arXiv subjects

Michael A. Mischna

Publications and source records attributed to Michael A. Mischna.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Atmospheric dynamics of IR-active particles released from Mars' surface

Surface release of radiatively active particles, with high infrared- (IR-)to-visible extinction ratios, has been proposed as a method of warming Mars. However, to warm Mars using aerosols, particles released locally must disperse globally. Here we provide an initial reference study in a plume tracking, dry Martian atmospheric model to address this question. The winds that transport aerosols respond to the aerosol's IR forcing, implying strong radiative-dynamical feedbacks (RDF). We investigate RDF from surface release of two particle compositions: carbon (graphene) and metal (Al). Self-lofting helps particles rise and spread locally and regionally, and the Hadley cell strengthens under warming, aiding latitudinal mixing. Within our model, Mars RDF enable engineered-aerosol warming. Warming is slightly greater for three-dimensional vs. 1D-models and also depends on spectral resolution of radiative transfer. We assess implications for Mars warming. Many open atmospheric science questions remain, including the role of agglomeration, dry-deposition rate uncertainty, and modeling water cycle feedbacks.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Modelling the long-term impacts of artificial warming on the Martian water cycle and surface ice distribution

Recent papers by Ansari et al. (2024, Science Advances 10, eadn4650) and Richardson et al. (2025, arXiv eprint 2504.01455) have suggested that global warming of the Martian surface ('terraforming') by 35 K to sustain local habitats above the melting point of water could be achieved through the injection of engineered aerosols into the Martian atmosphere. Using the MarsWRF 3D Global Climate Model, we investigate how artificial warming of Mars through engineered aerosol release would affect the planetary water cycle and the distribution of the major surface ice reservoirs. Within our model framework, every 20 K of global warming induces a tenfold increase in atmospheric water vapour content due to sublimation of H2O ice from the North Polar Cap. This increases the potency of cloud radiative feedbacks which induces nighttime warming (~5-10 K) at low latitudes, but daytime cooling (up to 40 K) in the winter midlatitudes. Water is transferred from the edge of the North Polar Cap to the South Polar Cap and there is minor destabilisation of shallow northern midlatitude subsurface ice. As a result, seasonal sublimation of H2O ice from the South Pole has an increased impact on the global water cycle. These changes persist on Mars at least decades after loading of the atmosphere with engineered aerosols ceases. Our model is limited by the gaps in our knowledge of present-day Martian weather and climate, and of the microphysics and radiative properties of candidate warming agents. Much more data is therefore needed before warming Mars could become feasible.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Why are Mountaintops Cold? The Transition of Surface Lapse Rate on Dry Planets

Understanding surface temperature is important for habitability. Recent work on Mars has found that the dependence of surface temperature on elevation (surface lapse rate) converges to zero in the limit of a thin CO2 atmosphere. However, the mechanisms that control the surface lapse rate are still not fully understood. It remains unclear how the surface lapse rate depends on both greenhouse effect and surface pressure. Here, we use climate models to study when and why "mountaintops are cold". We find the tropical surface lapse rate increases with the greenhouse effect and with surface pressure. The greenhouse effect dominates the surface lapse rate transition and is robust across latitudes. The pressure effect is important at low latitudes in moderately opaque atmospheres. A simple model provides insights into the mechanisms of the transition. Our results suggest that topographic cold-trapping may be important for the climate of arid planets.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

Changing spatial distribution of water flow charts major change in Mars' greenhouse effect

Early Mars had rivers, but the cause of Mars' wet-to-dry transition remains unknown. Past climate on Mars can be probed using the spatial distribution of climate-sensitive landforms. We analyzed global databases of water-worked landforms and identified changes in the spatial distribution of rivers over time. These changes are simply explained by comparison to a simplified meltwater model driven by an ensemble of global climate model simulations, as the result of $\gtrsim$10 K global cooling, from global average surface temperature (T) $\ge$ 268 K to T $\sim$ 258 K, due to a weaker greenhouse effect. In other words, river-forming climates on Early Mars were warm and wet first, and cold and wet later. Surprisingly, analysis of the greenhouse effect within our ensemble of global climate model simulations suggests that this shift was primarily driven by waning non-CO2 radiative forcing, and not changes in CO2 radiative forcing.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2019

Methane release on Early Mars by atmospheric collapse and atmospheric reinflation

A candidate explanation for Early Mars rivers is atmospheric warming due to surface release of H$_2$ or CH$_4$ gas. However, it remains unknown how much gas could be released in a single event. We model the CH$_4$ release by one mechanism for rapid release of CH$_4$ from clathrate. By modeling how CH$_4$-clathrate release is affected by changes in Mars' obliquity and atmospheric composition, we find that a large fraction of total outgassing from CH$_4$ clathrate occurs following Mars' first prolonged atmospheric collapse. This atmosphere-collapse-initiated CH$_4$-release mechanism has three stages. (1) Rapid collapse of Early Mars' carbon dioxide atmosphere initiates a slower shift of water ice from high ground to the poles. (2) Upon subsequent CO$_2$-atmosphere re-inflation and CO$_2$-greenhouse warming, low-latitude clathrate decomposes and releases methane gas. (3) Methane can then perturb atmospheric chemistry and surface temperature, until photochemical processes destroy the methane. Within our model, we find that under some circumstances a Titan-like haze layer would be expected to form, consistent with transient deposition of abundant complex abiotic organic matter on the Early Mars surface. We also find that this CH$_4$-release mechanism can warm Early Mars, but special circumstances are required in order to uncork 10$^{17}$ kg of CH$_4$, the minimum needed for strong warming. Specifically, strong warming only occurs when the fraction of the hydrate stability zone that is initially occupied by clathrate exceeds 10%, and when Mars' first prolonged atmospheric collapse occurs for atmospheric pressure > 1 bar.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2018

Methane bursts as a trigger for intermittent lake-forming climates on post-Noachian Mars

Lakes existed on Mars later than 3.6 billion years ago, according to sedimentary evidence for deltaic deposition. The observed fluvio-lacustrine deposits suggest that individual lake-forming climates persisted for at least several thousand years (assuming dilute flow). But the lake watersheds' little weathered soils indicate a largely dry climate history, with intermittent runoff events. Here we show that these observational constraints, while inconsistent with many previously-proposed triggers for lake-forming climates, are consistent with a methane burst scenario. In this scenario, chaotic transitions in mean obliquity drive latitudinal shifts in temperature and ice loading that destabilize methane clathrate. Using numerical simulations, we find that outgassed methane can build up to atmospheric levels sufficient for lake forming climates, for past clathrate hydrate stability zone occupancy fractions >0.04. Such occupancy fractions are consistent with methane production by water-rock reactions due to hydrothermal circulation on early Mars. We further estimate that photochemical destruction of atmospheric methane curtails the duration of individual lake-forming climates to less than a million years, consistent with observations. We conclude that methane bursts represent a potential pathway for intermittent excursions to a warm, wet climate state on early Mars.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2018

Effect of Mars Atmospheric Loss on Snow Melt Potential in a 3.5-Gyr Mars Climate Evolution Model

Post-Noachian Martian paleochannels indicate the existence of liquid water on the surface of Mars after about 3.5 Gya (Irwin et al., 2015; Palucis et al., 2016). In order to explore the effects of variations in CO$_{2}$ partial pressure and obliquity on the possibility of surface water, we created a zero-dimensional surface energy balance model. We combine this model with physically consistent orbital histories to track conditions over the last 3.5 Gyr of Martian history. We find that melting is allowed for atmospheric pressures corresponding to exponential loss rates of $dP/dt \propto t^{-3.73}$ or faster, but this rate is within $0.5 σ$ of the rate calculated from initial measurements made by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission, if we assume all the escaping oxygen measured by MAVEN comes from atmospheric CO$_{2}$ (Lillis et al., 2017; Tu et al., 2015). Melting at this loss rate matches selected key geologic constraints on the formation of Hesperian river networks, assuming optimal melt conditions during the warmest part of each Mars year (Irwin et al., 2015; Stopar et al., 2006; Kite et al., 2017a,b). The atmospheric pressure has a larger effect on the surface energy than changes in Mars's mean obliquity. These results show that initial measurements of atmosphere loss by MAVEN are consistent with atmospheric loss being the dominant process that switched Mars from a melt-permitting to a melt-absent climate (Jakosky et al., 2017), but non-CO$_{2}$ warming will be required if $<2$ Gya paleochannels are confirmed, or if most of the escaping oxygen measured by MAVEN comes from H$_{2}$O.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2016

Orbit-spin coupling and the interannual variability of global-scale dust storm occurrence on Mars

A new physical hypothesis predicts that a weak coupling of the orbital and rotational motions of extended bodies may give rise to a modulation of circulatory flows within their atmospheres. Driven cycles of intensification and relaxation of large-scale circulatory flows are predicted, with the phasing of these changes linked directly to the rate of change of the orbital angular momentum with respect to inertial frames. We test the hypothesis that global-scale dust storms (GDS) on Mars may occur when periods of circulatory intensification (associated with positive and negative extrema of the waveform) coincide with the southern summer dust storm season on Mars. The orbit-spin coupling hypothesis additionally predicts that the intervening transitional periods, which are characterized by the disappearance and subsequent sign change of this waveform, may be unfavorable for the occurrence of GDS, when they occur during the southern summer dust storm season. These hypotheses are confirmed through comparisons between calculated dynamical time series of the time rate of change of orbital angular momentum and historic observations. All of the nine known global-scale dust storms on Mars took place during Mars years when circulatory intensification during the dust storm season is predicted under the orbit-spin coupling hypothesis. No historic global-scale dust storms were recorded during transitional intervals. Orbit-spin coupling accelerations evidently contribute to the interannual variability of the Mars atmosphere.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2016

Numerical Modeling of Orbit-Spin Coupling Accelerations in a Mars General Circulation Model: Implications for Global Dust Storm Activity

We employ the MarsWRF general circulation model (GCM) to test the predictions of a new physical hypothesis: a weak coupling of the orbital and rotational angular momenta of extended bodies is predicted to give rise to cycles of intensification and relaxation of circulatory flows within atmospheres. The dynamical core of the GCM has been modified to include the orbit-spin coupling accelerations due to solar system dynamics for the years 1920-2030. The modified GCM is first subjected to extensive testing and validation. We compare forced and unforced model outcomes for large-scale zonal and meridional flows, and for near-surface wind velocities and surface wind stresses. The predicted cycles of circulatory intensification and relaxation within the modified GCM are observed. Most remarkably, the modified GCM reproduces conditions favorable for the occurrence of perihelion-season global-scale dust storms on Mars in years in which such storms were observed. A strengthening of the meridional overturning (Hadley) circulation during the dust storm season occurs in the GCM in all previously known years with perihelion-season global-scale dust storms. The increased upwelling produced in the southern hemisphere in southern summer may facilitate the transport of dust to high altitudes in the Mars atmosphere during the dust storm season, where radiative heating may further strengthen the circulation. Significantly increased surface winds and surface wind stresses are also obtained. These may locally facilitate saltation and dust lifting from the surface. The numerical simulations constitute proof of concept for the orbit-spin coupling hypothesis under evaluation.

astro-ph.EP↗