arXiv subjects

Melike Baykal-Gürsoy

Publications and source records attributed to Melike Baykal-Gürsoy.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Quiz Show Games: Searching with Bimodal Hiding

We consider a quiz show game in which a contestant is presented with a sequence of questions. Each time the contestant answers a question correctly, she receives a prize and proceeds to the next question; the probability of answering each question correctly is given. If the contestant answers a question incorrectly, she receives a consolation prize and the game ends. The contestant's problem of determining the optimal order in which to answer questions, for known fixed parameters, is a classic one studied in Kadane (1969), and admits a simple index-based solution. We consider game-theoretic versions of this problem in which a game show host can choose how to allocate a fixed prize budget. Our models are motivated by operational search problems in national security involving reconnaissance missions and inspecting for evidence of nuclear enrichment, as well as certain scheduling problems. We study three variants of the game, corresponding to different ways in which the host can distribute the prize money. For the first variant, we provide complete closed-form solutions, including equilibrium strategies and the value of the game. We reduce the second variant to a game solved in the literature. For the third variant, we obtain partial results by analyzing a more general game with a geometric structure.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2020

Behavior Associations in Lone-Actor Terrorists

Terrorist attacks carried out by individuals or single cells have significantly accelerated over the last 20 years. This type of terrorism, defined as lone-actor (LA) terrorism, stands as one of the greatest security threats of our time. Research on LA behavior and characteristics has emerged and accelerated over the last decade. While these studies have produced valuable information on demographics, behavior, classifications, and warning signs, the relationship among these characters are yet to be addressed. Moreover, the means of radicalization and attacking have changed over decades. This study first identifies 25 binary behavioral characteristics of LAs and analyzes 192 LAs recorded on three different databases. Next, the classification is carried out according to first ideology, then to incident scene behavior via a virtual attacker-defender game, and, finally, according to the clusters obtained from the data. In addition, within each class, statistically significant associations and temporal relations are extracted using the A-priori algorithm. These associations would be instrumental in identifying the attacker type and intervene at the right time. The results indicate that while pre-9/11 LAs were mostly radicalized by the people in their environment, post-9/11 LAs are more diverse. Furthermore, the association chains for different LA types present unique characteristic pathways to violence and after-attack behavior.

stat.AP↗