arXiv subjects

Michael Herzog

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Herzog.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Aardvark weather: end-to-end data-driven weather forecasting

Weather forecasting is critical for a range of human activities including transportation, agriculture, industry, as well as the safety of the general public. Machine learning models have the potential to transform the complex weather prediction pipeline, but current approaches still rely on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, limiting forecast speed and accuracy. Here we demonstrate that a machine learning model can replace the entire operational NWP pipeline. Aardvark Weather, an end-to-end data-driven weather prediction system, ingests raw observations and outputs global gridded forecasts and local station forecasts. Further, it can be optimised end-to-end to maximise performance over quantities of interest. Global forecasts outperform an operational NWP baseline for multiple variables and lead times. Local station forecasts are skillful up to ten days lead time and achieve comparable and often lower errors than a post-processed global NWP baseline and a state-of-the-art end-to-end forecasting system with input from human forecasters. These forecasts are produced with a remarkably simple neural process model using just 8% of the input data and three orders of magnitude less compute than existing NWP and hybrid AI-NWP methods. We anticipate that Aardvark Weather will be the starting point for a new generation of end-to-end machine learning models for medium-range forecasting that will reduce computational costs by orders of magnitude and enable the rapid and cheap creation of bespoke models for users in a variety of fields, including for the developing world where state-of-the-art local models are not currently available.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

CLAD: A Contrastive Learning based Approach for Background Debiasing

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have achieved superhuman performance in multiple vision tasks, especially image classification. However, unlike humans, CNNs leverage spurious features, such as background information to make decisions. This tendency creates different problems in terms of robustness or weak generalization performance. Through our work, we introduce a contrastive learning-based approach (CLAD) to mitigate the background bias in CNNs. CLAD encourages semantic focus on object foregrounds and penalizes learning features from irrelavant backgrounds. Our method also introduces an efficient way of sampling negative samples. We achieve state-of-the-art results on the Background Challenge dataset, outperforming the previous benchmark with a margin of 4.1\%. Our paper shows how CLAD serves as a proof of concept for debiasing of spurious features, such as background and texture (in supplementary material).

cs.CV↗

arXiv2019

One-shot learning and behavioral eligibility traces in sequential decision making

In many daily tasks we make multiple decisions before reaching a goal. In order to learn such sequences of decisions, a mechanism to link earlier actions to later reward is necessary. Reinforcement learning theory suggests two classes of algorithms solving this credit assignment problem: In classic temporal-difference learning, earlier actions receive reward information only after multiple repetitions of the task, whereas models with eligibility traces reinforce entire sequences of actions from a single experience (one-shot). Here we asked whether humans use eligibility traces. We developed a novel paradigm to directly observe which actions and states along a multi-step sequence are reinforced after a single reward. By focusing our analysis on those states for which RL with and without eligibility trace make qualitatively distinct predictions, we find direct behavioral (choice probability) and physiological (pupil dilation) signatures of reinforcement learning with eligibility trace across multiple sensory modalities.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2019

Bayesian regression explains how human participants handle parameter uncertainty

The human brain copes with sensory uncertainty in accordance with Bayes' rule. However, it is unknown how the brain makes predictions in the presence of parameter uncertainty. Here, we tested whether and how humans take parameter uncertainty into account in a regression task. Participants extrapolated a parabola from a limited number of noisy points, shown on a computer screen. The quadratic parameter was drawn from a prior distribution, unknown to the observers. We tested whether human observers take full advantage of the given information, including the likelihood function of the observed points and the prior distribution of the quadratic parameter. We compared human performance with Bayesian regression, which is the (Bayes) optimal solution to this problem, and three sub-optimal models, namely maximum likelihood regression, prior regression and maximum a posteriori regression, which are simpler to compute. Our results clearly show that humans use Bayesian regression. We further investigated several variants of Bayesian regression models depending on how the generative noise is treated and found that participants act in line with the more sophisticated version.

q-bio.NC↗