arXiv subjects

Michael A. Osborne

Publications and source records attributed to Michael A. Osborne.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Scalable Valuation of Human Feedback through Provably Robust Model Alignment

Despite the importance of aligning language models with human preferences, crowd-sourced human feedback is often noisy -- for example, preferring less desirable responses -- posing a fundamental challenge to alignment. A truly robust alignment objective should yield identical model parameters even under severe label noise, a property known as redescending. We prove that no existing alignment methods satisfy this property. To address this, we propose Hölder-DPO, the first principled alignment loss with a provable redescending property, enabling estimation of the clean data distribution from noisy feedback. The aligned model estimates the likelihood of clean data, providing a theoretically grounded metric for dataset valuation that identifies the location and fraction of mislabels. This metric is gradient-free, enabling scalable and automated human feedback valuation without costly manual verification or clean validation dataset. Hölder-DPO achieves state-of-the-art robust alignment performance while accurately detecting mislabels in controlled datasets. Finally, applied to Anthropic HH-RLHF dataset, it reveals substantial noise levels and removing these mislabels significantly improves alignment performance across methods. The code is available at https://github.com/ma921/HolderDPO.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Just One Layer Norm Guarantees Stable Extrapolation

In spite of their prevalence, the behaviour of Neural Networks when extrapolating far from the training distribution remains poorly understood, with existing results limited to specific cases. In this work, we prove general results -- the first of their kind -- by applying Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) theory to analyse infinitely-wide neural networks trained until convergence and prove that the inclusion of just one Layer Norm (LN) fundamentally alters the induced NTK, transforming it into a bounded-variance kernel. As a result, the output of an infinitely wide network with at least one LN remains bounded, even on inputs far from the training data. In contrast, we show that a broad class of networks without LN can produce pathologically large outputs for certain inputs. We support these theoretical findings with empirical experiments on finite-width networks, demonstrating that while standard NNs often exhibit uncontrolled growth outside the training domain, a single LN layer effectively mitigates this instability. Finally, we explore real-world implications of this extrapolatory stability, including applications to predicting residue sizes in proteins larger than those seen during training and estimating age from facial images of underrepresented ethnicities absent from the training set.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

PAC Apprenticeship Learning with Bayesian Active Inverse Reinforcement Learning

As AI systems become increasingly autonomous, reliably aligning their decision-making with human preferences is essential. Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) offers a promising approach to infer preferences from demonstrations. These preferences can then be used to produce an apprentice policy that performs well on the demonstrated task. However, in domains like autonomous driving or robotics, where errors can have serious consequences, we need not just good average performance but reliable policies with formal guarantees -- yet obtaining sufficient human demonstrations for reliability guarantees can be costly. Active IRL addresses this challenge by strategically selecting the most informative scenarios for human demonstration. We introduce PAC-EIG, an information-theoretic acquisition function that directly targets probably-approximately-correct (PAC) guarantees for the learned policy -- providing the first such theoretical guarantee for active IRL with noisy expert demonstrations. Our method maximises information gain about the regret of the apprentice policy, efficiently identifying states requiring further demonstration. We also present Reward-EIG as an alternative when learning the reward itself is the primary objective. Focusing on finite state-action spaces, we prove convergence bounds, illustrate failure modes of prior heuristic methods, and demonstrate our method's advantages experimentally.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Natural Evolutionary Search meets Probabilistic Numerics

Zeroth-order local optimisation algorithms are essential for solving real-valued black-box optimisation problems. Among these, Natural Evolution Strategies (NES) represent a prominent class, particularly well-suited for scenarios where prior distributions are available. By optimising the objective function in the space of search distributions, NES algorithms naturally integrate prior knowledge during initialisation, making them effective in settings such as semi-supervised learning and user-prior belief frameworks. However, due to their reliance on random sampling and Monte Carlo estimates, NES algorithms can suffer from limited sample efficiency. In this paper, we introduce a novel class of algorithms, termed Probabilistic Natural Evolutionary Strategy Algorithms (ProbNES), which enhance the NES framework with Bayesian quadrature. We show that ProbNES algorithms consistently outperforms their non-probabilistic counterparts as well as global sample efficient methods such as Bayesian Optimisation (BO) or $π$BO across a wide range of tasks, including benchmark test functions, data-driven optimisation tasks, user-informed hyperparameter tuning tasks and locomotion tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

BASIL: Fast broadband line-rich spectral-cube fitting and image visualization via Bayesian quadrature

Mapping the spatial distributions and abundances of complex organic molecules in hot cores and hot corinos is crucial for understanding the astrochemical pathways and the inheritance of prebiotic material by nascent planetary systems. However, the line-rich spectra from these sources pose significant challenges for robustly fitting molecular parameters due to severe line blending and unidentified lines. We present an efficient framework, Bayesian Active Spectral-cube Inference and Learning (BASIL), for estimating molecular parameter maps for hundreds of molecules based on the local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) model, applied to wideband spectral datacubes of line-rich sources. We adopted stochastic variational inference to infer molecular parameters from spectra at individual positions, balancing between fitting accuracy and computational speed. For obtaining parameter maps, instead of querying every location or pixel, we introduced an active learning framework based on Bayesian quadrature and its parallelization. Specifically, we assessed and selected the locations or pixels of spectrum that are most informative for estimating the entire set of parameter maps by training a Gaussian processes model. By greedily selecting locations with maximum information gain, we achieve sublinear convergence. We benchmarked BASIL on a large synthetic datacube and demonstrated that it produces accurate 468 molecular parameter maps from 117 molecules within ~180 hours, orders of magnitude faster than traditional pixel-by-pixel fitting using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, with visually reliable results emerging in just ~20 hours. Additional training iterations provide progressively more accurate results. This quick visualization meets the demands of big data in modern astronomical surveys.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Meta-learning characteristics and dynamics of quantum systems

While machine learning holds great promise for quantum technologies, most current methods focus on predicting or controlling a specific quantum system. Meta-learning approaches, however, can adapt to new systems for which little data is available, by leveraging knowledge obtained from previous data associated with similar systems. In this paper, we meta-learn dynamics and characteristics of closed and open two-level systems, as well as the Heisenberg model. Based on experimental data of a Loss-DiVincenzo spin-qubit hosted in a Ge/Si core/shell nanowire for different gate voltage configurations, we predict qubit characteristics i.e. $g$-factor and Rabi frequency using meta-learning. The algorithm we introduce improves upon previous state-of-the-art meta-learning methods for physics-based systems by introducing novel techniques such as adaptive learning rates and a global optimizer for improved robustness and increased computational efficiency. We benchmark our method against other meta-learning methods, a vanilla transformer, and a multilayer perceptron, and demonstrate improved performance.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2025

Position: Ensuring mutual privacy is necessary for effective external evaluation of proprietary AI systems

The external evaluation of AI systems is increasingly recognised as a crucial approach for understanding their potential risks. However, facilitating external evaluation in practice faces significant challenges in balancing evaluators' need for system access with AI developers' privacy and security concerns. Additionally, evaluators have reason to protect their own privacy - for example, in order to maintain the integrity of held-out test sets. We refer to the challenge of ensuring both developers' and evaluators' privacy as one of providing mutual privacy. In this position paper, we argue that (i) addressing this mutual privacy challenge is essential for effective external evaluation of AI systems, and (ii) current methods for facilitating external evaluation inadequately address this challenge, particularly when it comes to preserving evaluators' privacy. In making these arguments, we formalise the mutual privacy problem; examine the privacy and access requirements of both model owners and evaluators; and explore potential solutions to this challenge, including through the application of cryptographic and hardware-based approaches.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Time-Varying Gaussian Process Bandits with Unknown Prior

Bayesian optimisation requires fitting a Gaussian process model, which in turn requires specifying prior on the unknown black-box function -- most of the theoretical literature assumes this prior is known. However, it is common to have more than one possible prior for a given black-box function, for example suggested by domain experts with differing opinions. In some cases, the type-II maximum likelihood estimator for selecting prior enjoys the consistency guarantee, but it does not universally apply to all types of priors. If the problem is stationary, one could rely on the Regret Balancing scheme to conduct the optimisation, but in the case of time-varying problems, such a scheme cannot be used. To address this gap in existing research, we propose a novel algorithm, PE-GP-UCB, which is capable of solving time-varying Bayesian optimisation problems even without the exact knowledge of the function's prior. The algorithm relies on the fact that either the observed function values are consistent with some of the priors, in which case it is easy to reject the wrong priors, or the observations are consistent with all candidate priors, in which case it does not matter which prior our model relies on. We provide a regret bound on the proposed algorithm. Finally, we empirically evaluate our algorithm on toy and real-world time-varying problems and show that it outperforms the maximum likelihood estimator, fully Bayesian treatment of unknown prior and Regret Balancing.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Bayesian Optimization for Building Social-Influence-Free Consensus

We introduce Social Bayesian Optimization (SBO), a vote-efficient algorithm for consensus-building in collective decision-making. In contrast to single-agent scenarios, collective decision-making encompasses group dynamics that may distort agents' preference feedback, thereby impeding their capacity to achieve a social-influence-free consensus -- the most preferable decision based on the aggregated agent utilities. We demonstrate that under mild rationality axioms, reaching social-influence-free consensus using noisy feedback alone is impossible. To address this, SBO employs a dual voting system: cheap but noisy public votes (e.g., show of hands in a meeting), and more accurate, though expensive, private votes (e.g., one-to-one interview). We model social influence using an unknown social graph and leverage the dual voting system to efficiently learn this graph. Our theoretical findigns show that social graph estimation converges faster than the black-box estimation of agents' utilities, allowing us to reduce reliance on costly private votes early in the process. This enables efficient consensus-building primarily through noisy public votes, which are debiased based on the estimated social graph to infer social-influence-free feedback. We validate the efficacy of SBO across multiple real-world applications, including thermal comfort, team building, travel negotiation, and energy trading collaboration.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2024

Learning to Forget: Bayesian Time Series Forecasting using Recurrent Sparse Spectrum Signature Gaussian Processes

The signature kernel is a kernel between time series of arbitrary length and comes with strong theoretical guarantees from stochastic analysis. It has found applications in machine learning such as covariance functions for Gaussian processes. A strength of the underlying signature features is that they provide a structured global description of a time series. However, this property can quickly become a curse when local information is essential and forgetting is required; so far this has only been addressed with ad-hoc methods such as slicing the time series into subsegments. To overcome this, we propose a principled, data-driven approach by introducing a novel forgetting mechanism for signatures. This allows the model to dynamically adapt its context length to focus on more recent information. To achieve this, we revisit the recently introduced Random Fourier Signature Features, and develop Random Fourier Decayed Signature Features (RFDSF) with Gaussian processes (GPs). This results in a Bayesian time series forecasting algorithm with variational inference, that offers a scalable probabilistic algorithm that processes and transforms a time series into a joint predictive distribution over time steps in one pass using recurrence. For example, processing a sequence of length $10^4$ steps in $\approx 10^{-2}$ seconds and in $< 1\text{GB}$ of GPU memory. We demonstrate that it outperforms other GP-based alternatives and competes with state-of-the-art probabilistic time series forecasting algorithms.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Bayesian Optimisation with Unknown Hyperparameters: Regret Bounds Logarithmically Closer to Optimal

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is widely used for optimising black-box functions but requires us to specify the length scale hyperparameter, which defines the smoothness of the functions the optimizer will consider. Most current BO algorithms choose this hyperparameter by maximizing the marginal likelihood of the observed data, albeit risking misspecification if the objective function is less smooth in regions we have not yet explored. The only prior solution addressing this problem with theoretical guarantees was A-GP-UCB, proposed by Berkenkamp et al. (2019). This algorithm progressively decreases the length scale, expanding the class of functions considered by the optimizer. However, A-GP-UCB lacks a stopping mechanism, leading to over-exploration and slow convergence. To overcome this, we introduce Length scale Balancing (LB) - a novel approach, aggregating multiple base surrogate models with varying length scales. LB intermittently adds smaller length scale candidate values while retaining longer scales, balancing exploration and exploitation. We formally derive a cumulative regret bound of LB and compare it with the regret of an oracle BO algorithm using the optimal length scale. Denoting the factor by which the regret bound of A-GP-UCB was away from oracle as $g(T)$, we show that LB is only $\log g(T)$ away from oracle regret. We also empirically evaluate our algorithm on synthetic and real-world benchmarks and show it outperforms A-GP-UCB, maximum likelihood estimation and MCMC.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Principled Bayesian Optimisation in Collaboration with Human Experts

Bayesian optimisation for real-world problems is often performed interactively with human experts, and integrating their domain knowledge is key to accelerate the optimisation process. We consider a setup where experts provide advice on the next query point through binary accept/reject recommendations (labels). Experts' labels are often costly, requiring efficient use of their efforts, and can at the same time be unreliable, requiring careful adjustment of the degree to which any expert is trusted. We introduce the first principled approach that provides two key guarantees. (1) Handover guarantee: similar to a no-regret property, we establish a sublinear bound on the cumulative number of experts' binary labels. Initially, multiple labels per query are needed, but the number of expert labels required asymptotically converges to zero, saving both expert effort and computation time. (2) No-harm guarantee with data-driven trust level adjustment: our adaptive trust level ensures that the convergence rate will not be worse than the one without using advice, even if the advice from experts is adversarial. Unlike existing methods that employ a user-defined function that hand-tunes the trust level adjustment, our approach enables data-driven adjustments. Real-world applications empirically demonstrate that our method not only outperforms existing baselines, but also maintains robustness despite varying labelling accuracy, in tasks of battery design with human experts.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Position: Bayesian Deep Learning is Needed in the Age of Large-Scale AI

In the current landscape of deep learning research, there is a predominant emphasis on achieving high predictive accuracy in supervised tasks involving large image and language datasets. However, a broader perspective reveals a multitude of overlooked metrics, tasks, and data types, such as uncertainty, active and continual learning, and scientific data, that demand attention. Bayesian deep learning (BDL) constitutes a promising avenue, offering advantages across these diverse settings. This paper posits that BDL can elevate the capabilities of deep learning. It revisits the strengths of BDL, acknowledges existing challenges, and highlights some exciting research avenues aimed at addressing these obstacles. Looking ahead, the discussion focuses on possible ways to combine large-scale foundation models with BDL to unlock their full potential.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Walking the Values in Bayesian Inverse Reinforcement Learning

The goal of Bayesian inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) is recovering a posterior distribution over reward functions using a set of demonstrations from an expert optimizing for a reward unknown to the learner. The resulting posterior over rewards can then be used to synthesize an apprentice policy that performs well on the same or a similar task. A key challenge in Bayesian IRL is bridging the computational gap between the hypothesis space of possible rewards and the likelihood, often defined in terms of Q values: vanilla Bayesian IRL needs to solve the costly forward planning problem - going from rewards to the Q values - at every step of the algorithm, which may need to be done thousands of times. We propose to solve this by a simple change: instead of focusing on primarily sampling in the space of rewards, we can focus on primarily working in the space of Q-values, since the computation required to go from Q-values to reward is radically cheaper. Furthermore, this reversion of the computation makes it easy to compute the gradient allowing efficient sampling using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propose ValueWalk - a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method based on this insight - and illustrate its advantages on several tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

A Quadrature Approach for General-Purpose Batch Bayesian Optimization via Probabilistic Lifting

Parallelisation in Bayesian optimisation is a common strategy but faces several challenges: the need for flexibility in acquisition functions and kernel choices, flexibility dealing with discrete and continuous variables simultaneously, model misspecification, and lastly fast massive parallelisation. To address these challenges, we introduce a versatile and modular framework for batch Bayesian optimisation via probabilistic lifting with kernel quadrature, called SOBER, which we present as a Python library based on GPyTorch/BoTorch. Our framework offers the following unique benefits: (1) Versatility in downstream tasks under a unified approach. (2) A gradient-free sampler, which does not require the gradient of acquisition functions, offering domain-agnostic sampling (e.g., discrete and mixed variables, non-Euclidean space). (3) Flexibility in domain prior distribution. (4) Adaptive batch size (autonomous determination of the optimal batch size). (5) Robustness against a misspecified reproducing kernel Hilbert space. (6) Natural stopping criterion.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Looping in the Human Collaborative and Explainable Bayesian Optimization

Like many optimizers, Bayesian optimization often falls short of gaining user trust due to opacity. While attempts have been made to develop human-centric optimizers, they typically assume user knowledge is well-specified and error-free, employing users mainly as supervisors of the optimization process. We relax these assumptions and propose a more balanced human-AI partnership with our Collaborative and Explainable Bayesian Optimization (CoExBO) framework. Instead of explicitly requiring a user to provide a knowledge model, CoExBO employs preference learning to seamlessly integrate human insights into the optimization, resulting in algorithmic suggestions that resonate with user preference. CoExBO explains its candidate selection every iteration to foster trust, empowering users with a clearer grasp of the optimization. Furthermore, CoExBO offers a no-harm guarantee, allowing users to make mistakes; even with extreme adversarial interventions, the algorithm converges asymptotically to a vanilla Bayesian optimization. We validate CoExBO's efficacy through human-AI teaming experiments in lithium-ion battery design, highlighting substantial improvements over conventional methods. Code is available https://github.com/ma921/CoExBO.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Adaptive Batch Sizes for Active Learning A Probabilistic Numerics Approach

Active learning parallelization is widely used, but typically relies on fixing the batch size throughout experimentation. This fixed approach is inefficient because of a dynamic trade-off between cost and speed -- larger batches are more costly, smaller batches lead to slower wall-clock run-times -- and the trade-off may change over the run (larger batches are often preferable earlier). To address this trade-off, we propose a novel Probabilistic Numerics framework that adaptively changes batch sizes. By framing batch selection as a quadrature task, our integration-error-aware algorithm facilitates the automatic tuning of batch sizes to meet predefined quadrature precision objectives, akin to how typical optimizers terminate based on convergence thresholds. This approach obviates the necessity for exhaustive searches across all potential batch sizes. We also extend this to scenarios with constrained active learning and constrained optimization, interpreting constraint violations as reductions in the precision requirement, to subsequently adapt batch construction. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our approach significantly enhances learning efficiency and flexibility in diverse Bayesian batch active learning and Bayesian optimization applications.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Bayesian Optimisation of Functions on Graphs

The increasing availability of graph-structured data motivates the task of optimising over functions defined on the node set of graphs. Traditional graph search algorithms can be applied in this case, but they may be sample-inefficient and do not make use of information about the function values; on the other hand, Bayesian optimisation is a class of promising black-box solvers with superior sample efficiency, but it has been scarcely been applied to such novel setups. To fill this gap, we propose a novel Bayesian optimisation framework that optimises over functions defined on generic, large-scale and potentially unknown graphs. Through the learning of suitable kernels on graphs, our framework has the advantage of adapting to the behaviour of the target function. The local modelling approach further guarantees the efficiency of our method. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world graphs demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed optimisation framework.

cs.LG↗