arXiv subjects

Maximilian Kaiser

Publications and source records attributed to Maximilian Kaiser.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Competition-Aware CPC Forecasting with Near-Market Coverage

Cost-per-click (CPC) in paid search is an auction-generated outcome shaped by a competitive landscape that is only partially observable from any single advertiser's history. From 1.66 billion Google Ads log records for a concentrated car-rental market (2021-2023), we construct a weekly panel of 1,811 keyword series over 127 weeks (218,924 keyword-week observations) and build competition-aware proxies from keyword text, CPC trajectories, and geographic market structure. The design combines (i) semantic neighborhoods and a semantic keyword graph from pretrained transformer-based keyword representations, (ii) behavioral neighborhoods from Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) alignment of CPC trajectories, and (iii) geographic-intent covariates capturing localized demand and marketplace heterogeneity. We evaluate these signals both as exogenous covariates and as relational priors in spatiotemporal graph forecasters, benchmarking them against statistical, neural, and time-series foundation-model baselines. The results reveal a clear horizon crossover. At one week, graph-based models achieve the lowest error, reducing sMAPE by 15.1% relative to the strongest classical/ML baseline; at the six- and twelve-week horizons, covariate-augmented foundation models dominate, reducing sMAPE by 22.5% and 27.6%, respectively. The gains concentrate in the high-CPC, high-volatility keywords where forecasting errors are most costly. A falsification battery supports the competition interpretation at the planning horizon: the semantic competition graph outperforms a confounder-matched non-competitive graph by 4.05 sMAPE points, and matched-neighbour and time-shuffled controls show the six-week gains are competition-specific rather than generic smoothing. Together, the findings establish a horizon-dependent competition-aware forecasting design for auction-driven advertising markets under partial observability.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Atom and spin resolved imaging in a single shot

We report on an imaging scheme for quantum gases that enables simultaneous detection of two spin states with single-atom resolution. It utilizes the polarization of the emitted photons during fluorescence by choosing appropriate internal states of lithium-6 atoms in a magnetic field. This scheme can readily be implemented to obtain in-situ spin correlations in a wide variety of experimental settings.

cond-mat.quant-gas↗

arXiv2025

Cross-Platform E-Commerce Product Categorization and Recategorization: A Multimodal Hierarchical Classification Approach

This study addresses critical industrial challenges in e-commerce product categorization, namely platform heterogeneity and the structural limitations of existing taxonomies, by developing and deploying a multimodal hierarchical classification framework. Using a dataset of 271,700 products from 40 international fashion e-commerce platforms, we integrate textual features (RoBERTa), visual features (ViT), and joint vision-language representations (CLIP). We investigate fusion strategies, including early, late, and attention-based fusion within a hierarchical architecture enhanced by dynamic masking to ensure taxonomic consistency. Results show that CLIP embeddings combined via an MLP-based late-fusion strategy achieve the highest hierarchical F1 (98.59%), outperforming unimodal baselines. To address shallow or inconsistent categories, we further introduce a self-supervised "product recategorization" pipeline using SimCLR, UMAP, and cascade clustering, which discovered new, fine-grained categories (for example, subtypes of "Shoes") with cluster purities above 86%. Cross-platform experiments reveal a deployment-relevant trade-off: complex late-fusion methods maximize accuracy with diverse training data, while simpler early-fusion methods generalize more effectively to unseen platforms. Finally, we demonstrate the framework's industrial scalability through deployment in EURWEB's commercial transaction intelligence platform via a two-stage inference pipeline, combining a lightweight RoBERTa stage with a GPU-accelerated multimodal stage to balance cost and accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

A modular quantum gas platform

We report on the development of a modular platform for programmable quantum simulation with atomic quantum gases. The platform is centered around exchangeable optical modules with versatile functionalities. The performance of each module is disentangled from all others, enabling individual validation and maintenance of its outputs. The relative spatial positioning of the modules with respect to the position of the atomic sample is set by a global reference frame. In this way, the platform simplifies re-configuration and upgrading of existing setups and accelerates the design of new machines in a time- and cost-efficient manner. Furthermore, it facilitates collaboration among different experimental groups. This standardized hardware design framework, which we call Heidelberg Quantum Architecture, paves the way towards a new generation of on-demand and highly adaptable quantum simulation experiments.

cond-mat.quant-gas↗

arXiv2024

Interpretable Deep Learning for Forecasting Online Advertising Costs: Insights from the Competitive Bidding Landscape

As advertisers increasingly shift their budgets toward digital advertising, accurately forecasting advertising costs becomes essential for optimizing marketing campaign returns. This paper presents a comprehensive study that employs various time-series forecasting methods to predict daily average CPC in the online advertising market. We evaluate the performance of statistical models, machine learning techniques, and deep learning approaches, including the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT). Our findings reveal that incorporating multivariate models, enriched with covariates derived from competitors' CPC patterns through time-series clustering, significantly improves forecasting accuracy. We interpret the results by analyzing feature importance and temporal attention, demonstrating how the models leverage both the advertiser's data and insights from the competitive landscape. Additionally, our method proves robust during major market shifts, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, consistently outperforming models that rely solely on individual advertisers' data. This study introduces a scalable technique for selecting relevant covariates from a broad pool of advertisers, offering more accurate long-term forecasts and strategic insights into budget allocation and competitive dynamics in digital advertising.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Beyond Rankings: Exploring the Impact of SERP Features on Organic Click-through Rates

Search Engine Result Pages (SERPs) serve as the digital gateways to the vast expanse of the internet. Past decades have witnessed a surge in research primarily centered on the influence of website ranking on these pages, to determine the click-through rate (CTR). However, during this period, the landscape of SERPs has undergone a dramatic evolution: SERP features, encompassing elements such as knowledge panels, media galleries, FAQs, and more, have emerged as an increasingly prominent facet of these result pages. Our study examines the crucial role of these features, revealing them to be not merely aesthetic components, but strongly influence CTR and the associated behavior of internet users. We demonstrate how these features can significantly modulate web traffic, either amplifying or attenuating it. We dissect these intricate interaction effects leveraging a unique dataset of 67,000 keywords and their respective Google SERPs, spanning over 40 distinct US-based e-commerce domains, generating over 6 million clicks from 24 million views. This cross-website dataset, unprecedented in its scope, enables us to assess the impact of 24 different SERP features on organic CTR. Through an ablation study modeling CTR, we illustrate the incremental predictive power these features hold.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2021

Online Advertising Revenue Forecasting: An Interpretable Deep Learning Approach

Online advertising revenues account for an increasing share of publishers' revenue streams, especially for small and medium-sized publishers who depend on the advertisement networks of tech companies such as Google and Facebook. Thus publishers may benefit significantly from accurate online advertising revenue forecasts to better manage their website monetization strategies. However, publishers who only have access to their own revenue data lack a holistic view of the total ad market of publishers, which in turn limits their ability to generate insights into their own future online advertising revenues. To address this business issue, we leverage a proprietary database encompassing Google Adsense revenues from a large collection of publishers in diverse areas. We adopt the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) model, a novel attention-based architecture to predict publishers' advertising revenues. We leverage multiple covariates, including not only the publisher's own characteristics but also other publishers' advertising revenues. Our prediction results outperform several benchmark deep-learning time-series forecast models over multiple time horizons. Moreover, we interpret the results by analyzing variable importance weights to identify significant features and self-attention weights to reveal persistent temporal patterns.

cs.LG↗