arXiv subjects

Michael C. Nolan

Publications and source records attributed to Michael C. Nolan.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The shape and spin state of (275677) 2000 RS11 from ground-based radar and optical observations

Near-Earth asteroid (275677) 2000 RS11 was observed over 5 days in March 2014 with both the Arecibo (2380 MHz, 12.6 cm) and Goldstone (8560 MHz, 3.5 cm) planetary radar systems. The continuous-wave spectra and delay-Doppler images collected revealed a sub-km-sized object with a strongly bifurcated shape. We used these radar observations, in combination with 7 optical lightcurves collected in 2014 and one lightcurve from 2023, to create a comprehensive shape and spin-state model for RS11. We find a rotation period of P = (4.445+-0.001) hours around a pole of lambda = (225+-80) and beta = (-80+-9) relative to the plane of the ecliptic. The shape of RS11 is unusual in that it does not resemble many of the other near-Earth asteroids modelled with ground-based radar. Whilst RS11 consists of a largely spherical, smaller lobe attached to an elongated, larger lobe via a narrow neck, the smaller lobe is not aligned with the long axis of the larger lobe, but is closer to the larger lobe's shortest principal axis. In combination with a large concavity observed on the outer face of the larger lobe, this may point to an unusual formation or event in the object's past. We estimate that RS11 has an geometric albedo of (0.16+-0.06) and a radar albedo between 0.08 and 0.16. Analysis of its gravitational environment reveals that for standard S-type asteroid densities, we would not expect rotational instability and it is possible for RS11 to be a low tensile strength rubble-pile asteroid.

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arXiv2025

The Feasibility of a Spacecraft Flyby with the Third Interstellar Object 3I/ATLAS from Earth or Mars

We investigate the feasibility of a spacecraft mission to conduct a flyby of 3I/ATLAS, the third macroscopic interstellar object discovered on July 1 2025, as it traverses the Solar System. There are both ready-to-launch spacecraft currently in storage on Earth, such as Janus, and spacecraft nearing the end of their missions at Mars. We calculate minimum $ΔV$ single-impulse direct transfer trajectories to 3I/ATLAS both from Earth and from Mars. We consider launch dates spanning January 2025 through March 2026 to explore obtainable and hypothetical mission scenarios. Post-discovery Earth departures require a challenging $ΔV\gtrsim24$ km s$^{-1}$ to fly by 3I/ATLAS. By contrast, Mars departures from July 2025 - September 2025 require $ΔV\sim5$ km s$^{-1}$ to achieve an early October flyby -- which is more feasible with existing propulsion capabilities. \added{We further calculate the phase angle and flyby velocity for these trajectories, noting that the resulting flyby speeds would impose significant observational and engineering challenges that a mission would need to overcome.} We discuss how existing spacecraft could be used to observe 3I/ATLAS and how spacecraft at other locations in the Solar System could be repurposed to visit future interstellar objects on short notice.

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arXiv2023

Successful Kinetic Impact into an Asteroid for Planetary Defense

While no known asteroid poses a threat to Earth for at least the next century, the catalog of near-Earth asteroids is incomplete for objects whose impacts would produce regional devastation. Several approaches have been proposed to potentially prevent an asteroid impact with Earth by deflecting or disrupting an asteroid. A test of kinetic impact technology was identified as the highest priority space mission related to asteroid mitigation. NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is the first full-scale test of kinetic impact technology. The mission's target asteroid was Dimorphos, the secondary member of the S-type binary near-Earth asteroid (65803) Didymos. This binary asteroid system was chosen to enable ground-based telescopes to quantify the asteroid deflection caused by DART's impact. While past missions have utilized impactors to investigate the properties of small bodies those earlier missions were not intended to deflect their targets and did not achieve measurable deflections. Here we report the DART spacecraft's autonomous kinetic impact into Dimorphos and reconstruct the impact event, including the timeline leading to impact, the location and nature of the DART impact site, and the size and shape of Dimorphos. The successful impact of the DART spacecraft with Dimorphos and the resulting change in Dimorphos's orbit demonstrates that kinetic impactor technology is a viable technique to potentially defend Earth if necessary.

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arXiv2019

Detection of Rotational Acceleration of Bennu using HST Lightcurve Observations

We observed the near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu from the ground in 1999 and 2005, and with the Hubble Space Telescope in 2012, to constrain its rotation rate. The data reveal an acceleration of $2.64 \pm 1.05 \times 10^{-6} \mathrm{deg\ day}^{-2}$, which could be due to a change in the moment of inertia of Bennu or to spin up from the YORP effect or other source of angular momentum. The best solution is within 1 sigma of the period determined by Nolan et al. (2013). The OSIRIS-REx mission will determine the rotation state independently in 2019. Those measurements should show whether the change in rotation rate is a steady increase (due, for example, to the YORP effect) or some other phenomenon. The precise shape and surface properties measured by the OSIRIS-REx science team will allow for a better understanding of variations in rotation rate of small asteroids.

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arXiv2018

The Application of Autocorrelation SETI Search Techniques in an ATA Survey

We report a novel radio autocorrelation (AC) search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI). For selected frequencies across the terrestrial microwave window (1-10 GHz) observations were conducted at the Allen Telescope Array to identify artificial non-sinusoidal periodic signals with radio bandwidths greater than 4 Hz, which are capable of carrying substantial messages with symbol-rates from 4-1000000 Hz. Out of 243 observations, about half (101) were directed toward sources with known continuum flux > ~1 Jy over the sampled bandwidth (quasars, pulsars, supernova remnants, and masers), based on the hypothesis that they might harbor heretofore undiscovered natural or artificial, repetitive, phase or frequency modulation. The rest of the targets were mostly toward exoplanet stars with no previously discovered continuum flux. No signals attributable to extraterrestrial technology were found in this study. We conclude that the maximum probability that future observations like the ones described here will reveal repetitively modulated emissions is less than 1% for continuum sources and exoplanets, alike. The paper concludes by describing a new approach to expanding this survey to many more targets and much greater sensitivity using archived data from interferometers all over the world.

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arXiv2017

Thermal Properties and an Improved Shape Model for Near-Earth Asteroid (162421) 2000 ET70

We present thermal properties and an improved shape model for potentially hazardous asteroid (162421) 2000 ET70. In addition to the radar data from 2000 ET70's apparition in 2012, our model incorporates optical lightcurves and infrared spectra that were not included in the analysis of Naidu et al. (2013, Icarus 226, 323-335). We confirm the general "clenched fist" appearance of the Naidu et al. model, but compared to their model, our best-fit model is about 10% longer along its long principal axis, nearly identical along the intermediate axis, and about 25% shorter along the short axis. We find the asteroid's dimensions to be 2.9 km $\times$ 2.2 km $\times$ 1.5 km (with relative uncertainties of about 10%, 15%, and 25%, respectively). With the available data, 2000 ET70's period and pole position are degenerate with each other. The radar and lightcurve data together constrain the pole direction to fall along an arc that is about twenty-three degrees long and eight degrees wide. Infrared spectra from the NASA InfraRed Telescope Facility (IRTF) provide an additional constraint on the pole. Thermophysical modeling, using our SHERMAN software, shows that only a subset of the pole directions, about twelve degrees of that arc, are compatible with the infrared data. Using all of the available data, we find that 2000 ET70 has a sidereal rotation period of 8.944 hours ($\pm$ 0.009 h) and a north pole direction of ecliptic coordinates $(52^{\circ}, -60^{\circ}) \pm 6^{\circ}$. The infrared data, acquired over several dates, require that the thermal properties (albedo, thermal inertia, surface roughness) must change across the asteroid's surface. By incorporating the detailed shape model and spin state into our thermal modeling, the multiple ground-based observations at different viewing geometries have allowed us to constrain the levels of the variations in the surface properties.

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arXiv2015

Radar Imaging and Characterization of Binary Near-Earth Asteroid (185851) 2000 DP107

Potentially hazardous asteroid (185851) 2000 DP107 was the first binary near-Earth asteroid to be imaged. Radar observations in 2000 provided images at 75 m resolution that revealed the shape, orbit, and spin-up formation mechanism of the binary. The asteroid made a more favorable flyby of the Earth in 2008, yielding images at 30 m resolution. We used these data to obtain shape models for the two components and to improve the estimates of the mutual orbit, component masses, and spin periods. The primary has a sidereal spin period of 2.7745 +/- 0.0007 h and is roughly spheroidal with an equivalent diameter of 863 m +/- 5 %. It has a mass of 4.656 +/- 0.43 x 10^11 kg and a density of 1381 +/- 244 kg m^{-3}. It exhibits an equatorial ridge similar to the (66391) 1999 KW4 primary, however the equatorial ridge in this case is not as regular and has a ~300 m diameter concavity on one side. The secondary has a sidereal spin period of 1.77 +/- 0.02 days commensurate with the orbital period. The secondary is slightly elongated and has overall dimensions of 377 x 314 x 268 m (6 % uncertainties). Its mass is 0.178 +/- 0.021 x 10^{11} kg and its density is 1047 +/- 230 kg m^{-3}. The mutual orbit has a semi-major axis of 2.659 +/- 0.08 km, an eccentricity of 0.019 +/- 0.01, and a period of 1.7556 +/- 0.0015 days. The normalized total angular momentum of this system exceeds the amount required for the expected spin-up formation mechanism. An increase of angular momentum from non-gravitational forces after binary formation is a possible explanation. The two components have similar radar reflectivity, suggesting a similar composition consistent with formation by spin-up. The secondary appears to exhibit a larger circular polarization ratio than the primary, suggesting a rougher surface or subsurface at radar wavelength scales.

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arXiv2014

Detecting Earth's Temporarily-Captured Natural Satellites - Minimoons

We present a study on the discoverability of temporarily captured orbiters (TCOs) by present day or near-term anticipated ground-based and space-based facilities. TCOs (Granvik et al. 2012) are potential targets for spacecraft ren- dezvous or human exploration (Chyba et al. 2014) and provide an opportunity to study the population of the smallest asteroids in the solar system. We find that present day ground-based optical surveys such as Pan-STARRS and ATLAS can discover the largest TCOs over years of operation. A targeted survey conducted with the Subaru telescope can discover TCOs in the 0.5 m to 1.0 m diameter size range in about 5 nights of observing. Furthermore, we discuss the application of space-based infrared surveys, such as NEOWISE, and ground-based meteor detection systems such as CAMS, CAMO and ASGARD in discovering TCOs. These systems can detect TCOs but at a uninteresting rate. Finally, we discuss the application of bi-static radar at Arecibo and Green Bank to discover TCOs. Our radar simulations are strongly dependent on the rotation rate distribution of the smallest asteroids but with an optimistic distribution we find that these systems have > 80% chance of detecting a > 10 cm diameter TCO in about 40 h of operation.

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arXiv2014

Orbit and Bulk Density of the OSIRIS-REx Target Asteroid (101955) Bennu

The target asteroid of the OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return mission, (101955) Bennu (formerly 1999 RQ$_{36}$), is a half-kilometer near-Earth asteroid with an extraordinarily well constrained orbit. An extensive data set of optical astrometry from 1999--2013 and high-quality radar delay measurements to Bennu in 1999, 2005, and 2011 reveal the action of the Yarkovsky effect, with a mean semimajor axis drift rate $da/dt = (-19.0 \pm 0.1)\times 10^{-4}$ au/Myr or $284\pm 1.5\;\rm{m/yr}$. The accuracy of this result depends critically on the fidelity of the observational and dynamical model. As an example, neglecting the relativistic perturbations of the Earth during close approaches affects the orbit with $3σ$ significance in $da/dt$. The orbital deviations from purely gravitational dynamics allow us to deduce the acceleration of the Yarkovsky effect, while the known physical characterization of Bennu allows us to independently model the force due to thermal emissions. The combination of these two analyses yields a bulk density of $ρ= 1260\pm70\,\rm{kg/m^3}$, which indicates a macroporosity in the range $40\pm10$% for the bulk densities of likely analog meteorites, suggesting a rubble-pile internal structure. The associated mass estimate is $(7.8\pm0.9)\times 10^{10}\, \rm{kg}$ and $GM = 5.2\pm0.6\,\rm{m^3/s^2}$. Bennu's Earth close approaches are deterministic over the interval 1654--2135, beyond which the predictions are statistical in nature. In particular, the 2135 close approach is likely within the lunar distance and leads to strong scattering and therefore numerous potential impacts in subsequent years, from 2175--2196. The highest individual impact probability is $9.5\times 10^{-5}$ in 2196, and the cumulative impact probability is $3.7\times 10^{-4}$, leading to a cumulative Palermo Scale of -1.70.

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arXiv2013

Radar Imaging and Physical Characterization of Near-Earth Asteroid (162421) 2000 ET70

We observed near-Earth asteroid (162421) 2000 ET70 using the Arecibo and Goldstone radar systems over a period of 12 days during its close approach to the Earth in February 2012. We obtained continuous wave spectra and range-Doppler images with range resolutions as fine as 15 m. Inversion of the radar images yields a detailed shape model with an effective spatial resolution of 100 m. The asteroid has overall dimensions of 2.6 km X 2.2 km X 2.1 km (5% uncertainties) and a surface rich with kilometer-scale ridges and concavities. This size, combined with absolute magnitude measurements, implies an extremely low albedo (~2%). It is a principal axis rotator and spins in a retrograde manner with a sidereal spin period of 8.96 +/- 0.01 hours. In terms of gravitational slopes evaluated at scales of 100 m, the surface seems mostly relaxed with over 99% of the surface having slopes less than 30 degrees, but there are some outcrops at the north pole that may have steeper slopes. Our precise measurements of the range and velocity of the asteroid, combined with optical astrometry, enables reliable trajectory predictions for this potentially hazardous asteroid in the interval 460-2813.

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arXiv2011

Orbits of Near-Earth Asteroid Triples 2001 SN263 and 1994 CC: Properties, Origin, and Evolution

Three-body model fits to Arecibo and Goldstone radar data reveal the nature of two near-Earth asteroid triples. Triple-asteroid system 2001 SN263 is characterized by a primary of ~10^13 kg, an inner satellite ~1% as massive orbiting at ~3 primary radii in ~0.7 days, and an outer satellite ~2.5% as massive orbiting at ~13 primary radii in ~6.2 days. 1994 CC is a smaller system with a primary of mass ~2.6 \times 10^11 kg and two satellites ~2% and ~1% as massive orbiting at distances of ~5.5 and ~19.5 primary radii. Their orbital periods are ~1.2 and ~8.4 days. Examination of resonant arguments shows that the satellites are not currently in a mean-motion resonance. Precession of the apses and nodes are detected in both systems (2001 SN263 inner body: d{\varpi}/dt ~1.1 deg/day, 1994 CC inner body: d{\varpi}/dt ~ -0.2 deg/day), which is in agreement with analytical predictions of the secular evolution due to mutually interacting orbits and primary oblateness. Nonzero mutual inclinations between the orbital planes of the satellites provide the best fits to the data in both systems (2001 SN263: ~14 degrees, 1994 CC: ~16 degrees). Our best-fit orbits are consistent with nearly circular motion, except for 1994 CC's outer satellite which has an eccentric orbit of e ~ 0.19. We examine several processes that can generate the observed eccentricity and inclinations, including the Kozai and evection resonances, past mean-motion resonance crossings, and close encounters with terrestrial planets. In particular, we find that close planetary encounters can easily excite the eccentricities and mutual inclinations of the satellites' orbits to the currently observed values.

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arXiv2011

Radar Observations and the Shape of Near-Earth Asteroid 2008 EV5

We observed the near-Earth asteroid 2008 EV5 with the Arecibo and Goldstone planetary radars and the Very Long Baseline Array during December 2008. EV5 rotates retrograde and its overall shape is a 400 /pm 50 m oblate spheroid. The most prominent surface feature is a ridge parallel to the asteroid's equator that is broken by a concavity 150 m in diameter. Otherwise the asteroid's surface is notably smooth on decameter scales. EV5's radar and optical albedos are consistent with either rocky or stony-iron composition. The equatorial ridge is similar to structure seen on the rubble-pile near-Earth asteroid (66391) 1999 KW4 and is consistent with YORP spin-up reconfiguring the asteroid in the past. We interpret the concavity as an impact crater. Shaking during the impact and later regolith redistribution may have erased smaller features, explaining the general lack of decameter-scale surface structure.

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arXiv2005

Detection of Large Grains in the Coma of Comet C/2001 A2 (LINEAR) from Arecibo Radar Observations

Arecibo S-band (lambda=13cm) radar observations of Comet C/2001 A2 (LINEAR) on 2001 July 7-9 showed a strong echo from large coma grains. This echo was significantly depolarized. This is the first firm detection of depolarization in a grain-coma radar echo and indicates that the largest grains are at least lambda / 2 or 2 cm in radius. The grains are moving at tens of m/s with respect to the nucleus. The non-detection of the nucleus places an upper limit of 3 km on its diameter. The broad, asymmetric echo power spectrum suggests a fan of grains that have a steep (differential number ~ a^-4) size distribution at cm-scales, though the observed fragmentation of this comet complicates that picture.

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