arXiv subjects

Mi Feng

Publications and source records attributed to Mi Feng.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

When is vaccine prioritization worth optimizing?

Optimizing vaccine prioritization is often treated as the default policy response when vaccine supply is limited. Yet optimized prioritization carries administrative, ethical and communication costs, motivating an upstream question: whether differences among vaccine allocations can alter epidemic outcomes enough to make optimization epidemiologically necessary. We show that optimization is not always worth pursuing: in some regimes, vaccination markedly reduces epidemic burden, but many feasible allocation rules perform almost equally well, making the necessity of optimization low. We quantify this necessity as the range of epidemic outcomes generated by different allocations under fixed supply and show that it is governed by competition between vaccinating high-contact groups to slow transmission and vaccinating groups that benefit most directly: necessity is low when these protection routes are balanced and high when one dominates. Increasing transmission intensity changes this balance and drives a transition in the optimal allocation from transmission-focused prioritization toward direct protection. Different prevention objectives exhibit distinct transition thresholds, creating regimes in which optimizing one objective substantially compromises another, thereby revealing when the choice of prevention target matters most. This framework reframes vaccine prioritization as a prior decision problem, identifying when optimization is warranted, when simpler rules suffice, and when prevention goals conflict.

physics.bio-ph↗

arXiv2025

Dynamic Vaccine Prioritization via Non-Markovian Final-state Optimization

Effective vaccine prioritization is critical for epidemic control, yet real outbreaks exhibit memory effects that inflate state space and make long-term prediction and optimization challenging. As a result, many strategies are tuned to short-term objectives and overlook how vaccinating certain individuals indirectly protects others. We develop a general age-stratified non-Markovian epidemic model that captures memory dynamics and accommodates diverse epidemic models within one framework via state aggregation. Building on this, we map non-Markovian final states to an equivalent Markovian representation, enabling real-time fast direct prediction of long-term epidemic outcomes under vaccination. Leveraging this mapping, we design a dynamic prioritization strategy that continually allocates doses to minimize the predicted long-term final epidemic burden, explicitly balancing indirect transmission blocking with the direct protection of important groups and outperforming static policies and those short-term heuristics that target only immediate direct effects. We further uncover the underlying mechanism that drives shifts in vaccine prioritization as the epidemic progresses and coverage accumulates, underscoring the importance of adaptive allocations. This study renders long-term prediction tractable in systems with memory and provides actionable guidance for optimal vaccine deployment.

physics.bio-ph↗

arXiv2023

Validity of Markovian modeling for transient memory-dependent epidemic dynamics

The initial transient phase of an emerging epidemic is of critical importance for data-driven model building, model-based prediction of the epidemic trend, and articulation of control/prevention strategies. In principle, quantitative models for real-world epidemics need to be memory-dependent or non-Markovian, but this presents difficulties for data collection, parameter estimation, computation and analyses. In contrast, the difficulties do not arise in the traditional Markovian models. To uncover the conditions under which Markovian and non-Markovian models are equivalent for transient epidemic dynamics is outstanding and of significant current interest. We develop a comprehensive computational and analytic framework to establish that the transient-state equivalence holds when the average generation time matches and average removal time, resulting in minimal Markovian estimation errors in the basic reproduction number, epidemic forecasting, and evaluation of control strategy. Strikingly, the errors depend on the generation-to-removal time ratio but not on the specific values and distributions of these times, and this universality will further facilitate estimation rectification. Overall, our study provides a general criterion for modeling memory-dependent processes using the Markovian frameworks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

The Risks of Ranking: Revisiting Graphical Perception to Model Individual Differences in Visualization Performance

Graphical perception studies typically measure visualization encoding effectiveness using the error of an "average observer", leading to canonical rankings of encodings for numerical attributes: e.g., position > area > angle > volume. Yet different people may vary in their ability to read different visualization types, leading to variance in this ranking across individuals not captured by population-level metrics using "average observer" models. One way we can bridge this gap is by recasting classic visual perception tasks as tools for assessing individual performance, in addition to overall visualization performance. In this paper we replicate and extend Cleveland and McGill's graphical comparison experiment using Bayesian multilevel regression, using these models to explore individual differences in visualization skill from multiple perspectives. The results from experiments and modeling indicate that some people show patterns of accuracy that credibly deviate from the canonical rankings of visualization effectiveness. We discuss implications of these findings, such as a need for new ways to communicate visualization effectiveness to designers, how patterns in individuals' responses may show systematic biases and strategies in visualization judgment, and how recasting classic visual perception tasks as tools for assessing individual performance may offer new ways to quantify aspects of visualization literacy. Experiment data, source code, and analysis scripts are available at the following repository: https://osf.io/8ub7t/?view\_only=9be4798797404a4397be3c6fc2a68cc0.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2020

Palettailor: Discriminable Colorization for Categorical Data

We present an integrated approach for creating and assigning color palettes to different visualizations such as multi-class scatterplots, line, and bar charts. While other methods separate the creation of colors from their assignment, our approach takes data characteristics into account to produce color palettes, which are then assigned in a way that fosters better visual discrimination of classes. To do so, we use a customized optimization based on simulated annealing to maximize the combination of three carefully designed color scoring functions: point distinctness, name difference, and color discrimination. We compare our approach to state-ofthe-art palettes with a controlled user study for scatterplots and line charts, furthermore we performed a case study. Our results show that Palettailor, as a fully-automated approach, generates color palettes with a higher discrimination quality than existing approaches. The efficiency of our optimization allows us also to incorporate user modifications into the color selection process.

cs.GR↗

arXiv2019

Non-Markovian recovery makes complex networks more resilient against large-scale failures

Non-Markovian spontaneous recovery processes with a time delay (memory) are ubiquitous in the real world. How does the non-Markovian characteristic affect failure propagation in complex networks? We consider failures due to internal causes at the nodal level and external failures due to an adverse environment, and develop a pair approximation analysis taking into account the two-node correlation. In general, a high failure stationary state can arise, corresponding to large-scale failures that can significantly compromise the functioning of the network. We uncover a striking phenomenon: memory associated with nodal recovery can counter-intuitively make the network more resilient against large-scale failures. In natural systems, the intrinsic non-Markovian characteristic of nodal recovery may thus be one reason for their resilience. In engineering design, incorporating certain non-Markovian features into the network may be beneficial to equipping it with a strong resilient capability to resist catastrophic failures.

physics.soc-ph↗