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Michael J. Keith

Publications and source records attributed to Michael J. Keith.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Time-Correlated Profile Variability in the MeerKAT Pulsar Timing Array

Long-term pulse-profile variability has emerged as a potentially important source of uncertainty for high-precision pulsar timing, as changes in the integrated pulse shape can bias pulse times of arrival and affect the sensitivity of pulsar timing arrays to nanohertz gravitational waves. We present a systematic search for long-term pulse-profile variability in the six-year MeerKAT Pulsar Timing Array data, analysing observations of 84 millisecond pulsars using a two-dimensional Gaussian-process framework to identify coherent temporal and phase-dependent profile evolution. We detect pulse-profile variability in 18 pulsars. Using the frequency dependence of the observed profile evolution together with scattering simulations, we classify six pulsars as exhibiting chromatic variability consistent with interstellar scattering, while the remaining twelve display predominantly frequency-independent behaviour suggestive of intrinsic changes in the pulsar emission process. Correcting for the S/N-dependent detection bias, we infer that intrinsic profile variability is substantially more common than implied by the detected sample, with at least 40 per cent of millisecond pulsars exhibiting intrinsic profile variability at the 95 per cent credible level. Motivated by the association between pulse-profile variability and spin-down-rate ($\dot{\nu}$) switching in canonical pulsars, we search for corresponding $\dot{\nu}$ variations but find no statistically significant detections. Simulations indicate that the expected variations remain below the sensitivity of current datasets, although unresolved changes may contribute to weak achromatic timing noise. These results suggest that long-term pulse-profile variability may be common among millisecond pulsars and should be explicitly modelled in future high-precision pulsar-timing experiments.

astro-ph.HE

JUG: JAX-based Unified pulsar timinG

We present JUG (JAX-based Unified pulsar timinG), a JAX-based, fully independent pulsar timing package emphasising speed and ease of use, designed to confidently handle the increasingly large and complex pulsar timing array datasets that are being created in the pulsar timing field. JUG implements the entire pulsar timing pipeline itself, from data handling and clock corrections through to the timing model and fitting, without relying on other timing software. It enables Pythonic programming at the speed of compiled code, is GPU-capable, and can be operated via a Python API or an interactive GUI. A user of JUG can interactively explore data, fit timing models with complex stochastic noise, model deterministic signals such as continuous gravitational waves, and obtain accurate point estimates of the parameters of the stochastic processes present, thereby bridging frequentist timing and Bayesian noise analysis. JUG is faster than PINT by more than fifty times and is comparably fast to Tempo2, can handle millions of arrival times, agrees with PINT at the picosecond level, and can reliably recover known timing model and noise parameter values. In this paper we describe its design, performance, and validation, and demonstrate its advantages for pulsar timing data analysis.

astro-ph.IM

The SKAO Pulsar Timing Array

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are ensembles of millisecond pulsars observed for years to decades. The primary goal of PTAs is to study gravitational-wave astronomy at nanohertz frequencies, with secondary goals of undertaking other fundamental tests of physics and astronomy. Recently, compelling evidence has emerged in established PTA experiments for the presence of a gravitational-wave background. To accelerate a confident detection of such a signal and then study gravitational-wave emitting sources, it is necessary to observe a larger number of millisecond pulsars to greater timing precision. The SKAO telescopes, which will be a factor of three to four greater in sensitivity compared to any other southern hemisphere facility, are poised to make such an impact. In this chapter, we motivate an SKAO pulsar timing array (SKAO PTA) experiment. We discuss the classes of gravitational waves present in PTA observations and how an SKAO PTA can detect and study them. We then describe the sources that can produce these signals. We discuss the astrophysical noise sources that must be mitigated to undertake the most sensitive searches. We then describe a realistic PTA experiment implemented with the SKA and place it in context alongside other PTA experiments likely ongoing in the 2030s. We describe the techniques necessary to search for gravitational waves in the SKAO PTA and motivate how very long baseline interferometry can improve the sensitivity of an SKAO PTA. The SKAO PTA will provide a view of the Universe complementary to those of the other large facilities of the 2030s.

astro-ph.IM

The Thousand-Pulsar-Array programme on MeerKAT XIX: Single-pulse data analysis, nulling and pulse energy distributions

We present the Thousand Pulsar Array (TPA) single-pulse data set, obtained with the MeerKAT radio telescope and comprising time-series observations of 1192 pulsars, typically containing ~1000 consecutive pulses per source. We describe the MeerTime Single Pulse software pipeline which calibrates the data and automatically excises interference signals to produce data products suitable for typical single-pulse studies. To demonstrate the capabilities of the dataset, we carry out a population-level study of phase-averaged single-pulse energy distributions and nulling behaviour. Pulse energy distributions are modelled within a Bayesian framework choosing from a range of intrinsic energy distributions, and including an explicit nulling fraction. We find that approximately half of the pulsars require multi-component intrinsic energy distributions, while the remainder are consistent with single-component models. Nulling is detected or constrained for most pulsars in the sample, and both the occurrence and inferred nulling fraction show systematic variation across the P-$\dot{P}$ diagram. In particular, nulling fractions increase with spin period and exhibit only a weak dependence on period derivative. We also examine trends in the preferred forms of pulse energy distributions as a function of spin-down luminosity, finding modest evidence for population-level evolution. Estimates of single-pulse luminosities indicate that individual pulses can exceed the long-term average luminosity by large factors, particularly for low-$\dot{E}$ pulsars. These results characterise the statistical properties of single-pulse emission across a large pulsar sample and highlight the limitations of phase-averaged energy distributions for capturing the full complexity of pulsar emission variability.

astro-ph.HE

The SKAO Pulsar Timing Array

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are ensembles of millisecond pulsars observed for years to decades. The primary goal of PTAs is to study gravitational-wave astronomy at nanohertz frequencies, with secondary goals of undertaking other fundamental tests of physics and astronomy. Recently, compelling evidence has emerged in established PTA experiments for the presence of a gravitational-wave background. To accelerate a confident detection of such a signal and then study gravitational-wave emitting sources, it is necessary to observe a larger number of millisecond pulsars to greater timing precision. The SKAO telescopes, which will be a factor of three to four greater in sensitivity compared to any other southern hemisphere facility, are poised to make such an impact. In this chapter, we motivate an SKAO pulsar timing array (SKAO PTA) experiment. We discuss the classes of gravitational waves present in PTA observations and how an SKAO PTA can detect and study them. We then describe the sources that can produce these signals. We discuss the astrophysical noise sources that must be mitigated to undertake the most sensitive searches. We then describe a realistic PTA experiment implemented with the SKA and place it in context alongside other PTA experiments likely ongoing in the 2030s. We describe the techniques necessary to search for gravitational waves in the SKAO PTA and motivate how very long baseline interferometry can improve the sensitivity of an SKAO PTA. The SKAO PTA will provide a view of the Universe complementary to those of the other large facilities of the 2030s.

astro-ph.HE

A glitch in the millisecond pulsar J0900$-$3144

We report the detection of a glitch in the millisecond pulsar (MSP) PSR J0900$-$3144, which is included in the European, MeerKAT and Parkes pulsar timing array experiments. The dataset combines observations from the MeerKAT, Nançay, Lovell, and Murriyang telescopes, spanning a total baseline of approximately 14 years. The glitch occurred on MJD~59942(17), with a measured fractional spin frequency step of $Δν_g / ν=1.15(13) \times 10^{-12}$. This event represents the third glitch detected in a MSP, following those in PSRs B1821$-$24A and J0613$-$0200. Although smaller in amplitude than the previous two, the glitch in PSR J0900$-$3144 is of a comparable order of magnitude. The updated MSP glitch rate is $2.5(1)\times 10^{-3}$ glitches per pulsar per year, which suggests it is likely current PTAs will detect another MSP glitch within five years. Using simulations, we demonstrate that such small glitches can go undetected, especially in short datasets such as those from new PTAs, and can bias the inferred achromatic noise model parameters, potentially leading to the down-weighting of the pulsar in gravitational wave background searches.

astro-ph.HE

The Thousand-Pulsar-Array programme on MeerKAT -- XVIII. Complex sub-pulse modulation patterns, bi-drifting and mode changing of nine radio pulsars

We present a detailed analysis of sub-pulse modulations in nine pulsars which show evidence of changes in sub-pulse drift direction as a function of pulse longitude in the Thousand Pulsar Array single pulse survey with MeerKAT. We confirm that all of these are consistent with persistent drift direction changes. These 'bi-drifting' pulsars present a challenge to the classical carousel model for sub-pulse drifting. In general, bi-drifting in this expanded sample is less clear than some of the previously published cases, which we attribute to narrower profile widths ($<20$ degrees) or smaller $P_3$ values (close to 2$P$). However, given the broad variety of pulse shapes and drift behaviours across the pulsar population, it is unsurprising that the phenomenon is not limited to only those where it can most easily be detected. Four of our samples show at least two emission modes with different profile shapes and drift properties, which seems to be a relatively common feature of bi-drifting pulsars. We also find jumps in sub-pulse phase between adjacent components in two pulsars. In addition to our MeerKAT L-band data, we used GMRT observations for four, and MeerKAT UHF observations for two of these pulsars to investigate the frequency dependence of sub-pulse drift. We find subtle changes in the drift as a function of frequency, but no clear overall pattern. Looking at the distribution of bi-drifting pulsars over $P$, $\dot{P}$ and $P_3$ suggests they are consistent with the underlying population of all drifting pulsars.

astro-ph.HE

Measuring pulsar profile variations with 2-D Gaussian process regression

Time-correlated variations in the pulse profiles of radio pulsars provide insights into changes in their magnetospheres. For a small number of pulsars (~20), these variations have been shown to correlate with spin-down rate. Many of these profile changes involve small (few percent) variations in the relative intensity of different profile components, and hence tools such as Gaussian process regression have been employed to separate the time-correlated profile variation from intrinsic noise. In this paper, we present a computationally efficient approximation of a 2-D Gaussian process model that enhances sensitivity by simultaneously tracking time- and phase-correlated signals. Applying this model to 26 pulsars observed at the Jodrell Bank Observatory, we detect significant profile shape variations in 21 pulsars. Using principal component analysis, we confirm spin-down correlated shape variations in 11 pulsars where this had been previously observed. Additionally, we find evidence of spin-down correlated shape changes in 7 pulsars for the first time (PSRs B0105+65, B0611+22, B0626+24, B1740-03, B1826-17, B1917+00, and B2148+63). We look in greater detail at PSR B0740-28, where the correlation between profile shape and spin-down itself seems to switch between quasi-stable states. Notably the profile shape associated with greater spin-down seems to invert at times, presenting a challenge to our understanding of the physical processes at work.

astro-ph.HE

A 34 Yr Timing Solution of the Redback Millisecond Pulsar Terzan 5A

We present a 34-year timing solution of the redback pulsar system Terzan 5A (Ter5A). Ter5A, also known as B1744$-$24A or J1748$-$2446A, has a 11.56 ms pulse period, a $\sim$0.1 solar mass dwarf companion star, and an orbital period of 1.82 hours. Ter5A displays highly variable eclipses and orbital perturbations. Using new timing techniques, we have determined a phase-connected timing solution for this system over 34 years. This is the longest ever published for a redback pulsar. We find that the pulsar's spin variability is much larger than most globular cluster pulsars. In fact, of the nine redback pulsars with published or in preparation long-term timing solutions, Ter5A is by far the noisiest. We see no evidence of strong correlations between orbital and spin variability of the pulsar. We also find that long-term astrometric timing measurements are likely too contaminated by this variability to be usable, and therefore require careful short-term timing to determine reasonable positions. Finally, we measure an orbital period contraction of $-2.5(3) \times 10^{-13}$, which is likely dominated by the general relativistic orbital decay of the system. The effects of the orbital variability due to the redback nature of the pulsar are not needed to explain the observed orbital period derivative, but they are constrained to less than $\sim$30% of the observed value.

astro-ph.HE

Tackling artefacts in the timing of relativistic pulsar binaries: towards the SKA

Common signal-processing approximations produce artefacts when timing pulsars in relativistic binary systems, especially edge-on systems with tight orbits, such as the Double Pulsar. In this paper, we use extensive simulations to explore various patterns that arise from the inaccuracies of approximations made when correcting dispersion and Shapiro delay. In a relativistic binary, the velocity of the pulsar projected onto the line-of-sight varies significantly on short time scales, causing rapid changes in the apparent pulsar spin frequency, which is used to convert dispersive delays to pulsar rotational phase shifts. A well-known example of the consequences of this effect is the artificial variation of dispersion measure (DM) with binary phase, first observed in the Double Pulsar 20 years ago. We show that ignoring the Doppler shift of the spin frequency when computing the dispersive phase shift exactly reproduces the shape and magnitude of the reported DM variations. We also simulate and study two additional effects of much smaller magnitude, which are caused by the assumption that the spin frequency used to correct dispersion is constant over the duration of the sub-integration and over the observed bandwidth. We show that failure to account for these two effects leads to orbital phase-dependent dispersive smearing that leads to apparent orbital DM variations. The functional form of the variation depends on the orbital eccentricity. In addition, we find that a polynomial approximation of the timing model is unable to accurately describe the Shapiro delay of edge-on systems with orbits less than 4 hours, which poses problems for the measurements of timing parameters, most notably the Shapiro delay. This will be a potential issue for sensitive facilities like the FAST and the forthcoming Square Kilometre Array (SKA); therefore, a more accurate phase predictor is indispensable.

astro-ph.HE

The MeerKAT Pulsar Timing Array: The first search for gravitational waves with the MeerKAT radio telescope

Pulsar Timing Arrays search for nanohertz-frequency gravitational waves by regularly observing ensembles of millisecond pulsars over many years to look for correlated timing residuals. Recently the first evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background has been presented by the major Arrays, with varying levels of significance ($\sim$2-4$σ$). In this paper we present the results of background searches with the MeerKAT Pulsar Timing Array. Although of limited duration (4.5 yr), the $\sim$ 250,000 arrival times with a median error of just $3 μ$s on 83 pulsars make it very sensitive to spatial correlations. Detection of a gravitational wave background requires careful modelling of noise processes to ensure that any correlations represent a fit to the underlying background and not other misspecified processes. Under different assumptions about noise processes we can produce either what appear to be compelling Hellings-Downs correlations of high significance (3-3.4$σ$) with a spectrum close to that which is predicted, or surprisingly, under slightly different assumptions, ones that are insignificant. This appears to be related to the fact that many of the highest precision MeerKAT Pulsar Timing Array pulsars are in close proximity and dominate the detection statistics. The sky-averaged characteristic strain amplitude of the correlated signal in our most significant model is $h_{c, {\rm yr}} = 7.5^{+0.8}_{-0.9} \times 10^{-15}$ measured at a spectral index of $α=-0.26$, decreasing to $h_{c, {\rm yr}} = 4.8^{+0.8}_{-0.9} \times 10^{-15}$ when assessed at the predicted $α=-2/3$. These data will be valuable as the International Pulsar Timing Array project explores the significance of gravitational wave detections and their dependence on the assumed noise models.

astro-ph.HE

The MeerKAT Pulsar Timing Array: The $4.5$-year data release and the noise and stochastic signals of the millisecond pulsar population

Pulsar timing arrays are ensembles of regularly observed millisecond pulsars timed to high precision. Each pulsar in an array could be affected by a suite of noise processes, most of which are astrophysically motivated. Analysing them carefully can be used to understand these physical processes. However, the primary purpose of these experiments is to detect signals that are common to all pulsars, in particular signals associated with a stochastic gravitational wave background. To detect this, it is paramount to appropriately characterise other signals that may otherwise impact array sensitivity or cause a spurious detection. Here we describe the second data release and first detailed noise analysis of the pulsars in the MeerKAT Pulsar Timing Array, comprising high-cadence and high-precision observations of $83$ millisecond pulsars over $4.5$ years. We use this analysis to search for a common signal in the data, finding a process with an amplitude of $\log_{10}\mathrm{A_{CURN}} = -14.25^{+0.21}_{-0.36}$ and spectral index $γ_\mathrm{CURN} = 3.60^{+1.31}_{-0.89}$. Fixing the spectral index at the value predicted for a background produced by the inspiral of binary supermassive black holes, we measure the amplitude to be $\log_{10}\mathrm{A_{CURN}} = -14.28^{+0.21}_{-0.21}$ at a significance expressed as a Bayes factor of $\ln(\mathcal{B}) = 4.46$. Under both assumptions, the amplitude that we recover is larger than those reported by other PTA experiments. We use the results of this analysis to forecast our sensitivity to a gravitational wave background possessing the spectral properties of the common signal we have measured.

astro-ph.HE

The MeerKAT Pulsar Timing Array: Maps of the gravitational-wave sky with the 4.5 year data release

In an accompanying publication, the MeerKAT Pulsar Timing Array (MPTA) collaboration reports tentative evidence for the presence of a stochastic gravitational-wave background, following observations of similar signals from the European and Indian Pulsar Timing Arrays, NANOGrav, the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array and the Chinese Pulsar Timing Array. If such a gravitational-wave background signal originates from a population of inspiraling supermassive black-hole binaries, the signal may be anisotropically distributed on the sky. In this Letter we evaluate the anisotropy of the MPTA signal using a spherical harmonic decomposition. We discuss complications arising from the covariance between pulsar pairs and regularisation of the Fisher matrix. Applying our method to the 4.5 yr dataset, we obtain two forms of sky maps for the three most sensitive MPTA frequency bins between 7 -21 nHz. Our "clean maps'' estimate the distribution of gravitational-wave strain power with minimal assumptions. Our radiometer maps answer the question: is there a statistically significant point source? We find a noteworthy hotspot in the 7 nHz clean map with a $p$-factor of $p=0.015$ (not including trial factors). Future observations are required to determine if this hotspot is of astrophysical origin.

astro-ph.HE

Measuring glitch recoveries and braking indices with Bayesian model selection

For a selection of 35 pulsars with large spin-up glitches ($Δν/ν\geq10^{-6}$), which are monitored by the Jodrell Bank Observatory, we analyse 157 glitches and their recoveries. All parameters are measured consistently and we choose the best model to describe the post-glitch recovery based on Bayesian evidence. We present updated glitch epochs, sizes, changes of spin down rate, exponentially recovering components (amplitude and corresponding timescale) when present, as well as pulsars' second frequency derivatives and their glitch associated changes if detected. We discuss the different observed styles of post-glitch recovery as well as some particularly interesting sources. Several correlations are revealed between glitch parameters and pulsar spin parameters, including a very strong correlation between a pulsar's interglitch $|\ddotν|$ and $\dotν$, as well as between the glitch-induced spin-down rate change $Δ\dotν_{\rm p}$ that does not relax exponentially and $\dotν$. We find that the ratio $\left|Δ\dotν_{\mathrm{p}}/\ddotν\right|$ can be used as an estimate of glitch recurrence times, especially for those pulsars for which there are indications of a characteristic glitch size and interglitch waiting time. We calculate the interglitch braking index $n$ and find that pulsars with large glitches typically have $n$ greater than $3$, suggesting that internal torques dominate the rotational evolution between glitches. The external torque, e.g. from electromagnetic dipole radiation, could dominate the observed $\ddotν$ for the youngest pulsars ($\lesssim10^{4}\;\mathrm{yr}$), which may be expected to display $n\sim3$.

astro-ph.HE

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Chromatic Gaussian Process Noise Models for Six Pulsars

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are designed to detect low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs). GWs induce achromatic signals in PTA data, meaning that the timing delays do not depend on radio-frequency. However, pulse arrival times are also affected by radio-frequency dependent "chromatic" noise from sources such as dispersion measure (DM) and scattering delay variations. Furthermore, the characterization of GW signals may be influenced by the choice of chromatic noise model for each pulsar. To better understand this effect, we assess if and how different chromatic noise models affect achromatic noise properties in each pulsar. The models we compare include existing DM models used by NANOGrav and noise models used for the European PTA Data Release 2 (EPTA DR2). We perform this comparison using a subsample of six pulsars from the NANOGrav 15 yr data set, selecting the same six pulsars as from the EPTA DR2 six-pulsar dataset. We find that the choice of chromatic noise model noticeably affects the achromatic noise properties of several pulsars. This is most dramatic for PSR J1713+0747, where the amplitude of its achromatic red noise lowers from $\log_{10}A_{\text{RN}} = -14.1^{+0.1}_{-0.1}$ to $-14.7^{+0.3}_{-0.5}$, and the spectral index broadens from $γ_{\text{RN}} = 2.6^{+0.5}_{-0.4}$ to $γ_{\text{RN}} = 3.5^{+1.2}_{-0.9}$. We also compare each pulsar's noise properties with those inferred from the EPTA DR2, using the same models. From the discrepancies, we identify potential areas where the noise models could be improved. These results highlight the potential for custom chromatic noise models to improve PTA sensitivity to GWs.

astro-ph.HE

A Gaussian-processes approach to fitting for time-variable spherical solar wind in pulsar timing data

Propagation effects are one of the main sources of noise in high-precision pulsar timing. For pulsars below an ecliptic latitude of $5^\circ$, the ionised plasma in the solar wind can introduce dispersive delays of order 100 microseconds around solar conjunction at an observing frequency of 300 MHz. A common approach to mitigate this assumes a spherical solar wind with a time-constant amplitude. However, this has been shown to be insufficient to describe the solar wind. We present a linear, Gaussian-process piecewise Bayesian approach to fit a spherical solar wind of time-variable amplitude, which has been implemented in the pulsar software run_enterprise. Through simulations, we find that the current EPTA+InPTA data combination is not sensitive to such variations; however, solar wind variations will become important in the near future with the addition of new InPTA data and data collected with the low-frequency LOFAR telescope. We also compare our results for different high-precision timing datasets (EPTA+InPTA, PPTA, and LOFAR) of three millisecond pulsars (J0030$+$0451, J1022$+$1001, J2145$-$0450), and find that the solar-wind amplitudes are generally consistent for any individual pulsar, but they can vary from pulsar to pulsar. Finally, we compare our results with those of an independent method on the same LOFAR data of the three millisecond pulsars. We find that differences between the results of the two methods can be mainly attributed to the modelling of dispersion variations in the interstellar medium, rather than the solar wind modelling.

astro-ph.HE

Search for gravitational wave signals from known pulsars in LIGO-Virgo O3 data using the 5n-vector ensemble method

The 5n-vector ensemble method is a multiple test for the targeted search of continuous gravitational waves from an ensemble of known pulsars. This method can improve the detection probability combining the results from individually undetectable pulsars if few signals are near the detection threshold. In this paper, we apply the 5n-vector ensemble method to the O3 data set from the LIGO and Virgo detectors considering an ensemble of 201 known pulsars. We find no evidence for a signal from the ensemble and set a 95% credible upper limit on the mean ellipticity assuming a common exponential distribution for the pulsars' ellipticities. Using two independent hierarchical Bayesian procedures, we find upper limits of $1.2 \times 10^{-9}$ and $2.5 \times 10^{-9}$ on the mean ellipticity for the 201 analyzed pulsars.

gr-qc

The Third Fermi Large Area Telescope Catalog of Gamma-ray Pulsars

We present 294 pulsars found in GeV data from the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. Another 33 millisecond pulsars (MSPs) discovered in deep radio searches of LAT sources will likely reveal pulsations once phase-connected rotation ephemerides are achieved. A further dozen optical and/or X-ray binary systems co-located with LAT sources also likely harbor gamma-ray MSPs. This catalog thus reports roughly 340 gamma-ray pulsars and candidates, 10% of all known pulsars, compared to $\leq 11$ known before Fermi. Half of the gamma-ray pulsars are young. Of these, the half that are undetected in radio have a broader Galactic latitude distribution than the young radio-loud pulsars. The others are MSPs, with 6 undetected in radio. Overall, >235 are bright enough above 50 MeV to fit the pulse profile, the energy spectrum, or both. For the common two-peaked profiles, the gamma-ray peak closest to the magnetic pole crossing generally has a softer spectrum. The spectral energy distributions tend to narrow as the spindown power $\dot E$ decreases to its observed minimum near $10^{33}$ erg s$^{-1}$, approaching the shape for synchrotron radiation from monoenergetic electrons. We calculate gamma-ray luminosities when distances are available. Our all-sky gamma-ray sensitivity map is useful for population syntheses. The electronic catalog version provides gamma-ray pulsar ephemerides, properties and fit results to guide and be compared with modeling results.

astro-ph.HE