arXiv subjects

Michael W. Coughlin

Publications and source records attributed to Michael W. Coughlin.

At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Inferring kilonova population properties with a hierarchical Bayesian framework I : Non-detection methodology and single-event analyses

We present ${\tt nimbus}$ : a hierarchical Bayesian framework to infer the intrinsic luminosity parameters of kilonovae (KNe) associated with gravitational-wave (GW) events, based purely on non-detections. This framework makes use of GW 3-D distance information and electromagnetic upper limits from multiple surveys for multiple events, and self-consistently accounts for finite sky-coverage and probability of astrophysical origin. The framework is agnostic to the brightness evolution assumed and can account for multiple electromagnetic passbands simultaneously. Our analyses highlight the importance of accounting for model selection effects, especially in the context of non-detections. We show our methodology using a simple, two-parameter linear brightness model, taking the follow-up of GW190425 with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) as a single-event test case for two different prior choices of model parameters -- (i) uniform/uninformative priors and (ii) astrophysical priors based on surrogate models of Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations of KNe. We present results under the assumption that the KN is within the searched region to demonstrate functionality and the importance of prior choice. Our results show consistency with ${\tt simsurvey}$ -- an astronomical survey simulation tool used previously in the literature to constrain the population of KNe. While our results based on uniform priors strongly constrain the parameter space, those based on astrophysical priors are largely uninformative, highlighting the need for deeper constraints. Future studies with multiple events having electromagnetic follow-up from multiple surveys should make it possible to constrain the KN population further.

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arXiv2021

Nuclear-Physics Multi-Messenger Astrophysics Constraints on the Neutron-Star Equation of State: Adding NICER's PSR J0740+6620 Measurement

In the past few years, new observations of neutron stars and neutron-star mergers have provided a wealth of data that allow one to constrain the equation of state of nuclear matter at densities above nuclear saturation density. However, most observations were based on neutron stars with masses of about 1.4 solar masses, probing densities up to $\sim$ 3-4 times the nuclear saturation density. Even higher densities are probed inside massive neutron stars such as PSR J0740+6620. Very recently, new radio observations provided an update to the mass estimate for PSR J0740+6620 and X-ray observations by the NICER and XMM telescopes constrained its radius. Based on these new measurements, we revisit our previous nuclear-physics multi-messenger astrophysics constraints and derive updated constraints on the equation of state describing the neutron-star interior. By combining astrophysical observations of two radio pulsars, two NICER measurements, the two gravitational-wave detections GW170817 and GW190425, detailed modeling of the kilonova AT2017gfo, as well as the gamma-ray burst GRB170817A, we are able to estimate the radius of a typical 1.4-solar mass neutron star to be $11.94^{+0.76}_{-0.87} \rm{km}$ at $90\%$ confidence. Our analysis allows us to revisit the upper bound on the maximum mass of neutron stars and disfavors the presence of a strong first-order phase transition from nuclear matter to exotic forms of matter, such as quark matter, inside neutron stars.

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arXiv2021

Give Me a Few Hours: Exploring Short Timescales in Rubin Observatory Cadence Simulations

The limiting temporal resolution of a time-domain survey in detecting transient behavior is set by the time between observations of the same sky area. We analyze the distribution of visit separations for a range of Vera C. Rubin Observatory cadence simulations. Current simulations are strongly peaked at the 22 minute visit pair separation and provide effectively no constraint on temporal evolution within the night. This choice will necessarily prevent Rubin from discovering a wide range of astrophysical phenomena in time to trigger rapid followup. We present a science-agnostic metric to supplement detailed simulations of fast-evolving transients and variables and suggest potential approaches for improving the range of timescales explored.

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arXiv2021

A tidal disruption event coincident with a high-energy neutrino

Cosmic neutrinos provide a unique window into the otherwise-hidden mechanism of particle acceleration in astrophysical objects. A flux of high-energy neutrinos was discovered in 2013, and the IceCube Collaboration recently reported the likely association of one high-energy neutrino with a flare from the relativistic jet of an active galaxy pointed towards the Earth. However a combined analysis of many similar active galaxies revealed no excess from the broader population, leaving the vast majority of the cosmic neutrino flux unexplained. Here we present the likely association of a radio-emitting tidal disruption event, AT2019dsg, with a second high-energy neutrino. AT2019dsg was identified as part of our systematic search for optical counterparts to high-energy neutrinos with the Zwicky Transient Facility. The probability of finding any coincident radio-emitting tidal disruption event by chance is 0.5%, while the probability of finding one as bright in bolometric energy flux as AT2019dsg is 0.2%. Our electromagnetic observations can be explained through a multi-zone model, with radio analysis revealing a central engine, embedded in a UV photosphere, that powers an extended synchrotron-emitting outflow. This provides an ideal site for PeV neutrino production. Assuming that the association is genuine, our observations suggest that tidal disruption events with mildly-relativistic outflows contribute to the cosmic neutrino flux.

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arXiv2021

Predicting electromagnetic counterparts using low-latency, gravitational-wave data products

Searches for gravitational-wave counterparts have been going in earnest since GW170817 and the discovery of AT2017gfo. Since then, the lack of detection of other optical counterparts connected to binary neutron star or black hole - neutron star candidates has highlighted the need for a better discrimination criterion to support this effort. At the moment, the low-latency gravitational-wave alerts contain preliminary information about the binary properties and, hence, on whether a detected binary might have an electromagnetic counterpart. The current alert method is a classifier that estimates the probability that there is a debris disc outside the black hole created during the merger as well as the probability of a signal being a binary neutron star, a black hole - neutron star, a binary black hole or of terrestrial origin. In this work, we expand upon this approach to predict both the ejecta properties and provide contours of potential lightcurves for these events in order to improve follow-up observation strategy. The various sources of uncertainty are discussed, and we conclude that our ignorance about the ejecta composition and the insufficient constraint of the binary parameters, by the low-latency pipelines, represent the main limitations. To validate the method, we test our approach on real events from the second and third Advanced LIGO-Virgo observing runs.

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arXiv2021

Optimizing Cadences with Realistic Light Curve Filtering for Serendipitous Kilonova Discovery with Vera Rubin Observatory

Current and future optical and near-infrared wide-field surveys have the potential of finding kilonovae, the optical and infrared counterparts to neutron star mergers, independently of gravitational-wave or high-energy gamma-ray burst triggers. The ability to discover fast and faint transients such as kilonovae largely depends on the area observed, the depth of those observations, the number of re-visits per field in a given time frame, and the filters adopted by the survey; it also depends on the ability to perform rapid follow-up observations to confirm the nature of the transients. In this work, we assess kilonova detectability in existing simulations of the LSST strategy for the Vera C. Rubin Wide Fast Deep survey, with focus on comparing rolling to baseline cadences. Although currently available cadences can enable the detection of more than 300 kilonovae out to 1400 Mpc over the ten-year survey, we can expect only 3-32 kilonovae similar to GW170817 to be recognizable as fast-evolving transients. We also explore the detectability of kilonovae over the plausible parameter space, focusing on viewing angle and ejecta masses. We find that observations in redder izy bands are crucial for identification of nearby (within 300 Mpc) kilonovae that could be spectroscopically classified more easily than more distant sources. Rubin's potential for serendipitous kilonova discovery could be increased by gain of efficiency with the employment of individual 30s exposures (as opposed to 2x15s snap pairs), with the addition of red-band observations coupled with same-night observations in g- or r-bands, and possibly with further development of a new rolling-cadence strategy.

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arXiv2021

Discovery and confirmation of the shortest gamma ray burst from a collapsar

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are among the brightest and most energetic events in the universe. The duration and hardness distribution of GRBs has two clusters, now understood to reflect (at least) two different progenitors. Short-hard GRBs (SGRBs; T90 <2 s) arise from compact binary mergers, while long-soft GRBs (LGRBs; T90 >2 s) have been attributed to the collapse of peculiar massive stars (collapsars). The discovery of SN 1998bw/GRB 980425 marked the first association of a LGRB with a collapsar and AT 2017gfo/GRB 170817A/GW170817 marked the first association of a SGRB with a binary neutron star merger, producing also gravitational wave (GW). Here, we present the discovery of ZTF20abwysqy (AT2020scz), a fast-fading optical transient in the Fermi Satellite and the InterPlanetary Network (IPN) localization regions of GRB 200826A; X-ray and radio emission further confirm that this is the afterglow. Follow-up imaging (at rest-frame 16.5 days) reveals excess emission above the afterglow that cannot be explained as an underlying kilonova (KN), but is consistent with being the supernova (SN). Despite the GRB duration being short (rest-frame T90 of 0.65 s), our panchromatic follow-up data confirms a collapsar origin. GRB 200826A is the shortest LGRB found with an associated collapsar; it appears to sit on the brink between a successful and a failed collapsar. Our discovery is consistent with the hypothesis that most collapsars fail to produce ultra-relativistic jets.

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arXiv2021

Six Outbursts of Comet 46P/Wirtanen

Cometary activity is a manifestation of sublimation-driven processes at the surface of nuclei. However, cometary outbursts may arise from other processes that are not necessarily driven by volatiles. In order to fully understand nuclear surfaces and their evolution, we must identify the causes of cometary outbursts. In that context, we present a study of mini-outbursts of comet 46P/Wirtanen. Six events are found in our long-term lightcurve of the comet around its perihelion passage in 2018. The apparent strengths range from $-0.2$ to $-1.6$ mag in a 5" radius aperture, and correspond to dust masses between $\sim10^4$ to $10^6$ kg, but with large uncertainties due to the unknown grain size distributions. However, the nominal mass estimates are the same order of magnitude as the mini-outbursts at comet 9P/Tempel 1 and 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, events which were notably lacking at comet 103P/Hartley 2. We compare the frequency of outbursts at the four comets, and suggest that the surface of 46P has large-scale ($\sim$10-100 m) roughness that is intermediate to that of 67P and 103P, if not similar to the latter. The strength of the outbursts appear to be correlated with time since the last event, but a physical interpretation with respect to solar insolation is lacking. We also examine Hubble Space Telescope images taken about 2 days following a near-perihelion outburst. No evidence for macroscopic ejecta was found in the image, with a limiting radius of about 2-m.

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arXiv2021

Year 1 of the ZTF high-cadence Galactic Plane Survey: Strategy, goals, and early results on new single-mode hot subdwarf B-star pulsators

We present the goals, strategy and first results of the high-cadence Galactic plane survey using the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). The goal of the survey is to unveil the Galactic population of short-period variable stars, including short period binaries and stellar pulsators with periods less than a few hours. Between June 2018 and January 2019, we observed 64 ZTF fields resulting in 2990 deg$^2$ of high stellar density in ZTF-$r$ band along the Galactic Plane. Each field was observed continuously for 1.5 to 6 hrs with a cadence of 40 sec. Most fields have between 200 and 400 observations obtained over 2-3 continuous nights. As part of this survey we extract a total of $\approx$230 million individual objects with at least 80 epochs obtained during the high-cadence Galactic Plane survey reaching an average depth of ZTF-$r$ $\approx$20.5 mag. For four selected fields with 2 million to 10 million individual objects per field we calculate different variability statistics and find that $\approx$1-2% of the objects are astrophysically variable over the observed period. We present a progress report on recent discoveries, including a new class of compact pulsators, the first members of a new class of Roche Lobe filling hot subdwarf binaries as well as new ultracompact double white dwarfs and flaring stars. Finally we present a sample of 12 new single-mode hot subdwarf B-star pulsators with pulsation amplitudes between ZTF-$r$ = 20-76 mmag and pulsation periods between $P$ = 5.8-16 min with a strong cluster of systems with periods $\approx$ 6 min. All of the data have now been released in either ZTF Data Release 3 or data release 4.

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arXiv2021

Optimizing Serendipitous Detections of Kilonovae: Cadence and Filter Selection

The rise of multi-messenger astronomy has brought with it the need to exploit all available data streams and learn more about the astrophysical objects that fall within its breadth. One possible avenue is the search for serendipitous optical/near-infrared counterparts of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and gravitational-wave (GW) signals, known as kilonovae. With surveys such as the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), which observes the sky with a cadence of ~ three days, the existing counterpart locations are likely to be observed; however, due to the significant amount of sky to explore, it is difficult to search for these fast-evolving candidates. Thus, it is beneficial to optimize the survey cadence for realtime kilonova identification and enable further photometric and spectroscopic observations. We explore how the cadence of wide field-of-view surveys like ZTF can be improved to facilitate such identifications. We show that with improved observational choices, e.g., the adoption of three epochs per night on a ~ nightly basis, and the prioritization of redder photometric bands, detection efficiencies improve by about a factor of two relative to the nominal cadence. We also provide realistic hypothetical constraints on the kilonova rate as a form of comparison between strategies, assuming that no kilonovae are detected throughout the long-term execution of the respective observing plan. These results demonstrate how an optimal use of ZTF increases the likelihood of kilonova discovery independent of GWs or GRBs, thereby allowing for a sensitive search with less interruption of its nominal cadence through Target of Opportunity programs.

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arXiv2021

Fast-transient Searches in Real Time with ZTFReST: Identification of Three Optically-discovered Gamma-ray Burst Afterglows and New Constraints on the Kilonova Rate

While optical surveys regularly discover slow transients like supernovae on their own, the most common way to discover extragalactic fast transients, fading away in a few nights, is via follow-up observations of gamma-ray burst and gravitational-wave triggers. However, wide-field surveys have the potential to also identify rapidly fading transients independently of such external triggers. The volumetric survey speed of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) makes it sensitive to faint and fast-fading objects as kilonovae, the optical counterparts to binary neutron stars and neutron star-black hole mergers, out to almost 200Mpc. We introduce an open-source software infrastructure, the ZTF REaltime Search and Triggering, ZTFReST, designed to identify kilonovae and fast optical transients in ZTF data. Using the ZTF alert stream combined with forced photometry, we have implemented automated candidate ranking based on their photometric evolution and fitting to kilonova models. Automated triggering of follow-up systems, such as Las Cumbres Observatory, has also been implemented. In 13 months of science validation, we found several extragalactic fast transients independent of any external trigger (though some counterparts were identified later), including at least one supernova with post-shock cooling emission, two known afterglows with an associated gamma-ray burst, two known afterglows without any known gamma-ray counterpart, and three new fast-declining sources (ZTF20abtxwfx, ZTF20acozryr, and ZTF21aagwbjr) that are likely associated with GRB200817A, GRB201103B, and GRB210204A. However, we have not found any objects which appear to be kilonovae; therefore, we constrain the rate of GW170817-like kilonovae to $R < 900$Gpc$^{-3}$yr$^{-1}$. A framework such as ZTFReST could become a prime tool for kilonova and fast transient discovery with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.

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arXiv2021

Tails: Chasing Comets with the Zwicky Transient Facility and Deep Learning

We present Tails, an open-source deep-learning framework for the identification and localization of comets in the image data of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), a robotic optical time-domain survey currently in operation at the Palomar Observatory in California, USA. Tails employs a custom EfficientDet-based architecture and is capable of finding comets in single images in near real time, rather than requiring multiple epochs as with traditional methods. The system achieves state-of-the-art performance with 99% recall, 0.01% false positive rate, and 1-2 pixel root mean square error in the predicted position. We report the initial results of the Tails efficiency evaluation in a production setting on the data of the ZTF Twilight survey, including the first AI-assisted discovery of a comet (C/2020 T2) and the recovery of a comet (P/2016 J3 = P/2021 A3).

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arXiv2021

The Challenges Ahead for Multimessenger Analyses of Gravitational Waves and Kilonova: a Case Study on GW190425

In recent years, there have been significant advances in multi-messenger astronomy due to the discovery of the first, and so far only confirmed, gravitational wave event with a simultaneous electromagnetic (EM) counterpart, as well as improvements in numerical simulations, gravitational wave (GW) detectors, and transient astronomy. This has led to the exciting possibility of performing joint analyses of the GW and EM data, providing additional constraints on fundamental properties of the binary progenitor and merger remnant. Here, we present a new Bayesian framework that allows inference of these properties, while taking into account the systematic modeling uncertainties that arise when mapping from GW binary progenitor properties to photometric light curves. We extend the relative binning method presented in Zackay et al. (2018) to include extrinsic GW parameters for fast analysis of the GW signal. The focus of our EM framework is on light curves arising from r-process nucleosynthesis in the ejected material during and after merger, the so called kilonova, and particularly on black hole - neutron star systems. As a case study, we examine the recent detection of GW190425, where the primary object is consistent with being either a black hole (BH) or a neutron star (NS). We show quantitatively how improved mapping between binary progenitor and outflow properties, and/or an increase in EM data quantity and quality are required in order to break degeneracies in the fundamental source parameters.

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arXiv2021

The ZTF Source Classification Project: I. Methods and Infrastructure

The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) has been observing the entire northern sky since the start of 2018 down to a magnitude of 20.5 ($5 σ$ for 30s exposure) in $g$, $r$, and $i$ filters. Over the course of two years, ZTF has obtained light curves of more than a billion sources, each with 50-1000 epochs per light curve in $g$ and $r$, and fewer in $i$. To be able to use the information contained in the light curves of variable sources for new scientific discoveries, an efficient and flexible framework is needed to classify them. In this paper, we introduce the methods and infrastructure which will be used to classify all ZTF light curves. Our approach aims to be flexible and modular and allows the use of a dynamical classification scheme and labels, continuously evolving training sets, and the use of different machine learning classifier types and architectures. With this setup, we are able to continuously update and improve the classification of ZTF light curves as new data becomes available, training samples are updated, and new classes need to be incorporated.

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arXiv2021

GPU-Accelerated Periodic Source Identification in Large-Scale Surveys: Measuring $P$ and $\dot{P}$

Many inspiraling and merging stellar remnants emit both gravitational and electromagnetic radiation as they orbit or collide. These gravitational wave events together with their associated electromagnetic counterparts provide insight about the nature of the merger, allowing us to further constrain properties of the binary. With the future launch of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), follow up observations and models are needed of ultracompact binary (UCB) systems. Current and upcoming long baseline time domain surveys will observe many of these UCBs. We present a new fast periodic object search tool capable of searching for generic periodic signals based on the Conditional Entropy algorithm. This new implementation allows for a grid search over both the period ($P$) and the time derivative of the period ($\dot{P}$). To demonstrate the usage of this tool, we use a small, hand-picked subset of a UCB population generated from the population synthesis code \cosmic, as well as a custom catalog for varying periods at fixed intrinsic parameters. We simulate light curves as likely to be observed by future time domain surveys by using an existing eclipsing binary light curve model accounting for the change in orbital period due to gravitational radiation. We find that a search with $\dot{P}$ values is necessary for detecting binaries at orbital periods less than $\sim$10 min. We also show it is useful in finding and characterizing binaries with longer periods, but at a higher computational cost. Our code is called gce (GPU-Accelerated Conditional Entropy). It is available at https://github.com/mikekatz04/gce.

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arXiv2021

On the nature of GW190814 and its impact on the understanding of supranuclear matter

The observation of a compact object with a mass of $2.50-2.67M_{\odot}$ on August 14, 2019, by the LIGO Scientific and Virgo collaborations (LVC) has the potential to improve our understanding of the supranuclear equation of state. While the gravitational-wave analysis of the LVC suggests that GW190814 likely was a binary black hole system, the secondary component could also have been the heaviest neutron star observed to date. We use our previously derived nuclear-physics-multimessenger astrophysics framework to address the nature of this object. Based on our findings, we determine GW190814 to be a binary black hole merger with a probability of $>99.9\%$. Even if we weaken previously employed constraints on the maximum mass of neutron stars, the probability of a binary black hole origin is still $\sim 81\%$. Furthermore, we study the impact that this observation has on our understanding of the nuclear equation of state by analyzing the allowed region in the mass-radius diagram of neutron stars for both a binary black hole or neutron star--black hole scenario. We find that the unlikely scenario in which the secondary object was a neutron star requires rather stiff equations of state with a maximum speed of sound $c_s\geq \sqrt{0.6}$ times the speed of light, while the binary black hole scenario does not offer any new insight.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Multi-messenger Bayesian parameter inference of a binary neutron-star merger

The combined detection of a binary neutron-star merger in both gravitational waves (GWs) and electromagnetic (EM) radiation spanning the entire spectrum -- GW170817 / AT2017gfo / GRB170817A -- marks a breakthrough in the field of multi-messenger astronomy. Between the plethora of modeling and observations, the rich synergy that exists among the available data sets creates a unique opportunity to constrain the binary parameters, the equation of state of supranuclear density matter, and the physical processes at work during the kilonova and gamma-ray burst. We report, for the first time, Bayesian parameter estimation combining information from GW170817, AT2017gfo, GRB170817 to obtain truly multi-messenger constraints on the tidal deformability $\tildeΛ \in [302,860]$, total binary mass $M \in [2.722,2.751] M_\odot$, the radius of a $1.4$ solar mass neutron star $R \in [11.3,13.5] \rm km$ (with additional $0.2\ \rm km$ systematic uncertainty), and an upper bound on the mass ratio of $q \leq 1.27$, all at 90% confidence. Our joint novel analysis makes use of new phenomenological descriptions of the dynamical ejecta, debris disk mass, and remnant black hole properties, all derived from a large suite of numerical relativity simulations.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Multi-messenger constraints on the neutron-star equation of state and the Hubble constant

Observations of neutron-star mergers based on distinct messengers, including gravitational waves and electromagnetic signals, can be used to study the behavior of matter denser than an atomic nucleus, and to measure the expansion rate of the Universe described by the Hubble constant. We perform a joint analysis of the gravitational-wave signal GW170817 with its electromagnetic counterparts AT2017gfo and GRB170817A, and the gravitational-wave signal GW190425, both originating from neutron-star mergers. We combine these with previous measurements of pulsars using X-ray and radio observations, and nuclear-theory computations using chiral effective field theory to constrain the neutron-star equation of state. We find that the radius of a $1.4$ solar mass neutron star is $11.75^{+0.86}_{-0.81}\ \rm km$ at $90\%$ confidence and the Hubble constant is $66.2^{+4.4}_{-4.2}\ \rm km \,Mpc^{-1}\, s^{-1}$ at $1σ$ uncertainty.

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