arXiv subjects

Meysam Alizadeh

Publications and source records attributed to Meysam Alizadeh.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

AI Coding Agents Can Reproduce Social Science Findings

Recent anecdotal evidence suggests that AI coding agents can reproduce published findings when provided with original data and code; yet systematic evaluation across social sciences remains limited. Existing evaluation benchmarks are insufficient, either small or conflate agent performance with problems in the reproduction materials themselves, such as code that fails to execute correctly. Here we introduce SocSci-Repro-Bench, a benchmark of 221 tasks spanning four disciplines and 13 substantive domains, constructed from studies whose results are either fully reproducible with available materials or demonstrably non-reproducible due to missing data, allowing us to isolate agents' reproduction capacity. Evaluating two frontier coding agents, Claude Code and Codex, we find that both can reproduce a large share of social science findings, with Claude Code substantially outperforming Codex. These reproduction rates considerably exceed those previously reported for general-purpose LLM-based agents on comparable reproducibility benchmarks. Both agents also perform strongly on a reasoning task requiring identification of underlying research questions, and additional analyses suggest that results are not primarily driven by memorization. Providing the original paper PDF alongside replication materials modestly improves performance but introduces bias on tasks where reproduction is impossible. We also show that agents can be nudged toward confirmatory specification search through subtle prompt framing. Together, these findings suggest that at least some frontier coding agents can serve as reliable executors of computational workflows while underscoring the need for careful benchmarking and prompt design as AI systems assume larger roles in scientific production.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

AI Coding Agents in Social Science: Methodologically Diverse, Empirically Consistent, Interpretively Vulnerable

The deployment of LLM-based agents in scientific analysis raises opposing concerns: that agents may reduce methodological diversity, or that they may amplify the analytic flexibility through which researchers reach motivated conclusions. We argue these worries target two empirically separable layers: a design layer of methodological choices, and a verdict layer in which a decision rule maps estimates to a substantive claim. We test both by running 20 independent executions of Claude Code and Codex on a prominent immigration and social-policy against a many-analysts human baseline. At the design layer, Codex matches human methodological diversity and Claude Code produces nearly three times as many specifications; both agents' effect estimates remain broadly aligned with the human consensus, and no agent model exactly matches any human model. A prompt-induced anti-immigration researcher prior reorganizes each agent's methodological decisions but, unlike for biased human analysts in the same data, does not shift aggregate estimates or final verdicts; nor do agents reroute along the methodological axes humans use to bias their estimates. At the verdict layer, an explicit confirmatory prompt flips Claude Code's verdicts from 10% to 90% support while leaving its coefficient distribution essentially unchanged, operating through rule omission rather than rule softening. AI agents can rival or exceed human methodological diversity at the design layer while remaining vulnerable at the verdict layer. In our setting, the locus of AI bias is not estimation but interpretation.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Unsupervised Elicitation of Moral Values from Language Models

As AI systems become pervasive, grounding their behavior in human values is critical. Prior work suggests that language models (LMs) exhibit limited inherent moral reasoning, leading to calls for explicit moral teaching. However, constructing ground truth data for moral evaluation is difficult given plural frameworks and pervasive biases. We investigate unsupervised elicitation as an alternative, asking whether pretrained (base) LMs possess intrinsic moral reasoning capability that can be surfaced without human supervision. Using the Internal Coherence Maximization (ICM) algorithm across three benchmark datasets and four LMs, we test whether ICM can reliably label moral judgments, generalize across moral frameworks, and mitigate social bias. Results show that ICM outperforms all pre-trained and chatbot baselines on the Norm Bank and ETHICS benchmarks, while fine-tuning on ICM labels performs on par with or surpasses those of human labels. Across theoretically motivated moral frameworks, ICM yields its largest relative gains on Justice and Commonsense morality. Furthermore, although chatbot LMs exhibit social bias failure rates comparable to their pretrained ones, ICM reduces such errors by more than half, with the largest improvements in race, socioeconomic status, and politics. These findings suggest that pretrained LMs possess latent moral reasoning capacities that can be elicited through unsupervised methods like ICM, providing a scalable path for AI alignment.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Web-Browsing LLMs Can Access Social Media Profiles and Infer User Demographics

Large language models (LLMs) have traditionally relied on static training data, limiting their knowledge to fixed snapshots. Recent advancements, however, have equipped LLMs with web browsing capabilities, enabling real time information retrieval and multi step reasoning over live web content. While prior studies have demonstrated LLMs ability to access and analyze websites, their capacity to directly retrieve and analyze social media data remains unexplored. Here, we evaluate whether web browsing LLMs can infer demographic attributes of social media users given only their usernames. Using a synthetic dataset of 48 X (Twitter) accounts and a survey dataset of 1,384 international participants, we show that these models can access social media content and predict user demographics with reasonable accuracy. Analysis of the synthetic dataset further reveals how LLMs parse and interpret social media profiles, which may introduce gender and political biases against accounts with minimal activity. While this capability holds promise for computational social science in the post API era, it also raises risks of misuse particularly in information operations and targeted advertising underscoring the need for safeguards. We recommend that LLM providers restrict this capability in public facing applications, while preserving controlled access for verified research purposes.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Data marketplaces can increase the willingness to share social media data at low prices

Living in the Post API age, researchers face unprecedented challenges in obtaining social media data, while users are concerned about how big tech companies use their data. Data donation offers a promising alternative, however, its scalability is limited by low participation and high dropout rates. Research suggests that data marketplaces could be a solution, but its realization remains challenging due to theoretical gaps in treating data as an asset. This paper examines whether data marketplaces can increase individuals willingness to sell their X (Twitter) data package and the minimum price they would accept. It also explores how privacy protections and the type of data buyer may affect these decisions. Results from two preregistered online survey experiments show that a data marketplace increases participants' willingness to sell their X data by 12 to 25 percentage points compared to data donation (depending on treatments), and by 6.8 points compared to onetime purchase offers. Although difference in minimum acceptable prices are not statistically significant, over 64 percentage of participants set their price within the marketplace's suggested range (0.25 to 2), substantially lower than the amounts offered in prior onetime purchase studies. Finally, in the marketplace setting, neither the type of buyer nor the inclusion of a privacy safeguard significantly influenced participants willingness to sell.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Simple Prompt Injection Attacks Can Leak Personal Data Observed by LLM Agents During Task Execution

Previous benchmarks on prompt injection in large language models (LLMs) have primarily focused on generic tasks and attacks, offering limited insights into more complex threats like data exfiltration. This paper examines how prompt injection can cause tool-calling agents to leak personal data observed during task execution. Using a fictitious banking agent, we develop data flow-based attacks and integrate them into AgentDojo, a recent benchmark for agentic security. To enhance its scope, we also create a richer synthetic dataset of human-AI banking conversations. In 16 user tasks from AgentDojo, LLMs show a 15-50 percentage point drop in utility under attack, with average attack success rates (ASR) around 20 percent; some defenses reduce ASR to zero. Most LLMs, even when successfully tricked by the attack, avoid leaking highly sensitive data like passwords, likely due to safety alignments, but they remain vulnerable to disclosing other personal data. The likelihood of password leakage increases when a password is requested along with one or two additional personal details. In an extended evaluation across 48 tasks, the average ASR is around 15 percent, with no built-in AgentDojo defense fully preventing leakage. Tasks involving data extraction or authorization workflows, which closely resemble the structure of exfiltration attacks, exhibit the highest ASRs, highlighting the interaction between task type, agent performance, and defense efficacy.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2024

Exploring Relationships Between Cryptocurrency News Outlets and Influencers' Twitter Activity and Market Prices

Academics increasingly acknowledge the predictive power of social media for a wide variety of events and, more specifically, for financial markets. Anecdotal and empirical findings show that cryptocurrencies are among the financial assets that have been affected by news and influencers' activities on Twitter. However, the extent to which Twitter crypto influencer's posts about trading signals and their effect on market prices is mostly unexplored. In this paper, we use LLMs to uncover buy and not-buy signals from influencers and news outlets' Twitter posts and use a VAR analysis with Granger Causality tests and cross-correlation analysis to understand how these trading signals are temporally correlated with the top nine major cryptocurrencies' prices. Overall, the results show a mixed pattern across cryptocurrencies and temporal periods. However, we found that for the top three cryptocurrencies with the highest presence within news and influencer posts, their aggregated LLM-detected trading signal over the preceding 24 hours granger-causes fluctuations in their market prices, exhibiting a lag of at least 6 hours. In addition, the results reveal fundamental differences in how influencers and news outlets cover cryptocurrencies.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Open-Source LLMs for Text Annotation: A Practical Guide for Model Setting and Fine-Tuning

This paper studies the performance of open-source Large Language Models (LLMs) in text classification tasks typical for political science research. By examining tasks like stance, topic, and relevance classification, we aim to guide scholars in making informed decisions about their use of LLMs for text analysis. Specifically, we conduct an assessment of both zero-shot and fine-tuned LLMs across a range of text annotation tasks using news articles and tweets datasets. Our analysis shows that fine-tuning improves the performance of open-source LLMs, allowing them to match or even surpass zero-shot GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, though still lagging behind fine-tuned GPT-3.5. We further establish that fine-tuning is preferable to few-shot training with a relatively modest quantity of annotated text. Our findings show that fine-tuned open-source LLMs can be effectively deployed in a broad spectrum of text annotation applications. We provide a Python notebook facilitating the application of LLMs in text annotation for other researchers.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Comparing Methods for Creating a National Random Sample of Twitter Users

Twitter data has been widely used by researchers across various social and computer science disciplines. A common aim when working with Twitter data is the construction of a random sample of users from a given country. However, while several methods have been proposed in the literature, their comparative performance is mostly unexplored. In this paper, we implement four common methods to collect a random sample of Twitter users in the US: 1% Stream, Bounding Box, Location Query, and Language Query. Then, we compare the methods according to their tweet- and user-level metrics as well as their accuracy in estimating US population with and without using inclusion probabilities of various demographics. Our results show that the 1% Stream method performs differently than others in tweet- and user-level metrics, and best for the construction of a population representative sample. We discuss the conditions under which the 1% Stream method may not be suitable and suggest the Bounding Box method as the second-best method to use.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

ChatGPT Outperforms Crowd-Workers for Text-Annotation Tasks

Many NLP applications require manual data annotations for a variety of tasks, notably to train classifiers or evaluate the performance of unsupervised models. Depending on the size and degree of complexity, the tasks may be conducted by crowd-workers on platforms such as MTurk as well as trained annotators, such as research assistants. Using a sample of 2,382 tweets, we demonstrate that ChatGPT outperforms crowd-workers for several annotation tasks, including relevance, stance, topics, and frames detection. Specifically, the zero-shot accuracy of ChatGPT exceeds that of crowd-workers for four out of five tasks, while ChatGPT's intercoder agreement exceeds that of both crowd-workers and trained annotators for all tasks. Moreover, the per-annotation cost of ChatGPT is less than $0.003 -- about twenty times cheaper than MTurk. These results show the potential of large language models to drastically increase the efficiency of text classification.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2017

Psychological and Personality Profiles of Political Extremists

Global recruitment into radical Islamic movements has spurred renewed interest in the appeal of political extremism. Is the appeal a rational response to material conditions or is it the expression of psychological and personality disorders associated with aggressive behavior, intolerance, conspiratorial imagination, and paranoia? Empirical answers using surveys have been limited by lack of access to extremist groups, while field studies have lacked psychological measures and failed to compare extremists with contrast groups. We revisit the debate over the appeal of extremism in the U.S. context by comparing publicly available Twitter messages written by over 355,000 political extremist followers with messages written by non-extremist U.S. users. Analysis of text-based psychological indicators supports the moral foundation theory which identifies emotion as a critical factor in determining political orientation of individuals. Extremist followers also differ from others in four of the Big Five personality traits.

cs.CL↗