arXiv subjects

Maximilian J. Werner

Publications and source records attributed to Maximilian J. Werner.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

SB-ETAS: using simulation based inference for scalable, likelihood-free inference for the ETAS model of earthquake occurrences

Performing Bayesian inference for the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model of earthquakes typically requires MCMC sampling using the likelihood function or estimating the latent branching structure. These tasks have computational complexity $O(n^2)$ with the number of earthquakes and therefore do not scale well with new enhanced catalogs, which can now contain an order of $10^6$ events. On the other hand, simulation from the ETAS model can be done more quickly $O(n \log n )$. We present SB-ETAS: simulation-based inference for the ETAS model. This is an approximate Bayesian method which uses Sequential Neural Posterior Estimation (SNPE), a machine learning based algorithm for learning posterior distributions from simulations. SB-ETAS can successfully approximate ETAS posterior distributions on shorter catalogues where it is computationally feasible to compare with MCMC sampling. Furthermore, the scaling of SB-ETAS makes it feasible to fit to very large earthquake catalogs, such as one for Southern California dating back to 1932. SB-ETAS can find Bayesian estimates of ETAS parameters for this catalog in less than 10 hours on a standard laptop, which would have taken over 2 weeks using MCMC. Looking beyond the standard ETAS model, this simulation based framework would allow earthquake modellers to define and infer parameters for much more complex models that have intractable likelihood functions.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

DAS-N2N: Machine learning Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) signal denoising without clean data

This article presents a weakly supervised machine learning method, which we call DAS-N2N, for suppressing strong random noise in distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) recordings. DAS-N2N requires no manually produced labels (i.e., pre-determined examples of clean event signals or sections of noise) for training and aims to map random noise processes to a chosen summary statistic, such as the distribution mean, median or mode, whilst retaining the true underlying signal. This is achieved by splicing (joining together) two fibres hosted within a single optical cable, recording two noisy copies of the same underlying signal corrupted by different independent realizations of random observational noise. A deep learning model can then be trained using only these two noisy copies of the data to produce a near fully-denoised copy. Once the model is trained, only noisy data from a single fibre is required. Using a dataset from a DAS array deployed on the surface of the Rutford Ice Stream in Antarctica, we demonstrate that DAS-N2N greatly suppresses incoherent noise and enhances the signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) of natural microseismic icequake events. We further show that this approach is inherently more efficient and effective than standard stop/pass band and white noise (e.g., Wiener) filtering routines, as well as a comparable self-supervised learning method based on masking individual DAS channels. Our preferred model for this task is lightweight, processing 30 seconds of data recorded at a sampling frequency of 1000 Hz over 985 channels (approx. 1 km of fiber) in $<$1 s. Due to the high noise levels in DAS recordings, efficient data-driven denoising methods, such as DAS-N2N, will prove essential to time-critical DAS earthquake detection, particularly in the case of microseismic monitoring.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2023

Forecasting the 2016-2017 Central Apennines Earthquake Sequence with a Neural Point Process

Point processes have been dominant in modeling the evolution of seismicity for decades, with the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model being most popular. Recent advances in machine learning have constructed highly flexible point process models using neural networks to improve upon existing parametric models. We investigate whether these flexible point process models can be applied to short-term seismicity forecasting by extending an existing temporal neural model to the magnitude domain and we show how this model can forecast earthquakes above a target magnitude threshold. We first demonstrate that the neural model can fit synthetic ETAS data, however, requiring less computational time because it is not dependent on the full history of the sequence. By artificially emulating short-term aftershock incompleteness in the synthetic dataset, we find that the neural model outperforms ETAS. Using a new enhanced catalog from the 2016-2017 Central Apennines earthquake sequence, we investigate the predictive skill of ETAS and the neural model with respect to the lowest input magnitude. Constructing multiple forecasting experiments using the Visso, Norcia and Campotosto earthquakes to partition training and testing data, we target M3+ events. We find both models perform similarly at previously explored thresholds (e.g., above M3), but lowering the threshold to M1.2 reduces the performance of ETAS unlike the neural model. We argue that some of these gains are due to the neural model's ability to handle incomplete data. The robustness to missing data and speed to train the neural model present it as an encouraging competitor in earthquake forecasting.

physics.geo-ph↗