arXiv subjects

Max Simchowitz

Publications and source records attributed to Max Simchowitz.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Balancing Competing Objectives with Noisy Data: Score-Based Classifiers for Welfare-Aware Machine Learning

While real-world decisions involve many competing objectives, algorithmic decisions are often evaluated with a single objective function. In this paper, we study algorithmic policies which explicitly trade off between a private objective (such as profit) and a public objective (such as social welfare). We analyze a natural class of policies which trace an empirical Pareto frontier based on learned scores, and focus on how such decisions can be made in noisy or data-limited regimes. Our theoretical results characterize the optimal strategies in this class, bound the Pareto errors due to inaccuracies in the scores, and show an equivalence between optimal strategies and a rich class of fairness-constrained profit-maximizing policies. We then present empirical results in two different contexts -- online content recommendation and sustainable abalone fisheries -- to underscore the applicability of our approach to a wide range of practical decisions. Taken together, these results shed light on inherent trade-offs in using machine learning for decisions that impact social welfare.

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arXiv2020

Tight Query Complexity Lower Bounds for PCA via Finite Sample Deformed Wigner Law

We prove a \emph{query complexity} lower bound for approximating the top $r$ dimensional eigenspace of a matrix. We consider an oracle model where, given a symmetric matrix $\mathbf{M} \in \mathbb{R}^{d \times d}$, an algorithm $\mathsf{Alg}$ is allowed to make $\mathsf{T}$ exact queries of the form $\mathsf{w}^{(i)} = \mathbf{M} \mathsf{v}^{(i)}$ for $i$ in $\{1,...,\mathsf{T}\}$, where $\mathsf{v}^{(i)}$ is drawn from a distribution which depends arbitrarily on the past queries and measurements $\{\mathsf{v}^{(j)},\mathsf{w}^{(i)}\}_{1 \le j \le i-1}$. We show that for every $\mathtt{gap} \in (0,1/2]$, there exists a distribution over matrices $\mathbf{M}$ for which 1) $\mathrm{gap}_r(\mathbf{M}) = Ω(\mathtt{gap})$ (where $\mathrm{gap}_r(\mathbf{M})$ is the normalized gap between the $r$ and $r+1$-st largest-magnitude eigenvector of $\mathbf{M}$), and 2) any algorithm $\mathsf{Alg}$ which takes fewer than $\mathrm{const} \times \frac{r \log d}{\sqrt{\mathtt{gap}}}$ queries fails (with overwhelming probability) to identity a matrix $\widehat{\mathsf{V}} \in \mathbb{R}^{d \times r}$ with orthonormal columns for which $\langle \widehat{\mathsf{V}}, \mathbf{M} \widehat{\mathsf{V}}\rangle \ge (1 - \mathrm{const} \times \mathtt{gap})\sum_{i=1}^r λ_i(\mathbf{M})$. Our bound requires only that $d$ is a small polynomial in $1/\mathtt{gap}$ and $r$, and matches the upper bounds of Musco and Musco '15. Moreover, it establishes a strict separation between convex optimization and \emph{randomized}, "strict-saddle" non-convex optimization of which PCA is a canonical example: in the former, first-order methods can have dimension-free iteration complexity, whereas in PCA, the iteration complexity of gradient-based methods must necessarily grow with the dimension.

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arXiv2020

Improper Learning for Non-Stochastic Control

We consider the problem of controlling a possibly unknown linear dynamical system with adversarial perturbations, adversarially chosen convex loss functions, and partially observed states, known as non-stochastic control. We introduce a controller parametrization based on the denoised observations, and prove that applying online gradient descent to this parametrization yields a new controller which attains sublinear regret vs. a large class of closed-loop policies. In the fully-adversarial setting, our controller attains an optimal regret bound of $\sqrt{T}$-when the system is known, and, when combined with an initial stage of least-squares estimation, $T^{2/3}$ when the system is unknown; both yield the first sublinear regret for the partially observed setting. Our bounds are the first in the non-stochastic control setting that compete with \emph{all} stabilizing linear dynamical controllers, not just state feedback. Moreover, in the presence of semi-adversarial noise containing both stochastic and adversarial components, our controller attains the optimal regret bounds of $\mathrm{poly}(\log T)$ when the system is known, and $\sqrt{T}$ when unknown. To our knowledge, this gives the first end-to-end $\sqrt{T}$ regret for online Linear Quadratic Gaussian controller, and applies in a more general setting with adversarial losses and semi-adversarial noise.

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arXiv2020

A Successive-Elimination Approach to Adaptive Robotic Sensing

We study an adaptive source seeking problem, in which a mobile robot must identify the strongest emitter(s) of a signal in an environment with background emissions. Background signals may be highly heterogeneous and can mislead algorithms that are based on receding horizon control. We propose AdaSearch, a general algorithm for adaptive source seeking in the face of heterogeneous background noise. AdaSearch combines global trajectory planning with principled confidence intervals in order to concentrate measurements in promising regions while guaranteeing sufficient coverage of the entire area. Theoretical analysis shows that AdaSearch confers gains over a uniform sampling strategy when the distribution of background signals is highly variable. Simulation experiments demonstrate that when applied to the problem of radioactive source seeking, AdaSearch outperforms both uniform sampling and a receding time horizon information-maximization approach based on the current literature. We also demonstrate AdaSearch in hardware, providing further evidence of its potential for real-time implementation.

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arXiv2020

Logarithmic Regret for Adversarial Online Control

We introduce a new algorithm for online linear-quadratic control in a known system subject to adversarial disturbances. Existing regret bounds for this setting scale as $\sqrt{T}$ unless strong stochastic assumptions are imposed on the disturbance process. We give the first algorithm with logarithmic regret for arbitrary adversarial disturbance sequences, provided the state and control costs are given by known quadratic functions. Our algorithm and analysis use a characterization for the optimal offline control law to reduce the online control problem to (delayed) online learning with approximate advantage functions. Compared to previous techniques, our approach does not need to control movement costs for the iterates, leading to logarithmic regret.

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arXiv2020

Reward-Free Exploration for Reinforcement Learning

Exploration is widely regarded as one of the most challenging aspects of reinforcement learning (RL), with many naive approaches succumbing to exponential sample complexity. To isolate the challenges of exploration, we propose a new "reward-free RL" framework. In the exploration phase, the agent first collects trajectories from an MDP $\mathcal{M}$ without a pre-specified reward function. After exploration, it is tasked with computing near-optimal policies under for $\mathcal{M}$ for a collection of given reward functions. This framework is particularly suitable when there are many reward functions of interest, or when the reward function is shaped by an external agent to elicit desired behavior. We give an efficient algorithm that conducts $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(S^2A\mathrm{poly}(H)/ε^2)$ episodes of exploration and returns $ε$-suboptimal policies for an arbitrary number of reward functions. We achieve this by finding exploratory policies that visit each "significant" state with probability proportional to its maximum visitation probability under any possible policy. Moreover, our planning procedure can be instantiated by any black-box approximate planner, such as value iteration or natural policy gradient. We also give a nearly-matching $Ω(S^2AH^2/ε^2)$ lower bound, demonstrating the near-optimality of our algorithm in this setting.

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arXiv2019

Non-Asymptotic Gap-Dependent Regret Bounds for Tabular MDPs

This paper establishes that optimistic algorithms attain gap-dependent and non-asymptotic logarithmic regret for episodic MDPs. In contrast to prior work, our bounds do not suffer a dependence on diameter-like quantities or ergodicity, and smoothly interpolate between the gap dependent logarithmic-regret, and the $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{HSAT})$-minimax rate. The key technique in our analysis is a novel "clipped" regret decomposition which applies to a broad family of recent optimistic algorithms for episodic MDPs.

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arXiv2019

On the Randomized Complexity of Minimizing a Convex Quadratic Function

Minimizing a convex, quadratic objective of the form $f_{\mathbf{A},\mathbf{b}}(x) := \frac{1}{2}x^\top \mathbf{A} x - \langle \mathbf{b}, x \rangle$ for $\mathbf{A} \succ 0 $ is a fundamental problem in machine learning and optimization. In this work, we prove gradient-query complexity lower bounds for minimizing convex quadratic functions which apply to both deterministic and \emph{randomized} algorithms. Specifically, for $κ> 1$, we exhibit a distribution over $(\mathbf{A},\mathbf{b})$ with condition number $\mathrm{cond}(\mathbf{A}) \le κ$, such that any \emph{randomized} algorithm requires $Ω(\sqrtκ)$ gradient queries to find a solution $\hat x$ for which $\|\hat x - \mathbf x_\star\| \le ε_0\|\mathbf{x}_{\star}\|$, where $\mathbf x_{\star} = \mathbf{A}^{-1}\mathbf{b}$ is the optimal solution, and $ε_0$ a small constant. Setting $κ=1/ε$, this lower bound implies the minimax rate of $T = Ω(λ_1(\mathbf{A})\|\mathbf x_\star\|^2/\sqrtε)$ queries required to minimize an arbitrary convex quadratic function up to error $f(\hat{x}) - f(\mathbf x_\star) \le ε$. Our lower bound holds for a distribution derived from classical ensembles in random matrix theory, and relies on a careful reduction from adaptively estimating a planted vector $\mathbf u$ in a deformed Wigner model. A key step in deriving sharp lower bounds is demonstrating that the optimization error $\mathbf x_\star - \hat x$ cannot align too closely with $\mathbf{u}$. To this end, we prove an upper bound on the cosine between $\mathbf x_\star - \hat x$ and $\mathbf u$ in terms of the MMSE of estimating the plant $\mathbf u$ in a deformed Wigner model. We then bound the MMSE by carefully modifying a result due to Lelarge and Miolane 2016, which rigorously establishes a general replica-symmetric formula for planted matrix models.

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arXiv2019

Learning Linear Dynamical Systems with Semi-Parametric Least Squares

We analyze a simple prefiltered variation of the least squares estimator for the problem of estimation with biased, semi-parametric noise, an error model studied more broadly in causal statistics and active learning. We prove an oracle inequality which demonstrates that this procedure provably mitigates the variance introduced by long-term dependencies. We then demonstrate that prefiltered least squares yields, to our knowledge, the first algorithm that provably estimates the parameters of partially-observed linear systems that attains rates which do not not incur a worst-case dependence on the rate at which these dependencies decay. The algorithm is provably consistent even for systems which satisfy the weaker marginal stability condition obeyed by many classical models based on Newtonian mechanics. In this context, our semi-parametric framework yields guarantees for both stochastic and worst-case noise.

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arXiv2019

The implicit fairness criterion of unconstrained learning

We clarify what fairness guarantees we can and cannot expect to follow from unconstrained machine learning. Specifically, we characterize when unconstrained learning on its own implies group calibration, that is, the outcome variable is conditionally independent of group membership given the score. We show that under reasonable conditions, the deviation from satisfying group calibration is upper bounded by the excess risk of the learned score relative to the Bayes optimal score function. A lower bound confirms the optimality of our upper bound. Moreover, we prove that as the excess risk of the learned score decreases, it strongly violates separation and independence, two other standard fairness criteria. Our results show that group calibration is the fairness criterion that unconstrained learning implicitly favors. On the one hand, this means that calibration is often satisfied on its own without the need for active intervention, albeit at the cost of violating other criteria that are at odds with calibration. On the other hand, it suggests that we should be satisfied with calibration as a fairness criterion only if we are at ease with the use of unconstrained machine learning in a given application.

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arXiv2018

Adaptive Sampling for Convex Regression

In this paper, we introduce the first principled adaptive-sampling procedure for learning a convex function in the $L_\infty$ norm, a problem that arises often in the behavioral and social sciences. We present a function-specific measure of complexity and use it to prove that, for each convex function $f_{\star}$, our algorithm nearly attains the information-theoretically optimal, function-specific error rate. We also corroborate our theoretical contributions with numerical experiments, finding that our method substantially outperforms passive, uniform sampling for favorable synthetic and data-derived functions in low-noise settings with large sampling budgets. Our results also suggest an idealized "oracle strategy", which we use to gauge the potential advance of any adaptive-sampling strategy over passive sampling, for any given convex function.

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arXiv2018

Learning Without Mixing: Towards A Sharp Analysis of Linear System Identification

We prove that the ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimator attains nearly minimax optimal performance for the identification of linear dynamical systems from a single observed trajectory. Our upper bound relies on a generalization of Mendelson's small-ball method to dependent data, eschewing the use of standard mixing-time arguments. Our lower bounds reveal that these upper bounds match up to logarithmic factors. In particular, we capture the correct signal-to-noise behavior of the problem, showing that more unstable linear systems are easier to estimate. This behavior is qualitatively different from arguments which rely on mixing-time calculations that suggest that unstable systems are more difficult to estimate. We generalize our technique to provide bounds for a more general class of linear response time-series.

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arXiv2018

Delayed Impact of Fair Machine Learning

Fairness in machine learning has predominantly been studied in static classification settings without concern for how decisions change the underlying population over time. Conventional wisdom suggests that fairness criteria promote the long-term well-being of those groups they aim to protect. We study how static fairness criteria interact with temporal indicators of well-being, such as long-term improvement, stagnation, and decline in a variable of interest. We demonstrate that even in a one-step feedback model, common fairness criteria in general do not promote improvement over time, and may in fact cause harm in cases where an unconstrained objective would not. We completely characterize the delayed impact of three standard criteria, contrasting the regimes in which these exhibit qualitatively different behavior. In addition, we find that a natural form of measurement error broadens the regime in which fairness criteria perform favorably. Our results highlight the importance of measurement and temporal modeling in the evaluation of fairness criteria, suggesting a range of new challenges and trade-offs.

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arXiv2018

Approximate Ranking from Pairwise Comparisons

A common problem in machine learning is to rank a set of n items based on pairwise comparisons. Here ranking refers to partitioning the items into sets of pre-specified sizes according to their scores, which includes identification of the top-k items as the most prominent special case. The score of a given item is defined as the probability that it beats a randomly chosen other item. Finding an exact ranking typically requires a prohibitively large number of comparisons, but in practice, approximate rankings are often adequate. Accordingly, we study the problem of finding approximate rankings from pairwise comparisons. We analyze an active ranking algorithm that counts the number of comparisons won, and decides whether to stop or which pair of items to compare next, based on confidence intervals computed from the data collected in previous steps. We show that this algorithm succeeds in recovering approximate rankings using a number of comparisons that is close to optimal up to logarithmic factors. We also present numerical results, showing that in practice, approximation can drastically reduce the number of comparisons required to estimate a ranking.

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arXiv2017

First-order Methods Almost Always Avoid Saddle Points

We establish that first-order methods avoid saddle points for almost all initializations. Our results apply to a wide variety of first-order methods, including gradient descent, block coordinate descent, mirror descent and variants thereof. The connecting thread is that such algorithms can be studied from a dynamical systems perspective in which appropriate instantiations of the Stable Manifold Theorem allow for a global stability analysis. Thus, neither access to second-order derivative information nor randomness beyond initialization is necessary to provably avoid saddle points.

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arXiv2017

On the Gap Between Strict-Saddles and True Convexity: An Omega(log d) Lower Bound for Eigenvector Approximation

We prove a \emph{query complexity} lower bound on rank-one principal component analysis (PCA). We consider an oracle model where, given a symmetric matrix $M \in \mathbb{R}^{d \times d}$, an algorithm is allowed to make $T$ \emph{exact} queries of the form $w^{(i)} = Mv^{(i)}$ for $i \in \{1,\dots,T\}$, where $v^{(i)}$ is drawn from a distribution which depends arbitrarily on the past queries and measurements $\{v^{(j)},w^{(j)}\}_{1 \le j \le i-1}$. We show that for a small constant $ε$, any adaptive, randomized algorithm which can find a unit vector $\widehat{v}$ for which $\widehat{v}^{\top}M\widehat{v} \ge (1-ε)\|M\|$, with even small probability, must make $T = Ω(\log d)$ queries. In addition to settling a widely-held folk conjecture, this bound demonstrates a fundamental gap between convex optimization and "strict-saddle" non-convex optimization of which PCA is a canonical example: in the former, first-order methods can have dimension-free iteration complexity, whereas in PCA, the iteration complexity of gradient-based methods must necessarily grow with the dimension. Our argument proceeds via a reduction to estimating the rank-one spike in a deformed Wigner model. We establish lower bounds for this model by developing a "truncated" analogue of the $χ^2$ Bayes-risk lower bound of Chen et al.

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arXiv2016

Best-of-K Bandits

This paper studies the Best-of-K Bandit game: At each time the player chooses a subset S among all N-choose-K possible options and observes reward max(X(i) : i in S) where X is a random vector drawn from a joint distribution. The objective is to identify the subset that achieves the highest expected reward with high probability using as few queries as possible. We present distribution-dependent lower bounds based on a particular construction which force a learner to consider all N-choose-K subsets, and match naive extensions of known upper bounds in the bandit setting obtained by treating each subset as a separate arm. Nevertheless, we present evidence that exhaustive search may be avoided for certain, favorable distributions because the influence of high-order order correlations may be dominated by lower order statistics. Finally, we present an algorithm and analysis for independent arms, which mitigates the surprising non-trivial information occlusion that occurs due to only observing the max in the subset. This may inform strategies for more general dependent measures, and we complement these result with independent-arm lower bounds.

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arXiv2016

Gradient Descent Converges to Minimizers

We show that gradient descent converges to a local minimizer, almost surely with random initialization. This is proved by applying the Stable Manifold Theorem from dynamical systems theory.

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