arXiv subjects

Michael Mayer

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Mayer.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Sensitivity of the ECMWF seasonal forecast model to CO2 and anthropogenic aerosol forcings: Experimental design and impact on climate trends

Detection and attribution studies typically rely on free running climate models with modified anthropogenic forcings, yet they fail to reproduce key observed decadal trends. Despite reduced biases, higher predictive skill, large ensembles, and improved trends through frequent reinitialization, seasonal forecast models have not been used for this purpose. We introduce a new set of counterfactual seasonal hindcasts using the ECMWF coupled seasonal forecasting system based on alternative forcing scenarios by modifying atmospheric forcing and ocean and sea ice initial conditions. An observation based estimate of the forced ocean temperature signal is derived to amplify or remove this signal from the ocean initial conditions. Retrospective forecasts include a control configuration together with enhanced and reduced forcing experiments in which either CO2 increases together with doubled anthropogenic ocean warming or CO2 is fixed and the anthropogenic ocean-warming signal is removed. Additional experiments isolate aerosol forcing. The counterfactual hindcasts substantially alter long term temperature trends while largely preserving seasonal prediction skill, interannual variability, and model drift. Enhanced forcing strengthens several observed climate trends underestimated by the control, including top of atmosphere radiative fluxes and aspects of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation. However, the coupled atmosphere ocean system fails to sustain the strengthened tropical Pacific temperature gradient through Bjerknes feedbacks, suggesting a fundamental model limitation. Aerosol forcing has little impact, likely because indirect aerosol effects are omitted. These results establish counterfactual seasonal hindcasts as a powerful tool for dynamic attribution and diagnosing model deficiencies in responses to anthropogenic climate forcing.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Morphology-Driven optimization of Double Nanohole-based Plasmonic Optical Tweezers

Plasmonic Optical Tweezers based on Double Nanohole (DNH) structures are an emerging tool for trapping and interrogating single proteins under physiologically relevant conditions without the need for labeling or tethering. Nevertheless, their current performance is hindered by low signal-to-noise ratios for small proteins, fabrication variability, and photothermal instabilities, in part due to the required high laser power. To address these limitations, we present a comprehensive optimization of DNH parameters using parametric simulations and morphological characterization of experimentally fabricated DNHs. This approach ensures that the optimized geometries are experimentally realizable and compatible with established fabrication processes. We evaluate critical structural features, including gap width, gap length, cusp curvature, wedged tapers, adhesion layer and gold layer thicknesses, and the inclusion of pillars inside the nanoholes. By tailoring these variables, we aim to maximize the transmission variation upon trapping single nanoparticles or proteins and the local electric-field enhancement, thereby maximizing the optical force, while minimizing the required optical power. Two optimized DNH designs are proposed and simulated using a heuristic approach and a differential evolution algorithm. Both substantially outperform the reference structure and deliver 6.5- and 22-fold increases in sensitivity and 2.4- and 1.4-fold improvement in electric-field enhancement, respectively. These refinements provide a framework for developing efficient nanostructures to study single-protein dynamics with Plasmonic Optical Tweezers.

physics.bio-ph↗

arXiv2025

Shapley Values: Paired-Sampling Approximations

Originally introduced in cooperative game theory, Shapley values have become a very popular tool to explain machine learning predictions. Based on Shapley's fairness axioms, every input (feature component) gets a credit how it contributes to an output (prediction). These credits are then used to explain the prediction. The only limitation in computing the Shapley values (credits) for many different predictions is of computational nature. There are two popular sampling approximations, sampling KernelSHAP and sampling PermutationSHAP. Our first novel contributions are asymptotic normality results for these sampling approximations. Next, we show that the paired-sampling approaches provide exact results in case of interactions being of maximal order two. Furthermore, the paired-sampling PermutationSHAP possesses the additive recovery property, whereas its kernel counterpart does not.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

SHAP for additively modeled features in a boosted trees model

An important technique to explore a black-box machine learning (ML) model is called SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanation). SHAP values decompose predictions into contributions of the features in a fair way. We will show that for a boosted trees model with some or all features being additively modeled, the SHAP dependence plot of such a feature corresponds to its partial dependence plot up to a vertical shift. We illustrate the result with XGBoost.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Model Comparison and Calibration Assessment: User Guide for Consistent Scoring Functions in Machine Learning and Actuarial Practice

One of the main tasks of actuaries and data scientists is to build good predictive models for certain phenomena such as the claim size or the number of claims in insurance. These models ideally exploit given feature information to enhance the accuracy of prediction. This user guide revisits and clarifies statistical techniques to assess the calibration or adequacy of a model on the one hand, and to compare and rank different models on the other hand. In doing so, it emphasises the importance of specifying the prediction target functional at hand a priori (e.g. the mean or a quantile) and of choosing the scoring function in model comparison in line with this target functional. Guidance for the practical choice of the scoring function is provided. Striving to bridge the gap between science and daily practice in application, it focuses mainly on the pedagogical presentation of existing results and of best practice. The results are accompanied and illustrated by two real data case studies on workers' compensation and customer churn.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Watching Single Unmodified Enzymes at Work

Many proteins undergo conformational changes during their activity. A full understanding of the function of these proteins can only be obtained if different conformations and transitions between them can be monitored in aqueous solution, with adequate temporal resolution and, ideally, on a single-molecule level. Interrogating conformational dynamics of single proteins remains, however, exquisitely challenging and typically requires site-directed chemical modification combined with rigorous minimization of possible artifacts. These obstacles limit the number of single-protein investigations. The work presented here introduces an approach that traps single unmodified proteins from solution in a plasmonic hotspot and makes it possible to assign changes in refractive index to changes in protein conformation while monitoring these changes for minutes to hours with a temporal resolution at least as fast as 40 microseconds. The resulting single molecule data reveals that adenylate kinase employs a hidden enzymatic sub-cycle during catalysis, that citrate synthase populates a previously unknown intermediate conformation, which is more important for its enzymatic activity than its well-known open conformation, that hemoglobin transitions in several steps from its deoxygenated and rigid T state to its oxygenated and flexible R state, and that apo-calmodulin thermally unfolds and refolds in steps that correspond to conformational changes of individual protein domains.

physics.bio-ph↗

arXiv2020

Powering Electronic Devices from Salt Gradients in AA Battery-Sized Stacks of Hydrogel-Infused Paper

Strongly electric fish use gradients of ions within their bodies to generate stunning external electrical discharges; the most powerful of these organisms, the Atlantic torpedo ray, can produce pulses of over 1 kW from its electric organs. Despite extensive study of this phenomenon in nature, the development of artificial power generation schemes based on ion gradients for portable, wearable, or implantable human use has remained out of reach. Previously, inspired by the electric eel, we developed an artificial electric organ that generated electricity from ion gradients within stacked hydrogels and, like the eel, was optimized to deliver large voltages that exceeded 100 V. Due to its high internal resistance, the current of this power source was, however, too low to power standard electronics. Here we introduce an artificial electric organ that takes inspiration from the unique morphologies of torpedo rays for maximal current output. This power source uses a hybrid material of hydrogel-infused paper to create, organize, and reconfigure stacks of thin, arbitrarily large gel films both in series and in parallel. The resulting increase in electrical power by almost two orders of magnitude compared to the original eel-inspired design makes it possible to power electronic devices and establishes that biology's mechanism of generating significant electrical power can now be realized from benign and soft materials in a portable size.

physics.app-ph↗

arXiv2019

Analysis of the H.E.S.S. public data release with ctools

The ctools open-source software package was developed for the scientific analysis of astronomical data from Imaging Air Cherenkov Telescopes (IACTs), such as H.E.S.S., VERITAS, MAGIC, and the future Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA). To date, the software has been mainly tested using simulated CTA data; however, upon the public release of a small set of H.E.S.S. observations of the Crab nebula, MSH 15-52, RX J1713.7-3946, and PKS 2155-304 validation using real data is now possible. We analysed the data of the H.E.S.S. public data release using ctools version 1.6 and compared our results to those published by the H.E.S.S. Collaboration for the respective sources. We developed a parametric background model that satisfactorily describes the expected background rate as a function of reconstructed energy and direction for each observation. We used that model, and tested all analysis methods that are supported by ctools, including novel unbinned and joint or stacked binned analyses of the measured event energies and reconstructed directions, and classical On-Off analysis methods that are comparable to those used by the H.E.S.S. Collaboration. For all analysis methods, we found a good agreement between the ctools results and the H.E.S.S. Collaboration publications considering that they are not always directly comparable due to differences in the datatsets and event processing software. We also performed a joint analysis of H.E.S.S. and Fermi-LAT data of the Crab nebula, illustrating the multi-wavelength capacity of ctools. The joint Crab nebula spectrum is compatible with published literature values within the systematic uncertainties. We conclude that the ctools software is mature for the analysis of data from existing IACTs, as well as from the upcoming CTA.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2016

Beam-target double spin asymmetry in quasi-elastic electron scattering off the deuteron with CLAS

Quasi-elastic electron scattering on the deuteron is a benchmark reaction to test our understanding of deuteron structure and the properties and interactions of the two nucleons bound in the deuteron. The experimental data presented here can be used to test state-of-the-art models of the deuteron and the two-nucleon interaction in the final state after two-body breakup of the deuteron. Focusing on polarization degrees of freedom, we gain information on spin-momentum correlations in the deuteron ground state (due to the D-state admixture) and on the limits of the Impulse Approximation (IA) picture as it applies to measurements of spin-dependent observables like spin structure functions for bound nucleons. We measured the beam-target double spin asymmetry for quasi-elastic electron scattering off the deuteron at several beam energies using the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS) at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility. The deuterons were polarized along (or opposite to) the beam direction. The double spin asymmetries were measured as a function of photon virtuality , missing momentum, and the angle between the (inferred) "spectator" neutron and the momentum transfer direction. The results are compared with a recent model that includes Final State Interactions (FSI) using a complete parameterization of nucleon-nucleon scattering, as well as a simplified model using the Plane Wave Impulse Approximation (PWIA). We find overall good agreement with both the PWIA and FSI expectations at low to medium missing momenta, including the change of the asymmetry due to the contribution of the deuteron D-state at higher momenta. At the highest missing momenta, our data clearly agree better with the calculations including FSI.

nucl-ex↗

arXiv2016

Techniques And Results For The Calibration Of The MST Prototype For The Cherenkov Telescope Array

The next generation instrument for ground-based gamma-ray astronomy will be the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), consisting of approximately 100 telescopes in three sizes, built on two sites with one each in the Northern and Southern Hemi- spheres. Up to 40 of these will be Medium Size Telescopes (MSTs) which will dominate sensitivity in the core energy range. Since 2012, a full size mechanical prototype for the modified 12 m Davies-Cotton design MST has been in operation in Berlin. This doc- ument describes the techniques which have been implemented to calibrate and optimise the mechanical and optical performance of the prototype, and gives the results of over three years of observations and measurements. Pointing calibration techniques will be discussed, along with the development of a bending model, and calibration of the CCD cameras used for pointing measurements. Additionally alignment of mirror segments using the Bokeh method is shown.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2016

Open high-level data formats and software for gamma-ray astronomy

In gamma-ray astronomy, a variety of data formats and proprietary software have been traditionally used, often developed for one specific mission or experiment. Especially for ground-based imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes (IACTs), data and software are mostly private to the collaborations operating the telescopes. However, there is a general movement in science towards the use of open data and software. In addition, the next-generation IACT instrument, the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), will be operated as an open observatory. We have created a Github organisation at https://github.com/open-gamma-ray-astro where we are developing high-level data format specifications. A public mailing list was set up at https://lists.nasa.gov/mailman/listinfo/open-gamma-ray-astro and a first face-to-face meeting on the IACT high-level data model and formats took place in April 2016 in Meudon (France). This open multi-mission effort will help to accelerate the development of open data formats and open-source software for gamma-ray astronomy, leading to synergies in the development of analysis codes and eventually better scientific results (reproducible, multi-mission). This write-up presents this effort for the first time, explaining the motivation and context, the available resources and process we use, as well as the status and planned next steps for the data format specifications. We hope that it will stimulate feedback and future contributions from the gamma-ray astronomy community.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2015

Graph-theoretic autofill

Imagine a website that asks the user to fill in a web form and -- based on the input values -- derives a relevant figure, for instance an expected salary, a medical diagnosis or the market value of a house. How to deal with missing input values at run-time? Besides using fixed defaults, a more sophisticated approach is to use predefined dependencies (logical or correlational) between different fields to autofill missing values in an iterative way. Directed loopless graphs (in which cycles are allowed) are the ideal mathematical model to formalize these dependencies. We present two new graph-theoretic approaches to filling missing values at run-time.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2015

The 1st Fermi Lat Supernova Remnant Catalog

To uniformly determine the properties of supernova remnants (SNRs) at high energies, we have developed the first systematic survey at energies from 1 to 100 GeV using data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. Based on the spatial overlap of sources detected at GeV energies with SNRs known from radio surveys, we classify 30 sources as likely GeV SNRs. We also report 14 marginal associations and 245 flux upper limits. A mock catalog in which the positions of known remnants are scrambled in Galactic longitude, allows us to determine an upper limit of 22% on the number of GeV candidates falsely identified as SNRs. We have also developed a method to estimate spectral and spatial systematic errors arising from the diffuse interstellar emission model, a key component of all Galactic Fermi LAT analyses. By studying remnants uniformly in aggregate, we measure the GeV properties common to these objects and provide a crucial context for the detailed modeling of individual SNRs. Combining our GeV results with multiwavelength (MW) data, including radio, X-ray, and TeV, demonstrates the need for improvements to previously sufficient, simple models describing the GeV and radio emission from these objects. We model the GeV and MW emission from SNRs in aggregate to constrain their maximal contribution to observed Galactic cosmic rays.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2015

Real-time shape approximation and 5-D fingerprinting of single proteins

This work exploits the zeptoliter sensing volume of electrolyte-filled nanopores to determine, simultaneously and in real time, the approximate shape, volume, charge, rotational diffusion coefficient, and dipole moment of individual proteins. We have developed the theory for a quantitative understanding and analysis of modulations in ionic current that arise from rotational dynamics of single proteins as they move through the electric field inside a nanopore. The resulting multi-parametric information raises the possibility to characterize, identify, and quantify individual proteins and protein complexes in a mixture. This approach interrogates single proteins in solution and determines parameters such as the approximate shape and dipole moment, which are excellent protein descriptors and cannot be obtained otherwise from single protein molecules in solution. Taken together, this five-dimensional characterization of biomolecules at the single particle level has the potential for instantaneous protein identification, quantification, and possibly sorting with implications for structural biology, proteomics, biomarker detection, and routine protein analysis.

q-bio.BM↗

arXiv2015

Observer Access to the Cherenkov Telescope Array

The Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), a ground-based facility for very-high-energy (VHE) gamma-ray astronomy, will operate as an open observatory, serving a wide scientific community to explore and to study the non-thermal universe. Open community access is a novelty in this domain, putting a challenge on the implementation of services that make VHE gamma-ray astronomy as accessible as any other waveband. We present here the design of the CTA Observer Access system that comprises support of scientific users, dissemination of data and software, tools for scientific analysis, and the system to submit observing proposals. We outline the scientific user workflows and provide the status of the current developments.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2013

Towards a common analysis framework for gamma-ray astronomy

Thanks to the success of current gamma-ray telescopes (Fermi, H.E.S.S., MAGIC, VERITAS), and in view of the prospects of planned observatories such as the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) or the High-Altitude Water Cherenkov Observatory (HAWC), gamma-ray astronomy is becoming an integral part of modern astrophysical research. Analysis today relies on a large diversity of tools and software frameworks that were specifically and independently developed for each instrument. With the aim of unifying the analysis of gamma-ray data, we are currently developing GammaLib (http://sourceforge.net/projects/gammalib), a C++ library interfaced to Python that provides a framework for an instrument independent analysis of gamma-ray data. On top of GammaLib we have created ctools (http://cta.irap.omp.eu/ctools), a set of analysis executables that is being developed as one of the prototypes for the CTA high-level science analysis framework, but which is equally suited for the analysis of gamma-ray data from the existing Fermi-LAT telescope and current Cherenkov telescope arrays. In particular, ctools and GammaLib provide the novel opportunity of a simultaneous multi-instrument analysis. We present the status of the software development, and illustrate its capabilities with a spectral analysis of the Crab nebula emission over seven decades in energy (1 MeV to 10 TeV) using multi-instrument (COMPTEL, Fermi-LAT, H.E.S.S.) gamma-ray observations as well as a simulation of a CTA observation of the supernova remnant RX J1713.7-3946.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2012

An Expression for the Granular Elastic Energy

Granular Solid Hydrodynamics (GSH) is a broad-ranged continual mechanical description of granular media capable of accounting for static stress distributions, yield phenomena, propagation and damping of elastic waves, the critical state, shear band, and fast dense flow. An important input of GSH is an expression for the elastic energy needed to deform the grains. The original expression, though useful and simple, has some draw-backs. Therefore, a slightly more complicated expression is proposed here that eliminates three of them: (1) The maximal angle at which an inclined layer of grains remains stable is increased from $26^\circ$ to the more realistic value of $30^\circ$. (2)Depending on direction and polarization, transverse elastic waves are known to propagate at slightly different velocities. The old expression neglects these differences, the new one successfully reproduces them. (3) Most importantly, the old expression contains only the Drucker-Prager yield surface. The new one contains in addition those named after Coulomb, Lade-Duncan and Matsuoka-Nakai -- realizing each, and interpolating between them, by shifting a single scalar parameter.

cond-mat.soft↗

arXiv2012

Measurement of the generalized form factors near threshold via $γ^* p \to nπ^+$ at high $Q^2$

We report the first extraction of the pion-nucleon multipoles near the production threshold for the $nπ^+$ channel at relatively high momentum transfer ($Q^2$ up to 4.2 $\rm{GeV^2}$). The dominance of the s-wave transverse multipole ($E_{0+}$), expected in this region, allowed us to access the generalized form factor $G_1$ within the light-cone sum rule (LCSR) framework as well as the axial form factor $G_A$. The data analyzed in this work were collected by the nearly $4π$ CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS) using a 5.754 $\rm{GeV}$ electron beam on a proton target. The differential cross section and the $π-N$-multipole $E_{0+}/G_D$ were measured using two different methods, the LCSR and a direct multipole fit. The results from the two methods are found to be consistent and almost $Q^2$ independent.

nucl-ex↗