arXiv subjects

Mert Onur Cakiroglu

Publications and source records attributed to Mert Onur Cakiroglu.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Oracle Gaps in Reliability Coverage: Sampling Noise or Policy Specialization?

Policies trained from the same base model can appear to solve different problems. An oracle that chooses the best policy for each problem may therefore appear much stronger than any single policy. Selecting the largest estimated success rate also selects favorable sampling errors. We study this effect through reliability coverage, the fraction of problems whose success probability reaches a chosen threshold. Our first test redistributes stored correctness outcomes across policies within each problem. A second also preserves each policy's total successes, accounting for overall quality differences under a specified statistical model. For five training seeds of a seven-billion-parameter vision-language model, redistribution reproduces 0.096 of an estimated 0.113 oracle gap at threshold 0.10. Neither test finds significant evidence at this threshold. Small advantages remain unresolved. Mixtures, routers, voting, and weight averaging show no detectable improvement over their corresponding single-policy baselines. Training policies on different datasets shows little detectable specialization under light post-training, and no router gain. A stronger recipe does create it, both tests detect it, and a router gain appears only at the high thresholds where the specialists separate. In a control with predictable specialization, a router recovers about half the oracle gap. Coverage bounds explain why even a genuine oracle advantage need not yield a deployment gain. The tests assess apparent specialization from stored responses before investment in routing. Code: https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/oracle-gaps

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Certified Interface Aliases: Exact Collisions in Vision-Language Preprocessing, and When They Exist

Vision-language verifiers and routers must distinguish errors repairable by more reasoning from those caused by visual evidence never reaching the language model. This distinction lacks ground truth because annotators see full-resolution images while models receive preprocessed tensors. We introduce AliasForge to create cases where the relevant fact is provably absent from the interface. Fixed-point resampling makes the pre-rounding resize an exact integer linear map that can send nonzero integer perturbations to zero. Hiding a label-flipping perturbation there produces images with opposite step-correctness labels but bit-identical interface states. Every verifier therefore has the same output law on both members, giving pair-balanced accuracy exactly one half and zero gain from language-side repair. We prove that every fixed-point downscaler has such null vectors and bound their smallest size at the most common ratios, which rules out an 8-bit fit whenever the bound exceeds 255. From the resize configuration alone, a lattice criterion supplies realizable collisions and certifies their absence within the specified construction family. It resolves all 20 screened configurations, 17 as constructible and 3 as non-constructible. We construct certified pairs across three architectures and certify four additional processors, with zero decision-logit gap on all 18 scored pairs and none of the 18 controls. The pairs also screen routers that waste computation on re-attention or further reasoning. On natural items, per-item routing headroom exists, but no tested interface-only router improves over stopping. Our fiber ceiling bounds the headroom recoverable from the interface. Code: https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/aliasforge.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

LGQ: Learnable Geometric Quantization for Image Tokenization

Recent collapse-free quantizers such as FSQ achieve stable training by replacing the learnable codebook with an engineered geometry: a fixed scalar grid whose structure is dictated by the codebook size K. We show this trade-off is unnecessary. We introduce Learnable Geometric Quantization (LGQ), which retains a learnable codebook of codes and performs soft-to-hard assignment via temperature annealing, regularized by two cheap terms: a diversity term scaled by codebook size that penalizes concentrated batch-average usage is the primary driver of collapse resistance, complemented by a peakedness term that sharpens each token's soft-assignment toward one-hot; together they prevent codebook collapse without EMA, reset heuristics, or codebook reparameterization. Under a fixed VQ-GAN backbone, we benchmark LGQ against RotVQ, FSQ, LFQ, SimVQ, and IBQ on ImageNet 256x256 at K = 16,384, and sweep LGQ over K in {4096, ..., 65,536} without any per-K hyperparameter tuning. LGQ attains the best reconstruction FID at K = 16,384 while maintaining 100% codebook utilization, and continues to improve as the codebook grows to K = 65,536, holding 100% utilization at every K. Training MaskGIT on the frozen tokenizers, LGQ further attains the best class-conditional generation among the compared quantizers, leading on reconstruction and generation alike. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/lgq-anon-E12C/.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

When Does Retrieval Help Time-Series Forecasting?

Retrieval plug-ins supply a deep forecaster with information its lookback window cannot carry. Published evaluations report consistent gains, and each credits its own mechanism. We show that the benefit belongs instead to the operating point: the relation between window length $S$ and dominant seasonal period $L$, an axis the standard protocol never varies. Stratifying the evaluation by that relation exposes the regime. At $S{=}12$, a simple control that repeats the last observed period beats the six standard backbones, in aggregate, on four of seven benchmarks by $8\%$ to $44\%$ of MSE. It beats the strongest plug-in we run on ETTm1 and matches it on ECL. It is worse by up to $25\%$ on the three datasets whose training-split spectra lack a concentrated, shared period. A controlled synthetic sweep of horizon, period, and window shows the benefit boundary tracks the period (correlation $+0.71$), not the horizon ($-0.23$). A paired control with no phase to recover nearly erases the effect, consistent with phase starvation. Zero-shot pretraining does not escape it: a foundation model trails trained backbones by $22\%$ to $50\%$ on the periodic benchmarks. Within our instrument, exact lookup matches graph diffusion: the payoff is consulting the record, not the machinery on top. Two interpretable statistics, a trend test and a staleness rate, predict the sign of the per-cell benefit at $0.76$ accuracy under leave-one-dataset-out evaluation, a suggestive margin over the $0.69$ majority rule, where a 22-feature stack manages $0.57$. We propose no new plug-in. The contribution is the regime map, the protocol that reveals it, and two statistics that screen it before deployment. Code: https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/retrieval-regime.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Detect Early, Escalate Rarely: Anytime Detection of AI-Generated Video from the Compressed Bitstream

Detectors for AI-generated video are evaluated offline. A clip is decoded to pixels and scored once, increasingly by a large vision-language model. Detection, however, is deployed online. We recast the task as streaming perception and score the motion field the codec already wrote into the bitstream. Reading that field is a parse, not a pixel-domain forward pass. Because the running aggregate is monotone, one end-calibrated threshold is anytime-valid at the data-dependent decision time. Recalibrating at each prefix is not. Escalation is priced in closed form. A compute budget maps to a deferral window, on a frontier monotone exactly where the deferral condition holds. On matched GenVidBench the codec stage reaches full-length AUC 0.64 at five orders of magnitude less compute than a pixel CNN, on CPU. Its gate holds the stopping-time false-positive rate at target while the real data match its calibration, and drifts above it under distribution shift. Deferring 15% of clips lifts accuracy from 0.75 to 0.78 at $7\times$ less compute (paired: McNemar $p<10^{-6}$). The stage-1 ordering replicates on AIGVDBench. We introduce no new detector. The contribution is the reframing, two guarantees, and the measured frontiers. Code, configurations, and evaluation splits: https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/streamdet.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

The Spectrum Is Not Enough: When Context Helps Time-Series Forecasting

A growing family of indices scores how predictable a series is from its spectrum. Practitioners increasingly read these scores as answering a different question: whether \emph{adding context}, a longer lookback, a retrieval plug-in, or a pretrained model, will help. These are not the same question. The value of context is a property of the operating point, not of the series. Any index built from the power spectrum is invariant under phase randomization, whereas the beyond-second-order value that retrieval and foundation models supply is not, because a phase-randomized series is asymptotically Gaussian. We state this as an impossibility result and isolate it with surrogate pairs that fix the spectrum and the marginal by construction. We then give a label-free, configuration-level diagnostic, the coverage deficit, whose principal term measures beyond-spectrum structure as the gain of analog over linear prediction. On seven benchmarks the prediction holds: window-keyed retrieval's value collapses across surrogate pairs (ECL median $+33\%\!\to\!-35\%$, $p{<}10^{-40}$) while every spectral index stays frozen; a foundation model's value splits into a surviving second-order part and a small beyond-linear margin that collapses; a longer linear window's value survives. Leave-one-dataset-out, the structure term predicts the sign of beyond-spectrum value where the spectral indices trail it, and the reverse holds for the second-order mechanism. We introduce no new forecaster; the contribution is the distinction, a controlled comparison, and a diagnostic for the deployment decision. Code: https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/SINE

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Auditing Generalization in AI-Generated Video Detection: A Six-Control Protocol and the VidAudit Toolkit

AI-generated video detection benchmarks such as GenVidBench and AIGVDBench are the de facto leaderboards, yet most evaluation protocols leave uncontrolled confounds that can inflate reported generalization. As an existence proof, a three-feature clip-length classifier reaches a leave-one-generator-out (LOGO) AUC of 0.998 on GenVidBench under unaudited evaluation, while measuring nothing about motion. A 20-paper survey finds none applying all six standard controls that would catch this, so we combine them into an audited protocol and apply it to six representative feature sources (three published detectors and three repurposed signal sources), re-running it cross-dataset on AIGVDBench. The audit both debunks and certifies: the trivial classifier collapses to near chance (0.529), a CLIP baseline is caught carrying dataset identity, and the 2025 forensic detector WaveRep clears the floor at out-of-distribution LOGO AUC 0.996 with chance-level real-vs-real coherence. At a deployable FPR of 0.1%, multiple high-AUC methods fall to single-digit recall and the leaderboard order changes, so we recommend an audited tuple (AUC, above-floor margin, operating-point recall, and calibration) over a single number. As a white-box positive control, we add TemporalSpec (codec motion vectors); via cross-substrate feature fusion (XSFF), a second substrate adds genuine complementarity that survives the audit. We release VidAudit, to our knowledge the largest unified and audited detector collection for this task, providing 14 detectors behind one plugin API, a leaderboard, and Croissant metadata, available at https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/vidaudit. Together, the protocol and toolkit move evaluation from leaderboard rank toward whether a result measures what it claims.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Temporal Realism Evaluation of Generated Videos Using Compressed-Domain Motion Vectors

Temporal realism remains a central weakness of current generative video models, as most evaluation metrics prioritize spatial appearance and offer limited sensitivity to motion. We introduce a scalable, model-agnostic framework that assesses temporal behavior using motion vectors (MVs) extracted directly from compressed video streams. Codec-generated MVs from standards such as H.264 and HEVC provide lightweight, resolution-consistent descriptors of motion dynamics. We quantify realism by computing Kullback-Leibler, Jensen-Shannon, and Wasserstein divergences between MV statistics of real and generated videos. Experiments on the GenVidBench dataset containing videos from eight state-of-the-art generators reveal systematic discrepancies from real motion: entropy-based divergences rank Pika and SVD as closest to real videos, MV-sum statistics favor VC2 and Text2Video-Zero, and CogVideo shows the largest deviations across both measures. Visualizations of MV fields and class-conditional motion heatmaps further reveal center bias, sparse and piecewise constant flows, and grid-like artifacts that frame-level metrics do not capture. Beyond evaluation, we investigate MV-RGB fusion through channel concatenation, cross-attention, joint embedding, and a motion-aware fusion module. Incorporating MVs improves downstream classification across ResNet, I3D, and TSN backbones, with ResNet-18 and ResNet-34 reaching up to 97.4% accuracy and I3D achieving 99.0% accuracy on real-versus-generated discrimination. These findings demonstrate that compressed-domain MVs provide an effective temporal signal for diagnosing motion defects in generative videos and for strengthening temporal reasoning in discriminative models. The implementation is available at: https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/Motion-Vector-Learning

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Multivariate de Bruijn Graphs: A Symbolic Graph Framework for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting remains a challenging task for foundation models due to temporal heterogeneity, high dimensionality, and the lack of inherent symbolic structure. In this work, we propose DRAGON (Discrete Representation and Augmented Graph encoding Over de BruijN Graphs), a novel encoder that introduces Multivariate de Bruijn Graphs (MdBGs) to bridge the gap between symbolic representations and neural modeling. DRAGON discretizes continuous input sequences and maps them onto a fixed graph structure, enabling dynamic context recovery via graph-based attention. Integrated as an auxiliary module within a dual-branch architecture, DRAGON augments conventional CNN-based encoders with symbolic, structure-aware representations. All code developed for this study is available at: https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/MultdBG-Time-Series-Library

cs.LG↗