arXiv subjects

Mercedes Pascual

Publications and source records attributed to Mercedes Pascual.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Inference on spatiotemporal dynamics for networks of biological populations

Mathematical models in ecology and epidemiology must be consistent with observed data in order to generate reliable knowledge and evidence-based policy. Metapopulation systems, which consist of a network of connected sub-populations, pose technical challenges in statistical inference due to nonlinear, stochastic interactions. Numerical difficulties encountered in conducting inference can obstruct the core scientific questions concerning the link between the mathematical models and the data. Recently, an algorithm has been developed which enables effective likelihood-based inference for the high-dimensional partially observed stochastic dynamic models arising in metapopulation systems. The COVID-19 pandemic provides a situation where mathematical models and their policy implications were widely visible, and we use the new inferential technology to revisit an influential metapopulation model used to inform basic epidemiological understanding early in the pandemic. Our methods support self-critical data analysis, enabling us to identify and address model limitations, and leading to a new model with substantially improved statistical fit and parameter identifiability. Our results suggest that the lockdown initiated on January 23, 2020 in China was more effective than previously thought. We proceed to recommend statistical analysis standards for future metapopulation system modeling.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Rate-Induced Transitions in Networked Complex Adaptive Systems: Exploring Dynamics and Management Implications Across Ecological, Social, and Socioecological Systems

Complex adaptive systems (CASs), from ecosystems to economies, are open systems and inherently dependent on external conditions. While a system can transition from one state to another based on the magnitude of change in external conditions, the rate of change -- irrespective of magnitude -- may also lead to system state changes due to a phenomenon known as a rate-induced transition (RIT). This study presents a novel framework that captures RITs in CASs through a local model and a network extension where each node contributes to the structural adaptability of others. Our findings reveal how RITs occur at a critical environmental change rate, with lower-degree nodes tipping first due to fewer connections and reduced adaptive capacity. High-degree nodes tip later as their adaptability sources (lower-degree nodes) collapse. This pattern persists across various network structures. Our study calls for an extended perspective when managing CASs, emphasizing the need to focus not only on thresholds of external conditions but also the rate at which those conditions change, particularly in the context of the collapse of surrounding systems that contribute to the focal system's resilience. Our analytical method opens a path to designing management policies that mitigate RIT impacts and enhance resilience in ecological, social, and socioecological systems. These policies could include controlling environmental change rates, fostering system adaptability, implementing adaptive management strategies, and building capacity and knowledge exchange. Our study contributes to the understanding of RIT dynamics and informs effective management strategies for complex adaptive systems in the face of rapid environmental change.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

The Multilayer Nature of Ecological Networks

Although networks provide a powerful approach to study a large variety of ecological systems, their formulation does not typically account for multiple interaction types, interactions that vary in space and time, and interconnected systems such as networks of networks. The emergent field of `multilayer networks' provides a natural framework for extending analyses of ecological systems to include such multiple layers of complexity, as it specifically allows one to differentiate and model `intralayer' and `interlayer' connectivity. The framework provides a set of concepts and tools that can be adapted and applied to ecology, facilitating research on high-dimensional, heterogeneous systems in nature. Here, we formally define ecological multilayer networks based on a review of previous and related approaches, illustrate their application and potential with analyses of existing data, and discuss limitations, challenges, and future applications. The integration of multilayer network theory into ecology offers largely untapped potential to further address ecological complexity, to ultimately provide new theoretical and empirical insights into the architecture and dynamics of ecological systems.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2016

Cholera forecast for Dhaka, Bangladesh, with the 2016 El Niño

A substantial body of work supports a teleconnection between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera incidence in Bangladesh. In particular, high positive anomalies during the winter (Dec-Feb) in Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) in the Tropical Pacific have been shown to exacerbate the seasonal outbreak of cholera following the monsoons from Aug to Nov, and climate studies have indicated a role of regional precipitation over Bangladesh in mediating this long-distance effect. Thus, the current strong El Niño has the potential to significantly increase cholera risk this year in Dhaka, Bangladesh, where the last five years have experienced low seasons of the disease. To examine this possibility and produce a forecast for the city, we considered two models for the transmission dynamics of cholera: a statistical model previously developed for the disease in this region, and a process-based model presented here that includes the effect of SST anomalies in the force of infection and is fitted to extensive cholera surveillance record between 1995 and 2010. Prediction accuracy was evaluated with 'out-of-fit' data from the same surveillance efforts, by comparing the total number of cholera cases observed for the season to those predicted by model simulations 8 to 12 months ahead, starting in January each year. Encouraged by accurate forecasts for the low risk of cholera for this period, we then generated a prediction for this coming season. An increase above the third quantile in cholera cases is expected for the period of Aug - Dec 2016 with 92% and 87% probability respectively for the two models. This alert warrants the preparedness of the public health system. We discuss the possible limitations of our approach, including variations in the impact of El Niño events, and the importance of this large, warm event for further informing an early-warning system for cholera in Dhaka

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2015

Seasonality in the migration and establishment of H3N2 Influenza lineages with epidemic growth and decline

Background: Influenza A/H3N2 has been circulating in humans since 1968, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. Although H3N2 incidence is highly seasonal, how such seasonality contributes to global phylogeographic migration dynamics has not yet been established. Results: Incorporating seasonally varying migration rates improves the modeling of migration. In our global model, windows of increased immigration map to the seasonal timing of epidemic spread, while windows of increased emigration map to epidemic decline. Seasonal patterns also correlate with the probability that local lineages go extinct and fail to contribute to long term viral evolution, as measured through the trunk of the phylogeny. However, the fraction of the trunk in each community was found to be better determined by its overall human population size Conclusions: Seasonal migration and rapid turnover within regions is sustained by the invasion of 'fertile epidemic grounds' at the end of older epidemics. Thus, the current emphasis on connectivity, including air-travel, should be complemented with a better understanding of the conditions and timing required for successful establishment.Models which account for migration seasonality will improve our understanding of the seasonal drivers of influenza,enhance epidemiological predictions, and ameliorate vaccine updating by identifying strains that not only escape immunity but also have the seasonal opportunity to establish and spread. Further work is also needed on additional conditions that contribute to the persistence and long term evolution of influenza within the human population,such as spatial heterogeneity with respect to climate and seasonality

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2013

Nonparametric Bayesian grouping methods for spatial time-series data

We describe an approach for identifying groups of dynamically similar locations in spatial time-series data based on a simple Markov transition model. We give maximum-likelihood, empirical Bayes, and fully Bayesian formulations of the model, and describe exhaustive, greedy, and MCMC-based inference methods. The approach has been employed successfully in several studies to reveal meaningful relationships between environmental patterns and disease dynamics.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2011

Canalization of the evolutionary trajectory of the human influenza virus

Since its emergence in 1968, influenza A (H3N2) has evolved extensively in genotype and antigenic phenotype. Antigenic evolution occurs in the context of a two-dimensional 'antigenic map', while genetic evolution shows a characteristic ladder-like genealogical tree. Here, we use a large-scale individual-based model to show that evolution in a Euclidean antigenic space provides a remarkable correspondence between model behavior and the epidemiological, antigenic, genealogical and geographic patterns observed in influenza virus. We find that evolution away from existing human immunity results in rapid population turnover in the influenza virus and that this population turnover occurs primarily along a single antigenic axis. Thus, selective dynamics induce a canalized evolutionary trajectory, in which the evolutionary fate of the influenza population is surprisingly repeatable and hence, in theory, predictable.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2011

Spatial Guilds in the Serengeti Food Web Revealed by a Bayesian Group Model

Food webs, networks of feeding relationships among organisms, provide fundamental insights into mechanisms that determine ecosystem stability and persistence. Despite long-standing interest in the compartmental structure of food webs, past network analyses of food webs have been constrained by a standard definition of compartments, or modules, that requires many links within compartments and few links between them. Empirical analyses have been further limited by low-resolution data for primary producers. In this paper, we present a Bayesian computational method for identifying group structure in food webs using a flexible definition of a group that can describe both functional roles and standard compartments. The Serengeti ecosystem provides an opportunity to examine structure in a newly compiled food web that includes species-level resolution among plants, allowing us to address whether groups in the food web correspond to tightly-connected compartments or functional groups, and whether network structure reflects spatial or trophic organization, or a combination of the two. We have compiled the major mammalian and plant components of the Serengeti food web from published literature, and we infer its group structure using our method. We find that network structure corresponds to spatially distinct plant groups coupled at higher trophic levels by groups of herbivores, which are in turn coupled by carnivore groups. Thus the group structure of the Serengeti web represents a mixture of trophic guild structure and spatial patterns, in contrast to the standard compartments typically identified in ecological networks. From data consisting only of nodes and links, the group structure that emerges supports recent ideas on spatial coupling and energy channels in ecosystems that have been proposed as important for persistence.

q-bio.PE↗