arXiv subjects

Meredith Franklin

Publications and source records attributed to Meredith Franklin.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Convolution Smoothed Quantile Regression for XGBoost

The increasing availability of large and complex datasets across many scientific disciplines has led to widespread adoption of machine learning (ML) for prediction. However, most ML algorithms focus on point estimation and provide limited information about predictive uncertainty or the conditional distribution of the response, restricting their ability to characterize rare or extreme outcomes. We develop QXGB, a quantile-based gradient boosting framework, and introduce a convolution smoothed loss within it that estimates conditional quantiles for constructing dense cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), exceedance probabilities, and tail behaviour relevant to extreme outcomes. This approach preserves the computational efficiency of extreme gradient boosting while restoring the Hessian information XGBoost relies on for tree splitting, in turn providing interpretable measures of extreme value and exceedance probability predictions. We derive the gradients and Hessians needed to integrate convolution smoothed quantile loss with different kernel specifications into XGBoost, and with simulated data, benchmark this approach against alternative smoothed quantile regression losses, the native quantile objective in the XGBoost Python package, and independent versus multi-output tree estimation. The practical relevance is illustrated in an application predicting fine particulate matter (PM$_{2.5}$) in northern California, including periods where levels were elevated due to wildfire smoke. Our results show that convolution smoothed QXGB, particularly when paired with multi-output trees, delivers accurate predictions with near-zero quantile crossing, well-calibrated CDF and exceedance probability estimates, and useful tail characterization for extreme values. Interval estimation is also evaluated as a measure of data spread.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

RESAPLE: An Approximate One-Step Restricted Likelihood Estimator of Spatial Dependence for Exploratory Spatial Analysis

Spatial autocorrelation diagnostics such as Moran's index and the approximate profile likelihood-based estimators (APLE) are widely used to assess spatial dependence in areal data. Yet, although Moran's index is frequently applied to regression residuals and APLE is typically formulated for raw outcomes, neither is explicitly derived as an estimator of residual spatial dependence after adjusting for large-scale trends and covariates. We propose RESAPLE, a one-step approximate restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimator of the spatial error model's spatial dependence parameter $\rho$ based on REML residuals. Because RESAPLE is a Rayleigh coefficient, it retains the interpretability and diagnostic convenience of exploratory indices, while also providing a computationally inexpensive and accurate estimator of $\rho$ under moderate spatial dependence. We show theoretically that for small to medium sample sizes and well-specified trend models, RESAPLE is a better estimator of, and competitive test statistic for, residual spatial dependence relative to Moran's index and the APLE across a broad range of spatial configurations. The theory we develop also yields a diagnostic for spatial weight selection, providing guidance towards resolving a longstanding challenge in spatial data analysis. We illustrate the method through simulations on both regular and highly irregular lattices with a case study using American Community Survey tract-level data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Structured Exploration vs. Generative Flexibility: A Field Study Comparing Bandit and LLM Architectures for Personalised Health Behaviour Interventions

Behaviour Change Techniques (BCTs) are central to digital health interventions, yet selecting and delivering effective techniques remains challenging. Contextual bandits enable statistically grounded optimisation of BCT selection, while Large Language Models (LLMs) offer flexible, context-sensitive message generation. We conducted a 4-week study on physical activity motivation (N=54; 9 post-study interviews) that compared five daily messaging approaches: random templates, contextual bandit with templates, LLM generation, hybrid bandit+LLM, and LLM with interaction history. LLM-based approaches were rated substantially more helpful than templates, but no significant differences emerged among LLM conditions. Unexpectedly, bandit optimisation for BCTs selection yielded no additional perceived helpfulness compared with LLM-only approaches. Unconstrained LLMs focused heavily on a single BCT, whereas bandit systems enforced systematic exploration-exploitation across techniques. Quantitative and qualitative findings suggest contextual acknowledgement of user input drove perceived helpfulness. We contribute design suggestions for reflective AI health behaviour change systems that address a trade-off between structured exploration and generative autonomy.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Spatiotemporal Satellite Image Downscaling with Transfer Encoders and Autoregressive Generative Models

We present a transfer-learning generative downscaling framework to reconstruct fine resolution satellite images from coarse scale inputs. Our approach combines a lightweight U-Net transfer encoder with a diffusion-based generative model. The simpler U-Net is first pretrained on a long time series of coarse resolution data to learn spatiotemporal representations; its encoder is then frozen and transferred to a larger downscaling model as physically meaningful latent features. Our application uses NASA's MERRA-2 reanalysis as the low resolution source domain (50 km) and the GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR) as the high resolution target (7 km). Our study area included a large area in Asia, which was made computationally tractable by splitting into two subregions and four seasons. We conducted domain similarity analysis using Wasserstein distances confirmed minimal distributional shift between MERRA-2 and G5NR, validating the safety of parameter frozen transfer. Across seasonal regional splits, our model achieved excellent performance (R2 = 0.65 to 0.94), outperforming comparison models including deterministic U-Nets, variational autoencoders, and prior transfer learning baselines. Out of data evaluations using semivariograms, ACF/PACF, and lag-based RMSE/R2 demonstrated that the predicted downscaled images preserved physically consistent spatial variability and temporal autocorrelation, enabling stable autoregressive reconstruction beyond the G5NR record. These results show that transfer enhanced diffusion models provide a robust and physically coherent solution for downscaling a long time series of coarse resolution images with limited training periods. This advancement has significant implications for improving environmental exposure assessment and long term environmental monitoring.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Bayesian spatio-temporal weighted regression for integrating missing and misaligned environmental data

Estimating environmental exposures from multi-source data is central to public health research and policy. Integrating data from satellite products and ground monitors are increasingly used to produce exposure surfaces. However, spatio-temporal misalignment often induced from missing data introduces substantial uncertainty and reduces predictive accuracy. We propose a Bayesian weighted predictor regression framework that models spatio-temporal relationships when predictors are observed on irregular supports or have substantial missing data, and are not concurrent with the outcome. The key feature of our model is a spatio-temporal kernel that aggregates the predictor over local space-time neighborhoods, built directly into the likelihood, eliminating any separate gap-filling or forced data alignment stage. We introduce a numerical approximation using a Voronoi-based spatial quadrature combined with irregular temporal increments for estimation under data missingness and misalignment. We showed that misspecification of the spatial and temporal lags induced bias in the mean and parameter estimates, indicating the need for principled parameter selection. Simulation studies confirmed these findings, where careful tuning was critical to control bias and achieve accurate prediction, while the proposed quadrature performed well under severe missingness. As an illustrative application, we estimated fine particulate matter (PM$_{2.5}$) in northern California using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) and wildfire smoke plume indicators. Relative to a traditional collocated linear model, our approach improved out-of-sample predictive performance, reduced uncertainty, and yielded robust temporal predictions and spatial surface estimation. Our framework is extensible to additional spatio-temporally varying covariates and other kernel families.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Tailored Behavior-Change Messaging for Physical Activity: Integrating Contextual Bandits and Large Language Models

Contextual multi-armed bandit (cMAB) algorithms offer a promising framework for adapting behavioral interventions to individuals over time. However, cMABs often require large samples to learn effectively and typically rely on a finite pre-set of fixed message templates. In this paper, we present a hybrid cMABxLLM approach in which the cMAB selects an intervention type, and a large language model (LLM) which personalizes the message content within the selected type. We deployed this approach in a 30-day physical-activity intervention, comparing four behavioral change intervention types: behavioral self-monitoring, gain-framing, loss-framing, and social comparison, delivered as daily motivational messages to support motivation and achieve a daily step count. Message content is personalized using dynamic contextual factors, including daily fluctuations in self-efficacy, social influence, and regulatory focus. Over the trial, participants received daily messages assigned by one of five models: equal randomization (RCT), cMAB only, LLM only, LLM with interaction history, or cMABxLLM. Outcomes include motivation towards physical activity and message usefulness, assessed via ecological momentary assessments (EMAs). We evaluate and compare the five delivery models using pre-specified statistical analyses that account for repeated measures and time trends. We find that the cMABxLLM approach retains the perceived acceptance of LLM-generated messages, while reducing token usage and providing an explicit, reproducible decision rule for intervention selection. This hybrid approach also avoids the skew in intervention delivery by improving support for under-delivered intervention types. More broadly, our approach provides a deployable template for combining Bayesian adaptive experimentation with generative models in a way that supports both personalization and interpretability.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Adaptive Experiments Under Data Sparse Settings: Applications for Educational Platforms

Adaptive experimentation is increasingly used in educational platforms to personalize learning through dynamic content and feedback. However, standard adaptive strategies such as Thompson Sampling often underperform in real-world educational settings where content variations are numerous and student participation is limited, resulting in sparse data. In particular, Thompson Sampling can lead to imbalanced content allocation and delayed convergence on which aspects of content are most effective for student learning. To address these challenges, we introduce Weighted Allocation Probability Adjusted Thompson Sampling (WAPTS), an algorithm that refines the sampling strategy to improve content-related decision-making in data-sparse environments. WAPTS is guided by the principle of lenient regret, allowing near-optimal allocations to accelerate learning while still exploring promising content. We evaluate WAPTS in a learnersourcing scenario where students rate peer-generated learning materials, and demonstrate that it enables earlier and more reliable identification of promising treatments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Surface Water Quality Distribution in California (1956-2023)

Surface water quality has a direct impact on public health, ecosystems, and agriculture, in addition to being an important indicator of the overall health of the environment. California's diverse climate, extensive coastline, and varied topography lead to distinct spatial and temporal patterns in surface water. This study offers a comprehensive assessment of these patterns by leveraging around 70 years of data, taking into account climate zones and geographical types. We analyzed surface water quality indicators, including pH, dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, and water temperature, based on field results from approximately 5,000 water quality stations in California Water Quality Data (CWQD). Machine learning (ML) models were developed to establish relationships between spatial and temporal variables, climate zones, geographical types, and water quality indicators. Applying these models to spatially interpolate and temporally predict the four water quality indicators over California for the next 50 years, the research results indicate an uneven distribution of water quality indicators in California, suggesting the presence of potential pollution zones, seawater erosion, and effects of climate change.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Physics-Informed Deep Learning to Reduce the Bias in Joint Prediction of Nitrogen Oxides

Atmospheric nitrogen oxides (NOx) primarily from fuel combustion have recognized acute and chronic health and environmental effects. Machine learning (ML) methods have significantly enhanced our capacity to predict NOx concentrations at ground-level with high spatiotemporal resolution but may suffer from high estimation bias since they lack physical and chemical knowledge about air pollution dynamics. Chemical transport models (CTMs) leverage this knowledge; however, accurate predictions of ground-level concentrations typically necessitate extensive post-calibration. Here, we present a physics-informed deep learning framework that encodes advection-diffusion mechanisms and fluid dynamics constraints to jointly predict NO2 and NOx and reduce ML model bias by 21-42%. Our approach captures fine-scale transport of NO2 and NOx, generates robust spatial extrapolation, and provides explicit uncertainty estimation. The framework fuses knowledge-driven physicochemical principles of CTMs with the predictive power of ML for air quality exposure, health, and policy applications. Our approach offers significant improvements over purely data-driven ML methods and has unprecedented bias reduction in joint NO2 and NOx prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Quantile Extreme Gradient Boosting for Uncertainty Quantification

As the availability, size and complexity of data have increased in recent years, machine learning (ML) techniques have become popular for modeling. Predictions resulting from applying ML models are often used for inference, decision-making, and downstream applications. A crucial yet often overlooked aspect of ML is uncertainty quantification, which can significantly impact how predictions from models are used and interpreted. Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) is one of the most popular ML methods given its simple implementation, fast computation, and sequential learning, which make its predictions highly accurate compared to other methods. However, techniques for uncertainty determination in ML models such as XGBoost have not yet been universally agreed among its varying applications. We propose enhancements to XGBoost whereby a modified quantile regression is used as the objective function to estimate uncertainty (QXGBoost). Specifically, we included the Huber norm in the quantile regression model to construct a differentiable approximation to the quantile regression error function. This key step allows XGBoost, which uses a gradient-based optimization algorithm, to make probabilistic predictions efficiently. QXGBoost was applied to create 90\% prediction intervals for one simulated dataset and one real-world environmental dataset of measured traffic noise. Our proposed method had comparable or better performance than the uncertainty estimates generated for regular and quantile light gradient boosting. For both the simulated and traffic noise datasets, the overall performance of the prediction intervals from QXGBoost were better than other models based on coverage width-based criterion.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Building Autocorrelation-Aware Representations for Fine-Scale Spatiotemporal Prediction

Many scientific prediction problems have spatiotemporal data- and modeling-related challenges in handling complex variations in space and time using only sparse and unevenly distributed observations. This paper presents a novel deep learning architecture, Deep learning predictions for LocATion-dependent Time-sEries data (DeepLATTE), that explicitly incorporates theories of spatial statistics into neural networks to address these challenges. In addition to a feature selection module and a spatiotemporal learning module, DeepLATTE contains an autocorrelation-guided semi-supervised learning strategy to enforce both local autocorrelation patterns and global autocorrelation trends of the predictions in the learned spatiotemporal embedding space to be consistent with the observed data, overcoming the limitation of sparse and unevenly distributed observations. During the training process, both supervised and semi-supervised losses guide the updates of the entire network to: 1) prevent overfitting, 2) refine feature selection, 3) learn useful spatiotemporal representations, and 4) improve overall prediction. We conduct a demonstration of DeepLATTE using publicly available data for an important public health topic, air quality prediction, in a well-studied, complex physical environment - Los Angeles. The experiment demonstrates that the proposed approach provides accurate fine-spatial-scale air quality predictions and reveals the critical environmental factors affecting the results.

cs.LG↗