arXiv subjects

Maximilian Muschalik

Publications and source records attributed to Maximilian Muschalik.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

ShaplEIG: Bayesian Experimental Design for Shapley Value Estimation

Shapley values are a principled attribution measure widely used in interpretable machine learning, but their exact computation scales exponentially with the number of players, motivating a wide range of approximation methods based on value function evaluations of sampled coalitions. This raises the question of whether approximation accuracy can be improved by adaptively selecting coalitions for evaluation based on previous evaluations. This is particularly relevant in settings where the value function is costly and the number of evaluations is severely limited, such as retraining-based feature importance, data valuation, and hyperparameter importance. For this purpose, we propose ShaplEIG, a Bayesian experimental design approach that approximates the expensive value function using a Gaussian process surrogate and adaptively selects coalitions based on their expected information gain about the Shapley values. By the linearity of the Shapley values in the value function, we show that the expected information gain is available in closed form. Furthermore, we propose an efficient computation scheme that reduces the complexity from exponential to polynomial in the number of players via elementary symmetric polynomials. In extensive experiments across diverse costly applications, our method consistently improves sample efficiency in the low-budget regime over state-of-the-art baselines.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Proxy-Based Approximation of Shapley and Banzhaf Interactions

Shapley and Banzhaf interactions capture the complex dynamics inherent in modern machine learning applications. However, current estimators for these higher-order interactions trade off between speed and accuracy. To overcome this limitation, we introduce ProxySHAP. ProxySHAP reconciles the high sample efficiency of tree-based proxy models with a principled path to consistency via residual correction. On a theoretical level, we derive a polynomial-time generalization of interventional TreeSHAP to compute exact interaction indices for tree ensembles, successfully bypassing exponential tree-depth dependencies in prior methods. Furthermore, we formally analyze the residual adjustment strategy, characterizing the specific conditions under which Maximum Sample Reuse (MSR) corrects proxy bias without its variance scaling exponentially with interaction size. Extensive benchmarking demonstrates that ProxySHAP sets a new state-of-the-art standard for approximation quality, including in large-scale applications with thousands of features. By achieving the lowest error in both small- and large-budget regimes, ProxySHAP significantly outperforms the prior best estimators ProxySPEX and KernelSHAP-IQ, while also delivering superior performance on downstream explainability tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

ConfoundingSHAP: Quantifying confounding strength in causal inference

In causal inference, confounders are variables that influence both treatment decisions and outcomes. However, unlike as in randomized clinical trials, the treatment assignment mechanism in observational studies is not known, and it is thus unclear which covariates act as confounders. Here, we aim to generate insight for causal inference and answer: which of the observed covariates act as confounders? We introduce ConfoundingSHAP, a Shapley-based method for attributing confounding strength to individual covariates. Our contributions are twofold. First, we propose a Shapley game targeted to infer the confounding strength of the covariates. Our resulting Shapley values differ from the standard applications of SHAP explanations on causal targets, such as understanding treatment effect heterogeneity, which are ill-suited for our task. Second, as our task requires evaluating the value function over many adjustment sets, we provide a scalable TabPFN-based estimation that avoids exhaustive refitting. We demonstrate the practical value across various datasets, where ConfoundingSHAP provides informative explanations of which observed covariates drive confounding and thereby helps to provide more insight for causal inference in practice.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Efficient Credal Prediction through Decalibration

A reliable representation of uncertainty is essential for the application of modern machine learning methods in safety-critical settings. In this regard, the use of credal sets (i.e., convex sets of probability distributions) has recently been proposed as a suitable approach to representing epistemic uncertainty. However, as with other approaches to epistemic uncertainty, training credal predictors is computationally complex and usually involves (re-)training an ensemble of models. The resulting computational complexity prevents their adoption for complex models such as foundation models and multi-modal systems. To address this problem, we propose an efficient method for credal prediction that is grounded in the notion of relative likelihood and inspired by techniques for the calibration of probabilistic classifiers. For each class label, our method predicts a range of plausible probabilities in the form of an interval. To produce the lower and upper bounds of these intervals, we propose a technique that we refer to as decalibration. Extensive experiments show that our method yields credal sets with strong performance across diverse tasks, including coverage-efficiency evaluation, out-of-distribution detection, and in-context learning. Notably, we demonstrate credal prediction on models such as TabPFN and CLIP -- architectures for which the construction of credal sets was previously infeasible.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Exactly Computing do-Shapley Values

Structural Causal Models (SCM) are a powerful framework for describing complicated dynamics across the natural sciences. A particularly elegant way of interpreting SCMs is do-Shapley, a game-theoretic method of quantifying the average effect of $d$ variables across exponentially many interventions. Like Shapley values, computing do-Shapley values generally requires evaluating exponentially many terms. The foundation of our work is a reformulation of do-Shapley values in terms of the irreducible sets of the underlying SCM. Leveraging this insight, we can exactly compute do-Shapley values in time linear in the number of irreducible sets $r$, which itself can range from $d$ to $2^d$ depending on the graph structure of the SCM. Since $r$ is unknown a priori, we complement the exact algorithm with an estimator that, like general Shapley value estimators, can be run with any query budget. As the query budget approaches $r$, our estimators can produce more accurate estimates than prior methods by several orders of magnitude, and, when the budget reaches $r$, return the Shapley values up to machine precision. Beyond computational speed, we also reduce the identification burden: we prove that non-parametric identifiability of do-Shapley values requires only the identification of interventional effects for the $d$ singleton coalitions, rather than all classes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

GRANITE: A Generalized Regional Framework for Identifying Agreement in Feature-Based Explanations

Feature-based explanation methods aim to quantify how features influence the model's behavior, either locally or globally, but different methods often disagree, producing conflicting explanations. This disagreement arises primarily from two sources: how feature interactions are handled and how feature dependencies are incorporated. We propose GRANITE, a generalized regional explanation framework that partitions the feature space into regions where interaction and distribution influences are minimized. This approach aligns different explanation methods, yielding more consistent and interpretable explanations. GRANITE unifies existing regional approaches, extends them to feature groups, and introduces a recursive partitioning algorithm to estimate such regions. We demonstrate its effectiveness on real-world datasets, providing a practical tool for consistent and interpretable feature explanations.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Explaining Similarity in Vision-Language Encoders with Weighted Banzhaf Interactions

Language-image pre-training (LIP) enables the development of vision-language models capable of zero-shot classification, localization, multimodal retrieval, and semantic understanding. Various explanation methods have been proposed to visualize the importance of input image-text pairs on the model's similarity outputs. However, popular saliency maps are limited by capturing only first-order attributions, overlooking the complex cross-modal interactions intrinsic to such encoders. We introduce faithful interaction explanations of LIP models (FIxLIP) as a unified approach to decomposing the similarity in vision-language encoders. FIxLIP is rooted in game theory, where we analyze how using the weighted Banzhaf interaction index offers greater flexibility and improves computational efficiency over the Shapley interaction quantification framework. From a practical perspective, we propose how to naturally extend explanation evaluation metrics, such as the pointing game and area between the insertion/deletion curves, to second-order interaction explanations. Experiments on the MS COCO and ImageNet-1k benchmarks validate that second-order methods, such as FIxLIP, outperform first-order attribution methods. Beyond delivering high-quality explanations, we demonstrate the utility of FIxLIP in comparing different models, e.g. CLIP vs. SigLIP-2.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Adaptive Prompting: Ad-hoc Prompt Composition for Social Bias Detection

Recent advances on instruction fine-tuning have led to the development of various prompting techniques for large language models, such as explicit reasoning steps. However, the success of techniques depends on various parameters, such as the task, language model, and context provided. Finding an effective prompt is, therefore, often a trial-and-error process. Most existing approaches to automatic prompting aim to optimize individual techniques instead of compositions of techniques and their dependence on the input. To fill this gap, we propose an adaptive prompting approach that predicts the optimal prompt composition ad-hoc for a given input. We apply our approach to social bias detection, a highly context-dependent task that requires semantic understanding. We evaluate it with three large language models on three datasets, comparing compositions to individual techniques and other baselines. The results underline the importance of finding an effective prompt composition. Our approach robustly ensures high detection performance, and is best in several settings. Moreover, first experiments on other tasks support its generalizability.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

HyperSHAP: Shapley Values and Interactions for Explaining Hyperparameter Optimization

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is a crucial step in achieving strong predictive performance. Yet, the impact of individual hyperparameters on model generalization is highly context-dependent, prohibiting a one-size-fits-all solution and requiring opaque HPO methods to find optimal configurations. However, the black-box nature of most HPO methods undermines user trust and discourages adoption. To address this, we propose a game-theoretic explainability framework for HPO based on Shapley values and interactions. Our approach provides an additive decomposition of a performance measure across hyperparameters, enabling local and global explanations of hyperparameters' contributions and their interactions. The framework, named HyperSHAP, offers insights into ablation studies, the tunability of learning algorithms, and optimizer behavior across different hyperparameter spaces. We demonstrate HyperSHAP's capabilities on various HPO benchmarks to analyze the interaction structure of the corresponding HPO problems, demonstrating its broad applicability and actionable insights for improving HPO.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Exact Computation of Any-Order Shapley Interactions for Graph Neural Networks

Albeit the ubiquitous use of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) in machine learning (ML) prediction tasks involving graph-structured data, their interpretability remains challenging. In explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), the Shapley Value (SV) is the predominant method to quantify contributions of individual features to a ML model's output. Addressing the limitations of SVs in complex prediction models, Shapley Interactions (SIs) extend the SV to groups of features. In this work, we explain single graph predictions of GNNs with SIs that quantify node contributions and interactions among multiple nodes. By exploiting the GNN architecture, we show that the structure of interactions in node embeddings are preserved for graph prediction. As a result, the exponential complexity of SIs depends only on the receptive fields, i.e. the message-passing ranges determined by the connectivity of the graph and the number of convolutional layers. Based on our theoretical results, we introduce GraphSHAP-IQ, an efficient approach to compute any-order SIs exactly. GraphSHAP-IQ is applicable to popular message passing techniques in conjunction with a linear global pooling and output layer. We showcase that GraphSHAP-IQ substantially reduces the exponential complexity of computing exact SIs on multiple benchmark datasets. Beyond exact computation, we evaluate GraphSHAP-IQ's approximation of SIs on popular GNN architectures and compare with existing baselines. Lastly, we visualize SIs of real-world water distribution networks and molecule structures using a SI-Graph.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Unifying Feature-Based Explanations with Functional ANOVA and Cooperative Game Theory

Feature-based explanations, using perturbations or gradients, are a prevalent tool to understand decisions of black box machine learning models. Yet, differences between these methods still remain mostly unknown, which limits their applicability for practitioners. In this work, we introduce a unified framework for local and global feature-based explanations using two well-established concepts: functional ANOVA (fANOVA) from statistics, and the notion of value and interaction from cooperative game theory. We introduce three fANOVA decompositions that determine the influence of feature distributions, and use game-theoretic measures, such as the Shapley value and interactions, to specify the influence of higher-order interactions. Our framework combines these two dimensions to uncover similarities and differences between a wide range of explanation techniques for features and groups of features. We then empirically showcase the usefulness of our framework on synthetic and real-world datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

shapiq: Shapley Interactions for Machine Learning

Originally rooted in game theory, the Shapley Value (SV) has recently become an important tool in machine learning research. Perhaps most notably, it is used for feature attribution and data valuation in explainable artificial intelligence. Shapley Interactions (SIs) naturally extend the SV and address its limitations by assigning joint contributions to groups of entities, which enhance understanding of black box machine learning models. Due to the exponential complexity of computing SVs and SIs, various methods have been proposed that exploit structural assumptions or yield probabilistic estimates given limited resources. In this work, we introduce shapiq, an open-source Python package that unifies state-of-the-art algorithms to efficiently compute SVs and any-order SIs in an application-agnostic framework. Moreover, it includes a benchmarking suite containing 11 machine learning applications of SIs with pre-computed games and ground-truth values to systematically assess computational performance across domains. For practitioners, shapiq is able to explain and visualize any-order feature interactions in predictions of models, including vision transformers, language models, as well as XGBoost and LightGBM with TreeSHAP-IQ. With shapiq, we extend shap beyond feature attributions and consolidate the application of SVs and SIs in machine learning that facilitates future research. The source code and documentation are available at https://github.com/mmschlk/shapiq.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

KernelSHAP-IQ: Weighted Least-Square Optimization for Shapley Interactions

The Shapley value (SV) is a prevalent approach of allocating credit to machine learning (ML) entities to understand black box ML models. Enriching such interpretations with higher-order interactions is inevitable for complex systems, where the Shapley Interaction Index (SII) is a direct axiomatic extension of the SV. While it is well-known that the SV yields an optimal approximation of any game via a weighted least square (WLS) objective, an extension of this result to SII has been a long-standing open problem, which even led to the proposal of an alternative index. In this work, we characterize higher-order SII as a solution to a WLS problem, which constructs an optimal approximation via SII and $k$-Shapley values ($k$-SII). We prove this representation for the SV and pairwise SII and give empirically validated conjectures for higher orders. As a result, we propose KernelSHAP-IQ, a direct extension of KernelSHAP for SII, and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance for feature interactions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Effector: A Python package for regional explanations

Effector is a Python package for interpreting machine learning (ML) models that are trained on tabular data through global and regional feature effects. Global effects, like Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) and Accumulated Local Effects (ALE), are widely used for explaining tabular ML models due to their simplicity -- each feature's average influence on the prediction is summarized by a single 1D plot. However, when features are interacting, global effects can be misleading. Regional effects address this by partitioning the input space into disjoint subregions with minimal interactions within each and computing a separate regional effect per subspace. Regional effects are then visualized by a set of 1D plots per feature. Effector provides efficient implementations of state-of-the-art global and regional feature effects methods under a unified API. The package integrates seamlessly with major ML libraries like scikit-learn and PyTorch. It is designed to be modular and extensible, and comes with comprehensive documentation and tutorials. Effector is an open-source project publicly available on Github at https://github.com/givasile/effector.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

SVARM-IQ: Efficient Approximation of Any-order Shapley Interactions through Stratification

Addressing the limitations of individual attribution scores via the Shapley value (SV), the field of explainable AI (XAI) has recently explored intricate interactions of features or data points. In particular, extensions of the SV, such as the Shapley Interaction Index (SII), have been proposed as a measure to still benefit from the axiomatic basis of the SV. However, similar to the SV, their exact computation remains computationally prohibitive. Hence, we propose with SVARM-IQ a sampling-based approach to efficiently approximate Shapley-based interaction indices of any order. SVARM-IQ can be applied to a broad class of interaction indices, including the SII, by leveraging a novel stratified representation. We provide non-asymptotic theoretical guarantees on its approximation quality and empirically demonstrate that SVARM-IQ achieves state-of-the-art estimation results in practical XAI scenarios on different model classes and application domains.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Beyond TreeSHAP: Efficient Computation of Any-Order Shapley Interactions for Tree Ensembles

While shallow decision trees may be interpretable, larger ensemble models like gradient-boosted trees, which often set the state of the art in machine learning problems involving tabular data, still remain black box models. As a remedy, the Shapley value (SV) is a well-known concept in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) research for quantifying additive feature attributions of predictions. The model-specific TreeSHAP methodology solves the exponential complexity for retrieving exact SVs from tree-based models. Expanding beyond individual feature attribution, Shapley interactions reveal the impact of intricate feature interactions of any order. In this work, we present TreeSHAP-IQ, an efficient method to compute any-order additive Shapley interactions for predictions of tree-based models. TreeSHAP-IQ is supported by a mathematical framework that exploits polynomial arithmetic to compute the interaction scores in a single recursive traversal of the tree, akin to Linear TreeSHAP. We apply TreeSHAP-IQ on state-of-the-art tree ensembles and explore interactions on well-established benchmark datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

iPDP: On Partial Dependence Plots in Dynamic Modeling Scenarios

Post-hoc explanation techniques such as the well-established partial dependence plot (PDP), which investigates feature dependencies, are used in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to understand black-box machine learning models. While many real-world applications require dynamic models that constantly adapt over time and react to changes in the underlying distribution, XAI, so far, has primarily considered static learning environments, where models are trained in a batch mode and remain unchanged. We thus propose a novel model-agnostic XAI framework called incremental PDP (iPDP) that extends on the PDP to extract time-dependent feature effects in non-stationary learning environments. We formally analyze iPDP and show that it approximates a time-dependent variant of the PDP that properly reacts to real and virtual concept drift. The time-sensitivity of iPDP is controlled by a single smoothing parameter, which directly corresponds to the variance and the approximation error of iPDP in a static learning environment. We illustrate the efficacy of iPDP by showcasing an example application for drift detection and conducting multiple experiments on real-world and synthetic data sets and streams.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

SHAP-IQ: Unified Approximation of any-order Shapley Interactions

Predominately in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) research, the Shapley value (SV) is applied to determine feature attributions for any black box model. Shapley interaction indices extend the SV to define any-order feature interactions. Defining a unique Shapley interaction index is an open research question and, so far, three definitions have been proposed, which differ by their choice of axioms. Moreover, each definition requires a specific approximation technique. Here, we propose SHAPley Interaction Quantification (SHAP-IQ), an efficient sampling-based approximator to compute Shapley interactions for arbitrary cardinal interaction indices (CII), i.e. interaction indices that satisfy the linearity, symmetry and dummy axiom. SHAP-IQ is based on a novel representation and, in contrast to existing methods, we provide theoretical guarantees for its approximation quality, as well as estimates for the variance of the point estimates. For the special case of SV, our approach reveals a novel representation of the SV and corresponds to Unbiased KernelSHAP with a greatly simplified calculation. We illustrate the computational efficiency and effectiveness by explaining language, image classification and high-dimensional synthetic models.

cs.LG↗