arXiv subjects

Michael C. Mozer

Publications and source records attributed to Michael C. Mozer.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Overcoming Temptation: Incentive Design For Intertemporal Choice

Individuals are often faced with temptations that can lead them astray from long-term goals. We're interested in developing interventions that steer individuals toward making good initial decisions and then maintaining those decisions over time. In the realm of financial decision making, a particularly successful approach is the prize-linked savings account: individuals are incentivized to make deposits by tying deposits to a periodic lottery that awards bonuses to the savers. Although these lotteries have been very effective in motivating savers across the globe, they are a one-size-fits-all solution. We investigate whether customized bonuses can be more effective. We formalize a delayed-gratification task as a Markov decision problem and characterize individuals as rational agents subject to temporal discounting, a cost associated with effort, and fluctuations in willpower. Our theory is able to explain key behavioral findings in intertemporal choice. We created an online delayed-gratification game in which the player scores points by selecting a queue to wait in and then performing a series of actions to advance to the front. Data collected from the game is fit to the model, and the instantiated model is then used to optimize predicted player performance over a space of incentives. We demonstrate that customized incentive structures can improve an individual's goal-directed decision making.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Learning Neural Causal Models with Active Interventions

Discovering causal structures from data is a challenging inference problem of fundamental importance in all areas of science. The appealing properties of neural networks have recently led to a surge of interest in differentiable neural network-based methods for learning causal structures from data. So far, differentiable causal discovery has focused on static datasets of observational or fixed interventional origin. In this work, we introduce an active intervention targeting (AIT) method which enables a quick identification of the underlying causal structure of the data-generating process. Our method significantly reduces the required number of interactions compared with random intervention targeting and is applicable for both discrete and continuous optimization formulations of learning the underlying directed acyclic graph (DAG) from data. We examine the proposed method across multiple frameworks in a wide range of settings and demonstrate superior performance on multiple benchmarks from simulated to real-world data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Mitigating Bias in Calibration Error Estimation

For an AI system to be reliable, the confidence it expresses in its decisions must match its accuracy. To assess the degree of match, examples are typically binned by confidence and the per-bin mean confidence and accuracy are compared. Most research in calibration focuses on techniques to reduce this empirical measure of calibration error, ECE_bin. We instead focus on assessing statistical bias in this empirical measure, and we identify better estimators. We propose a framework through which we can compute the bias of a particular estimator for an evaluation data set of a given size. The framework involves synthesizing model outputs that have the same statistics as common neural architectures on popular data sets. We find that binning-based estimators with bins of equal mass (number of instances) have lower bias than estimators with bins of equal width. Our results indicate two reliable calibration-error estimators: the debiased estimator (Brocker, 2012; Ferro and Fricker, 2012) and a method we propose, ECE_sweep, which uses equal-mass bins and chooses the number of bins to be as large as possible while preserving monotonicity in the calibration function. With these estimators, we observe improvements in the effectiveness of recalibration methods and in the detection of model miscalibration.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Soft Calibration Objectives for Neural Networks

Optimal decision making requires that classifiers produce uncertainty estimates consistent with their empirical accuracy. However, deep neural networks are often under- or over-confident in their predictions. Consequently, methods have been developed to improve the calibration of their predictive uncertainty both during training and post-hoc. In this work, we propose differentiable losses to improve calibration based on a soft (continuous) version of the binning operation underlying popular calibration-error estimators. When incorporated into training, these soft calibration losses achieve state-of-the-art single-model ECE across multiple datasets with less than 1% decrease in accuracy. For instance, we observe an 82% reduction in ECE (70% relative to the post-hoc rescaled ECE) in exchange for a 0.7% relative decrease in accuracy relative to the cross entropy baseline on CIFAR-100. When incorporated post-training, the soft-binning-based calibration error objective improves upon temperature scaling, a popular recalibration method. Overall, experiments across losses and datasets demonstrate that using calibration-sensitive procedures yield better uncertainty estimates under dataset shift than the standard practice of using a cross entropy loss and post-hoc recalibration methods.

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arXiv2021

von Mises-Fisher Loss: An Exploration of Embedding Geometries for Supervised Learning

Recent work has argued that classification losses utilizing softmax cross-entropy are superior not only for fixed-set classification tasks, but also by outperforming losses developed specifically for open-set tasks including few-shot learning and retrieval. Softmax classifiers have been studied using different embedding geometries -- Euclidean, hyperbolic, and spherical -- and claims have been made about the superiority of one or another, but they have not been systematically compared with careful controls. We conduct an empirical investigation of embedding geometry on softmax losses for a variety of fixed-set classification and image retrieval tasks. An interesting property observed for the spherical losses lead us to propose a probabilistic classifier based on the von Mises-Fisher distribution, and we show that it is competitive with state-of-the-art methods while producing improved out-of-the-box calibration. We provide guidance regarding the trade-offs between losses and how to choose among them.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Improving Anytime Prediction with Parallel Cascaded Networks and a Temporal-Difference Loss

Although deep feedforward neural networks share some characteristics with the primate visual system, a key distinction is their dynamics. Deep nets typically operate in serial stages wherein each layer completes its computation before processing begins in subsequent layers. In contrast, biological systems have cascaded dynamics: information propagates from neurons at all layers in parallel but transmission occurs gradually over time, leading to speed-accuracy trade offs even in feedforward architectures. We explore the consequences of biologically inspired parallel hardware by constructing cascaded ResNets in which each residual block has propagation delays but all blocks update in parallel in a stateful manner. Because information transmitted through skip connections avoids delays, the functional depth of the architecture increases over time, yielding anytime predictions that improve with internal-processing time. We introduce a temporal-difference training loss that achieves a strictly superior speed-accuracy profile over standard losses and enables the cascaded architecture to outperform state-of-the-art anytime-prediction methods. The cascaded architecture has intriguing properties, including: it classifies typical instances more rapidly than atypical instances; it is more robust to both persistent and transient noise than is a conventional ResNet; and its time-varying output trace provides a signal that can be exploited to improve information processing and inference.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

On the origin of switchbacks observed in the solar wind

The origin of switchbacks in the solar wind is discussed in two classes of theory that differ in the location of the source being either in the transition region near the Sun or in the solar wind, itself. The two classes of theory differ in their predictions of the switchback rate as a function of distance from the Sun. To test these theories, one-hour averages of Parker Solar Probe data were summed over orbits three through seven. It is found that: 1. The average switchback rate was independent of distance from the Sun. 2. The average switchback rate increased with solar wind speed. 3. The switchback size perpendicular to the flow increased as R, the distance from the Sun, while the radial size increased as R2, resulting in a large and increasing switchback aspect ratio with distance from the Sun. 4. The switchback rotation angle did not depend on either the solar wind speed or the distance from the Sun. These results are consistent with switchback formation in the transition region because their increase of tangential size with radius compensates for the radial falloff of their equatorial density to produce switchback rates that are independent of distance from the Sun. This constant observed switchback rate is inconsistent with an in situ source. Once formed, the switchback size and aspect ratio, but not the rotation angle, increased with radial distance to at least 100 solar radii. In addition, quiet intervals between switchback patches occurred at the lowest solar wind speeds.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Understanding Invariance via Feedforward Inversion of Discriminatively Trained Classifiers

A discriminatively trained neural net classifier can fit the training data perfectly if all information about its input other than class membership has been discarded prior to the output layer. Surprisingly, past research has discovered that some extraneous visual detail remains in the logit vector. This finding is based on inversion techniques that map deep embeddings back to images. We explore this phenomenon further using a novel synthesis of methods, yielding a feedforward inversion model that produces remarkably high fidelity reconstructions, qualitatively superior to those of past efforts. When applied to an adversarially robust classifier model, the reconstructions contain sufficient local detail and global structure that they might be confused with the original image in a quick glance, and the object category can clearly be gleaned from the reconstruction. Our approach is based on BigGAN (Brock, 2019), with conditioning on logits instead of one-hot class labels. We use our reconstruction model as a tool for exploring the nature of representations, including: the influence of model architecture and training objectives (specifically robust losses), the forms of invariance that networks achieve, representational differences between correctly and incorrectly classified images, and the effects of manipulating logits and images. We believe that our method can inspire future investigations into the nature of information flow in a neural net and can provide diagnostics for improving discriminative models.

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arXiv2021

Characterizing Structural Regularities of Labeled Data in Overparameterized Models

Humans are accustomed to environments that contain both regularities and exceptions. For example, at most gas stations, one pays prior to pumping, but the occasional rural station does not accept payment in advance. Likewise, deep neural networks can generalize across instances that share common patterns or structures, yet have the capacity to memorize rare or irregular forms. We analyze how individual instances are treated by a model via a consistency score. The score characterizes the expected accuracy for a held-out instance given training sets of varying size sampled from the data distribution. We obtain empirical estimates of this score for individual instances in multiple data sets, and we show that the score identifies out-of-distribution and mislabeled examples at one end of the continuum and strongly regular examples at the other end. We identify computationally inexpensive proxies to the consistency score using statistics collected during training. We show examples of potential applications to the analysis of deep-learning systems.

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arXiv2021

Wandering Within a World: Online Contextualized Few-Shot Learning

We aim to bridge the gap between typical human and machine-learning environments by extending the standard framework of few-shot learning to an online, continual setting. In this setting, episodes do not have separate training and testing phases, and instead models are evaluated online while learning novel classes. As in the real world, where the presence of spatiotemporal context helps us retrieve learned skills in the past, our online few-shot learning setting also features an underlying context that changes throughout time. Object classes are correlated within a context and inferring the correct context can lead to better performance. Building upon this setting, we propose a new few-shot learning dataset based on large scale indoor imagery that mimics the visual experience of an agent wandering within a world. Furthermore, we convert popular few-shot learning approaches into online versions and we also propose a new contextual prototypical memory model that can make use of spatiotemporal contextual information from the recent past.

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arXiv2021

Transforming Neural Network Visual Representations to Predict Human Judgments of Similarity

Deep-learning vision models have shown intriguing similarities and differences with respect to human vision. We investigate how to bring machine visual representations into better alignment with human representations. Human representations are often inferred from behavioral evidence such as the selection of an image most similar to a query image. We find that with appropriate linear transformations of deep embeddings, we can improve prediction of human binary choice on a data set of bird images from 72% at baseline to 89%. We hypothesized that deep embeddings have redundant, high (4096) dimensional representations; however, reducing the rank of these representations results in a loss of explanatory power. We hypothesized that the dilation transformation of representations explored in past research is too restrictive, and indeed we found that model explanatory power can be significantly improved with a more expressive linear transform. Most surprising and exciting, we found that, consistent with classic psychological literature, human similarity judgments are asymmetric: the similarity of X to Y is not necessarily equal to the similarity of Y to X, and allowing models to express this asymmetry improves explanatory power.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2020

Compositional Embeddings for Multi-Label One-Shot Learning

We present a compositional embedding framework that infers not just a single class per input image, but a set of classes, in the setting of one-shot learning. Specifically, we propose and evaluate several novel models consisting of (1) an embedding function f trained jointly with a "composition" function g that computes set union operations between the classes encoded in two embedding vectors; and (2) embedding f trained jointly with a "query" function h that computes whether the classes encoded in one embedding subsume the classes encoded in another embedding. In contrast to prior work, these models must both perceive the classes associated with the input examples and encode the relationships between different class label sets, and they are trained using only weak one-shot supervision consisting of the label-set relationships among training examples. Experiments on the OmniGlot, Open Images, and COCO datasets show that the proposed compositional embedding models outperform existing embedding methods. Our compositional embedding models have applications to multi-label object recognition for both one-shot and supervised learning.

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arXiv2020

Learning Neural Causal Models from Unknown Interventions

Promising results have driven a recent surge of interest in continuous optimization methods for Bayesian network structure learning from observational data. However, there are theoretical limitations on the identifiability of underlying structures obtained from observational data alone. Interventional data provides much richer information about the underlying data-generating process. However, the extension and application of methods designed for observational data to include interventions is not straightforward and remains an open problem. In this paper we provide a general framework based on continuous optimization and neural networks to create models for the combination of observational and interventional data. The proposed method is even applicable in the challenging and realistic case that the identity of the intervened upon variable is unknown. We examine the proposed method in the setting of graph recovery both de novo and from a partially-known edge set. We establish strong benchmark results on several structure learning tasks, including structure recovery of both synthetic graphs as well as standard graphs from the Bayesian Network Repository.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Neural Networks Trained on Natural Scenes Exhibit Gestalt Closure

The Gestalt laws of perceptual organization, which describe how visual elements in an image are grouped and interpreted, have traditionally been thought of as innate despite their ecological validity. We use deep-learning methods to investigate whether natural scene statistics might be sufficient to derive the Gestalt laws. We examine the law of closure, which asserts that human visual perception tends to "close the gap" by assembling elements that can jointly be interpreted as a complete figure or object. We demonstrate that a state-of-the-art convolutional neural network, trained to classify natural images, exhibits closure on synthetic displays of edge fragments, as assessed by similarity of internal representations. This finding provides support for the hypothesis that the human perceptual system is even more elegant than the Gestaltists imagined: a single law---adaptation to the statistical structure of the environment---might suffice as fundamental.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Sequential mastery of multiple visual tasks: Networks naturally learn to learn and forget to forget

We explore the behavior of a standard convolutional neural net in a continual-learning setting that introduces visual classification tasks sequentially and requires the net to master new tasks while preserving mastery of previously learned tasks. This setting corresponds to that which human learners face as they acquire domain expertise serially, for example, as an individual studies a textbook. Through simulations involving sequences of ten related visual tasks, we find reason for optimism that nets will scale well as they advance from having a single skill to becoming multi-skill domain experts. We observe two key phenomena. First, \emph{forward facilitation}---the accelerated learning of task $n+1$ having learned $n$ previous tasks---grows with $n$. Second, \emph{backward interference}---the forgetting of the $n$ previous tasks when learning task $n+1$---diminishes with $n$. Amplifying forward facilitation is the goal of research on metalearning, and attenuating backward interference is the goal of research on catastrophic forgetting. We find that both of these goals are attained simply through broader exposure to a domain.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Identity Crisis: Memorization and Generalization under Extreme Overparameterization

We study the interplay between memorization and generalization of overparameterized networks in the extreme case of a single training example and an identity-mapping task. We examine fully-connected and convolutional networks (FCN and CNN), both linear and nonlinear, initialized randomly and then trained to minimize the reconstruction error. The trained networks stereotypically take one of two forms: the constant function (memorization) and the identity function (generalization). We formally characterize generalization in single-layer FCNs and CNNs. We show empirically that different architectures exhibit strikingly different inductive biases. For example, CNNs of up to 10 layers are able to generalize from a single example, whereas FCNs cannot learn the identity function reliably from 60k examples. Deeper CNNs often fail, but nonetheless do astonishing work to memorize the training output: because CNN biases are location invariant, the model must progressively grow an output pattern from the image boundaries via the coordination of many layers. Our work helps to quantify and visualize the sensitivity of inductive biases to architectural choices such as depth, kernel width, and number of channels.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Convolutional Bipartite Attractor Networks

In human perception and cognition, a fundamental operation that brains perform is interpretation: constructing coherent neural states from noisy, incomplete, and intrinsically ambiguous evidence. The problem of interpretation is well matched to an early and often overlooked architecture, the attractor network---a recurrent neural net that performs constraint satisfaction, imputation of missing features, and clean up of noisy data via energy minimization dynamics. We revisit attractor nets in light of modern deep learning methods and propose a convolutional bipartite architecture with a novel training loss, activation function, and connectivity constraints. We tackle larger problems than have been previously explored with attractor nets and demonstrate their potential for image completion and super-resolution. We argue that this architecture is better motivated than ever-deeper feedforward models and is a viable alternative to more costly sampling-based generative methods on a range of supervised and unsupervised tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Stochastic Prototype Embeddings

Supervised deep-embedding methods project inputs of a domain to a representational space in which same-class instances lie near one another and different-class instances lie far apart. We propose a probabilistic method that treats embeddings as random variables. Extending a state-of-the-art deterministic method, Prototypical Networks (Snell et al., 2017), our approach supposes the existence of a class prototype around which class instances are Gaussian distributed. The prototype posterior is a product distribution over labeled instances, and query instances are classified by marginalizing relative prototype proximity over embedding uncertainty. We describe an efficient sampler for approximate inference that allows us to train the model at roughly the same space and time cost as its deterministic sibling. Incorporating uncertainty improves performance on few-shot learning and gracefully handles label noise and out-of-distribution inputs. Compared to the state-of-the-art stochastic method, Hedged Instance Embeddings (Oh et al., 2019), we achieve superior large- and open-set classification accuracy. Our method also aligns class-discriminating features with the axes of the embedding space, yielding an interpretable, disentangled representation.

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