arXiv subjects

Melih Kandemir

Publications and source records attributed to Melih Kandemir.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

EdVAE: Mitigating Codebook Collapse with Evidential Discrete Variational Autoencoders

Codebook collapse is a common problem in training deep generative models with discrete representation spaces like Vector Quantized Variational Autoencoders (VQ-VAEs). We observe that the same problem arises for the alternatively designed discrete variational autoencoders (dVAEs) whose encoder directly learns a distribution over the codebook embeddings to represent the data. We hypothesize that using the softmax function to obtain a probability distribution causes the codebook collapse by assigning overconfident probabilities to the best matching codebook elements. In this paper, we propose a novel way to incorporate evidential deep learning (EDL) instead of softmax to combat the codebook collapse problem of dVAE. We evidentially monitor the significance of attaining the probability distribution over the codebook embeddings, in contrast to softmax usage. Our experiments using various datasets show that our model, called EdVAE, mitigates codebook collapse while improving the reconstruction performance, and enhances the codebook usage compared to dVAE and VQ-VAE based models. Our code can be found at https://github.com/ituvisionlab/EdVAE .

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

PAC-Bayesian Soft Actor-Critic Learning

Actor-critic algorithms address the dual goals of reinforcement learning (RL), policy evaluation and improvement via two separate function approximators. The practicality of this approach comes at the expense of training instability, caused mainly by the destructive effect of the approximation errors of the critic on the actor. We tackle this bottleneck by employing an existing Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) Bayesian bound for the first time as the critic training objective of the Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) algorithm. We further demonstrate that online learning performance improves significantly when a stochastic actor explores multiple futures by critic-guided random search. We observe our resulting algorithm to compare favorably against the state-of-the-art SAC implementation on multiple classical control and locomotion tasks in terms of both sample efficiency and regret.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Continual Learning of Multi-modal Dynamics with External Memory

We study the problem of fitting a model to a dynamical environment when new modes of behavior emerge sequentially. The learning model is aware when a new mode appears, but it cannot access the true modes of individual training sequences. The state-of-the-art continual learning approaches cannot handle this setup, because parameter transfer suffers from catastrophic interference and episodic memory design requires the knowledge of the ground-truth modes of sequences. We devise a novel continual learning method that overcomes both limitations by maintaining a \textit{descriptor} of the mode of an encountered sequence in a neural episodic memory. We employ a Dirichlet Process prior on the attention weights of the memory to foster efficient storage of the mode descriptors. Our method performs continual learning by transferring knowledge across tasks by retrieving the descriptors of similar modes of past tasks to the mode of a current sequence and feeding this descriptor into its transition kernel as control input. We observe the continual learning performance of our method to compare favorably to the mainstream parameter transfer approach.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Calibrating Bayesian UNet++ for Sub-Seasonal Forecasting

Seasonal forecasting is a crucial task when it comes to detecting the extreme heat and colds that occur due to climate change. Confidence in the predictions should be reliable since a small increase in the temperatures in a year has a big impact on the world. Calibration of the neural networks provides a way to ensure our confidence in the predictions. However, calibrating regression models is an under-researched topic, especially in forecasters. We calibrate a UNet++ based architecture, which was shown to outperform physics-based models in temperature anomalies. We show that with a slight trade-off between prediction error and calibration error, it is possible to get more reliable and sharper forecasts. We believe that calibration should be an important part of safety-critical machine learning applications such as weather forecasters.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Demystifying the Myths and Legends of Nonconvex Convergence of SGD

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and its variants are the main workhorses for solving large-scale optimization problems with nonconvex objective functions. Although the convergence of SGDs in the (strongly) convex case is well-understood, their convergence for nonconvex functions stands on weak mathematical foundations. Most existing studies on the nonconvex convergence of SGD show the complexity results based on either the minimum of the expected gradient norm or the functional sub-optimality gap (for functions with extra structural property) by searching the entire range of iterates. Hence the last iterations of SGDs do not necessarily maintain the same complexity guarantee. This paper shows that an $ε$-stationary point exists in the final iterates of SGDs, given a large enough total iteration budget, $T$, not just anywhere in the entire range of iterates -- a much stronger result than the existing one. Additionally, our analyses allow us to measure the density of the $ε$-stationary points in the final iterates of SGD, and we recover the classical $O(\frac{1}{\sqrt{T}})$ asymptotic rate under various existing assumptions on the objective function and the bounds on the stochastic gradient. As a result of our analyses, we addressed certain myths and legends related to the nonconvex convergence of SGD and posed some thought-provoking questions that could set new directions for research.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Improved Algorithms for Stochastic Linear Bandits Using Tail Bounds for Martingale Mixtures

We present improved algorithms with worst-case regret guarantees for the stochastic linear bandit problem. The widely used "optimism in the face of uncertainty" principle reduces a stochastic bandit problem to the construction of a confidence sequence for the unknown reward function. The performance of the resulting bandit algorithm depends on the size of the confidence sequence, with smaller confidence sets yielding better empirical performance and stronger regret guarantees. In this work, we use a novel tail bound for adaptive martingale mixtures to construct confidence sequences which are suitable for stochastic bandits. These confidence sequences allow for efficient action selection via convex programming. We prove that a linear bandit algorithm based on our confidence sequences is guaranteed to achieve competitive worst-case regret. We show that our confidence sequences are tighter than competitors, both empirically and theoretically. Finally, we demonstrate that our tighter confidence sequences give improved performance in several hyperparameter tuning tasks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Sampling-Free Probabilistic Deep State-Space Models

Many real-world dynamical systems can be described as State-Space Models (SSMs). In this formulation, each observation is emitted by a latent state, which follows first-order Markovian dynamics. A Probabilistic Deep SSM (ProDSSM) generalizes this framework to dynamical systems of unknown parametric form, where the transition and emission models are described by neural networks with uncertain weights. In this work, we propose the first deterministic inference algorithm for models of this type. Our framework allows efficient approximations for training and testing. We demonstrate in our experiments that our new method can be employed for a variety of tasks and enjoys a superior balance between predictive performance and computational budget.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Estimation of Counterfactual Interventions under Uncertainties

Counterfactual analysis is intuitively performed by humans on a daily basis eg. "What should I have done differently to get the loan approved?". Such counterfactual questions also steer the formulation of scientific hypotheses. More formally it provides insights about potential improvements of a system by inferring the effects of hypothetical interventions into a past observation of the system's behaviour which plays a prominent role in a variety of industrial applications. Due to the hypothetical nature of such analysis, counterfactual distributions are inherently ambiguous. This ambiguity is particularly challenging in continuous settings in which a continuum of explanations exist for the same observation. In this paper, we address this problem by following a hierarchical Bayesian approach which explicitly models such uncertainty. In particular, we derive counterfactual distributions for a Bayesian Warped Gaussian Process thereby allowing for non-Gaussian distributions and non-additive noise. We illustrate the properties our approach on a synthetic and on a semi-synthetic example and show its performance when used within an algorithmic recourse downstream task.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

PAC-Bayes Bounds for Bandit Problems: A Survey and Experimental Comparison

PAC-Bayes has recently re-emerged as an effective theory with which one can derive principled learning algorithms with tight performance guarantees. However, applications of PAC-Bayes to bandit problems are relatively rare, which is a great misfortune. Many decision-making problems in healthcare, finance and natural sciences can be modelled as bandit problems. In many of these applications, principled algorithms with strong performance guarantees would be very much appreciated. This survey provides an overview of PAC-Bayes bounds for bandit problems and an experimental comparison of these bounds. On the one hand, we found that PAC-Bayes bounds are a useful tool for designing offline bandit algorithms with performance guarantees. In our experiments, a PAC-Bayesian offline contextual bandit algorithm was able to learn randomised neural network polices with competitive expected reward and non-vacuous performance guarantees. On the other hand, the PAC-Bayesian online bandit algorithms that we tested had loose cumulative regret bounds. We conclude by discussing some topics for future work on PAC-Bayesian bandit algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Cheap and Deterministic Inference for Deep State-Space Models of Interacting Dynamical Systems

Graph neural networks are often used to model interacting dynamical systems since they gracefully scale to systems with a varying and high number of agents. While there has been much progress made for deterministic interacting systems, modeling is much more challenging for stochastic systems in which one is interested in obtaining a predictive distribution over future trajectories. Existing methods are either computationally slow since they rely on Monte Carlo sampling or make simplifying assumptions such that the predictive distribution is unimodal. In this work, we present a deep state-space model which employs graph neural networks in order to model the underlying interacting dynamical system. The predictive distribution is multimodal and has the form of a Gaussian mixture model, where the moments of the Gaussian components can be computed via deterministic moment matching rules. Our moment matching scheme can be exploited for sample-free inference, leading to more efficient and stable training compared to Monte Carlo alternatives. Furthermore, we propose structured approximations to the covariance matrices of the Gaussian components in order to scale up to systems with many agents. We benchmark our novel framework on two challenging autonomous driving datasets. Both confirm the benefits of our method compared to state-of-the-art methods. We further demonstrate the usefulness of our individual contributions in a carefully designed ablation study and provide a detailed runtime analysis of our proposed covariance approximations. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the generalization ability of our method by evaluating its performance on unseen scenarios.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Learning Interacting Dynamical Systems with Latent Gaussian Process ODEs

We study time uncertainty-aware modeling of continuous-time dynamics of interacting objects. We introduce a new model that decomposes independent dynamics of single objects accurately from their interactions. By employing latent Gaussian process ordinary differential equations, our model infers both independent dynamics and their interactions with reliable uncertainty estimates. In our formulation, each object is represented as a graph node and interactions are modeled by accumulating the messages coming from neighboring objects. We show that efficient inference of such a complex network of variables is possible with modern variational sparse Gaussian process inference techniques. We empirically demonstrate that our model improves the reliability of long-term predictions over neural network based alternatives and it successfully handles missing dynamic or static information. Furthermore, we observe that only our model can successfully encapsulate independent dynamics and interaction information in distinct functions and show the benefit from this disentanglement in extrapolation scenarios.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

A Deterministic Approximation to Neural SDEs

Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (NSDEs) model the drift and diffusion functions of a stochastic process as neural networks. While NSDEs are known to make accurate predictions, their uncertainty quantification properties have been remained unexplored so far. We report the empirical finding that obtaining well-calibrated uncertainty estimations from NSDEs is computationally prohibitive. As a remedy, we develop a computationally affordable deterministic scheme which accurately approximates the transition kernel, when dynamics is governed by a NSDE. Our method introduces a bidimensional moment matching algorithm: vertical along the neural net layers and horizontal along the time direction, which benefits from an original combination of effective approximations. Our deterministic approximation of the transition kernel is applicable to both training and prediction. We observe in multiple experiments that the uncertainty calibration quality of our method can be matched by Monte Carlo sampling only after introducing high computational cost. Thanks to the numerical stability of deterministic training, our method also improves prediction accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Evidential Turing Processes

A probabilistic classifier with reliable predictive uncertainties i) fits successfully to the target domain data, ii) provides calibrated class probabilities in difficult regions of the target domain (e.g.\ class overlap), and iii) accurately identifies queries coming out of the target domain and rejects them. We introduce an original combination of Evidential Deep Learning, Neural Processes, and Neural Turing Machines capable of providing all three essential properties mentioned above for total uncertainty quantification. We observe our method on five classification tasks to be the only one that can excel all three aspects of total calibration with a single standalone predictor. Our unified solution delivers an implementation-friendly and compute efficient recipe for safety clearance and provides intellectual economy to an investigation of algorithmic roots of epistemic awareness in deep neural nets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

PAC-Bayesian Lifelong Learning For Multi-Armed Bandits

We present a PAC-Bayesian analysis of lifelong learning. In the lifelong learning problem, a sequence of learning tasks is observed one-at-a-time, and the goal is to transfer information acquired from previous tasks to new learning tasks. We consider the case when each learning task is a multi-armed bandit problem. We derive lower bounds on the expected average reward that would be obtained if a given multi-armed bandit algorithm was run in a new task with a particular prior and for a set number of steps. We propose lifelong learning algorithms that use our new bounds as learning objectives. Our proposed algorithms are evaluated in several lifelong multi-armed bandit problems and are found to perform better than a baseline method that does not use generalisation bounds.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Traversing Time with Multi-Resolution Gaussian Process State-Space Models

Gaussian Process state-space models capture complex temporal dependencies in a principled manner by placing a Gaussian Process prior on the transition function. These models have a natural interpretation as discretized stochastic differential equations, but inference for long sequences with fast and slow transitions is difficult. Fast transitions need tight discretizations whereas slow transitions require backpropagating the gradients over long subtrajectories. We propose a novel Gaussian process state-space architecture composed of multiple components, each trained on a different resolution, to model effects on different timescales. The combined model allows traversing time on adaptive scales, providing efficient inference for arbitrarily long sequences with complex dynamics. We benchmark our novel method on semi-synthetic data and on an engine modeling task. In both experiments, our approach compares favorably against its state-of-the-art alternatives that operate on a single time-scale only.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Inferring the Structure of Ordinary Differential Equations

Understanding physical phenomena oftentimes means understanding the underlying dynamical system that governs observational measurements. While accurate prediction can be achieved with black box systems, they often lack interpretability and are less amenable for further expert investigation. Alternatively, the dynamics can be analysed via symbolic regression. In this paper, we extend the approach by (Udrescu et al., 2020) called AIFeynman to the dynamic setting to perform symbolic regression on ODE systems based on observations from the resulting trajectories. We compare this extension to state-of-the-art approaches for symbolic regression empirically on several dynamical systems for which the ground truth equations of increasing complexity are available. Although the proposed approach performs best on this benchmark, we observed difficulties of all the compared symbolic regression approaches on more complex systems, such as Cart-Pole.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Learning Partially Known Stochastic Dynamics with Empirical PAC Bayes

Neural Stochastic Differential Equations model a dynamical environment with neural nets assigned to their drift and diffusion terms. The high expressive power of their nonlinearity comes at the expense of instability in the identification of the large set of free parameters. This paper presents a recipe to improve the prediction accuracy of such models in three steps: i) accounting for epistemic uncertainty by assuming probabilistic weights, ii) incorporation of partial knowledge on the state dynamics, and iii) training the resultant hybrid model by an objective derived from a PAC-Bayesian generalization bound. We observe in our experiments that this recipe effectively translates partial and noisy prior knowledge into an improved model fit.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Bayesian Evidential Deep Learning with PAC Regularization

We propose a novel method for closed-form predictive distribution modeling with neural nets. In quantifying prediction uncertainty, we build on Evidential Deep Learning, which has been impactful as being both simple to implement and giving closed-form access to predictive uncertainty. We employ it to model aleatoric uncertainty and extend it to account also for epistemic uncertainty by converting it to a Bayesian Neural Net. While extending its uncertainty quantification capabilities, we maintain its analytically accessible predictive distribution model by performing progressive moment matching for the first time for approximate weight marginalization. The eventual model introduces a prohibitively large number of hyperparameters for stable training. We overcome this drawback by deriving a vacuous PAC bound that comprises the marginal likelihood of the predictor and a complexity penalty. We observe on regression, classification, and out-of-domain detection benchmarks that our method improves model fit and uncertainty quantification.

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