arXiv subjects

Mausumi Dikpati

Publications and source records attributed to Mausumi Dikpati.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Analysis of Short-term Solar Activity Variability and Estimating the Timings of the Next Enhanced Bursts

We present a hybrid forecasting strategy that combines numerical modeling, statistical forecasting, and machine learning methods to predict enhanced bursts of solar activity. These bursts, referred to here as space weather seasons, occur on intermediate timescales of approximately 6 to 18 months. We analyze monthly smoothed sunspot number data from 1878 to 2025 and use Gaussian fitting to identify burst events and characterize their amplitudes and durations. The sunspot number data are divided into training, testing, and forecasting intervals to evaluate both hindcast performance and future predictions. Each solar hemisphere is modeled separately using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average approach. This baseline forecast is refined using an asymmetric Gaussian override to represent the rapid rise and gradual decay of burst activity. Burst amplitudes and durations are then estimated using a random forest regression model. The hybrid method successfully reproduces burst timing between November 2024 and May 2025, with the Northern Hemisphere reaching a peak sunspot number of about 70 around March 2025. The next Northern Hemisphere burst is forecast to occur around December 2025, with a slightly lower peak sunspot number of about 60. In contrast, the Southern Hemisphere shows more complex behavior, with multiple burst amplitudes beginning around October 2024 and continuing until October 2025. The dominant Southern Hemisphere burst reaches an amplitude of about 130 in sunspot number, and the next burst is forecast to occur around December 2025. When the hemispheric forecasts are combined, the total sunspot number is found to be mainly controlled by the stronger activity cycle in the Southern Hemisphere.

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arXiv2026

Moderate Nesting and Cross-Equatorial Asymmetry of Active Regions in Solar Cycle 24

Solar Cycle 24 data are used to determine how often the Sun emerges sunspots in `activity nests', i.e., regions where sunspots and active regions (ARs) repeatedly emerge. We use the Solar Photospheric Ephemeral Active Region (SPEAR) catalog created from Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) data as well as the HMI Carrington Rotation maps of radial magnetic field, $B_r$. The Sun shows moderate nesting behavior with 41\% (48\%) of AR magnetic flux found in Northern (Southern) hemispheric nests that are short-lived (average lifetimes $\sim$3.3 - 4.0 months). Different rotation rates are used to search for nests that may not be evident `by eye'. The maximum number of nests are found with slightly prograde rotational velocities, with significant nest flux also found at synodic 451--452 nHz prograde and 409--411 nHz retrograde frequencies. Nest patterns show strong hemispheric asymmetry, indicating that the physical origin of nests identified herein must also be asymmetric or antisymmetric across the equator.

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arXiv2026

Simulations of the onset and dynamical evolution of inertial waves in solar/stellar interior

Inertial modes have been recently detected in the Sun via helioseismology, yet their origin, evolution, and role in the dynamics of the solar plasma and magnetic field remain poorly understood. In this study, we employ global numerical simulations to investigate the excitation mechanisms and dynamical consequences of inertial modes in the Sun and stellar interiors. We validate first our numerical setup by analyzing the evolution of sectoral and tesseral perturbations imposed on a rigidly rotating sphere. The results confirm that a perturbation of a given mode can excite neighboring modes with both smaller and larger wavenumbers along the dispersion relation of Rossby waves. Subsequently, we use a physically motivated forcing to impose differential rotation with varying shear amplitudes, and examine the spontaneous onset and nonlinear evolution of inertial modes. The simulations reveal that the growth of velocity perturbations is primarily driven by baroclinic instability. It gives rise to high-latitude inertial modes in the form of retrograde polar vortices whose properties depend on the imposed shear. Equatorial Rossby modes are also excited, albeit with lower intensity than their high-latitude counterpart. Perturbations with arbitrary azimuthal wavenumbers lead to the excitation of Rossby modes for all available wave numbers, sustained by both direct and inverse energy cascades. In simulations with stronger shear, the high latitude modes produce Reynolds stresses able to modify the imposed differential rotation and accelerate the rotation of the poles.

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arXiv2025

A Physics Informed Neural Network For Deriving MHD State Vectors From Global Active Regions Observations

Solar active regions (ARs) do not appear randomly but cluster along longitudinally warped toroidal bands ('toroids') that encode information about magnetic structures in the tachocline, where global-scale organization likely originates. Global MagnetoHydroDynamic Shallow-Water Tachocline (MHD-SWT) models have shown potential to simulate such toroids, matching observations qualitatively. For week-scale early prediction of flare-producing AR emergence, forward-integration of these toroids is necessary. This requires model initialization with a dynamically self-consistent MHD state-vector that includes magnetic, flow fields, and shell-thickness variations. However, synoptic magnetograms provide only geometric shape of toroids, not the state-vector needed to initialize MHD-SWT models. To address this challenging task, we develop PINNBARDS, a novel Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN)-Based AR Distribution Simulator, that uses observational toroids and MHD-SWT equations to derive initial state-vector. Using Feb-14-2024 SDO/HMI synoptic map, we show that PINN converges to physically consistent, predominantly antisymmetric toroids, matching observed ones. Although surface data provides north and south toroids' central latitudes, and their latitudinal widths, they cannot determine tachocline field strengths, connected to AR emergence. We explore here solutions across a broad parameter range, finding hydrodynamically-dominated structures for weak fields (~2 kG) and overly rigid behavior for strong fields (~100 kG). We obtain best agreement with observations for 20-30 kG toroidal fields, and ~10 degree bandwidth, consistent with low-order longitudinal mode excitation. To our knowledge, PINNBARDS serves as the first method for reconstructing state-vectors for hidden tachocline magnetic structures from surface patterns; potentially leading to weeks ahead prediction of flare-producing AR-emergence.

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arXiv2025

Solar Interior

This chapter introduces the reader to the solar interior, in particular the convection zone. The first section explores the solar cycle and the dynamo models that have been studied to explain this cycle. The second section explores helioseismology observations and analysis of the solar interior, and reviews the fundamental knowledge that has been gained from these studies. The third and final section reviews observations and theory of magnetic fields emerging from the convection zone into the solar corona.

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arXiv2024

Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation Into Surface Flux Transport Model To Infer Surface Flows: An Observing System Simulation Experiment

Knowledge of the global magnetic field distribution and its evolution on the Sun's surface is crucial for modeling the coronal magnetic field, understanding solar wind dynamics, computing the heliospheric open flux distribution and predicting solar cycle strength. As the far side of the Sun cannot be observed directly and high-latitude observations always suffer from projection effects, we often rely on surface flux transport simulations (SFT) to model long-term global magnetic field distribution. Meridional circulation, the large-scale north-south component of the surface flow profile, is one of the key components of the SFT simulation that requires further constraints near high latitudes. Prediction of the photospheric magnetic field distribution requires knowledge of the flow profile in the future, which demands reconstruction of that same flow at the current time so that it can be estimated at a later time. By performing Observing System Simulation Experiments, we demonstrate how the Ensemble Kalman Filter technique, when used with a SFT model, can be utilized to make ``posterior'' estimates of flow profiles into the future that can be used to drive the model forward to forecast photospheric magnetic field distribution.

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arXiv2023

Dynamics of the tachocline

The solar tachocline is an internal region of the Sun possessing strong radial and latitudinal shears straddling the base of the convective envelope. Based on helioseismic inversions, the tachocline is known to be thin (less than 5\% of the solar radius). Since the first theory of the solar tachocline in 1992, this thinness has not ceased to puzzle solar physicists. In this review, we lay out the grounds of our understanding of this fascinating region of the solar interior. We detail the various physical mechanisms at stake in the solar tachocline, and put a particular focus on the mechanisms that have been proposed to explain its thinness. We also examine the full range of MHD processes including waves and instabilies that are likely to occur in the tachocline, as well as their possible connection with active region patterns observed at the surface. We reflect on the most recent findings for each of them, and highlight the physical understanding that is still missing and that would allow the research community to understand, in a generic sense, how the solar tachocline and stellar tachocline are formed, are sustained, and evolve on secular timescales.

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arXiv2023

Deciphering Pre-solar-storm Features Of September-2017 Storm From Global And Local Dynamics

We investigate whether global toroid patterns and the local magnetic field topology of solar active region AR12673 together can hindcast occurrence of the biggest X-flare of solar cycle (SC)-24. Magnetic toroid patterns (narrow latitude-belts warped in longitude, in which active regions are tightly bound) derived from surface distributions of active regions, prior/during AR12673 emergence, reveal that the portions of the South-toroid containing AR12673 was not tipped-away from its north-toroid counterpart at that longitude, unlike the 2003 Halloween storms scenario. During the minimum-phase there were too few emergences to determine multi-mode longitudinal toroid patterns. A new emergence within AR12673 produced a complex/non-potential structure, which led to rapid build-up of helicity/winding that triggered the biggest X-flare of SC-24, suggesting that this minimum-phase storm can be anticipated several hours before its occurrence. However, global patterns and local dynamics for a peak-phase storm, such as that from AR11263, behaved like 2003 Halloween storms, producing the third biggest X-flare of SC-24. AR11263 was present at the longitude where the North/South toroids tipped-away from each other. While global toroid patterns indicate that pre-storm features can be forecast with a lead-time of a few months, its application on observational data can be complicated by complex interactions with turbulent flows. Complex/non-potential field structure development hours before the storm are necessary for short term prediction. We infer that minimum-phase storms cannot be forecast accurately more than a few hours ahead, while flare-prone active regions in peak-phase may be anticipated much earlier, possibly months ahead from global toroid patterns.

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arXiv2023

The Puzzling Structure of Solar Convection: Window into the Dynamo

The operation of the solar dynamo, with all of its remarkable spatio-temporal ordering, remains an outstanding problem of modern solar physics. A number of mechanisms that might plausibly contribute to its operation have been proposed, but the relative role played by each remains unclear. This uncertainty stems from continuing questions concerning the speed and structure of deep-seated convective flows. Those flows are in-turn thought to sustain both the Sun's turbulent EMF and the large-scale flows of differential rotation and meridional circulation suspected of influencing the dynamo's organization and timing. Continued progress in this area is complicated by (i) inconsistencies between helioseismic measurements of convective and meridional flow made with different techniques and instruments, and (ii) a lack of high-latitude data for convection, differential rotation, and meridional flow. We suggest that the path forward to resolving these difficulties is twofold. First, the acquisition of long-term helioseismic and emissivity measurements obtained from a polar vantage point is vital to complete our picture of the Sun's outer convection zone. Second, sustained and expanded investment in theory-oriented and combined theory/observational research initiatives will be crucial to fully exploit these new observations and to resolve inconsistencies between existing measurements.

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arXiv2023

Solaris: A Focused Solar Polar Discovery-class Mission to achieve the Highest Priority Heliophysics Science Now

Solaris is a transformative Solar Polar Discovery-class mission concept to address crucial outstanding questions that can only be answered from a polar vantage. Solaris will image the Sun's poles from ~75 degree latitude, providing new insight into the workings of the solar dynamo and the solar cycle, which are at the foundation of our understanding of space weather and space climate. Solaris will also provide enabling observations for improved space weather research, modeling and prediction, revealing a unique, new view of the corona, coronal dynamics and CME eruptions from above.

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arXiv2021

What Seismic Minimum Reveals About Solar Magnetism Below the Surface?

The Sun's magnetic field varies in multiple time scales. Observations show that the minimum between cycles 24 and 25 was the second consecutive minimum which was deeper and wider than several earlier minima. Since the active regions observed at the Sun's surface are manifestations of the magnetic field generated in the interior, it is crucial to investigate/understand the dynamics below the surface. In this context, we report, by probing the solar interior with helioseismic techniques applied to long-term oscillations data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG), that the seismic minima in deeper layers have been occurring about a year earlier than that at the surface for the last two consecutive solar cycles. Our findings also demonstrate a decrease in strong magnetic fields at the base of the convection zone, the primary driver of the surface magnetic activity. We conclude that the magnetic fields located in the core and near-surface shear layers, in addition to the tachocline fields, play an important role in modifying the oscillation frequencies. This provides evidence that further strengthens the existence of a relic magnetic field in the Sun's core since its formation.

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arXiv2021

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: 140 Years Of The `Extended Solar Cycle' -- Mapping the Hale Cycle

We investigate the occurrence of the "extended solar cycle" (ESC) as it occurs in a host observational data spanning 140 years. Investigating coronal, chromospheric, photospheric and interior diagnostics we develop a consistent picture of solar activity migration linked to the 22-year Hale (magnetic) cycle using superposed epoch analysis (SEA) using previously identified Hale cycle termination events as the key time for the SEA. Our analysis shows that the ESC and Hale cycle, as highlighted by the terminator-keyed SEA, is strongly recurrent throughout the entire observational record studied, some 140 years. Applying the same SEA method to the sunspot record confirms that Maunder's butterfly pattern is a subset of the underlying Hale cycle, strongly suggesting that the production of sunspots is not the fundamental feature of the Hale cycle, but the ESC is. The ESC (and Hale cycle) pattern highlights the importance of 55\degree\ latitude in the evolution, and possible production, of solar magnetism.

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arXiv2021

Measuring the magnetic origins of solar flares, CMEs and Space Weather

We take a broad look at the problem of identifying the magnetic solar causes of space weather. With the lackluster performance of extrapolations based upon magnetic field measurements in the photosphere, we identify a region in the near UV part of the spectrum as optimal for studying the development of magnetic free energy over active regions. Using data from SORCE, Hubble Space Telescope, and SKYLAB, along with 1D computations of the near-UV (NUV) spectrum and numerical experiments based on the MURaM radiation-MHD and HanleRT radiative transfer codes, we address multiple challenges. These challenges are best met through a combination of near UV lines of bright \ion{Mg}{2}, and lines of \ion{Fe}{2} and \ion{Fe}{1} (mostly within the $4s-4p$ transition array) which form in the chromosphere up to $2\times10^4$ K. Both Hanle and Zeeman effects can in principle be used to derive vector magnetic fields. However, for any given spectral line the $τ=1$ surfaces are generally geometrically corrugated owing to fine structure such as fibrils and spicules. By using multiple spectral lines spanning different optical depths, magnetic fields across nearly-horizontal surfaces can be inferred in regions of low plasma $β$, from which free energies, magnetic topology and other quantities can be derived. Based upon the recently-reported successful suborbital space measurements of magnetic fields with the CLASP2 instrument, we argue that a modest space-borne telescope will be able to make significant advances in the attempts to predict solar eruptions. Difficulties associated with blended lines are shown to be minor in an Appendix.

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arXiv2019

What the sudden death of solar cycles can tell us about the nature of the solar interior

We observe the abrupt end of solar activity cycles at the Sun's equator by combining almost 140 years of observations from ground and space. These "terminator" events appear to be very closely related to the onset of magnetic activity belonging to the next sunspot cycle at mid-latitudes and the polar-reversal process at high-latitudes. Using multi-scale tracers of solar activity we examine the timing of these events in relation to the excitation of new activity and find that the time taken for the solar plasma to communicate this transition is of the order of one solar rotation, but could be shorter. Utilizing uniquely comprehensive solar observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) we see that this transitional event is strongly longitudinal in nature. Combined, these characteristics imply that magnetic information is communicated through the solar interior rapidly. A range of possibilities exist to explain such behavior: the presence of magnetic reconnection in the deep interior, internal gravity waves on the solar tachocline, or that the magnetic fields present in the Sun's convection zone could be very large, with a poloidal field strengths reaching 50k - considerably larger than conventional explorations of solar and stellar dynamos estimate. Regardless of mechanism responsible, the rapid timescales demonstrated by the Sun's global magnetic field reconfiguration present strong constraints on first-principles numerical simulations of the solar interior and, by extension, other stars.

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arXiv2019

Signature of Extended Solar Cycles as Detected from Ca II K Synoptic Maps of Kodaikanal and Mount Wilson Observatory

In the recent years there has been a resurgence of the study of Extended Solar Cycles (ESCs) through observational proxies mainly in Extreme Ultraviolet. But most of them are limited only to space-based era covering only about two solar cycles. Long-term historical data-sets are worth in examining the consistency of ESCs. Kodaikanal Solar Observatory (KSO) and Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) are the two major sources of long-term Ca II K digitised spectroheliograms covering the temporal spans 1907-2007 and 1915-1985 respectively. In this study, we detected supergranule boundaries, commonly known as networks, using the Carrington maps from both KSO and MWO datasets. Subsequently we excluded the plage areas to consider only quiet sun (QS) and detected small scale bright features through intensity thresholding over the QS network. Latitudinal density of those features, which we named as `Network Bright Elements' (NBEs), could clearly depict the existence of overlapping cycles with equator-ward branches starting at latitude $\approx 55^{\circ}$ and taking about $15\pm1$ years to reach the equator. We performed superposed epoch analysis to depict the similarity of those extended cycles. Knowledge of such equator-ward band interaction, for several cycles, may provide critical constraints on solar dynamo models.

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arXiv2017

North-south asymmetry in Rieger-type periodicity during solar cycles 19-23

Rieger-type periodicity has been detected in different activity indices over many solar cycles. It was recently shown that the periodicity correlates with solar activity having a shorter period during stronger cycles. Solar activity level is generally asymmetric between northern and southern hemispheres, which could suggest the presence of a similar behavior in the Rieger-type periodicity. We analyse the sunspot area/number and the total magnetic flux data for northern and southern hemispheres during solar cycles 19-23 which had remarkable north-south asymmetry. Using wavelet analysis of sunspot area and number during the north-dominated cycles (19-20) we obtained the periodicity of 160-165 days in the stronger northern hemisphere and 180-190 days in the weaker southern hemisphere. On the other hand, south-dominated cycles (21-23) display the periodicity of 155-160 days in the stronger southern hemisphere and 175-188 days in the weaker northern hemisphere. Therefore, the Rieger-type periodicity has the north-south asymmetry in sunspot area/number data during solar cycles with strong hemispheric asymmetry. We suggest that the periodicity is caused by magnetic Rossby waves in the internal dynamo layer. Using the dispersion relation of magnetic Rossby waves and observed Rieger periodicity we estimated the magnetic field strength in the layer as 45-49 kG in more active hemispheres (north during the cycles 19-20 and south during the cycles 21-23) and 33-40 kG in weaker hemispheres. The estimated difference in the hemispheric field strength is around 10 kG, which provides a challenge for dynamo models. Total magnetic flux data during the cycle 20-23 reveals no clear north-south asymmetry which needs to be explained in the future.

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arXiv2015

A Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model with multi-cellular meridional circulation in advection- and diffusion-dominated regimes

Babcock-Leighton type solar dynamo models with single-celled meridional circulation are successful in reproducing many solar cycle features. Recent observations and theoretical models of meridional circulation do not indicate a single-celled flow pattern. We examine the role of complex multi-cellular circulation patterns in a Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo in advection- and diffusion-dominated regimes. We show from simulations that presence of a weak, second, high-latitude reverse cell speeds up the cycle and slightly enhances the poleward branch in butterfly diagram, whereas the presence of a second cell in depth reverses the tilt of butterfly wing to an anti-solar type. A butterfly diagram constructed from middle of convection zone yields a solar-like pattern, but this may be difficult to realize in the Sun because of magnetic buoyancy effects. Each of the above cases behaves similarly in higher and lower magnetic diffusivity regimes. However, our dynamo with a meridional circulation containing four cells in latitude behaves distinctly differently in the two regimes, producing solar-like butterfly diagrams with fast cycles in the higher diffusivity regime, and complex branches in butterfly diagrams in the lower diffusivity regime. We also find that dynamo solutions for a four-celled pattern, two in radius and two in latitude, prefer to quickly relax to quadrupolar parity if the bottom flow-speed is strong enough, of similar order of magnitude as the surface flow-speed.

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arXiv2014

Observations and modelling of North-South asymmetries using a Flux Transport Dynamo

The peculiar behaviour of the solar cycle 23 and its prolonged minima has been one of the most studied problems over the last few years. In the present paper, we study the asymmetries in active region magnetic flux in the northern and southern hemispheres during complete solar cycle 23 and rising phase of solar cycle 24. During the declining phase of solar cycle 23, we find that the magnetic flux in the southern hemisphere is about 10 times stronger than that in the northern hemisphere during the declining phase of the solar cycle 23 and during the rising phase of cycle 24, however, this trend reversed. The magnetic flux becomes about a factor of 4 stronger in the northern hemisphere to that of southern hemisphere. Additionally, we find that there was significant delay (about 5 months) in change of the polarity in the southern hemisphere in comparison with the northern hemisphere. These results provide us with hints of how the toroidal fluxes have contributed to the solar dynamo during the prolonged minima in the solar cycle 23 and in the rising phase of the solar cycle 24. Using a solar flux-transport dynamo model, we demonstrate that persistently stronger sunspot cycles in one hemisphere could be caused by the effect of greater inflows into active region belts in that hemisphere. Observations indicate that greater inflows are associated with stronger activity. Some other change or difference in meridional circulation between hemispheres could cause the weaker hemisphere to become the stronger one.

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