arXiv subjects

Mert Kayaalp

Publications and source records attributed to Mert Kayaalp.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Test-Time Collaborative Classification over Multi-Agent Networks

The increasing heterogeneity of multi-agent systems poses significant challenges for jointly training a global model across agents. At the same time, cooperative inference between agents has long been recognized as a powerful mechanism for distributed decision making over networks. Motivated by these observations, we propose a collaboration framework for distributed binary classification over multi-agent networks, where a set of independently trained agents, potentially differing in architecture, feature space, or modality, coordinate their actions during test time to form collective predictions. This coordination is achieved by exchanging local decision statistics through a distributed learning protocol. We develop a theoretical and experimental study of this independent training and cooperative inference paradigm, and examine its performance under different communication budgets and distributed learning rules. We establish classification error guarantees under sufficient, finite-round, and finite-precision communication, together with PAC-style generalization bounds. These results capture the influence of model heterogeneity, network topology, combination policy, and communication constraints on prediction accuracy. Taken together with the experimental results, they reveal both the price of independent training and the benefit of collective prediction for the proposed distributed decision making framework with models learned from data.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

Signal Recovery from Time and Frequency Samples

We analyze signal recovery when samples are taken concomitantly from a signal and its Fourier transform. This two-sided sampling framework extends classical one-sided reconstruction and is particularly useful when measurements in either domain alone are insufficient because of sensing, storage, or bandwidth constraints. We formulate the resulting recovery problem in finite-dimensional spaces and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, and illustrate the infinite-dimensional setting in a Fourier-symmetric Sobolev space. Numerical experiments with sinc- and Hermite-based schemes indicate that, under a fixed sampling budget, two-sided sampling often yields better conditioned systems than one-sided approaches. A simplified spectrum-monitoring example further demonstrates improved reconstruction when limited time samples are supplemented with frequency-domain information.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2026

Causal Influences over Social Learning Networks

This paper investigates causal influences between agents linked by a social graph and interacting over time. In particular, the work examines the dynamics of social learning models and distributed decision-making protocols, and derives expressions that reveal the causal relations between pairs of agents and explain the flow of influence over the network. The results turn out to be dependent on the graph topology and the level of information that each agent has about the inference problem they are trying to solve. Using these conclusions, the paper proposes an algorithm to rank the overall influence between agents to discover highly influential agents. It also provides a method to learn the necessary model parameters from raw observational data. The results and the proposed algorithm are illustrated by considering both synthetic data and real social media data.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Test-Time Efficient Pretrained Model Portfolios for Time Series Forecasting

Is bigger always better for time series foundation models? With the question in mind, we explore an alternative to training a single, large monolithic model: building a portfolio of smaller, pretrained forecasting models. By applying ensembling or model selection over these portfolios, we achieve competitive performance on large-scale benchmarks using much fewer parameters. We explore strategies for designing such portfolios and find that collections of specialist models consistently outperform portfolios of independently trained generalists. Remarkably, we demonstrate that post-training a base model is a compute-effective approach for creating sufficiently diverse specialists, and provide evidences that ensembling and model selection are more compute-efficient than test-time fine-tuning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Opinion Consensus Formation Among Networked Large Language Models

Can classical consensus models predict the group behavior of large language models (LLMs)? We examine multi-round interactions among LLM agents through the DeGroot framework, where agents exchange text-based messages over diverse communication graphs. To track opinion evolution, we map each message to an opinion score via sentiment analysis. We find that agents typically reach consensus and the disagreement between the agents decays exponentially. However, the limiting opinion departs from DeGroot's network-centrality-weighted forecast. The consensus between LLM agents turns out to be largely insensitive to initial conditions and instead depends strongly on the discussion subject and inherent biases. Nevertheless, transient dynamics align with classical graph theory and the convergence rate of opinions is closely related to the second-largest eigenvalue of the graph's combination matrix. Together, these findings can be useful for LLM-driven social-network simulations and the design of resource-efficient multi-agent LLM applications.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Non-Asymptotic Performance of Social Machine Learning Under Limited Data

This paper studies the probability of error associated with the social machine learning framework, which involves an independent training phase followed by a cooperative decision-making phase over a graph. This framework addresses the problem of classifying a stream of unlabeled data in a distributed manner. In this work, we examine the classification task with limited observations during the decision-making phase, which requires a non-asymptotic performance analysis. We establish a condition for consistent training and derive an upper bound on the probability of error for classification. The results clarify the dependence on the statistical properties of the data and the combination policy used over the graph. They also establish the exponential decay of the probability of error with respect to the number of unlabeled samples.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Detection of Malicious Agents in Social Learning

Non-Bayesian social learning is a framework for distributed hypothesis testing aimed at learning the true state of the environment. Traditionally, the agents are assumed to receive observations conditioned on the same true state, although it is also possible to examine the case of heterogeneous models across the graph. One important special case is when heterogeneity is caused by the presence of malicious agents whose goal is to move the agents toward a wrong hypothesis. In this work, we propose an algorithm that allows discovering the true state of every individual agent based on the sequence of their beliefs. In so doing, the methodology is also able to locate malicious behavior.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Social Learning in Community Structured Graphs

Traditional social learning frameworks consider environments with a homogeneous state, where each agent receives observations conditioned on that true state of nature. In this work, we relax this assumption and study the distributed hypothesis testing problem in a heterogeneous environment, where each agent can receive observations conditioned on their own personalized state of nature (or truth). We particularly focus on community structured networks, where each community admits their own true hypothesis. This scenario is common in various contexts, such as when sensors are spatially distributed, or when individuals in a social network have differing views or opinions. We show that the adaptive social learning strategy is a preferred choice for nonstationary environments, and allows each cluster to discover its own truth.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Causal Influence in Federated Edge Inference

In this paper, we consider a setting where heterogeneous agents with connectivity are performing inference using unlabeled streaming data. Observed data are only partially informative about the target variable of interest. In order to overcome the uncertainty, agents cooperate with each other by exchanging their local inferences with and through a fusion center. To evaluate how each agent influences the overall decision, we adopt a causal framework in order to distinguish the actual influence of agents from mere correlations within the decision-making process. Various scenarios reflecting different agent participation patterns and fusion center policies are investigated. We derive expressions to quantify the causal impact of each agent on the joint decision, which could be beneficial for anticipating and addressing atypical scenarios, such as adversarial attacks or system malfunctions. We validate our theoretical results with numerical simulations and a real-world application of multi-camera crowd counting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Social Opinion Formation and Decision Making Under Communication Trends

This work studies the learning process over social networks under partial and random information sharing. In traditional social learning models, agents exchange full belief information with each other while trying to infer the true state of nature. We study the case where agents share information about only one hypothesis, namely, the trending topic, which can be randomly changing at every iteration. We show that agents can learn the true hypothesis even if they do not discuss it, at rates comparable to traditional social learning. We also show that using one's own belief as a prior for estimating the neighbors' non-transmitted beliefs might create opinion clusters that prevent learning with full confidence. This phenomenon occurs when a single hypothesis corresponding to the truth is exchanged exclusively during all times. Such a practice, however, avoids the complete rejection of the truth under any information exchange procedure -- something that could happen if priors were uniform.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2023

On the Arithmetic and Geometric Fusion of Beliefs for Distributed Inference

We study the asymptotic learning rates under linear and log-linear combination rules of belief vectors in a distributed hypothesis testing problem. We show that under both combination strategies, agents are able to learn the truth exponentially fast, with a faster rate under log-linear fusion. We examine the gap between the rates in terms of network connectivity and information diversity. We also provide closed-form expressions for special cases involving federated architectures and exchangeable networks.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2023

Policy Evaluation in Decentralized POMDPs with Belief Sharing

Most works on multi-agent reinforcement learning focus on scenarios where the state of the environment is fully observable. In this work, we consider a cooperative policy evaluation task in which agents are not assumed to observe the environment state directly. Instead, agents can only have access to noisy observations and to belief vectors. It is well-known that finding global posterior distributions under multi-agent settings is generally NP-hard. As a remedy, we propose a fully decentralized belief forming strategy that relies on individual updates and on localized interactions over a communication network. In addition to the exchange of the beliefs, agents exploit the communication network by exchanging value function parameter estimates as well. We analytically show that the proposed strategy allows information to diffuse over the network, which in turn allows the agents' parameters to have a bounded difference with a centralized baseline. A multi-sensor target tracking application is considered in the simulations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

On the Fusion Strategies for Federated Decision Making

We consider the problem of information aggregation in federated decision making, where a group of agents collaborate to infer the underlying state of nature without sharing their private data with the central processor or each other. We analyze the non-Bayesian social learning strategy in which agents incorporate their individual observations into their opinions (i.e., soft-decisions) with Bayes rule, and the central processor aggregates these opinions by arithmetic or geometric averaging. Building on our previous work, we establish that both pooling strategies result in asymptotic normality characterization of the system, which, for instance, can be utilized to derive approximate expressions for the error probability. We verify the theoretical findings with simulations and compare both strategies.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Discovering Influencers in Opinion Formation over Social Graphs

The adaptive social learning paradigm helps model how networked agents are able to form opinions on a state of nature and track its drifts in a changing environment. In this framework, the agents repeatedly update their beliefs based on private observations and exchange the beliefs with their neighbors. In this work, it is shown how the sequence of publicly exchanged beliefs over time allows users to discover rich information about the underlying network topology and about the flow of information over the graph. In particular, it is shown that it is possible (i) to identify the influence of each individual agent to the objective of truth learning, (ii) to discover how well-informed each agent is, (iii) to quantify the pairwise influences between agents, and (iv) to learn the underlying network topology. The algorithm derived herein is also able to work under non-stationary environments where either the true state of nature or the graph topology are allowed to drift over time. We apply the proposed algorithm to different subnetworks of Twitter users, and identify the most influential and central agents by using their public tweets (posts).

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Distributed Bayesian Learning of Dynamic States

This work studies networked agents cooperating to track a dynamical state of nature under partial information. The proposed algorithm is a distributed Bayesian filtering algorithm for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). It can be used for sequential state estimation tasks, as well as for modeling opinion formation over social networks under dynamic environments. We show that the disagreement with the optimal centralized solution is asymptotically bounded for the class of geometrically ergodic state transition models, which includes rapidly changing models. We also derive recursions for calculating the probability of error and establish convergence under Gaussian observation models. Simulations are provided to illustrate the theory and to compare against alternative approaches.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2022

A Fundamental Limit of Distributed Hypothesis Testing Under Memoryless Quantization

We study a distributed hypothesis testing setup where peripheral nodes send quantized data to the fusion center in a memoryless fashion. The \emph{expected} number of bits sent by each node under the null hypothesis is kept limited. We characterize the optimal decay rate of the mis-detection (type-II error) probability provided that false alarms (type-I error) are rare, and study the tradeoff between the communication rate and maximal type-II error decay rate. We resort to rate-distortion methods to provide upper bounds to the tradeoff curve and show that at high rates lattice quantization achieves near-optimal performance. We also characterize the tradeoff for the case where nodes are allowed to record and quantize a fixed number of samples. Moreover, under sum-rate constraints, we show that an upper bound to the tradeoff curve is obtained with a water-filling solution.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2022

Social Learning under Randomized Collaborations

We study a social learning scheme where at every time instant, each agent chooses to receive information from one of its neighbors at random. We show that under this sparser communication scheme, the agents learn the truth eventually and the asymptotic convergence rate remains the same as the standard algorithms which use more communication resources. We also derive large deviation estimates of the log-belief ratios for a special case where each agent replaces its belief with that of the chosen neighbor.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2022

Hidden Markov Modeling over Graphs

This work proposes a multi-agent filtering algorithm over graphs for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs), which can be used for sequential state estimation or for tracking opinion formation over dynamic social networks. We show that the difference from the optimal centralized Bayesian solution is asymptotically bounded for geometrically ergodic transition models. Experiments illustrate the theoretical findings and in particular, demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed algorithm compared to a state-of-the-art social learning algorithm.

eess.SP↗