arXiv subjects

Maximilian Roithner

Publications and source records attributed to Maximilian Roithner.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Planning for climate neutrality in the Nordic power sector: Insights from a non-harmonised comparison of eight energy system models

The Nordic countries have adopted ambitious climate targets that require far-reaching power-sector transformations, making energy system modelling an important input to long-term planning. However, model-based evidence is produced using different model structures, assumptions, scopes, and scenario designs. This paper examines what can be learned from comparing such independently developed scenarios by assessing Nordic power-sector climate-neutrality pathways across eight structurally diverse energy system models. The comparison covers Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden for 2030, 2040, and 2050, and focuses on electricity demand, generation capacity, CCS deployment, and power-sector CO2 emissions. Inputs are not harmonised; instead, outputs are compared using a common reporting basis reflecting how modelling evidence is encountered in applied policy contexts. The results show broad agreement on the direction of transition. Wind power, mainly onshore but complemented by offshore wind in some countries, is the clearest cross-model finding and forms the backbone of the Nordic power system by 2050. At the same time, installed capacities, CCS deployment, nuclear outcomes, and emissions levels vary substantially. These differences are interpreted considering renewable-resource potentials, technology availability, policy constraints, sectoral and geographical scope, emissions-accounting boundaries, and different implementations of climate-neutrality targets. The study shows that non-harmonised model comparisons can support policy analysis by identifying where models point in the same direction, such as wind expansion, and where outcomes depend more strongly on model and scenario assumptions, such as CCS, nuclear, and net-negative emissions. For policy use, the findings underline the need to report model scope, technology representation, policy constraints, and emissions-accounting boundaries..

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Engaging young people for a more inclusive national energy transition: A participatory modelling framework

Participatory research in energy system modelling can generate bottom-up knowledge to explore co-designed future net-zero energy system scenarios. However, it often fails to facilitate collective learning, explore explicitly informed perspectives, and frequently ignores underrepresented groups like youth, among whom distrust about the energy transformation process is growing. By modifying a national electricity system model to reflect young people's socio-techno-environmental insights gathered through school workshops, this study presents a framework for envisioning future net-zero power systems in Norway. Given pupil priorities regarding certain power system aspects and their cumulative impact, substantial shifts occur in national renewable capacity potentials (approximately plus or minus 50%), system costs (-7% to +25%), technology mixes (notably onshore wind from 40% to 0%), transmission capacities (near doubling), and regional equity assessments. We find that costly youth-driven system designs do not necessarily guarantee equitable systems. Although applied to young people in Norway, the proposed workshop-informed modelling framework serves as a tool to meaningfully engage diverse groups and capture their perspectives, thereby further democratising energy system planning. The approach is expected to help address social acceptance challenges through enhanced understanding of trade-offs in the energy transformation process.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Driving towards net-zero: The impact of electric vehicle flexibility participation on a future Norwegian electricity system

Electric vehicle batteries have a proven flexibility potential which could serve as an alternative to conventional electricity storage solutions. EV batteries could support the balancing of supply and demand and the integration of variable renewable energy into the electricity system. The flexibility potential from electric vehicles, in distinction to conventional battery storage, depends on the vehicle user's willingness and opportunity to make their vehicle available for flexibility. This rate of participation is often not considered in studies, despite the impact electric vehicle flexibility could have on the electricity system. This work presents a modelling study of the Norwegian electricity system, demonstrating how a future net-zero electricity system can benefit from electric vehicles in terms of integrating renewables and balancing supply and demand, while considering the rate of participation. Our findings show electric vehicles' potential to eliminate the need for stationary battery storage with just 50% participation in vehicle-to-grid. We find that the flexibility of electric vehicles contributes to relative reductions in the total cost of the electricity system by almost 4% and 15% assuming 100% participation in flexible charging and vehicle-to-grid, respectively.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Exploring near-optimal energy systems with stakeholders: a novel approach for participatory modelling

Involving people in energy systems planning can increase the legitimacy and socio-political feasibility of energy transitions. Participatory research in energy modelling offers the opportunity to engage with stakeholders in a comprehensive way, but is limited by how results can be generated and presented without imposing assumptions and discrete scenarios on the participants. To this end, we present a methodology and a framework, based on near-optimal modelling results, that can incorporate stakeholders in a holistic and engaging way. We confront stakeholders with a continuum of modelling-based energy system designs via an interactive interface allowing them to choose essentially any combination of components that meet the system requirements. Together with information on the implications of different technologies, it is possible to assess how participants prioritise different aspects in energy systems planning while also facilitating learning in an engaging and stimulating way. We showcase the methodology for the remote Arctic settlement of Longyearbyen and illustrate how participants deviate consistently from the cost optimum. At the same time, they manage to balance different priorities such as emissions, costs, and system vulnerability leading to a better understanding of the complexity and intertwined nature of decisions.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Balancing Act: The Cost of Wind Restrictions in Norway's Electricity Transition

To meet its commitments under the Paris Agreement and reduce its dependency on energy imports, the pace, and scale of renewable energy deployment across Europe must increase dramatically over the next decade. Such a steep change in the net-zero transition will inevitably necessitate trade-offs with other societal priorities. Here we investigate a case study focused on the opposition towards onshore wind and the compromises that may need to be made to deliver its plans for deep electrification. Using an electricity system model, we explore the implications of key social and environmental dimensions shaping the future deployment of onshore wind on the costs and design of electricity systems for Norway in 2030. We find that under restrictions that allow for almost no additional onshore wind, demand can not be met and load has to be shed. Yet, when reducing the restrictions on onshore wind or allowing for in-country transmission expansion, feasible system designs at a small fraction of that cost can be found. To meet the net-zero targets, compromises will need to be made on either wind power deployment, transmission expansion, non-electrification of industry or demand reduction.

physics.soc-ph↗