Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Michael Roberts

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Roberts.

32 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Dis-AE: Multi-domain & Multi-task Generalisation on Real-World Clinical Data

Clinical data is often affected by clinically irrelevant factors such as discrepancies between measurement devices or differing processing methods between sites. In the field of machine learning (ML), these factors are known as domains and the distribution differences they cause in the data are known as domain shifts. ML models trained using data from one domain often perform poorly when applied to data from another domain, potentially leading to wrong predictions. As such, developing machine learning models that can generalise well across multiple domains is a challenging yet essential task in the successful application of ML in clinical practice. In this paper, we propose a novel disentangled autoencoder (Dis-AE) neural network architecture that can learn domain-invariant data representations for multi-label classification of medical measurements even when the data is influenced by multiple interacting domain shifts at once. The model utilises adversarial training to produce data representations from which the domain can no longer be determined. We evaluate the model's domain generalisation capabilities on synthetic datasets and full blood count (FBC) data from blood donors as well as primary and secondary care patients, showing that Dis-AE improves model generalisation on multiple domains simultaneously while preserving clinically relevant information.

cs.LG↗

Estimating defection in subscription-type markets: empirical analysis from the scholarly publishing industry

We present the first empirical study on customer churn prediction in the scholarly publishing industry. The study examines our proposed method for prediction on a customer subscription data over a period of 6.5 years, which was provided by a major academic publisher. We explore the subscription-type market within the context of customer defection and modelling, and provide analysis of the business model of such markets, and how these characterise the academic publishing business. The proposed method for prediction attempts to provide inference of customer's likelihood of defection on the basis of their re-sampled use of provider resources -in this context, the volume and frequency of content downloads. We show that this approach can be both accurate as well as uniquely useful in the business-to-business context, with which the scholarly publishing business model shares similarities. The main findings of this work suggest that whilst all predictive models examined, especially ensemble methods of machine learning, achieve substantially accurate prediction of churn, nearly a year ahead, this can be furthermore achieved even when the specific behavioural attributes that can be associated to each customer probability to churn are overlooked. Allowing as such highly accurate inference of churn from minimal possible data. We show that modelling churn on the basis of re-sampling customers' use of resources over subscription time is a better (simplified) approach than when considering the high granularity that can often characterise consumption behaviour.

cs.LG↗

Navigating the challenges in creating complex data systems: a development philosophy

In this perspective, we argue that despite the democratization of powerful tools for data science and machine learning over the last decade, developing the code for a trustworthy and effective data science system (DSS) is getting harder. Perverse incentives and a lack of widespread software engineering (SE) skills are among many root causes we identify that naturally give rise to the current systemic crisis in reproducibility of DSSs. We analyze why SE and building large complex systems is, in general, hard. Based on these insights, we identify how SE addresses those difficulties and how we can apply and generalize SE methods to construct DSSs that are fit for purpose. We advocate two key development philosophies, namely that one should incrementally grow -- not biphasically plan and build -- DSSs, and one should always employ two types of feedback loops during development: one which tests the code's correctness and another that evaluates the code's efficacy.

cs.SE↗

Classification of datasets with imputed missing values: does imputation quality matter?

Classifying samples in incomplete datasets is a common aim for machine learning practitioners, but is non-trivial. Missing data is found in most real-world datasets and these missing values are typically imputed using established methods, followed by classification of the now complete, imputed, samples. The focus of the machine learning researcher is then to optimise the downstream classification performance. In this study, we highlight that it is imperative to consider the quality of the imputation. We demonstrate how the commonly used measures for assessing quality are flawed and propose a new class of discrepancy scores which focus on how well the method recreates the overall distribution of the data. To conclude, we highlight the compromised interpretability of classifier models trained using poorly imputed data.

cs.LG↗

Data Harmonisation for Information Fusion in Digital Healthcare: A State-of-the-Art Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis and Future Research Directions

Removing the bias and variance of multicentre data has always been a challenge in large scale digital healthcare studies, which requires the ability to integrate clinical features extracted from data acquired by different scanners and protocols to improve stability and robustness. Previous studies have described various computational approaches to fuse single modality multicentre datasets. However, these surveys rarely focused on evaluation metrics and lacked a checklist for computational data harmonisation studies. In this systematic review, we summarise the computational data harmonisation approaches for multi-modality data in the digital healthcare field, including harmonisation strategies and evaluation metrics based on different theories. In addition, a comprehensive checklist that summarises common practices for data harmonisation studies is proposed to guide researchers to report their research findings more effectively. Last but not least, flowcharts presenting possible ways for methodology and metric selection are proposed and the limitations of different methods have been surveyed for future research.

cs.AI↗

Advancing COVID-19 Diagnosis with Privacy-Preserving Collaboration in Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) provides a promising substitution for streamlining COVID-19 diagnoses. However, concerns surrounding security and trustworthiness impede the collection of large-scale representative medical data, posing a considerable challenge for training a well-generalised model in clinical practices. To address this, we launch the Unified CT-COVID AI Diagnostic Initiative (UCADI), where the AI model can be distributedly trained and independently executed at each host institution under a federated learning framework (FL) without data sharing. Here we show that our FL model outperformed all the local models by a large yield (test sensitivity /specificity in China: 0.973/0.951, in the UK: 0.730/0.942), achieving comparable performance with a panel of professional radiologists. We further evaluated the model on the hold-out (collected from another two hospitals leaving out the FL) and heterogeneous (acquired with contrast materials) data, provided visual explanations for decisions made by the model, and analysed the trade-offs between the model performance and the communication costs in the federated training process. Our study is based on 9,573 chest computed tomography scans (CTs) from 3,336 patients collected from 23 hospitals located in China and the UK. Collectively, our work advanced the prospects of utilising federated learning for privacy-preserving AI in digital health.

cs.AI↗

Universal Semantics for the Stochastic Lambda-Calculus

We define sound and adequate denotational and operational semantics for the stochastic lambda calculus. These two semantic approaches build on previous work that used similar techniques to reason about higher-order probabilistic programs, but for the first time admit an adequacy theorem relating the operational and denotational views. This resolves the main issue left open in (Bacci et al. 2018).

cs.LO↗

Semantics and Axiomatization for Stochastic Differential Dynamic Logic

Building on previous work by André Platzer, we present a formal language for Stochastic Differential Dynamic Logic, and define its semantics, axioms and inference rules. Compared to the previous effort, our account of the Stochastic Differential Dynamic Logic follows closer to and is more compatible with the traditional account of the regular Differential Dynamic Logic. We resolve an issue with the well-definedness of the original work's semantics, while showing how to make the logic more expressive by incorporating nondeterministic choice, definite descriptions and differential terms. Definite descriptions necessitate using a three-valued truth semantics. We also give the first Uniform Substitution calculus for Stochastic Differential Dynamic Logic, making it more practical to implement in proof assistants.

cs.LO↗

Common pitfalls and recommendations for using machine learning to detect and prognosticate for COVID-19 using chest radiographs and CT scans

Machine learning methods offer great promise for fast and accurate detection and prognostication of COVID-19 from standard-of-care chest radiographs (CXR) and computed tomography (CT) images. Many articles have been published in 2020 describing new machine learning-based models for both of these tasks, but it is unclear which are of potential clinical utility. In this systematic review, we search EMBASE via OVID, MEDLINE via PubMed, bioRxiv, medRxiv and arXiv for published papers and preprints uploaded from January 1, 2020 to October 3, 2020 which describe new machine learning models for the diagnosis or prognosis of COVID-19 from CXR or CT images. Our search identified 2,212 studies, of which 415 were included after initial screening and, after quality screening, 61 studies were included in this systematic review. Our review finds that none of the models identified are of potential clinical use due to methodological flaws and/or underlying biases. This is a major weakness, given the urgency with which validated COVID-19 models are needed. To address this, we give many recommendations which, if followed, will solve these issues and lead to higher quality model development and well documented manuscripts.

cs.LG↗

Sequential hypothesis testing in machine learning, and crude oil price jump size detection

In this paper we present a sequential hypothesis test for the detection of general jump size distrubution. Infinitesimal generators for the corresponding log-likelihood ratios are presented and analyzed. Bounds for infinitesimal generators in terms of super-solutions and sub-solutions are computed. This is shown to be implementable in relation to various classification problems for a crude oil price data set. Machine and deep learning algorithms are implemented to extract a specific deterministic component from the crude oil data set, and the deterministic component is implemented to improve the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model, a commonly used stochastic model for derivative and commodity market analysis.

stat.ME↗

Infinitesimal generators for two-dimensional Lévy process-driven hypothesis testing

In this paper, we present the testing of four hypotheses on two streams of observations that are driven by Lévy processes. This is applicable for sequential decision making on the state of two-sensor systems. In one case, each sensor receives or does not receive a signal obstructed by noise. In another, each sensor receives data-driven by Lévy processes with large or small jumps. In either case, these give rise to four possibilities. Infinitesimal generators are presented and analyzed. Bounds for infinitesimal generators in terms of \emph{super-solutions} and \emph{sub-solutions} are computed. An application of this procedure for the stochastic model is also presented in relation to the financial market.

math.ST↗

Chan-Vese Reformulation for Selective Image Segmentation

Selective segmentation involves incorporating user input to partition an image into foreground and background, by discriminating between objects of a similar type. Typically, such methods involve introducing additional constraints to generic segmentation approaches. However, we show that this is often inconsistent with respect to common assumptions about the image. The proposed method introduces a new fitting term that is more useful in practice than the Chan-Vese framework. In particular, the idea is to define a term that allows for the background to consist of multiple regions of inhomogeneity. We provide comparitive experimental results to alternative approaches to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method, broadening the possible application of these methods.

cs.CV↗

A Convex Geodesic Selective Model for Image Segmentation

Selective segmentation is an important application of image processing. In contrast to global segmentation in which all objects are segmented, selective segmentation is used to isolate specific objects in an image and is of particular interest in medical imaging -- permitting segmentation and review of a single organ. An important consideration is to minimise the amount of user input to obtain the segmentation; this differs from interactive segmentation in which more user input is allowed than selective segmentation. To achieve selection, we propose a selective segmentation model which uses the edge-weighted geodesic distance from a marker set as a penalty term. It is demonstrated that this edge-weighted geodesic penalty term improves on previous selective penalty terms. A convex formulation of the model is also presented, allowing arbitrary initialisation. It is shown that the proposed model is less parameter dependent and requires less user input than previous models. Further modifications are made to the edge-weighted geodesic distance term to ensure segmentation robustness to noise and blur. We can show that the overall Euler-Lagrange equation admits a unique viscosity solution. Numerical results show that the result is robust to user input and permits selective segmentations that are not possible with other models.

math.NA↗

Multigrid Algorithm Based on Hybrid Smoothers for Variational and Selective Segmentation Models

Automatic segmentation of an image to identify all meaningful parts is one of the most challenging as well as useful tasks in a number of application areas. This is widely studied. Selective segmentation, less studied, aims to use limited user specified information to extract one or more interesting objects (instead of all objects). Constructing a fast solver remains a challenge for both classes of model. However our primary concern is on selective segmentation. In this work, we develop an effective multigrid algorithm, based on a new non-standard smoother to deal with non-smooth coefficients, to solve the underlying partial differential equations (PDEs) of a class of variational segmentation models in the level set formulation. For such models, non-smoothness (or jumps) is typical as segmentation is only possible if edges (jumps) are present. In comparison with previous multigrid methods which were shown to produce an acceptable {\it mean} smoothing rate for related models, the new algorithm can ensure a small and {\it global} smoothing rate that is a sufficient condition for convergence. Our rate analysis is by Local Fourier Analysis and, with it, we design the corresponding iterative solver, improving on an ineffective line smoother. Numerical tests show that the new algorithm outperforms multigrid methods based on competing smoothers.

math.NA↗