arXiv subjects

Michael D. Ward

Publications and source records attributed to Michael D. Ward.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Hybrid Forecasting of Geopolitical Events

Sound decision-making relies on accurate prediction for tangible outcomes ranging from military conflict to disease outbreaks. To improve crowdsourced forecasting accuracy, we developed SAGE, a hybrid forecasting system that combines human and machine generated forecasts. The system provides a platform where users can interact with machine models and thus anchor their judgments on an objective benchmark. The system also aggregates human and machine forecasts weighting both for propinquity and based on assessed skill while adjusting for overconfidence. We present results from the Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) - larger than comparable forecasting tournaments - including 1085 users forecasting 398 real-world forecasting problems over eight months. Our main result is that the hybrid system generated more accurate forecasts compared to a human-only baseline which had no machine generated predictions. We found that skilled forecasters who had access to machine-generated forecasts outperformed those who only viewed historical data. We also demonstrated the inclusion of machine-generated forecasts in our aggregation algorithms improved performance, both in terms of accuracy and scalability. This suggests that hybrid forecasting systems, which potentially require fewer human resources, can be a viable approach for maintaining a competitive level of accuracy over a larger number of forecasting questions.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Metallic Microswimmers Driven up the Wall by Gravity

As a natural and functional behavior, various microorganisms exhibit gravitaxis by orienting and swimming upwards against gravity. Swimming autophoretic nanomotors described herein, comprising bimetallic nanorods, preferentially orient upwards and swim up along a wall, when tail-heavy (i.e. when the density of one of the metals is larger than the other). Through experiment and theory, two mechanisms were identified that contribute to this gravitactic behavior. First, a buoyancy or gravitational torque acts on these rods to align them upwards. Second, hydrodynamic interactions of the rod with the inclined wall induce a fore-aft drag asymmetry on the rods that reinforces their orientation bias and promotes their upward motion.

cond-mat.soft↗

arXiv2018

Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas

Missing observations are pervasive throughout empirical research, especially in the social sciences. Despite multiple approaches to dealing adequately with missing data, many scholars still fail to address this vital issue. In this paper, we present a simple-to-use method for generating multiple imputations using a Gaussian copula. The Gaussian copula for multiple imputation (Hoff, 2007) allows scholars to attain estimation results that have good coverage and small bias. The use of copulas to model the dependence among variables will enable researchers to construct valid joint distributions of the data, even without knowledge of the actual underlying marginal distributions. Multiple imputations are then generated by drawing observations from the resulting posterior joint distribution and replacing the missing values. Using simulated and observational data from published social science research, we compare imputation via Gaussian copulas with two other widely used imputation methods: MICE and Amelia II. Our results suggest that the Gaussian copula approach has a slightly smaller bias, higher coverage rates, and narrower confidence intervals compared to the other methods. This is especially true when the variables with missing data are not normally distributed. These results, combined with theoretical guarantees and ease-of-use suggest that the approach examined provides an attractive alternative for applied researchers undertaking multiple imputations.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Inferential Approaches for Network Analyses: AMEN for Latent Factor Models

We introduce a Bayesian approach to conduct inferential analyses on dyadic data while accounting for interdependencies between observations through a set of additive and multiplicative effects (AME). The AME model is built on a generalized linear modeling framework and is thus flexible enough to be applied to a variety of contexts. We contrast the AME model to two prominent approaches in the literature: the latent space model (LSM) and the exponential random graph model (ERGM). Relative to these approaches, we show that the AME approach is a) to be easy to implement; b) interpretable in a general linear model framework; c) computationally straightforward; d) not prone to degeneracy; e) captures 1st, 2nd, and 3rd order network dependencies; and f) notably outperforms ERGMs and LSMs on a variety of metrics and in an out-of-sample context. In summary, AME offers a straightforward way to undertake nuanced, principled inferential network analysis for a wide range of social science questions.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2017

Guiding microscale swimmers using teardrop-shaped posts

The swimming direction of biological or artificial microscale swimmers tends to be randomised over long time-scales by thermal fluctuations. Bacteria use various strategies to bias swimming behaviour and achieve directed motion against a flow, maintain alignment with gravity or travel up a chemical gradient. Herein, we explore a purely geometric means of biasing the motion of artificial nanorod swimmers. These artificial swimmers are bimetallic rods, powered by a chemical fuel, which swim on a substrate printed with teardrop-shaped posts. The artificial swimmers are hydrodynamically attracted to the posts, swimming alongside the post perimeter for long times before leaving. The rods experience a higher rate of departure from the higher curvature end of the teardrop shape, thereby introducing a bias into their motion. This bias increases with swimming speed and can be translated into a macroscopic directional motion over long times by using arrays of teardrop-shaped posts aligned along a single direction. This method provides a protocol for concentrating swimmers, sorting swimmers according to different speeds, and could enable artificial swimmers to transport cargo to desired locations.

cond-mat.soft↗

arXiv2016

Lost in Space: Geolocation in Event Data

Extracting the "correct" location information from text data, i.e., determining the place of event, has long been a goal for automated text processing. To approximate human-like coding schema, we introduce a supervised machine learning algorithm that classifies each location word to be either correct or incorrect. We use news articles collected from around the world (Integrated Crisis Early Warning System [ICEWS] data and Open Event Data Alliance [OEDA] data) to test our algorithm that consists of two stages. In the feature selection stage, we extract contextual information from texts, namely, the N-gram patterns for location words, the frequency of mention, and the context of the sentences containing location words. In the classification stage, we use three classifiers to estimate the model parameters in the training set and then to predict whether a location word in the test set news articles is the place of the event. The validation results show that our algorithm improves the accuracy rate of the current geolocation methods of dictionary approach by as much as 25%.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2015

Dynamic self-assembly of microscale rotors and swimmers

Biological systems often involve the self-assembly of basic components into complex and function- ing structures. Artificial systems that mimic such processes can provide a well-controlled setting to explore the principles involved and also synthesize useful micromachines. Our experiments show that immotile, but active, components self-assemble into two types of structure that exhibit the fundamental forms of motility: translation and rotation. Specifically, micron-scale metallic rods are designed to induce extensile surface flows in the presence of a chemical fuel; these rods interact with each other and pair up to form either a swimmer or a rotor. Such pairs can transition reversibly be- tween these two configurations, leading to kinetics reminiscent of bacterial run-and-tumble motion.

cond-mat.soft↗

arXiv2015

Relax, Tensors Are Here: Dependencies in International Processes

Previous models of international conflict have suffered two shortfalls. They tended not to embody dynamic changes, focusing rather on static slices of behavior over time. These models have also been empirically evaluated in ways that assumed the independence of each country, when in reality they are searching for the interdependence among all countries. We illustrate a solution to these two hurdles and evaluate this new, dynamic, network based approach to the dependencies among the ebb and flow of daily international interactions using a newly developed, and openly available, database of events among nations.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2014

Irregular Leadership Changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models

We forecast Irregular Leadership Changes (ILC)--unexpected leadership changes in contravention of a state's established laws and conventions--for mid-2014 using predictions generated from an innovative ensemble model that is composed of several split-population duration regression models. This approach uses distinct thematic models, combining them into one aggregate forecast developed on the basis of their predictive accuracy and uniqueness. The data are based on 45 ILCs that occurred from March 2001 through March 2014, with monthly observations for up to 168 countries worldwide. The ensemble model provides forecasts for the period from April to September 2014. Notably, the countries with the highest probability of irregular leadership change in the middle six months of 2014 include the Ukraine, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Yemen, Egypt, and Thailand. The leadership in these countries have exhibited fragility during this forecast window.

stat.AP↗