arXiv subjects

Michael Jauch

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Jauch.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A generalized Bayesian approach to multiple changepoint analysis

We introduce a generalized Bayesian method for multiple changepoint analysis with a loss function inspired by multinomial logistic regression. The method does not require a specification of the data-generating process and avoids restrictive assumptions on the nature of changepoints. From the joint posterior distribution, we can make simultaneous inference on the locations of changepoints and the coefficients of a multinomial logistic regression model for distinguishing data across homogeneous segments. The multinomial logistic regression coefficients provide a familiar means of interpreting potentially complex changes. To select the number of changepoints, we leverage posterior summaries that measure whether the multinomial logistic classifier can distinguish data from either side of a potential changepoint. To simulate from the generalized posterior distribution, we present a Gibbs sampler based on P\'olya-Gamma data augmentation. We assess the accuracy and flexibility of our method through simulation studies featuring different types of changes and demonstrate its interpretability through applications to financial network data and topological data derived from nanoparticle videos.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Prior distributions for structured semi-orthogonal matrices

Statistical models for multivariate data often include a semi-orthogonal matrix parameter. In many applications, there is reason to expect that the semi-orthogonal matrix parameter satisfies a structural assumption such as sparsity or smoothness. From a Bayesian perspective, these structural assumptions should be incorporated into an analysis through the prior distribution. In this work, we introduce a general approach to constructing prior distributions for structured semi-orthogonal matrices that leads to tractable posterior inference via parameter-expanded Markov chain Monte Carlo. We draw on recent results from random matrix theory to establish a theoretical basis for the proposed approach. We then introduce specific prior distributions for incorporating sparsity or smoothness and illustrate their use through applications to biological and oceanographic data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Bayesian changepoint detection via logistic regression and the topological analysis of image series

We present a Bayesian method for multivariate changepoint detection that allows for simultaneous inference on the location of a changepoint and the coefficients of a logistic regression model for distinguishing pre-changepoint data from post-changepoint data. In contrast to many methods for multivariate changepoint detection, the proposed method is applicable to data of mixed type and avoids strict assumptions regarding the distribution of the data and the nature of the change. The regression coefficients provide an interpretable description of a potentially complex change. For posterior inference, the model admits a simple Gibbs sampling algorithm based on P\'olya-gamma data augmentation. We establish conditions under which the proposed method is guaranteed to recover the true underlying changepoint. As a testing ground for our method, we consider the problem of detecting topological changes in time series of images. We demonstrate that our proposed method BCLR, combined with a topological feature embedding, performs well on both simulated and real image data. The method also successfully recovers the location and nature of changes in more traditional changepoint tasks.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Properties of the generalized inverse Gaussian with applications to Monte Carlo simulation and distribution function evaluation

The generalized inverse Gaussian, denoted $\mathrm{GIG}(p, a, b)$, is a flexible family of distributions that includes the gamma, inverse gamma, and inverse Gaussian distributions as special cases. In addition to its applications in statistical modeling and its theoretical interest, the GIG often arises in computational statistics, especially in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for posterior inference. This article introduces two mixture representations for the GIG: one that expresses the distribution as a continuous mixture of inverse Gaussians and another that reveals a recursive relationship between GIGs with different values of $p$. The former representation forms the basis for a data augmentation scheme that leads to a geometrically ergodic Gibbs sampler for the GIG. This simple Gibbs sampler, which alternates between gamma and inverse Gaussian conditional distributions, can be incorporated within an encompassing MCMC algorithm when simulation from a GIG is required. The latter representation leads to algorithms for exact, rejection-free sampling as well as CDF evaluation for the GIG with half-integer $p.$ We highlight computational examples from the literature where these new algorithms could be applied.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2021

Mixture representations and Bayesian nonparametric inference for likelihood ratio ordered distributions

In this article, we introduce mixture representations for likelihood ratio ordered distributions. Essentially, the ratio of two probability densities, or mass functions, is monotone if and only if one can be expressed as a mixture of one-sided truncations of the other. To illustrate the practical value of the mixture representations, we address the problem of density estimation for likelihood ratio ordered distributions. In particular, we propose a nonparametric Bayesian solution which takes advantage of the mixture representations. The prior distribution is constructed from Dirichlet process mixtures and has large support on the space of pairs of densities satisfying the monotone ratio constraint. Posterior consistency holds under reasonable conditions on the prior specification and the true unknown densities. To our knowledge, this is the first posterior consistency result in the literature on order constrained inference. With a simple modification to the prior distribution, we can test the equality of two distributions against the alternative of likelihood ratio ordering. We develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior inference and demonstrate the method in a biomedical application.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Monte Carlo simulation on the Stiefel manifold via polar expansion

Motivated by applications to Bayesian inference for statistical models with orthogonal matrix parameters, we present $\textit{polar expansion},$ a general approach to Monte Carlo simulation from probability distributions on the Stiefel manifold. To bypass many of the well-established challenges of simulating from the distribution of a random orthogonal matrix $\boldsymbol{Q},$ we construct a distribution for an unconstrained random matrix $\boldsymbol{X}$ such that $\boldsymbol{Q}_X,$ the orthogonal component of the polar decomposition of $\boldsymbol{X},$ is equal in distribution to $\boldsymbol{Q}.$ The distribution of $\boldsymbol{X}$ is amenable to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation using standard methods, and an approximation to the distribution of $\boldsymbol{Q}$ can be recovered from a Markov chain on the unconstrained space. When combined with modern MCMC software, polar expansion allows for routine and flexible posterior inference in models with orthogonal matrix parameters. We find that polar expansion with adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is an order of magnitude more efficient than competing MCMC approaches in a benchmark protein interaction network application. We also propose a new approach to Bayesian functional principal components analysis which we illustrate in a meteorological time series application.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2018

Random orthogonal matrices and the Cayley transform

Random orthogonal matrices play an important role in probability and statistics, arising in multivariate analysis, directional statistics, and models of physical systems, among other areas. Calculations involving random orthogonal matrices are complicated by their constrained support. Accordingly, we parametrize the Stiefel and Grassmann manifolds, represented as subsets of orthogonal matrices, in terms of Euclidean parameters using the Cayley transform. We derive the necessary Jacobian terms for change of variables formulas. Given a density defined on the Stiefel or Grassmann manifold, these allow us to specify the corresponding density for the Euclidean parameters, and vice versa. As an application, we describe and illustrate through examples a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to simulating from distributions on the Stiefel and Grassmann manifolds. Finally, we establish an asymptotic independent normal approximation for the distribution of the Euclidean parameters which corresponds to the uniform distribution on the Stiefel manifold. This result contributes to the growing literature on normal approximations to the entries of random orthogonal matrices or transformations thereof.

math.ST↗

arXiv2016

Bayesian Optimization with Shape Constraints

In typical applications of Bayesian optimization, minimal assumptions are made about the objective function being optimized. This is true even when researchers have prior information about the shape of the function with respect to one or more argument. We make the case that shape constraints are often appropriate in at least two important application areas of Bayesian optimization: (1) hyperparameter tuning of machine learning algorithms and (2) decision analysis with utility functions. We describe a methodology for incorporating a variety of shape constraints within the usual Bayesian optimization framework and present positive results from simple applications which suggest that Bayesian optimization with shape constraints is a promising topic for further research.

stat.ML↗