arXiv subjects

Michael Galarnyk

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Galarnyk.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

CARDINAL Predicts Cardiovascular Risk From Non-contrast Cardiac CT

Cardiovascular risk prediction remains limited by incomplete clinical data and imaging biomarkers that reduce computed tomography (CT) to a small number of handcrafted features. We developed CARDINAL (Cardiovascular Assessment via Representation learning from Deep Imaging with Nested Anatomical Latent embeddings), a clinically grounded framework that learns compact representations from routine non-contrast cardiac CT for major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) prediction. In 17,659 patients, CARDINAL was evaluated for 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year MACE prediction against American Heart Association (AHA) pooled cohort equations (PCE), AHA predicting risk of cardiovascular disease events (PREVENT), coronary artery calcium (CAC), segmentation-derived CT biomarkers, and 70-feature structural radiomics. Gains were largest at longer horizons. At 10 years, CARDINAL (joint) achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.866 $\pm$ 0.020 and an area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) of 0.890 $\pm$ 0.015, compared with an AUROC of 0.826 $\pm$ 0.023 and an AUPRC of 0.826 $\pm$ 0.022 for structural radiomics, the strongest baseline. CARDINAL also achieved the highest survival concordance index (C-index), 0.753 $\pm$ 0.015, and high-versus-low risk-tertile hazard ratio, 10.78 $\pm$ 3.16, with favorable reclassification and exploratory calibration. These findings suggest that non-contrast cardiac CT contains prognostic information beyond conventional risk equations, CAC scoring, and engineered imaging biomarkers.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2026

Inverse Learning of Latent Risk-Neutral Densities from Irregular Option Quotes

Accurate option prices do not imply accurate recovery of the latent risk-neutral density. We study this distinction with two complementary benchmarks. A controlled benchmark exposes simulator-truth densities for latent evaluation, while a chronological NIFTY benchmark tests only held-out market prices. A two-component lognormal mixture has the lowest aggregate price, $L^1$, Wasserstein, and fixed-tail errors on the synthetic benchmark. Learned operators retain narrower strengths: DeepONet reduces 1% quantile and variance error by 39.0% and 34.6% relative to the mixture, and a quote transformer reduces $L^1$ by 16.4% on the structurally misspecified Merton family. A numerical conditioning analysis explains why these rankings can differ: after enforcing mass and forward constraints, 95 of 126 pricing directions are numerically null, and two densities separated by $L^1 = 0.061$ produce identical prices on the covered strikes. On 524 held-out NIFTY calls, validation-selected test-time adaptation reduces DeepONet RMSE by 28.3%, but per-expiry mixture and SVI fits remain much more accurate. The evidence supports target-dependent inductive bias, not a universal winner.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

IPO-Mine: A Toolkit and Dataset for Section-Structured Analysis of Long, Multimodal IPO Documents

An Initial Public Offering (IPO) filing is a document released when a private firm goes public, allowing individual (retail) investors to purchase its shares. These filings describe a firm's business, financials, and risks and are long, multimodal documents with narrative text and images. Despite their importance to financial markets, there is no large-scale, standardized dataset or benchmark for studying IPO filings with modern language and multimodal models. These documents pose significant challenges: filings frequently exceed 500,000 tokens and lack consistent structural organization. We introduce the IPO-Toolkit, an open-source framework for downloading and parsing IPO filings into standardized section-structured text and extracted images. The toolkit segments filings, extracts embedded images, and produces structured outputs that enable large-scale, reproducible analysis workflows over long, multimodal documents. Using this infrastructure, we construct the IPO-Dataset, a large, section-structured, multimodal dataset covering more than 109,000 IPO filings and amendments from 1994 to 2026 and containing over 76,000 images. We establish structured evaluation tasks over extracted financial charts, including chart quality and misleadingness assessment. Our experiments show that state-of-the-art multimodal models often diverge from expert human judgments on these tasks, exposing alignment challenges in multimodal reasoning over long, real-world regulatory documents. Beyond benchmarking, the IPO-Dataset enables large-scale analysis of section-level textual variation and cross-industry differences in visual and textual disclosure practices. Our code, dataset, and website are publicly available under CC-BY-4.0.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Evolutionary Task Discovery: Advancing Reasoning Frontiers via Skill Composition and Complexity Scaling

The reasoning frontier of Large Language Models (LLMs) has advanced significantly through modern post-training paradigms (e.g., Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR)). However, the efficacy of these methods remains fundamentally constrained by the diversity and complexity of the training data. One practical solution is data synthesis; yet, prevalent methods relying on unstructured mutation or exploration suffer from homogeneity collapse, failing to systematically expand the reasoning frontier. To overcome this, we propose Evoutionary Task Discovery (EvoTD), a framework that treats data synthesis as a directed search over a dual-axis manifold of Algorithmic Skills and Complexity Attributes. We introduce structured evolutionary operators to navigate this space: a Crossover operator that synthesizes novel skill compositions to enhance diversity, and a Parametric Mutation operator that scales structural constraints (e.g., input size, tree depth) to drive robust generalization. Crucially, we integrate a dynamic Zone of Proximal Development filter, ensuring tasks lie within the learnable region of the model. Empirically, EvoTD delivers substantial reasoning gains that generalize consistently across model architectures, pretraining regimes, and scales, demonstrating that structured evolutionary curricula can effectively support reasoning improvement. We release our code on https://github.com/liqinye/EvoTD.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Central Bank Communications Globally

Central banks around the world play a crucial role in maintaining economic stability. Deciphering policy implications in their communications is essential, especially as misinterpretations can disproportionately impact vulnerable populations. To address this, we introduce the World Central Banks (WCB) dataset, the most comprehensive monetary policy corpus to date, comprising over 380k sentences from 25 central banks across diverse geographic regions, spanning 28 years of historical data. After uniformly sampling 1k sentences per bank (25k total) across all available years, we annotate and review each sentence using dual annotators, disagreement resolutions, and secondary expert reviews. We define three tasks: Stance Detection, Temporal Classification, and Uncertainty Estimation, with each sentence annotated for all three. We benchmark seven Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) and nine Large Language Models (LLMs) (Zero-Shot, Few-Shot, and with annotation guide) on these tasks, running 15,075 benchmarking experiments. We find that a model trained on aggregated data across banks significantly surpasses a model trained on an individual bank's data, confirming the principle "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts." Additionally, rigorous human evaluations, error analyses, and predictive tasks validate our framework's economic utility. Our artifacts are accessible through the HuggingFace and GitHub under the CC-BY-NC-SA 4.0 license.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

FinCap: Topic-Aligned Captions for Short-Form Financial YouTube Videos

We evaluate multimodal large language models (MLLMs) for topic-aligned captioning in financial short-form videos (SVs) by testing joint reasoning over transcripts (T), audio (A), and video (V). Using 624 annotated YouTube SVs, we assess all seven modality combinations (T, A, V, TA, TV, AV, TAV) across five topics: main recommendation, sentiment analysis, video purpose, visual analysis, and financial entity recognition. Video alone performs strongly on four of five topics, underscoring its value for capturing visual context and effective cues such as emotions, gestures, and body language. Selective pairs such as TV or AV often surpass TAV, implying that too many modalities may introduce noise. These results establish the first baselines for financial short-form video captioning and illustrate the potential and challenges of grounding complex visual cues in this domain. All code and data can be found on our Github under the CC-BY-NC-SA 4.0 license.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

ConfReady: A RAG based Assistant and Dataset for Conference Checklist Responses

The ARR Responsible NLP Research checklist website states that the "checklist is designed to encourage best practices for responsible research, addressing issues of research ethics, societal impact and reproducibility." Answering the questions is an opportunity for authors to reflect on their work and make sure any shared scientific assets follow best practices. Ideally, considering a checklist before submission can favorably impact the writing of a research paper. However, previous research has shown that self-reported checklist responses don't always accurately represent papers. In this work, we introduce ConfReady, a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) application that can be used to empower authors to reflect on their work and assist authors with conference checklists. To evaluate checklist assistants, we curate a dataset of 1,975 ACL checklist responses, analyze problems in human answers, and benchmark RAG and Large Language Model (LM) based systems on an evaluation subset. Our code is released under the AGPL-3.0 license on GitHub, with documentation covering the user interface and PyPI package.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

VideoConviction: A Multimodal Benchmark for Human Conviction and Stock Market Recommendations

Social media has amplified the reach of financial influencers known as "finfluencers," who share stock recommendations on platforms like YouTube. Understanding their influence requires analyzing multimodal signals like tone, delivery style, and facial expressions, which extend beyond text-based financial analysis. We introduce VideoConviction, a multimodal dataset with 6,000+ expert annotations, produced through 457 hours of human effort, to benchmark multimodal large language models (MLLMs) and text-based large language models (LLMs) in financial discourse. Our results show that while multimodal inputs improve stock ticker extraction (e.g., extracting Apple's ticker AAPL), both MLLMs and LLMs struggle to distinguish investment actions and conviction--the strength of belief conveyed through confident delivery and detailed reasoning--often misclassifying general commentary as definitive recommendations. While high-conviction recommendations perform better than low-conviction ones, they still underperform the popular S\&P 500 index fund. An inverse strategy--betting against finfluencer recommendations--outperforms the S\&P 500 by 6.8\% in annual returns but carries greater risk (Sharpe ratio of 0.41 vs. 0.65). Our benchmark enables a diverse evaluation of multimodal tasks, comparing model performance on both full video and segmented video inputs. This enables deeper advancements in multimodal financial research. Our code, dataset, and evaluation leaderboard are available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license.

cs.MM↗

arXiv2025

How Inclusively do LMs Perceive Social and Moral Norms?

This paper discusses and contains offensive content. Language models (LMs) are used in decision-making systems and as interactive assistants. However, how well do these models making judgements align with the diversity of human values, particularly regarding social and moral norms? In this work, we investigate how inclusively LMs perceive norms across demographic groups (e.g., gender, age, and income). We prompt 11 LMs on rules-of-thumb (RoTs) and compare their outputs with the existing responses of 100 human annotators. We introduce the Absolute Distance Alignment Metric (ADA-Met) to quantify alignment on ordinal questions. We find notable disparities in LM responses, with younger, higher-income groups showing closer alignment, raising concerns about the representation of marginalized perspectives. Our findings highlight the importance of further efforts to make LMs more inclusive of diverse human values. The code and prompts are available on GitHub under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

FiNER-ORD: Financial Named Entity Recognition Open Research Dataset

Over the last two decades, the development of the CoNLL-2003 named entity recognition (NER) dataset has helped enhance the capabilities of deep learning and natural language processing (NLP). The finance domain, characterized by its unique semantic and lexical variations for the same entities, presents specific challenges to the NER task; thus, a domain-specific customized dataset is crucial for advancing research in this field. In our work, we develop the first high-quality English Financial NER Open Research Dataset (FiNER-ORD). We benchmark multiple pre-trained language models (PLMs) and large-language models (LLMs) on FiNER-ORD. We believe our proposed FiNER-ORD dataset will open future opportunities to use FiNER-ORD as a benchmark for financial domain-specific NER and NLP tasks. Our dataset, models, and code are publicly available on GitHub and Hugging Face under CC BY-NC 4.0 license.

cs.CL↗