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Megan Jones

Publications and source records attributed to Megan Jones.

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Asymptotic Distribution of Robust Effect Size Index

The Robust Effect Size Index (RESI) is a recently proposed standardized effect size to quantify association strength across models. However, its confidence interval construction has relied on computationally intensive bootstrap procedures. We establish a general theorem for the asymptotic distribution of the RESI using a Taylor expansion that accommodates a broad class of models. Simulations under various linear and logistic regression settings show that RESI and its CI have smaller bias and more reliable coverage than commonly used effect sizes such as Cohen's d and f. Combining with robust covariance estimation yields valid inference under model misspecification. We use the methods to investigate associations of depression and behavioral problems with sex and diagnosis in Autism spectrum disorders, and demonstrate that the asymptotic approach achieves up to a 50-fold speedup over the bootstrap. Our work provides a scalable and reliable alternative to bootstrap inference, greatly enhancing the applicability of RESI to high-dimensional studies.

stat.ME

Inferring Mbh-Mbulge Evolution from the Gravitational Wave Background

We test the impact of an evolving supermassive black hole (SMBH) mass scaling relation (Mbh-Mbulge) on the predictions for the gravitational wave background (GWB). The observed GWB amplitude is 2-3 times higher than predicted by astrophysically informed models which suggests the need to revise the assumptions in those models. We compare a semi-analytic model's ability to reproduce the observed GWB spectrum with a static versus evolving-amplitude Mbh-Mbulge relation. We additionally consider the influence of the choice of galaxy stellar mass function on the modeled GWB spectra. Our models are able to reproduce the GWB amplitude with either a large number density of massive galaxies or a positively evolving Mbh-Mbulge amplitude (i.e., the Mbh / Mbulge ratio was higher in the past). If we assume that the Mbh-Mbulge amplitude does not evolve, our models require a galaxy stellar mass function that implies an undetected population of massive galaxies (Mstellar > 10^11 Msun at z > 1). When the Mbh-Mbulge amplitude is allowed to evolve, we can model the GWB spectrum with all fiducial values and an Mbh-Mbulge amplitude that evolves as alpha(z) = alpha_0 (1 + z)^(1.04 +/- 0.5).

astro-ph.HE

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Bayesian Limits on Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Evidence for a low-frequency stochastic gravitational wave background has recently been reported based on analyses of pulsar timing array data. The most likely source of such a background is a population of supermassive black hole binaries, the loudest of which may be individually detected in these datasets. Here we present the search for individual supermassive black hole binaries in the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. We introduce several new techniques, which enhance the efficiency and modeling accuracy of the analysis. The search uncovered weak evidence for two candidate signals, one with a gravitational-wave frequency of $\sim$4 nHz, and another at $\sim$170 nHz. The significance of the low-frequency candidate was greatly diminished when Hellings-Downs correlations were included in the background model. The high-frequency candidate was discounted due to the lack of a plausible host galaxy, the unlikely astrophysical prior odds of finding such a source, and since most of its support comes from a single pulsar with a commensurate binary period. Finding no compelling evidence for signals from individual binary systems, we place upper limits on the strain amplitude of gravitational waves emitted by such systems.

astro-ph.HE

RESI: An R Package for Robust Effect Sizes

Effect size indices are useful parameters that quantify the strength of association and are unaffected by sample size. There are many available effect size parameters and estimators, but it is difficult to compare effect sizes across studies as most are defined for a specific type of population parameter. We recently introduced a new Robust Effect Size Index (RESI) and confidence interval, which is advantageous because it is not model-specific. Here we present the RESI R package, which makes it easy to report the RESI and its confidence interval for many different model classes, with a consistent interpretation across parameters and model types. The package produces coefficient, ANOVA tables, and overall Wald tests for model inputs, appending the RESI estimate and confidence interval to each. The package also includes functions for visualization and conversions to and from other effect size measures. For illustration, we analyze and interpret three different model types.

stat.CO

Twelve Decades: Probing the Interstellar Medium from kiloparsec to sub-AU scales

After a decade of great progress in understanding gas flow into, out of, and through the Milky Way, we are poised to merge observations with simulations to build a comprehensive picture of the multi-scale magnetized interstellar medium (ISM). These insights will also be crucial to four bold initiatives in the 2020s: detecting nanohertz gravitational waves with pulsar timing arrays (PTAs), decoding fast radio bursts (FRBs), cosmic B-mode detection, and imaging the Milky Way's black hole with the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT).

astro-ph.GA