BNS) mergers. Therefore, studying their emission processes is of general interest for constraining cosmological parameters or the behavior of ultra-dense matter. One common method to analyze electromagnetic data from BNS mergers is to sample a Bayesian posterior over the parameters of a physical model for the transient. However, sampling the posterior is computationally costly and because of the many likelihood evaluations required in this process, detailed models are too expensive to be used directly in Bayesian inference. In this paper, we address the problem by introducing fiesta, a python package to train machine learning (ML) surrogates for GRB afterglow and kilonova models that have the capacity to accelerate likelihood evaluations. Specifically, we introduce extensive ML surrogates for the state-of-the-art GRB afterglow models afterglowpy and pyblastafterglow, along with a new surrogate for KN emission based on the possis code. Our surrogates enable evaluation of the light-curve posterior within minutes. We also provide built-in posterior sampling capabilities in fiesta that rely on the flowMC package, which efficiently scale to higher dimensions when adding up to tens of nuisance sampling parameters. Because of its use of the JAX framework, fiesta also allows for GPU acceleration during both surrogate training and posterior sampling. We applied our framework to reanalyze AT2017gfo/GRB170817A and GRB211211A with our surrogates, thus employing the new pyblastafterglow model for the first time in Bayesian inference.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

An axisymmetric shock breakout indicated by prompt polarized emission from the type II supernova 2024ggi

The death of massive stars is triggered by an infall-induced bounce shock that disrupts the star. How such a shock is launched and propagates through the star is a decade-long puzzle. Some models assume that the shock can be reenergized by absorbing neutrinos, leading to highly aspherical explosions. Other models involve jet-powered shocks that lead to bipolar explosions reflected in the geometry of the shock-breakout emission. We report measurement of the geometry of the shock breakout through unprecedentedly early spectropolarimetry of the nearby type II supernova 2024ggi starting ~1.2 days after the explosion. The measurement indicates a well-defined symmetry axis of the shock breakout, which is also shared by the hydrogen-rich envelope that emerged after the circumstellar matter was engulfed by the ejecta, revealing a persisting and prominent symmetry axis throughout the explosion. These findings suggest that the physical mechanism driving the explosion of massive stars manifests a well-defined axial symmetry and acts on large scales.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

AT2025ulz and S250818k: Investigating early time observations of a subsolar mass gravitational-wave binary neutron star merger candidate

Over the past LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA (LVK) observing runs, it has become increasingly clear that identifying the next electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational-wave (GW) neutron star mergers will likely be more challenging compared to the case of GW170817. The rarity of these GW events, and their electromagnetic counterparts, motivates rapid searches of any candidate binary neutron star (BNS) merger detected by the LVK. We present our extensive photometric and spectroscopic campaign of the candidate counterpart AT2025ulz to the low-significance GW event S250818k, which had a ${\sim} 29\%$ probability of being a BNS merger. We demonstrate that during the first five days, the luminosity and color evolution of AT2025ulz are consistent with both kilonova and shock cooling models, although a Bayesian model comparison shows preference for the shock cooling model, underscoring the ambiguity inherent to early data obtained over only a few days. Continued monitoring beyond this window reveals a rise and color evolution incompatible with kilonova models and instead consistent with a supernova. This event emphasizes the difficulty in identifying the electromagnetic counterparts to BNS mergers and the significant allotment of observing time necessary to robustly differentiate kilonovae from impostors.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

General-relativistic radiation magnetohydrodynamics simulations of binary neutron star mergers: The influence of spin on the multi-messenger picture

The rich phenomenology of binary neutron star mergers offers a unique opportunity to test general relativity, investigate matter at supranuclear densities, and learn more about the origin of heavy elements. As multi-messenger sources, they emit both gravitational waves and electromagnetic radiation across several frequency bands. The interpretation of these signals relies heavily on accurate numerical-relativity simulations that incorporate the relevant microphysical processes. Using the latest updates of the BAM code, we perform general-relativistic radiation magnetohydrodynamic simulations of binary neutron star mergers with two different spin configurations. We adopt a state-of-the-art equation of state based on relativistic mean-field theory developed for dense matter in neutron star mergers. To capture both dynamical ejecta and secular outflows from magnetic and neutrino-driven winds, we evolve the systems up to $\sim 100\ \rm ms$ after the merger at considerably high resolution with a grid spacing of $Δx \approx 93\ \rm m$ across the neutron stars. Our results show that the non-spinning configuration undergoes a more violent merger, producing more ejecta with lower electron fraction and higher velocities, while the spinning configuration forms a larger disk due to its higher angular momentum. Although the initial magnetic field amplification within $\lesssim 10\ \rm ms$ after merger is similar in both systems, the non-spinning system reaches stronger magnetic fields and higher energies at later times. For a detailed view of the multi-messenger observables, we extract the gravitational-wave signal and compute nucleosynthesis yields, the expected kilonova and afterglow light curves from our ejecta profiles.

astro-ph.HE↗