arXiv subjects

Megan Mansfield

Publications and source records attributed to Megan Mansfield.

45 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Identifying Candidate Atmospheres on Rocky M dwarf Planets via Eclipse Photometry

Most rocky planets in the galaxy orbit a cool host star, and there is large uncertainty among theoretical models whether these planets can retain an atmosphere. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) might be able to settle this question empirically, but most proposals for doing so require large observational effort because they are based on spectroscopy. Here we show that infrared photometry of secondary eclipses could quickly identify "candidate" atmospheres, by searching for rocky planets with atmospheres thick enough that atmospheric heat transport noticeably reduces their dayside thermal emission compared to that of a bare rock. For a planet amenable to atmospheric follow-up, we find that JWST should be able to confidently detect the heat redistribution signal of an O(1) bar atmosphere with one to two eclipses. One to two eclipses is generally much less than the effort needed to infer an atmosphere via transmission or emission spectroscopy. Candidate atmospheres can be further validated via follow-up spectroscopy or phase curves. In addition, because this technique is fast it could enable a first atmospheric survey of rocky exoplanets with JWST. We estimate that the TESS mission will find ~100 planets that are too hot to be habitable but that can be quickly probed via eclipse photometry. Knowing whether hot, rocky planets around M dwarfs have atmospheres is important not only for understanding the evolution of uninhabitable worlds: if atmospheres are common on hot planets, then cooler, potentially habitable planets around M dwarfs are also likely to have atmospheres.

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arXiv2019

A Statistical Comparative Planetology Approach to Maximize the Scientific Return of Future Exoplanet Characterization Efforts

Provided that sufficient resources are deployed, we can look forward to an extraordinary future in which we will characterize potentially habitable planets. Until now, we have had to base interpretations of observations on habitability hypotheses that have remained untested. To test these theories observationally, we propose a statistical comparative planetology approach to questions of planetary habitability. The key objective of this approach will be to make quick and cheap measurements of critical planetary characteristics on a large sample of exoplanets, exploiting statistical marginalization to answer broad habitability questions. This relaxes the requirement of obtaining multiple types of data for a given planet, as it allows us to test a given hypothesis from only one type of measurement using the power of an ensemble. This approach contrasts with a "systems science" approach, where a few planets would be extensively studied with many types of measurements. A systems science approach is associated with a number of difficulties which may limit overall scientific return, including: the limited spectral coverage and noise of instruments, the diversity of exoplanets, and the extensive list of potential false negatives and false positives. A statistical approach could also be complementary to a systems science framework by providing context to interpret extensive measurements on planets of particular interest. We strongly recommend future missions with a focus on exoplanet characterization, and with the capability to study large numbers of planets in a homogenous way, rather than exclusively small, intense studies directed at a small sample of planets.

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arXiv2018

Detection of Helium in the Atmosphere of the Exo-Neptune HAT-P-11b

The helium absorption triplet at a wavelength of 10,833 Å has been proposed as a way to probe the escaping atmospheres of exoplanets. Recently this feature was detected for the first time using Hubble Space Telescope (HST) WFC3 observations of the hot Jupiter WASP-107b. We use similar HST/WFC3 observations to detect helium in the atmosphere of the hot Neptune HAT-P-11b at the $4σ$ confidence level. We compare our observations to a grid of 1D models of hydrodynamic escape to constrain the thermospheric temperatures and mass loss rate. We find that our data are best fit by models with high mass loss rates of $\dot{M} \approx 10^{9}$ - $10^{11}$ g s$^{-1}$. Although we do not detect the planetary wind directly, our data are consistent with the prediction that HAT-P-11b is experiencing hydrodynamic atmospheric escape. Nevertheless, the mass loss rate is low enough that the planet has only lost up to a few percent of its mass over its history, leaving its bulk composition largely unaffected. This matches the expectation from population statistics, which indicate that close-in planets with radii greater than 2 R$_{\oplus}$ form and retain H/He-dominated atmospheres. We also confirm the independent detection of helium in HAT-P-11b obtained with the CARMENES instrument, making this the first exoplanet with the detection of the same signature of photoevaporation from both ground- and space-based facilities.

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arXiv2018

A Framework for Prioritizing the TESS Planetary Candidates Most Amenable to Atmospheric Characterization

A key legacy of the recently launched TESS mission will be to provide the astronomical community with many of the best transiting exoplanet targets for atmospheric characterization. However, time is of the essence to take full advantage of this opportunity. JWST, although delayed, will still complete its nominal five year mission on a timeline that motivates rapid identification, confirmation, and mass measurement of the top atmospheric characterization targets from TESS. Beyond JWST, future dedicated missions for atmospheric studies such as ARIEL require the discovery and confirmation of several hundred additional sub-Jovian size planets (R_p < 10 R_Earth) orbiting bright stars, beyond those known today, to ensure a successful statistical census of exoplanet atmospheres. Ground-based ELTs will also contribute to surveying the atmospheres of the transiting planets discovered by TESS. Here we present a set of two straightforward analytic metrics, quantifying the expected signal-to-noise in transmission and thermal emission spectroscopy for a given planet, that will allow the top atmospheric characterization targets to be readily identified among the TESS planet candidates. Targets that meet our proposed threshold values for these metrics would be encouraged for rapid follow-up and confirmation via radial velocity mass measurements. Based on the catalog of simulated TESS detections by Sullivan et al. (2015), we determine appropriate cutoff values of the metrics, such that the TESS mission will ultimately yield a sample of $\sim300$ high-quality atmospheric characterization targets across a range of planet size bins, extending down to Earth-size, potentially habitable worlds.

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arXiv2018

The Transiting Exoplanet Community Early Release Science Program for JWST

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) presents the opportunity to transform our understanding of planets and the origins of life by revealing the atmospheric compositions, structures, and dynamics of transiting exoplanets in unprecedented detail. However, the high-precision, time-series observations required for such investigations have unique technical challenges, and prior experience with other facilities indicates that there will be a steep learning curve when JWST becomes operational. In this paper we describe the science objectives and detailed plans of the Transiting Exoplanet Community Early Release Science (ERS) Program, which is a recently approved program for JWST observations early in Cycle 1. The goal of this project, for which the obtained data will have no exclusive access period, is to accelerate the acquisition and diffusion of technical expertise for transiting exoplanet observations with JWST, while also providing a compelling set of representative datasets that will enable immediate scientific breakthroughs. The Transiting Exoplanet Community ERS Program will exercise the time-series modes of all four JWST instruments that have been identified as the consensus highest priorities, observe the full suite of transiting planet characterization geometries (transits, eclipses, and phase curves), and target planets with host stars that span an illustrative range of brightnesses. The observations in this program were defined through an inclusive and transparent process that had participation from JWST instrument experts and international leaders in transiting exoplanet studies. Community engagement in the project will be centered on a two-phase Data Challenge that culminates with the delivery of planetary spectra, time-series instrument performance reports, and open-source data analysis toolkits in time to inform the agenda for Cycle 2 of the JWST mission.

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arXiv2018

From thermal dissociation to condensation in the atmospheres of ultra hot Jupiters: WASP-121b in context

A new class of exoplanets has emerged: the ultra hot Jupiters, the hottest close-in gas giants. Most of them have weaker than expected spectral features in the $1.1-1.7μm$ bandpass probed by HST/WFC3 but stronger spectral features at longer wavelengths probed by Spitzer. This led previous authors to puzzling conclusions about the thermal structures and chemical abundances of these planets. Using the SPARC/MITgcm, we investigate how thermal dissociation, ionization, H$^-$ opacity and clouds shape the thermal structures and spectral properties of ultra hot Jupiters with a special focus on WASP-121b. We expand our findings to the whole population of ultra hot Jupiters through analytical quantification of the thermal dissociation and its influence on the strength of spectral features. We predict that most molecules are thermally dissociated and alkalies are ionized in the dayside photospheres of ultra hot Jupiters. This includes H$_{\rm 2}$O, TiO, VO, and H$_{\rm 2}$ but not CO, which has a stronger molecular bond. The vertical molecular gradient created by the dissociation significantly weakens the spectral features from water while the $4.5μm$ CO feature remain unchanged. The water band in the HST/WFC3 bandpass is further weakened by H$^-$ continuum opacity. Molecules are expected to recombine before reaching the limb, leading to order of magnitude variations of the chemical composition and cloud coverage between the limb and the dayside. Overall, molecular dissociation provides a qualitative understanding of the lack of strong spectral feature of water in the $1-2μm$ bandpass observed in most ultra hot Jupiters. Quantitatively, however, our model does not provide a satisfactory match to the WASP-121b emission spectrum. Together with WASP-33b and Kepler-33Ab, they seem the outliers among the population of ultra hot Jupiters in need of a more thorough understanding.

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arXiv2018

A HST/WFC3 Thermal Emission Spectrum of the Hot Jupiter HAT-P-7b

Secondary eclipse observations of several of the hottest hot Jupiters show featureless, blackbody-like spectra or molecular emission features, which are consistent with thermal inversions being present in those atmospheres. Theory predicts a transition between warmer atmospheres with thermal inversions and cooler atmospheres without inversions, but the exact transition point is unknown. In order to further investigate this issue, we observed two secondary eclipses of the hot Jupiter HAT-P-7b with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) WFC3 instrument and combined these data with previous Spitzer and Kepler secondary eclipse observations. The HST and Spitzer data can be well fit by a blackbody with $T=2692 \pm 14$ K, and the Kepler data point constrains the geometric albedo to $A_{g}=0.077 \pm 0.006$. We modeled these data with a 3D GCM and 1D self-consistent forward models. The 1D models indicate that the atmosphere has a thermal inversion, weak heat redistribution, and water dissociation that limits the range of pressures probed. This result suggests that WFC3 observations of HAT-P-7b and possibly some other ultra-hot Jupiters appear blackbody-like because they probe a region near the tropopause where the atmospheric temperature changes slowly with pressure. Additionally, the 1D models constrain the atmospheric metallicity ($[\text{M/H}]=-0.87^{+0.38}_{-0.34}$) and the carbon-to-oxygen ratio (C/O $<1$ at 99 % confidence). The solar composition 3D GCM matches the Spitzer data but generally underpredicts the flux in the WFC3 bandpass and cannot reproduce its featureless shape. This discrepancy could be explained by high atmospheric drag or nightside clouds, and may be better understood through further observation with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST).

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arXiv2018

H- Opacity and Water Dissociation in the Dayside Atmosphere of the Very Hot Gas Giant WASP-18 b

We present one of the most precise emission spectra of an exoplanet observed so far. We combine five secondary eclipses of the hot Jupiter WASP-18 b (Tday=2900K) that we secured between 1.1 and 1.7 micron with the WFC3 instrument aboard the Hubble Space Telescope. Our extracted spectrum (S/N=50, R=40) does not exhibit clearly identifiable molecular features but is poorly matched by a blackbody spectrum. We complement this data with previously published Spitzer/IRAC observations of this target and interpret the combined spectrum by computing a grid of self-consistent, 1D forward models, varying the composition and energy budget. At these high temperatures, we find there are important contributions to the overall opacity from H- ions, as well as the removal of major molecules by thermal dissociation (including water), and thermal ionization of metals. These effects were omitted in previous spectral retrievals for very hot gas giants, and we argue that they must be included to properly interpret the spectra of these objects. We infer a new metallicity and C/O ratio for WASP-18 b, and find them well constrained to be solar ([M/H]=-0.01 (0.35), C/O<0.85 at 3 sigma confidence level), unlike previous work but in line with expectations for giant planets. The best fitting self-consistent temperature-pressure profiles are inverted, resulting in an emission feature at 4.5 micron seen in the Spitzer photometry. These results further strengthen the evidence that the family of very hot gas giant exoplanets commonly exhibit thermal inversions.

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arXiv2018

Effect of Mars Atmospheric Loss on Snow Melt Potential in a 3.5-Gyr Mars Climate Evolution Model

Post-Noachian Martian paleochannels indicate the existence of liquid water on the surface of Mars after about 3.5 Gya (Irwin et al., 2015; Palucis et al., 2016). In order to explore the effects of variations in CO$_{2}$ partial pressure and obliquity on the possibility of surface water, we created a zero-dimensional surface energy balance model. We combine this model with physically consistent orbital histories to track conditions over the last 3.5 Gyr of Martian history. We find that melting is allowed for atmospheric pressures corresponding to exponential loss rates of $dP/dt \propto t^{-3.73}$ or faster, but this rate is within $0.5 σ$ of the rate calculated from initial measurements made by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission, if we assume all the escaping oxygen measured by MAVEN comes from atmospheric CO$_{2}$ (Lillis et al., 2017; Tu et al., 2015). Melting at this loss rate matches selected key geologic constraints on the formation of Hesperian river networks, assuming optimal melt conditions during the warmest part of each Mars year (Irwin et al., 2015; Stopar et al., 2006; Kite et al., 2017a,b). The atmospheric pressure has a larger effect on the surface energy than changes in Mars's mean obliquity. These results show that initial measurements of atmosphere loss by MAVEN are consistent with atmospheric loss being the dominant process that switched Mars from a melt-permitting to a melt-absent climate (Jakosky et al., 2017), but non-CO$_{2}$ warming will be required if $<2$ Gya paleochannels are confirmed, or if most of the escaping oxygen measured by MAVEN comes from H$_{2}$O.

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