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Mehrnaz Anvari

Publications and source records attributed to Mehrnaz Anvari.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

Accelerating gas-network feasibility screening with a physics-informed graph neural network surrogate

Large-scale gas-network scenario evaluation is a computational bottleneck in integrated energy-system planning, particularly when gas infrastructure interacts with power, heat, hydrogen, and sector-coupling pathways. Conventional nonlinear hydraulic solvers provide reliable feasibility assessment but are costly for stochastic screening, whereas unconstrained learning-based surrogates may produce hydraulically infeasible states. This study develops a physics-informed graph neural network surrogate for steady-state gas-network simulation and feasibility screening. The model uses an edge-centric architecture to predict pipe-level squared-pressure differences and flows. A differentiable projection layer enforces nodal mass conservation on predicted flows, while a Laplacian reconstruction maps edge pressure differences to topologically consistent nodal pressures. The framework is evaluated on GasLib-134, GasLib-135, and GasLib-582 using stochastically generated operating scenarios. On the meshed 582-node benchmark trained with 5000 scenarios, the surrogate achieves a pressure mean absolute error of 1.05~bar, corresponding to 1.3\% of the realized pressure range, with $R^2 = 0.981$. Projected-flow predictions reach $R^2 = 0.972$, and mass-balance residuals are reduced to numerical precision, on the order of $10^{-5}$--$10^{-4}$~Nm$^3$/s. Compared with the MYNTS reference solver, inference is reduced from seconds to milliseconds, with the largest benchmark evaluated in less than 40~ms. Loadability and out-of-distribution stress-test evaluations demonstrate robust feasibility screening under high-load conditions, while strongly localized demand concentrations are identified as cases requiring solver-based verification near feasibility limits. The framework provides a physically constrained planning accelerator for high-volume scenario screening and prioritization.

cs.CE

From carbon management strategies to implementation: Modeling and physical simulation of CO2 pipeline infrastructure -- a case study for Germany

Carbon capture and storage or utilization (CCUS) will play an important role to achieve climate neutrality in many economies. Pipelines are widely regarded as the most efficient means of CO2 transport; however, they are currently non-existent. Policy-makers and companies need to develop large-scale infrastructure under substantial uncertainty. Methods and analyses are needed to support pipeline planning and strategy development. This paper presents an integrated method for designing CO2 pipeline networks by combining energy system scenarios with physical network simulation. Using Germany as a case study in a projection to the year 2045, we derive spatially highly resolved CO2 balances to develop a dense-phase CO2 pipeline topology that follows existing gas pipeline corridors. The analyzed system includes existing sites for cement and lime production, waste incineration, carbon users, four coastal CO2 hubs, and border crossing points. We then apply the multiphysical network simulator MYNTS to assess the technical feasibility of this network. We determine pipeline diameters, pump locations, and operating conditions that ensure stable dense-phase transport. The method explicitly accounts for elevation and possible impurities.The results indicate that a system of about 7000 km pipeline length and a mixed normed diameter of DN700 on main corridors and of DN500/DN400 on branches presents a feasible solution to connect most sites. Investment costs for the optimized pipeline system are calculated to be about 17 billion Euros. The method provides a reproducible framework and is transferable to other countries and to European scope.

math.OC

Adaptive Robust Optimization for European Electricity System Planning Considering Regional Dunkelflaute Events

The expansion of wind and solar power is driving the European energy system transformation, thereby also driving our reliance on this weather-dependent resources. Integrating renewable scarcity events into long-term planning has therefore become essential. This study demonstrates how worst-case regional renewable scarcity events - such as the Dunkelflaute, prolonged periods of low wind and solar availability - can be incorporated endogenously into the planning of a weather-robust, interconnected energy system. We develop a capacity expansion model for a fully decarbonized European electricity system using an adaptive robust optimization framework which incorporates multiple extreme weather realizations within a single optimization run. Results show that system costs rise nonlinearly with the geographic extent of these events: a single worst-case regional disruption increases costs by 9%, but broader disruptions across multiple regions lead to much sharper increases, up to 51%. As Dunkelflaute conditions extend across most of Europe, additional cost impacts level off, with a maximum increase of 71%. The optimal technology mix evolves with the severity of weather stress: while renewables, batteries, and interregional transmission are sufficient to manage localized events, large-scale disruptions require long-term hydrogen storage and load shedding to maintain system resilience. Central European regions, especially Germany and France, emerge as systemic bottlenecks, while peripheral regions bear the cost of compensatory overbuilding. These findings underscore the need for a coordinated European policy strategy that goes beyond national planning to support cross-border infrastructure investment, scale up flexible technologies such as long-duration storage, and promote a geographically balanced deployment of renewables to mitigate systemic risks associated with Dunkelflaute events.

econ.GN

Finite size effect in Kuramoto oscillators with inertia on simplicial complex

We investigate the finite-size effects on the dynamical evolution of the Kuramoto model with inertia coupled through triadic interactions. Our findings reveal that fluctuations resulting from the finite size drive the system toward a synchronized state at finite coupling, which contrasts with the analytical predictions {in thermodynamic limit} made for the same system. Building on the analytical calculations performed at the thermodynamic limit, we identify the origin of the synchronization transition that arises because of the finite size. We discover a power-law relationship between the network size and the critical coupling at which the first-order transition to synchronization occurs. Additionally, as inertia increases, there is a significant shift in the critical coupling toward higher values, indicating that inertia counteracts the effects caused by finite size.

nlin.AO

Resonant Solitary States in Complex Networks

Partially synchronized solitary states occur frequently when a synchronized system of networked oscillators is perturbed locally. Several asymptotic states of different frequencies can coexist at the same node. Here, we reveal the mechanism behind this multistability: additional solitary frequencies arise from the coupling between network modes and the solitary oscillator's frequency, leading to significant energy transfer. This can cause the solitary node's frequency to resonate with a Laplacian eigenvalue. We analyze which network structures enable this resonance and explain longstanding numerical observations. Another solitary state is characterized by the effective decoupling of the synchronized network and the solitary node at the natural frequency. Our framework unifies the description of solitary states near and far from resonance, allowing to predict the behavior of complex networks.

nlin.AO

Non-standard power grid frequency statistics in Asia, Australia, and Europe

The power-grid frequency reflects the balance between electricity supply and demand. Measuring the frequency and its variations allows monitoring of the power balance in the system and, thus, the grid stability. In addition, gaining insight into the characteristics of frequency variations and defining precise evaluation metrics for these variations enables accurate assessment of the performance of forecasts and synthetic models of the power-grid frequency. Previous work was limited to a few geographical regions and did not quantify the observed effects. In this contribution, we analyze and quantify the statistical and stochastic properties of self-recorded power-grid frequency data from various synchronous areas in Asia, Australia, and Europe at a resolution of one second. Revealing non-standard statistics of both empirical and synthetic frequency data, we effectively constrain the space of possible (stochastic) power-grid frequency models and share a range of analysis tools to benchmark any model or characterize empirical data. Furthermore, we emphasize the need to analyze data from a large range of synchronous areas to obtain generally applicable models.

eess.SY

A Framework for Synthetic Power System Dynamics

The paper is published in Chaos. Please refer to the Chaos version from now on. Anna B\"uttner, Anton Plietzsch, Mehrnaz Anvari, Frank Hellmann; A framework for synthetic power system dynamics. Chaos 1 August 2023; 33 (8): 083120. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0155971 Information on power grids is confidential and thus real data is often inaccessible. This necessitates the use of synthetic power grid models in research. So far the models used, for example, in machine learning had to be very simple and homogeneous to produce large ensembles of robust grids. We present a modular framework to generate synthetic power grids that considers the heterogeneity of real power grid dynamics but remains simple and tractable. This enables the generation of large sets of synthetic grids for a wide range of applications. We also include the major drivers of fluctuations on short-time scales. The synthetic grids generated are robust and show good synchronization under all evaluated scenarios, as should be expected for realistic power grids. This opens the door to future research that studies grids under severe stress due to extreme events which could lead to destabilization and black-outs. A software package that includes an efficient Julia implementation of the framework is released as a companion to the paper.

nlin.AO

Perspectives on adaptive dynamical systems

Adaptivity is a dynamical feature that is omnipresent in nature, socio-economics, and technology. For example, adaptive couplings appear in various real-world systems like the power grid, social, and neural networks, and they form the backbone of closed-loop control strategies and machine learning algorithms. In this article, we provide an interdisciplinary perspective on adaptive systems. We reflect on the notion and terminology of adaptivity in different disciplines and discuss which role adaptivity plays for various fields. We highlight common open challenges, and give perspectives on future research directions, looking to inspire interdisciplinary approaches.

nlin.AO

Protecting the Texas power grid from tropical cyclones: Increasing resilience by protecting critical lines

The Texan electric network in the Gulf Coast of the United States is frequently hit by Tropical Cyclones (TC) causing widespread power outages, a risk that is expected to substantially increase under global warming. Here, we introduce a new approach of combining a probabilistic line fragility model with a network model of the Texas grid to simulate the temporal evolution of wind-induced failures of transmission lines and the resulting cascading power outages from seven major historical hurricanes. The approach allows reproducing observed supply failures. In addition, compared to a static approach, it provides a significant advantage in identifying critical lines whose failure can trigger large supply shortages. We show that protecting only 1% of total lines can reduce the likelihood of the most destructive type of outages by a factor of between 5 and 20. The proposed modelling approach could represent a tool so far missing to effectively strengthen the power grids against future hurricane risks even under limited knowledge.

physics.soc-ph

Moving the epidemic tipping point through topologically targeted social distancing

The epidemic threshold of a social system is the ratio of infection and recovery rate above which a disease spreading in it becomes an epidemic. In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions (i.e. vaccines), the only way to control a given disease is to move this threshold by non-pharmaceutical interventions like social distancing, past the epidemic threshold corresponding to the disease, thereby tipping the system from epidemic into a non-epidemic regime. Modeling the disease as a spreading process on a social graph, social distancing can be modeled by removing some of the graphs links. It has been conjectured that the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of the resulting graph corresponds to the systems epidemic threshold. Here we use a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to study those link removals that do well at reducing the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. The MCMC method generates samples from the relative canonical network ensemble with a defined expectation value of $λ_{max}$. We call this the "well-controlling network ensemble" (WCNE) and compare its structure to randomly thinned networks with the same link density. We observe that networks in the WCNE tend to be more homogeneous in the degree distribution and use this insight to define two ad-hoc removal strategies, which also substantially reduce the largest eigenvalue. A targeted removal of 80\% of links can be as effective as a random removal of 90\%, leaving individuals with twice as many contacts.

physics.soc-ph

The Risk of Cascading Failures in Electrical Grids Triggered by Extreme Weather Events

One of the serious threats related to climate change is an increase in the number and severity of extreme weather events. A prominent example are hurricanes, which result from rising coastal temperatures. Such extreme weather events can cause extensive damages in infrastructure systems and, potentially, destroy components in electricity transmission networks, which in turn can lead to major blackouts. In our recent work, we study the risk of hurricane-induced cascading failures in power systems of the U.S. East Coast using historical wind field data sets. For this purpose, we model the destruction of overhead transmission lines during hurricanes, where each failing line causes a rerouting of power flow in the system. New power flows can overload additional lines, which are then automatically deactivated and thereby cause another rerouting of power flow and so on. Ultimately, a cascade of failures can unfold that can black out large parts of the power system.

physics.soc-ph

Data-Driven Load Profiles and the Dynamics of Residential Electric PowerConsumption

The dynamics of power consumption constitutes an essential building block for planning and operating energy systems based on renewable energy supply. Whereas variations in the dynamics of renewable energy generation are reasonably well studied, a deeper understanding of short and long term variations in consumption dynamics is still missing. Here, we analyse highly resolved residential electricity consumption data of Austrian and German households and propose a generally applicable methodology for extracting both the average demand profiles and the demand fluctuations purely from time series data. The analysis reveals that demand fluctuations of individual households are skewed and consistently highly intermittent. We introduce a stochastic model to quantitatively capture such real-world fluctuations. The analysis indicates in how far the broadly used standard load profile (SLP) may be is insufficient to describe the key characteristics observed. These results offer a better understanding of demand dynamics, in particular its fluctuations, and provide general tools for disentangling mean demand and fluctuations for any given system. The insights on the demand dynamics may support planning and operating future-compliant (micro) grids in maintaining supply-demand balance.

physics.app-ph

Data-driven model of the power-grid frequency dynamics

The energy system is rapidly changing to accommodate the increasing number of renewable generators and the general transition towards a more sustainable future. Simultaneously, business models and market designs evolve, affecting power-grid operation and power-grid frequency. Problems raised by this ongoing transition are increasingly addressed by transdisciplinary research approaches, ranging from purely mathematical modelling to applied case studies. These approaches require a stochastic description of consumer behaviour, fluctuations by renewables, market rules, and how they influence the stability of the power-grid frequency. Here, we introduce an easy-to-use, data-driven, stochastic model for the power-grid frequency and demonstrate how it reproduces key characteristics of the observed statistics of the Continental European and British power grids. We offer executable code and guidelines on how to use the model on any power grid for various mathematical or engineering applications.

nlin.AO

Stochastic properties of the frequency dynamics in real and synthetic power grids

The frequency constitutes a key state variable of electrical power grids. However, as the frequency is subject to several sources of fluctuations, ranging from renewable volatility to demand fluctuations and dispatch, it is strongly dynamic. Yet, the statistical and stochastic properties of the frequency fluctuation dynamics are far from fully understood. Here, we analyse properties of power grid frequency trajectories recorded from different synchronous regions. We highlight the non-Gaussian and still approximately Markovian nature of the frequency statistics. Further, we find that the frequency displays significant fluctuations exactly at the time intervals of regulation and trading, confirming the need of having a regulatory and market design that respects the technical and dynamical constraints in future highly renewable power grids. Finally, employing a recently proposed synthetic model for the frequency dynamics, we combine our statistical and stochastic analysis and analyse in how far dynamically modelled frequency properties match the ones of real trajectories.

nlin.AO