arXiv subjects

Md Azharul Islam

Publications and source records attributed to Md Azharul Islam.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Evidence-Guided Neural Architecture Selection under Uncertainty for Subject-Specific Blood Glucose Forecasting

Reliable neural architecture selection is an open challenge in time-series forecasting under limited, noisy, and heterogeneous data, where standard heuristic architecture design and validation approaches fail to ensure accurate and reliable prediction and generalization. We propose EVIDENT (EVidence-based IDEntification of Neural archiTectures), a framework for architecture selection that integrates Bayesian training, evidence-based ranking, and task-specific validation under uncertainty. The framework explores the candidate architecture pool and identifies the lowest-capacity model that satisfies a prescribed validation criterion. We demonstrate this method using temporal convolutional networks (TCNs) for individualized blood glucose forecasting in type 1 diabetes patients. The results show that EVIDENT systematically rejects both under- and over-parameterized TCN architectures on population-level diabetes data, while identifying models that generalize reliably to unseen patients. When multiple architectures are competitive, the framework further supports plausibility-weighted ensemble predictions that enhance predictive performance. Compared with a random-search baseline, EVIDENT identified smaller architectures with more consistent forecasting performance on unseen patients. These findings establish EVIDENT as a strategy to neural architecture discovery, enabling reliable model selection for high-consequence forecasting in data-limited and heterogeneous settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Stochastic Deep Learning Surrogate Models for Uncertainty Propagation in Microstructure-Properties of Ceramic Aerogels

This study presents an integrated computational framework that, given synthesis parameters, predicts the resulting microstructural morphology and mechanical response of ceramic aerogel porous materials by combining physics-based simulations with deep learning surrogate models. Lattice Boltzmann simulations are employed to model microstructure formation during material synthesis process, while a finite element model is used to compute the corresponding mechanical properties. To overcome the prohibitive computational demands of repeated physics-based simulations required for characterizing the impact of microstructure randomness on mechanical properties, surrogate models are developed using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for both microstructure generation and microstructure-property mapping. CNN training is formulated as a Bayesian inference problem to enable uncertainty quantification and provide confidence estimates in surrogate model predictions, under limited training data furnished by physics-based simulations. Numerical results demonstrate that the microstructure surrogate model effectively generates microstructural images consistent with the morphology of training data across larger domains. The Bayesian CNN surrogate accurately predicts strain energy for in-distribution microstructures and its generalization capability to interpolated morphologies are further investigated. Finally, the surrogate models are employed for efficient uncertainty propagation, quantifying the influence of microstructural variability on macroscopic mechanical property.

cs.CE↗