arXiv subjects

Maxime Méloux

Publications and source records attributed to Maxime Méloux.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Validating Causal Abstraction Metrics on Simulated Complex Systems

A central goal of science is to produce valid explanations of complex systems: high-level causal accounts that faithfully reflect the behavior of lower-level mechanisms. Yet no consensus exists on how to measure whether a proposed high-level explanation is actually valid. We introduce a benchmark of ten complex systems spanning both discrete and continuous state spaces, as well as static and dynamical regimes, each equipped with consensual ground-truth causal explanations and invalid contrastive conditions. Within a unified causal abstraction framework, we systematically evaluate over thirty candidate metrics drawn from observational, functional, information-theoretic, and causal families. Our results show that only the latter reliably discriminates valid from invalid abstractions, and only when incorporating faithfulness testing over unmapped variables. Building on these findings, we introduce the Causal Abstraction Error (CAE), a continuous validity metric with an explicit faithfulness test, which passes all discrimination tests across every system and can converge with as few as 30 sampled interventions. We offer it as a general-purpose metric for the discovery and validation of high-level explanations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

MIST: Mutual Information Estimation Via Supervised Training

We propose a fully data-driven approach to designing mutual information (MI) estimators. Since any MI estimator is a function of the observed sample from two random variables, we parameterize this function with a neural network (MIST) and train it end-to-end to predict MI values. Training is performed on a large meta-dataset of 625,000 synthetic joint distributions with known ground-truth MI. To handle variable sample sizes and dimensions, we employ a two-dimensional attention scheme ensuring permutation invariance across input samples. To quantify uncertainty, we optimize a quantile regression loss, enabling the estimator to approximate the sampling distribution of MI rather than return a single point estimate. This research program departs from prior work by taking a fully empirical route, trading universal theoretical guarantees for flexibility and efficiency. Empirically, the learned estimators largely outperform classical baselines across sample sizes and dimensions, including on joint distributions unseen during training. The resulting quantile-based intervals are well-calibrated and more reliable than bootstrap-based confidence intervals, while inference is orders of magnitude faster than existing neural baselines. Beyond immediate empirical gains, this framework yields trainable, fully differentiable estimators that can be embedded into larger learning pipelines. Moreover, exploiting MI's invariance to invertible transformations, meta-datasets can be adapted to arbitrary data modalities via normalizing flows, enabling flexible training for diverse target meta-distributions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Mechanistic Interpretability as Statistical Estimation: A Variance Analysis

Mechanistic Interpretability (MI) aims to reverse-engineer model behaviors by identifying functional sub-networks. Yet, the scientific validity of these findings depends on their stability. In this work, we argue that circuit discovery is not a standalone task but a statistical estimation problem built upon causal mediation analysis (CMA). We uncover a fundamental instability at this base layer: exact, single-input CMA scores exhibit high intrinsic variance, implying that the causal effect of a component is a volatile random variable rather than a fixed property. We then demonstrate that circuit discovery pipelines inherit this variance and further amplify it. Fast approximation methods, such as Edge Attribution Patching and its successors, introduce additional estimation noise, while aggregating these noisy scores over datasets leads to fragile structural estimates. Consequently, small perturbations in input data or hyperparameters yield vastly different circuits. We systematically decompose these sources of variance and advocate for more rigorous MI practices, prioritizing statistical robustness and routine reporting of stability metrics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

The Dead Salmons of AI Interpretability

In a striking neuroscience study, the authors placed a dead salmon in an MRI scanner and showed it images of humans in social situations. Astonishingly, standard analyses of the time reported brain regions predictive of social emotions. The explanation, of course, was not supernatural cognition but a cautionary tale about misapplied statistical inference. In AI interpretability, reports of similar ''dead salmon'' artifacts abound: feature attribution, probing, sparse auto-encoding, and even causal analyses can produce plausible-looking explanations for randomly initialized neural networks. In this work, we examine this phenomenon and argue for a pragmatic statistical-causal reframing: explanations of computational systems should be treated as parameters of a (statistical) model, inferred from computational traces. This perspective goes beyond simply measuring statistical variability of explanations due to finite sampling of input data; interpretability methods become statistical estimators, and findings should be tested against explicit and meaningful alternative computational hypotheses, with uncertainty quantified with respect to the postulated statistical model. It also highlights important theoretical issues, such as the identifiability of common interpretability queries, which we argue is critical to understand the field's susceptibility to false discoveries, poor generalizability, and high variance. More broadly, situating interpretability within the standard toolkit of statistical inference opens promising avenues for future work aimed at turning AI interpretability into a pragmatic and rigorous science.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Everything, Everywhere, All at Once: Is Mechanistic Interpretability Identifiable?

As AI systems are used in high-stakes applications, ensuring interpretability is crucial. Mechanistic Interpretability (MI) aims to reverse-engineer neural networks by extracting human-understandable algorithms to explain their behavior. This work examines a key question: for a given behavior, and under MI's criteria, does a unique explanation exist? Drawing on identifiability in statistics, where parameters are uniquely inferred under specific assumptions, we explore the identifiability of MI explanations. We identify two main MI strategies: (1) "where-then-what," which isolates a circuit replicating model behavior before interpreting it, and (2) "what-then-where," which starts with candidate algorithms and searches for neural activation subspaces implementing them, using causal alignment. We test both strategies on Boolean functions and small multi-layer perceptrons, fully enumerating candidate explanations. Our experiments reveal systematic non-identifiability: multiple circuits can replicate behavior, a circuit can have multiple interpretations, several algorithms can align with the network, and one algorithm can align with different subspaces. Is uniqueness necessary? A pragmatic approach may require only predictive and manipulability standards. If uniqueness is essential for understanding, stricter criteria may be needed. We also reference the inner interpretability framework, which validates explanations through multiple criteria. This work contributes to defining explanation standards in AI.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Novel-WD: Exploring acquisition of Novel World Knowledge in LLMs Using Prefix-Tuning

Teaching new information to pre-trained large language models (PLM) is a crucial but challenging task. Model adaptation techniques, such as fine-tuning and parameter-efficient training have been shown to store new facts at a slow rate; continual learning is an option but is costly and prone to catastrophic forgetting. This work studies and quantifies how PLM may learn and remember new world knowledge facts that do not occur in their pre-training corpus, which only contains world knowledge up to a certain date. To that purpose, we first propose Novel-WD, a new dataset consisting of sentences containing novel facts extracted from recent Wikidata updates, along with two evaluation tasks in the form of causal language modeling and multiple choice questions (MCQ). We make this dataset freely available to the community, and release a procedure to later build new versions of similar datasets with up-to-date information. We also explore the use of prefix-tuning for novel information learning, and analyze how much information can be stored within a given prefix. We show that a single fact can reliably be encoded within a single prefix, and that the prefix capacity increases with its length and with the base model size.

cs.CL↗