arXiv subjects

Michael Potter

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Potter.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Hierarchical Temporal Point Process Modeling of Aggressive Behavior Onset in Psychiatric Inpatient Youth with Autism for Branching Factor Estimation

Aggressive behavior in autistic inpatient youth often arises in temporally clustered bursts complicating efforts to distinguish external triggers from internal escalation. The sample population branching factor-the expected number of new onsets triggered by a given event-is a key summary of self-excitation in behavior dynamics. Prior pooled models overestimate this quantity by ignoring patient-specific variability. We addressed this using a hierarchical Hawkes process with an exponential kernel and edge-effect correction allowing partial pooling across patients. This approach reduces bias from high-frequency individuals and stabilizes estimates for those with sparse data. Bayesian inference was performed using the No U-Turn Sampler with model evaluation via convergence diagnostics, power-scaling sensitivity analysis, and multiple Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) metrics: PSIS-LOO the Lewis test with Durbin's modification and residual analysis based on the Random Time Change Theorem (RTCT). The hierarchical model yielded a significantly lower and more precise branching factor estimate mean (0.742 +- 0.026) than the pooled model (0.899 +- 0.015) and narrower intervals than the unpooled model (0.717 +- 0.139). This led to a threefold smaller cascade of events per onset under the hierarchical model. Sensitivity analyses confirmed robustness to prior and likelihood perturbations while the unpooled model showed instability for sparse individuals. GOF measures consistently favored or on par to the hierarchical model. Hierarchical Hawkes modeling with edge-effect correction provides robust estimation of branching dynamics by capturing both within- and between-patient variability. This enables clearer separation of endogenous from exogenous events supports linkage to physiological signals and enhances early warning systems individualized treatment and resource allocation in inpatient care.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Recursive Deep Inverse Reinforcement Learning

Inferring an adversary's goals from exhibited behavior is crucial for counterplanning and non-cooperative multi-agent systems in domains like cybersecurity, military, and strategy games. Deep Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) methods based on maximum entropy principles show promise in recovering adversaries goals but are typically offline, require large batch sizes with gradient descent, and rely on first-order updates, limiting their applicability in real-time scenarios. We propose an online Recursive Deep Inverse Reinforcement Learning (RDIRL) approach to recover the cost function governing the adversary actions and goals. Specifically, we minimize an upper bound on the standard Guided Cost Learning (GCL) objective using sequential second-order Newton updates, akin to the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), leading to a fast (in terms of convergence) learning algorithm. We demonstrate that RDIRL is able to recover cost and reward functions of expert agents in standard and adversarial benchmark tasks. Experiments on benchmark tasks show that our proposed approach outperforms several leading IRL algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Active Learning For Repairable Hardware Systems With Partial Coverage

Identifying the optimal diagnostic test and hardware system instance to infer reliability characteristics using field data is challenging, especially when constrained by fixed budgets and minimal maintenance cycles. Active Learning (AL) has shown promise for parameter inference with limited data and budget constraints in machine learning/deep learning tasks. However, AL for reliability model parameter inference remains underexplored for repairable hardware systems. It requires specialized AL Acquisition Functions (AFs) that consider hardware aging and the fact that a hardware system consists of multiple sub-systems, which may undergo only partial testing during a given diagnostic test. To address these challenges, we propose a relaxed Mixed Integer Semidefinite Program (MISDP) AL AF that incorporates Diagnostic Coverage (DC), Fisher Information Matrices (FIMs), and diagnostic testing budgets. Furthermore, we design empirical-based simulation experiments focusing on two diagnostic testing scenarios: (1) partial tests of a hardware system with overlapping subsystem coverage, and (2) partial tests where one diagnostic test fully subsumes the subsystem coverage of another. We evaluate our proposed approach against the most widely used AL AF in the literature (entropy), as well as several intuitive AL AFs tailored for reliability model parameter inference. Our proposed AF ranked best on average among the alternative AFs across 6,000 experimental configurations, with respect to Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the Absolute Total Expected Event Error (ATEER) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) curves, with statistical significance calculated at a 0.05 alpha level using a Friedman hypothesis test.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Temporal Point Process Modeling of Aggressive Behavior Onset in Psychiatric Inpatient Youths with Autism

Aggressive behavior, including aggression towards others and self-injury, occurs in up to 80% of children and adolescents with autism, making it a leading cause of behavioral health referrals and a major driver of healthcare costs. Predicting when autistic youth will exhibit aggression can be challenging due to their communication difficulties. Many are minimally verbal or have poor emotional insight. Recent advances in Machine Learning and wearable biosensing demonstrate the ability to predict aggression within a limited future window (typically one to three minutes) in autistic individuals. However, existing works don't estimate aggression onset probability or the expected number of aggression onsets over longer periods, nor do they provide interpretable insights into onset dynamics. To address these limitations, we apply Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) - particularly self-exciting Hawkes processes - to model the timing of aggressive behavior onsets in psychiatric inpatient autistic youth. We benchmark several TPP models by evaluating their goodness-of-fit and predictive metrics. Our results demonstrate that self-exciting TPPs more accurately captures the irregular and clustered nature of aggression onsets, especially compared to traditional Poisson models. These incipient findings suggest that TPPs can provide interpretable, probabilistic forecasts of aggression onset along a time continuum, supporting future clinical decision-making and preemptive intervention.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Continuously Optimizing Radar Placement with Model Predictive Path Integrals

Continuously optimizing sensor placement is essential for precise target localization in various military and civilian applications. While information theory has shown promise in optimizing sensor placement, many studies oversimplify sensor measurement models or neglect dynamic constraints of mobile sensors. To address these challenges, we employ a range measurement model that incorporates radar parameters and radar-target distance, coupled with Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) control to manage complex environmental obstacles and dynamic constraints. We compare the proposed approach against stationary radars or simplified range measurement models based on the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the Cubature Kalman Filter (CKF) estimator for the targets' state. Additionally, we visualize the evolving geometry of radars and targets over time, highlighting areas of highest measurement information gain, demonstrating the strengths of the approach. The proposed strategy outperforms stationary radars and simplified range measurement models in target localization, achieving a 38-74% reduction in mean RMSE and a 33-79% reduction in the upper tail of the 90% Highest Density Interval (HDI) over 500 Monte Carl (MC) trials across all time steps. Code will be made publicly available upon acceptance.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Autonomous Robot for Disaster Mapping and Victim Localization

In response to the critical need for effective reconnaissance in disaster scenarios, this research article presents the design and implementation of a complete autonomous robot system using the Turtlebot3 with Robotic Operating System (ROS) Noetic. Upon deployment in closed, initially unknown environments, the system aims to generate a comprehensive map and identify any present 'victims' using AprilTags as stand-ins. We discuss our solution for search and rescue missions, while additionally exploring more advanced algorithms to improve search and rescue functionalities. We introduce a Cubature Kalman Filter to help reduce the mean squared error [m] for AprilTag localization and an information-theoretic exploration algorithm to expedite exploration in unknown environments. Just like turtles, our system takes it slow and steady, but when it's time to save the day, it moves at ninja-like speed! Despite Donatello's shell, he's no slowpoke - he zips through obstacles with the agility of a teenage mutant ninja turtle. So, hang on tight to your shells and get ready for a whirlwind of reconnaissance! Full pipeline code https://github.com/rzhao5659/MRProject/tree/main Exploration code https://github.com/rzhao5659/MRProject/tree/main

cs.RO↗

arXiv2024

Multistatic-Radar RCS-Signature Recognition of Aerial Vehicles: A Bayesian Fusion Approach

Radar Automated Target Recognition (RATR) for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) involves transmitting Electromagnetic Waves (EMWs) and performing target type recognition on the received radar echo, crucial for defense and aerospace applications. Previous studies highlighted the advantages of multistatic radar configurations over monostatic ones in RATR. However, fusion methods in multistatic radar configurations often suboptimally combine classification vectors from individual radars probabilistically. To address this, we propose a fully Bayesian RATR framework employing Optimal Bayesian Fusion (OBF) to aggregate classification probability vectors from multiple radars. OBF, based on expected 0-1 loss, updates a Recursive Bayesian Classification (RBC) posterior distribution for target UAV type, conditioned on historical observations across multiple time steps. We evaluate the approach using simulated random walk trajectories for seven drones, correlating target aspect angles to Radar Cross Section (RCS) measurements in an anechoic chamber. Comparing against single radar Automated Target Recognition (ATR) systems and suboptimal fusion methods, our empirical results demonstrate that the OBF method integrated with RBC significantly enhances classification accuracy compared to other fusion methods and single radar configurations.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2024

Distributed Genetic Algorithm for Feature Selection

We empirically show that process-based Parallelism speeds up the Genetic Algorithm (GA) for Feature Selection (FS) 2x to 25x, while additionally increasing the Machine Learning (ML) model performance on metrics such as F1-score, Accuracy, and Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC).

cs.DC↗

arXiv2023

Survival Analysis with Adversarial Regularization

Survival Analysis (SA) models the time until an event occurs, with applications in fields like medicine, defense, finance, and aerospace. Recent research indicates that Neural Networks (NNs) can effectively capture complex data patterns in SA, whereas simple generalized linear models often fall short in this regard. However, dataset uncertainties (e.g., noisy measurements, human error) can degrade NN model performance. To address this, we leverage advances in NN verification to develop training objectives for robust, fully-parametric SA models. Specifically, we propose an adversarially robust loss function based on a Min-Max optimization problem. We employ CROWN-Interval Bound Propagation (CROWN-IBP) to tackle the computational challenges inherent in solving this Min-Max problem. Evaluated over 10 SurvSet datasets, our method, Survival Analysis with Adversarial Regularization (SAWAR), consistently outperforms baseline adversarial training methods and state-of-the-art (SOTA) deep SA models across various covariate perturbations with respect to Negative Log Likelihood (NegLL), Integrated Brier Score (IBS), and Concordance Index (CI) metrics. Thus, we demonstrate that adversarial robustness enhances SA predictive performance and calibration, mitigating data uncertainty and improving generalization across diverse datasets by up to 150% compared to baselines.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Do Bayesian Neural Networks Improve Weapon System Predictive Maintenance?

We implement a Bayesian inference process for Neural Networks to model the time to failure of highly reliable weapon systems with interval-censored data and time-varying covariates. We analyze and benchmark our approach, LaplaceNN, on synthetic and real datasets with standard classification metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Area Under Curve (AUC) Precision-Recall (PR) AUC, and reliability curve visualizations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Bayesian Weapon System Reliability Modeling with Cox-Weibull Neural Network

We propose to integrate weapon system features (such as weapon system manufacturer, deployment time and location, storage time and location, etc.) into a parameterized Cox-Weibull [1] reliability model via a neural network, like DeepSurv [2], to improve predictive maintenance. In parallel, we develop an alternative Bayesian model by parameterizing the Weibull parameters with a neural network and employing dropout methods such as Monte-Carlo (MC)-dropout for comparative purposes. Due to data collection procedures in weapon system testing we employ a novel interval-censored log-likelihood which incorporates Monte-Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) [3] sampling of the Weibull parameters during gradient descent optimization. We compare classification metrics such as receiver operator curve (ROC) area under the curve (AUC), precision-recall (PR) AUC, and F scores to show our model generally outperforms traditional powerful models such as XGBoost and the current standard conditional Weibull probability density estimation model.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Adversarial Focal Loss: Asking Your Discriminator for Hard Examples

Focal Loss has reached incredible popularity as it uses a simple technique to identify and utilize hard examples to achieve better performance on classification. However, this method does not easily generalize outside of classification tasks, such as in keypoint detection. In this paper, we propose a novel adaptation of Focal Loss for keypoint detection tasks, called Adversarial Focal Loss (AFL). AFL not only is semantically analogous to Focal loss, but also works as a plug-and-chug upgrade for arbitrary loss functions. While Focal Loss requires output from a classifier, AFL leverages a separate adversarial network to produce a difficulty score for each input. This difficulty score can then be used to dynamically prioritize learning on hard examples, even in absence of a classifier. In this work, we show AFL's effectiveness in enhancing existing methods in keypoint detection and verify its capability to re-weigh examples based on difficulty.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

Optimizing Data Augmentation Policy Through Random Unidimensional Search

It is no secret amongst deep learning researchers that finding the optimal data augmentation strategy during training can mean the difference between state-of-the-art performance and a run-of-the-mill result. To that end, the community has seen many efforts to automate the process of finding the perfect augmentation procedure for any task at hand. Unfortunately, even recent cutting-edge methods bring massive computational overhead, requiring as many as 100 full model trainings to settle on an ideal configuration. We show how to achieve equivalent performance using just 6 trainings with Random Unidimensional Augmentation. Source code is available at https://github.com/fastestimator/RUA/tree/v1.0

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

To Raise or Not To Raise: The Autonomous Learning Rate Question

There is a parameter ubiquitous throughout the deep learning world: learning rate. There is likewise a ubiquitous question: what should that learning rate be? The true answer to this question is often tedious and time consuming to obtain, and a great deal of arcane knowledge has accumulated in recent years over how to pick and modify learning rates to achieve optimal training performance. Moreover, the long hours spent carefully crafting the perfect learning rate can come to nothing the moment your network architecture, optimizer, dataset, or initial conditions change ever so slightly. But it need not be this way. We propose a new answer to the great learning rate question: the Autonomous Learning Rate Controller. Find it at https://github.com/fastestimator/ARC/tree/v2.0

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Low-light Environment Neural Surveillance

We design and implement an end-to-end system for real-time crime detection in low-light environments. Unlike Closed-Circuit Television, which performs reactively, the Low-Light Environment Neural Surveillance provides real time crime alerts. The system uses a low-light video feed processed in real-time by an optical-flow network, spatial and temporal networks, and a Support Vector Machine to identify shootings, assaults, and thefts. We create a low-light action-recognition dataset, LENS-4, which will be publicly available. An IoT infrastructure set up via Amazon Web Services interprets messages from the local board hosting the camera for action recognition and parses the results in the cloud to relay messages. The system achieves 71.5% accuracy at 20 FPS. The user interface is a mobile app which allows local authorities to receive notifications and to view a video of the crime scene. Citizens have a public app which enables law enforcement to push crime alerts based on user proximity.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2019

Impact of Inference Accelerators on hardware selection

As opportunities for AI-assisted healthcare grow steadily, model deployment faces challenges due to the specific characteristics of the industry. The configuration choice for a production device can impact model performance while influencing operational costs. Moreover, in healthcare some situations might require fast, but not real time, inference. We study different configurations and conduct a cost-performance analysis to determine the optimized hardware for the deployment of a model subject to healthcare domain constraints. We observe that a naive performance comparison may not lead to an optimal configuration selection. In fact, given realistic domain constraints, CPU execution might be preferable to GPU accelerators. Hence, defining beforehand precise expectations for model deployment is crucial.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2019

FastEstimator: A Deep Learning Library for Fast Prototyping and Productization

As the complexity of state-of-the-art deep learning models increases by the month, implementation, interpretation, and traceability become ever-more-burdensome challenges for AI practitioners around the world. Several AI frameworks have risen in an effort to stem this tide, but the steady advance of the field has begun to test the bounds of their flexibility, expressiveness, and ease of use. To address these concerns, we introduce a radically flexible high-level open source deep learning framework for both research and industry. We introduce FastEstimator.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2019

AI Assisted Annotator using Reinforcement Learning

Healthcare data suffers from both noise and lack of ground truth. The cost of data increases as it is cleaned and annotated in healthcare. Unlike other data sets, medical data annotation, which is critical to accurate ground truth, requires medical domain expertise for a better patient outcome. In this work, we report on the use of reinforcement learning to mimic the decision making process of annotators for medical events, to automate annotation and labelling. The reinforcement agent learns to annotate alarm data based on annotations done by an expert. Our method shows promising results on medical alarm data sets. We trained DQN and A2C agents using the data from monitoring devices annotated by an expert. Initial results from these RL agents learning the expert annotation behavior are promising. The A2C agent performs better in terms of learning the sparse events in a given state, thereby choosing more right actions compared to DQN agent. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first reinforcement learning application for the automation of medical events annotation, which has far-reaching practical use.

eess.SP↗