arXiv subjects

Michael E. Cholette

Publications and source records attributed to Michael E. Cholette.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Two-stage monitoring design and budgeted condition-based maintenance for LED lighting systems: a gamma-process-based ensemble Kalman filter approach

Light-emitting diode (LED) luminaires degrade gradually during operation, reducing working plane (WP) illuminance and increasing the risk of inadequate indoor lighting. Because individual luminaire degradation states are difficult to measure directly after installation, this paper estimates latent luminaire degradation states from sparse in situ WP illuminance measurements. A two-stage monitoring design and budgeted condition-based maintenance (CBM) optimization framework is proposed. At the design stage, Radiance simulations are used to construct a linear-Gaussian observation model that maps latent luminaire degradation states to WP illuminance measurements. An identifiability-constrained D-optimal design then selects an informative reference layout of WP measurement points for inverse state estimation at a single epoch. At the runtime stage, the measurement design determines the visit schedule and the active reference measurement points for each visit, while an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) combines these sparse measurements with nonhomogeneous gamma process degradation predictions to update latent luminaire degradation state estimates. Posterior predictive failure probabilities are used as the risk metric for preventive replacement. Under a monitoring budget, the resulting runtime monitoring and CBM policy jointly selects the visit schedule, active reference measurement points, and risk threshold to minimize expected total downtime and replacement cost. A case study on an office lighting zone demonstrates design-stage measurement layout selection, runtime-stage measurement design, and budgeted CBM policy optimization.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Gamma Process Degradation Modeling and Performance-Driven Opportunistic Maintenance Optimization for LED Lighting Systems

LED lighting systems consist of multiple LED luminaires, each subject to gradual package degradation and abrupt driver failures. Their acceptability is governed by long-term spatio-temporal illuminance compliance on the working plane, which is shaped collectively by all luminaire states, rather than by individual luminaire reliability alone. Current practice, however, verifies compliance only at commissioning through static indices, which cannot capture intermittent or persistent violations accumulated over the operating horizon. This paper proposes a performance-driven, simulation-in-the-loop framework for opportunistic maintenance optimization of LED lighting systems. Package degradation is modeled by a non-homogeneous Gamma process aligned with the IESNA TM-21 lumen maintenance projection method. Driver failures are described by a Weibull lifetime model. The two mechanisms are then integrated into a unified luminaire state via a competing-failure formulation. Model parameters are calibrated from IESNA LM-80 test data via Bayesian inference, with uncertainty propagated from stress levels to service conditions. A programmatic workflow integrates degradation modeling, ray-tracing simulation, and performance evaluation, mapping stochastic luminaire trajectories to the working plane illuminance field. To characterize long-term system performance, a deficiency ratio is defined to quantify the fraction of operational time during which average illuminance or uniformity requirements are violated. To enable scalable Monte Carlo evaluation, a surrogate model with high predictive fidelity replaces repeated Radiance evaluations. The opportunistic maintenance policy is then optimized in a multi-objective setting, balancing performance deficiency and maintenance effort. A realistic office-zone case study demonstrates the framework and reveals Pareto trade-offs for maintenance decision support.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Sensor Fusion for Track Geometry Monitoring: Integrating On-Board Condition Monitoring and Degradation Models via Kalman Filtering

Track geometry monitoring is essential for maintaining the safety and efficiency of railway operations. While Track Recording Cars (TRCs) provide accurate measurements of track geometry indicators, their limited availability and high operational costs restrict frequent monitoring across large rail networks. Recent advancements in on-board sensor systems installed on in-service trains offer a cost-effective alternative by enabling high-frequency, albeit less accurate, data collection. This study proposes a method to enhance the reliability of track geometry predictions by integrating low-accuracy sensor vibration signals with degradation models through a Kalman filter framework. An experimental campaign using a low-cost sensor system mounted on a TRC evaluates the proposed approach. The results demonstrate that incorporating frequent sensor data significantly reduces prediction uncertainty, even when the data is noisy. The study also investigates how the frequency of data recording influences the size of the credible prediction interval, providing guidance on the optimal deployment of on-board sensors for effective track monitoring and maintenance planning.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Coating Breakdown Prediction for Ships and Inspection Planning

Marine corrosion significantly reduces a ship's availability, increases costs of operation and could impact safety. Protective coatings mitigate these risks, but their effectiveness deteriorates over time. Early detection of coating breakdown is crucial to prevent costly repairs and safety concerns. While corrosion itself is well-understood, coating degradation remains under-investigated due to insufficient long-term data. This work addresses this knowledge gap by enhancing coating defect prediction and optimizing inspection planning for ships. The Power Law Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (PL-NHPP) is utilized for modeling coating defect arrivals. Unlike prior studies, we employ a hierarchical Bayesian approach for parameter fitting, effectively addressing limitations associated with scarce real-world data. Furthermore, we optimize inspection planning by incorporating out-of-service costs and potential costs increases due to delayed repairs. The efficacy of these methods is evaluated through a comprehensive case study involving a recently commissioned fleet with limited historical data. This research contributes to the advancement of condition-based maintenance (CBM) strategies for ships by enabling more accurate prediction of coating breakdowns and optimizing inspection schedules early in the life of the fleet. This approach ultimately improves operational efficiency and reduces life-cycle costs.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Bayesian Multivariate Track Geometry Degradation Modelling and its use in Condition-Based Inspection

Effective maintenance of railway infrastructure is crucial for safe and comfortable transportation. Among the various degradation modes, track geometry deformation due to repeated loading significantly impacts operational safety. Detecting and maintaining acceptable track geometry involves the use of track recording vehicles (TRVs) that inspect and record geometric parameters. This study aims to develop a novel track geometry degradation model that considers multiple indicators and their correlations, accounting for both imperfect manual and mechanized tamping. A multivariate Wiener model is formulated to capture the characteristics of track geometry degradation. To address data limitations, a hierarchical Bayesian approach with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation is employed. This research contributes to the analysis of a multivariate predictive model, which considers the correlation between the degradation rates of multiple indicators, providing insights for rail operators and new track-monitoring systems. The model's performance is validated through a real-world case study on a commuter track in Queensland, Australia, using actual data and independent test datasets. Additionally, the study demonstrates the application of the proposed multivariate degradation model in developing a condition-based inspection policy for track geometry, potentially reducing the number of TRV runs while maintaining abnormal detection levels and failure rates.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Evaluation of onboard sensors for track geometry monitoring against conventional track recording measurements

The main objective of this paper is to assess the estimation of track condition parameters using onboard micro-electro-mechanical-system (MEMS) accelerometers. A prototype of an onboard data acquisition system was designed and installed on a track recording car (TRC) and a measurement campaign was conducted on an extensive portion of the Brisbane Suburban railway network. Comparison of the accelerometer-based results vs TRC recordings have shown that accelerometers installed on the bogie are the best compromise between proximity to the source and insensitivity to impulsive noise. It was found that two vertical bogie accelerometers (left and right) provide a good quantitative estimate of vertical alignment and that strong correlations with TRC measurements exist for lateral MEMS accelerometer measurements (horizontal alignment). These findings suggest that two bogie MEMS accelerometers with vertical and lateral measurement axes are effective in estimating geographical distributions of vertical/horizontal alignment.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2024

A Stochastic-MILP dispatch optimization model for Concentrated Solar Thermal under uncertainty

Concentrated Solar Thermal (CST) offers a promising solution for large-scale solar energy utilization as Thermal Energy Storage (TES) enables electricity generation independently of daily solar fluctuations, shifting to high-priced electricity intervals. The development of dispatch planning tools is mandatory to account for uncertainties associated with solar irradiation and electricity price forecasts as well as limited storage capacity. This study proposes the Stochastic Mixed Integer Linear Program (SMILP) to maximize expected profit within a specified scenario space. The SMILP scenario space is generated by different Empirical Cumulative Distribution Function percentiles of the potential solar energy to accumulate in storage and the expected profit is estimated using the Sample Average Approximation (SAA) method. SMILP exhibits robust performance, however, its computational time poses a challenge. Thus, three heuristic solutions are developed which run a set of deterministic optimizations on different historical weather profiles to generate candidate dispatching plans (DPs). The candidate DP with the best average performance on all profiles is then selected. The new methods were applied to a case study for a 115 MW CST plant in South Australia. When the historical database has a limited set of historical weather profiles, the SMILP achieves 6% to 9% higher profit than the closest benchmark when the DP is applied to novel weather conditions. With a large historical weather data, the performance of SMILP and Heuristic-2 becomes nearly identical because the SMILP can only utilize a limited number of trajectories for optimization without becoming computationally infeasible. In this case, Heuristic-2 emerges a practical alternative, since it provides similar average profit in a reasonable time (saving about 7 hours in computing time).

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

Heliostat-field soiling predictions and cleaning resource optimization for solar tower plants

This paper presents a novel methodology for characterizing soiling losses through experimental measurements. Soiling predictions were obtained by calibrating a soiling model based on field measurements from a 50 MW modular solar tower project in Mount Isa, Australia. The study found that the mean predicted soiling rate for horizontally fixed mirrors was 0.12 percentage points per day (pp/d) during low dust seasons and 0.22 pp/d during high seasons. Autoregressive time series models were employed to extend two years of onsite meteorological measurements to a 10-year period, enabling the prediction of heliostat-field soiling rates. A fixed-frequency cleaning heuristic was applied to optimise the cleaning resources for various operational policies by balancing direct cleaning resource costs against the expected lost production, which was computed by averaging multiple simulated soiling loss trajectories. Analysis of resource usage showed that the cost of fuel and operator salaries contributed 42 % and 35 % respectively towards the cleaning cost. In addition, stowing heliostats in the horizontal position at night increased daily soiling rates by 114 % and the total cleaning costs by 51 % relative to vertically stowed heliostat-field. Under a simplified night-time-only power production configuration, the oversized solar field effectively charged the thermal storage during the day, despite reduced mirror reflectance due to soiling. These findings suggest that the plant can maintain efficient operation even with a reduced cleaning rate. Finally, it was observed that performing cleaning operations during the day led to a 7 % increase in the total cleaning cost compared to a night-time cleaning policy. This was primarily attributed to the need to park operational heliostats for cleaning.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Stochastic Soiling Loss Models for Heliostats in Concentrating Solar Power Plants

Reflectance losses on solar mirrors due to soiling are a significant challenge for Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. Soiling losses can vary significantly from site to site -- with (absolute) reflectance losses varying from fractions of a percentage point up to several percentage points per day (pp/day), a fact that has motivated several studies in soiling predictive modelling. Yet, existing studies have so far neglected the characterization of statistical uncertainty in their parameters and predictions. In this paper, two reflectance loss models are proposed that model uncertainty: an extension of a previously developed physical model and a simplified model. A novel uncertainty characterization enables Maximum Likelihood Estimation techniques for parameter estimation for both models, and permits the estimation of parameter (and prediction) confidence intervals. The models are applied to data from ten soiling campaigns conducted at three Australian sites (Brisbane, Mount Isa, Wodonga). The simplified model produces high-quality predictions of soiling losses on novel data, while the semi-physical model performance is mixed. The statistical distributions of daily losses were estimated for different dust loadings. Under median conditions, the daily soiling losses for Brisbane, Mount Isa, and Wodonga are estimated as $0.53 \pm 0.66$, $0.08 \pm 0.08$, and $0.58 \pm 0.15$ pp/day, respectively. Yet, higher observed dust loadings can drive average losses as high as $2$ pp/day. Overall, the results suggest a relatively simple approach characterizing the statistical distributions of soiling losses using airborne dust measurements and short reflectance monitoring campaigns.

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