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Michael O. Eniolade

Publications and source records attributed to Michael O. Eniolade.

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Evaluating Frontier AI Agents as Autonomous Clinical Security Auditors

Clinical AI models can expose patients to harm when adversarial vulnerabilities go undetected, yet formal security auditing requires statistical expertise, specialized tools, and significant time. We present an open evaluation task, built on METR Task Standard v0.3.0, that tests whether frontier AI agents can autonomously implement a structured clinical AI security audit. Given a pre-trained clinical prediction model, a patient dataset, and written instructions, each agent must implement four attacks from pseudocode, compute a Security Posture Score covering FGSM robustness, membership inference resistance, expected calibration error, and boundary attack resistance, and write a structured JSON report in a Docker container using only a bash interface and no scaffolding code. Six variants span the Wisconsin Diagnostic Breast Cancer and MIMIC-IV ICU mortality datasets across three model architectures with increasing defense strength, with reference scores from 55.60 to 90.41. We ran 54 evaluations across three frontier models, with three runs per variant. Claude Sonnet 4.6 and GPT-4.1 completed all 18 runs and received perfect evaluator scores. GPT-4o completed 61 percent of runs and used about five times the per-run token count of Claude, although provider tokenization differs. Total API costs were 8 US dollars for GPT-4.1, 12 US dollars for Claude Sonnet 4.6, and 27 US dollars for GPT-4o. GPT-4o failures involved premature session termination, an aggregation error, and an empty submission file. The task, scoring infrastructure, and Wisconsin Breast Cancer assets are publicly released; MIMIC-IV variants require separate PhysioNet access.

cs.CR

Calibration, Uncertainty Communication, and Deployment Readiness in CKD Risk Prediction: A Framework Evaluation Study

Machine learning models for chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk prediction often post strong discrimination scores on internal test sets. Calibration and uncertainty quantification get far less attention, leaving clinicians without reliable information about whether the probability outputs are accurate. We trained five classifiers on the UCI CKD dataset (400 patients, 62.5% CKD prevalence): logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost, SVM with Platt scaling, and Gaussian naive Bayes. We evaluated each across calibration quality, conformal prediction coverage, and an eight-criterion deployment readiness framework. A distributional stress-test applied the best-calibrated variant of each model to the open-access MIMIC-IV demo cohort (97 patients, 23.7% CKD) to assess behaviour under prevalence shift and feature missingness. We measured calibration before and after Platt scaling and isotonic regression using Expected Calibration Error and Brier Score, and quantified uncertainty through split conformal prediction targeting 90% marginal coverage. All five models reached AUROC 1.00 on the UCI test set. Isotonic recalibration reduced internal ECE to 0.000-0.022. On MIMIC-IV, AUROC fell to 0.48-0.58, ECE rose to 0.68-0.76, and conformal coverage dropped from 0.80-0.98 to 0.21-0.25 against a 90% target. No model scored above 4 out of 16 on the deployment readiness checklist. Near-perfect internal performance did not transfer. Calibration stability and conformal coverage should be evaluated on external data before any clinical prediction model moves toward deployment.

cs.LG