arXiv subjects

Max Sina Knicker

Publications and source records attributed to Max Sina Knicker.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Do Venture Capitalists Beat Random Allocation?

Venture capital outcomes are dominated by a small number of extreme successes, making it difficult to distinguish investor skill from favorable realizations in a highly skewed return distribution. We study this question by comparing empirical VC portfolios to a constrained random benchmark that preserves key portfolio characteristics, including timing, geography, sector composition, and portfolio size, while randomizing individual company selection. Across funding stages, empirical portfolio distributions appear remarkably close to their random benchmarks. We find no evidence that portfolio construction increases the probability of high-multiple outcomes: the right tail remains statistically indistinguishable from random allocation. Deviations in the lower part of the distribution are small and sensitive to the interpretation of zero outcomes, suggesting at most weak evidence of downside improvement. We further introduce a rank-based benchmark distribution to evaluate outperformance at each position in the cross-section. This analysis shows that even the best-performing portfolios do not exceed the outcomes expected for their rank under random sampling. Our results suggest that VC portfolio outcomes are largely consistent with constrained random allocation, highlighting the difficulty of identifying aggregate skill in heavy-tailed investment environments. A similar conclusion holds for the performance of financial analysts in predicting future earnings.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Post-COVID Inflation & the Monetary Policy Dilemma: An Agent-Based Scenario Analysis

The economic shocks that followed the COVID-19 pandemic have brought to light the difficulty, both for academics and policy makers, of describing and predicting the dynamics of inflation. This paper offers an alternative modelling approach. We study the 2020-2023 period within the well-studied Mark-0 Agent-Based Model, in which economic agents act and react according to plausible behavioural rules. We include a mechanism through which trust of economic agents in the Central Bank can de-anchor. We investigate the influence of regulatory policies on inflationary dynamics resulting from three exogenous shocks, calibrated on those that followed the COVID-19 pandemic: a production/consumption shock due to COVID-related lockdowns, a supply-chain shock, and an energy price shock exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. By exploring the impact of these shocks under different assumptions about monetary policy efficacy and transmission channels, we review various explanations for the resurgence of inflation in the United States, including demand-pull, cost-push, and profit-driven factors. Our main results are four-fold: (i) without appropriate fiscal policy, the shocked economy can take years to recover, or even tip over into a deep recession; {(ii) the success of monetary policy in curbing inflation is primarily due to expectation anchoring, rather than to the direct economic impact of interest rate hikes; (iii) however, strong inflation anchoring is detrimental to consumption and unemployment, leading to a narrow window of ``optimal'' policy responses due to the trade-off between inflation and unemployment;} (iv) the two most sensitive model parameters are those describing wage and price indexation. The results of our study have implications for Central Bank decision-making, and offers an easy-to-use tool that may help anticipate the consequences of different monetary and fiscal policies.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

The Structure of Occupational Mobility in France

In an era of rapid technological advancements and macroeconomic shifts, worker reallocation is necessary, yet responses to labor market shocks remain sluggish, making it crucial to identify bottlenecks in occupational transitions to understand labor market dynamics and improve mobility. In this study, we analyze French occupational data to uncover patterns of worker mobility and pinpoint specific occupations that act as bottlenecks which impede rapid reallocation. We introduce two metrics, transferability and accessibility, to quantify the diversity of occupational transitions and find that bottlenecks can be explained by a condensation effect of occupations with high accessibility but low transferability. Transferability measures the variety of transitions from an occupation to others, while accessibility assesses the variety of transitions into an occupation. We provide a comprehensive framework for analyzing occupational complexity and mobility patterns, offering insights into potential barriers and pathways for efficient retraining programs. We argue that our approach can inform policymakers and stakeholders aiming to enhance labor market efficiency and support workforce adaptability.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Supermind Ideator: Exploring generative AI to support creative problem-solving

Previous efforts to support creative problem-solving have included (a) techniques (such as brainstorming and design thinking) to stimulate creative ideas, and (b) software tools to record and share these ideas. Now, generative AI technologies can suggest new ideas that might never have occurred to the users, and users can then select from these ideas or use them to stimulate even more ideas. Here, we describe such a system, Supermind Ideator. The system uses a large language model (GPT 3.5) and adds prompting, fine tuning, and a user interface specifically designed to help people use creative problem-solving techniques. Some of these techniques can be applied to any problem; others are specifically intended to help generate innovative ideas about how to design groups of people and/or computers ("superminds"). We also describe our early experiences with using this system and suggest ways it could be extended to support additional techniques for other specific problem-solving domains.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Exploration of the Parameter Space in Macroeconomic Agent-Based Models

Agent-Based Models (ABM) are computational scenario-generators, which can be used to predict the possible future outcomes of the complex system they represent. To better understand the robustness of these predictions, it is necessary to understand the full scope of the possible phenomena the model can generate. Most often, due to high-dimensional parameter spaces, this is a computationally expensive task. Inspired by ideas coming from systems biology, we show that for multiple macroeconomic models, including an agent-based model and several Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, there are only a few stiff parameter combinations that have strong effects, while the other sloppy directions are irrelevant. This suggest an algorithm that efficiently explores the space of parameters by primarily moving along the stiff directions. We apply our algorithm to a medium-sized agent-based model, and show that it recovers all possible dynamics of the unemployment rate. The application of this method to Agent-based Models may lead to a more thorough and robust understanding of their features, and provide enhanced parameter sensitivity analyses. Several promising paths for future research are discussed.

econ.GN↗