arXiv subjects

Maximilian Bernecker

Publications and source records attributed to Maximilian Bernecker.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Direct Air Capture in Europe's 2050 Energy System: Integration, Storage and Cost Drivers

Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) can mitigate hard-to-abate emissions, e.g. from transport or industry. However, there is a wide variety of cost estimates for DACCS, driven, to a significant extent, by differences in electricity cost. At the same time, there is a notable gap in research that integrates direct air capturing systems into long-term energy system models. We separate direct air capturing, carbon transport, and carbon storage and integrate them into a European capacity expansion model for a fully decarbonised electricity system in 2050. We explore how two dimensions affect the total system costs of DACCS. The first dimension is the availability of CO2 storage locations: In one analysis, storage locations are restricted to offshore storage locations in the North Sea only, i.e. depleted natural gas fields. The alternative analysis comprises suitable storage locations distributed across Europe, including onshore. We find that limiting CO2 storage to North Sea sites increases overall capture costs by approximately 10 %. The second dimension is whether DACCS is analysed as stand-alone or integrated into the electricity system. We differentiate between three alternatives: fully isolated, fully integrated, and retrospectively added to an existing system. We find that neglecting system integration - i.e. treating direct air capture system as a stand-alone technology - increases capture costs by up to 30 %.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

The Competitiveness of Renewables: An Analysis of Magnitude, Geography, and Drivers

While renewable energy sources are the fastest-growing electricity generation technology globally, their competitiveness is still the subject of controversy. This paper presents an electricity system model for investment and dispatch to determine the cost-optimal shares of renewable energy sources. We compute and analyse renewable generation shares in market equilibrium for Germany and Texas, using annual data for 2015 to 2024, and in five-year intervals for 2030 to 2050. Furthermore, we identify the key drivers of the renewable competitiveness and quantify their contribution through parameter variations. Our results show that renewable generation achieves considerable market shares even without subsidies. In Germany, the increase in renewable generation is primarily driven by CO2 pricing, complemented by declining investment costs for renewable technologies. In Texas, solar PV is part of the cost-optimal system, even in the absence of CO2 pricing and despite low natural gas prices.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Adaptive Robust Optimization for European Electricity System Planning Considering Regional Dunkelflaute Events

The expansion of wind and solar power is driving the European energy system transformation, thereby also driving our reliance on this weather-dependent resources. Integrating renewable scarcity events into long-term planning has therefore become essential. This study demonstrates how worst-case regional renewable scarcity events - such as the Dunkelflaute, prolonged periods of low wind and solar availability - can be incorporated endogenously into the planning of a weather-robust, interconnected energy system. We develop a capacity expansion model for a fully decarbonized European electricity system using an adaptive robust optimization framework which incorporates multiple extreme weather realizations within a single optimization run. Results show that system costs rise nonlinearly with the geographic extent of these events: a single worst-case regional disruption increases costs by 9%, but broader disruptions across multiple regions lead to much sharper increases, up to 51%. As Dunkelflaute conditions extend across most of Europe, additional cost impacts level off, with a maximum increase of 71%. The optimal technology mix evolves with the severity of weather stress: while renewables, batteries, and interregional transmission are sufficient to manage localized events, large-scale disruptions require long-term hydrogen storage and load shedding to maintain system resilience. Central European regions, especially Germany and France, emerge as systemic bottlenecks, while peripheral regions bear the cost of compensatory overbuilding. These findings underscore the need for a coordinated European policy strategy that goes beyond national planning to support cross-border infrastructure investment, scale up flexible technologies such as long-duration storage, and promote a geographically balanced deployment of renewables to mitigate systemic risks associated with Dunkelflaute events.

econ.GN↗